《每日电讯报》：明星基金经理特里·史密斯称当今多数投资者过于短视
每年春天，随着新财年开始和 Isa 免税额度的刷新，当季投资点子的闸门便会开启。
Each spring, with the start of the new tax year and refreshed Isa allowances, the floodgates open for investment ideas of the season.
虽然投资者理想上应该逐一核查所投公司的基本面，但事实是几乎没有人有这份时间。
While investors would ideally check the fundamentals of each company they invest in, the truth is almost no-one has the time.
把这项核查工作外包给基金经理，是让投资组合引入主动管理的最简便、最有效的途径。
Outsourcing this work to a fund manager is the easiest and most effective way to introduce some active management into your portfolio.
虽然无法保证良好的投资业绩，但一些基金经理确实累积了超高回报，因而在自主投资者中赢得了大量拥趸。其中最突出的便是特里·史密斯。
While it is impossible to guarantee good investment performance, some fund managers have racked up such high returns that they have earned a huge following among DIY investors. Chief among them is Terry Smith.
他是伦敦金融城备受关注的基金经理之一，过去十年间为他 250 亿英镑的 Fundsmith Equity 基金的投资者带来了超过 336% 的回报。
He is one of the City's closely-followed fund managers, with a return of more than 336pc in the past decade for investors in his £25bn Fundsmith Equity fund.
然而近几个月来，该基金的表现落后于全球股市。在这里，史密斯先生向《每日电讯报》理财版讲述了他的看法。
Yet in recent months the fund has underperformed global stock markets. Here, Mr Smith gives his side of the story to Telegraph Money.
你认为世界上最好的公司是哪家，为什么？
What do you think the best company in the world is, and why?
欧莱雅。它是全球领先的化妆品公司，资本回报率、利润率、现金流和收入增长都非常出色。
L'Oréal. It is the world's leading cosmetics company with great returns on capital, profit margins, cash flow and revenue growth.
它还有一个持股比例可观的创始家族，这有助于确保公司能做出真正有利于长远发展的决策。
It also has a founding family with a significant shareholding, which helps to ensure truly beneficial long-term decisions can be made.
这个家族非常明智，已经连续启用了三代非家族成员的首席执行官，每一位都极为出色。
The family has been smart enough to have three generations of non-family chief executives, all of whom have been outstanding.
它在数字营销、分销和中国市场方面的掌控力超过了其他任何大型化妆品公司。它也是可持续发展/ESG 领域的领导者，却从不虚张声势地标榜自己，而人们总是希望让自己看起来更好。
It has mastered digital marketing, distribution and China better than any other major cosmetics company. It is also a leader in sustainability/ESG without virtue signalling and people are always interested in making themselves look good.
欧莱雅在中国做对了什么，而雅诗兰黛又错在哪里？
How did L'Oréal go right in China where Estée Lauder went wrong?
欧莱雅在中国有本地生产，因此离终端市场近得多，能凭借明显更好的情报做出更快的反应。
It has local manufacturing and so is much closer to the end market and can react more quickly with seemingly better intel.
雅诗兰黛在欧洲以东没有任何生产设施。
Estée Lauder does not have any manufacturing east of Europe.
你在 Fundsmith Equity 做的哪笔投资最有力地证明了批评者是错的？
Which investment have you made at Fundsmith Equity that has most proved critics wrong?
Meta（前身为 Facebook）是最近的一笔。
Meta (formerly Facebook) is the most recent.
我们买入这只股票时遭遇了铺天盖地的批评。过去 15 个月里它上涨了超过 400%。
We faced a barrage of criticism when we bought the shares. They are up over 400pc in the past 15 months.
你认为被动投资为什么越来越流行？
Why do you think passive investing is becoming increasingly popular?
因为投资者很难找到优秀的主动管理者。
Because investors find it difficult to find good active managers.
毕竟，在任何时点，超过一半的主动管理者都会跑输指数，这是不言自明的道理，因为即使是表现一般的经理也要承担成本，而指数没有成本，被动基金的费用又非常低。
After all, it is axiomatic that more than half of active managers will underperform the index at any time since even the averagely performing manager incurs costs and the index has no costs, and passive funds have very low fees.
Fundsmith Equity 在一年、三年和五年期内的表现都不及其偏好的基准指数。为什么？
Fundsmith Equity has underperformed its preferred benchmark in one, three and five years. Why?
首先，在这五年期的头两年里，它实际上跑赢了基准。
First, it actually outperformed in the first two years of that five-year period.
其次，自 2021 年底利率开始上升以来，它面对着一个强劲的逆风，即我们所持有的这类高质量公司的估值被压低，因为它们的估值本来就偏高。
Second, from the period when interest rates began to rise in late 2021 it faced a strong headwind from the devaluation of high quality companies of the sort we own, as they are more highly valued.
就像长期债券在这种情况下跑输短期债券一样。这就是生活中的现实：没有任何策略能在所有市场环境下都跑赢。
Just like long bonds perform worse than short bonds in such conditions. This is simply a fact of life: no strategy outperforms in all market conditions.
最后，2023 年的问题在于市场表现集中在极少数公司身上。纳斯达克指数上涨超过 43%，而其中超过三分之二的涨幅仅由七只股票贡献——即所谓的“七巨头”。
Finally, in 2023 the problem was that performance was concentrated in very few companies. The Nasdaq delivered a return of more than 43pc, and more than two thirds of that return was delivered by just seven stocks – the so-called Magnificent Seven.
除非你持有其中大部分股票，且至少达到指数权重，否则很难跑赢，我们也没能做到。
Unless you owned most of them with at least an index weighting, it was difficult to outperform and we didn't.
我们很可能永远不会持有特斯拉——它是七巨头之一——而如果有人全部持有这七只股票，或许应该质疑一下他们的风险承受能力，因为七巨头中有六只在 2022 年跑输了，而七巨头中的宠儿英伟达在其历史上有过两次股价跌幅超过 80% 的经历。
We are unlikely ever to own Tesla, which is one of the Seven, and if anyone did own all of them you should perhaps question their risk appetite as six of the Seven underperformed in 2022 and Nvidia, the darling of the Seven, has had share price falls of more than 80pc twice in its life.
你在 Fundsmith Equity 做过什么让你后悔的投资决定吗？
Are there any investment decisions you have made at Fundsmith Equity that you regret?
没有更早买入苹果。
Not owning Apple earlier.
你认为当今投资者犯下的最常见错误是什么？
What do you think is the most common mistake that investors make today?
他们过于短视。
They are too short-term.
你是否会将自己的资金投资于与 Fundsmith 理念不同的其他投资风格或策略，以实现一定程度的分散？
Do you personally invest your money in other investment styles/strategies that are distinct from the Fundsmith philosophy for some diversification?
No.
No.
“全球”基金行业的平均费率约为 0.9%。大型基金可以收取更低的费用，比如 Scottish Mortgage 收取 0.34%。Fundsmith Equity 收取 1.04%。为什么？
The average fee in the “global” fund sector is around 0.9pc. Big funds can afford to charge lower, such as Scottish Mortgage at 0.34pc. Fundsmith Equity charges 1.04pc. Why?
Scottish Mortgage 是一只封闭式基金，与开放式基金不可比，后者需要基金经理应对资金流动，并且需要大量客户沟通，这些都是有成本的。
Scottish Mortgage is a closed-end fund, which is not comparable with an open-ended fund where the manager has to deal with flows and requires a lot more client liaison, which has a cost.
两者的费率根本没有可比性，流动性同样如此——你可以随时从 Fundsmith 拿回你的钱，这在 Scottish Mortgage 是做不到的，但维持这种流动性是有代价的。
The fees are simply not validly comparable and neither is the liquidity – you can have your money back any day from Fundsmith which you can't at Scottish Mortgage, but maintaining that liquidity has a price.
投资者不应纠结于费率，而应关注扣除费用后的业绩。你引用的费率并不是全貌。
Investors should not obsess about fees but rather about performance net of fees. The charges you cite are not the complete picture.
那基金产生的交易成本呢——这难道不会拖累业绩吗？
What about the cost of dealing incurred by the fund – isn't this a drag on performance?
我们的总投资成本为 1.05%，包括交易成本在内，只给我们的成本增加了 0.01 个百分点，相比大多数经理承担的交易成本只是极小的一部分，因为我们的投资组合换手率非常低。
Our total cost of investment at 1.05pc, including dealing costs, adds just 0.01pc to our costs which is a very small fraction of the dealing costs incurred by most managers because our portfolio turnover is so low.
Fundsmith 的大多数投资者通过平台或财富管理机构进行投资，支付 0.9% 的费用。直接投资者只需多付 10 个基点就能直接投资我们。
Most of Fundsmith's investors use a platform or wealth manager and pay 0.9pc. Direct investors pay only another 10 basis points to get direct access to us.
你有哪些公司在你的投资“观察名单”上？是什么阻止你买入它们？
Which companies are on your ‘watch list' for investments? What is stopping you from buying them?
我为什么要告诉你？
Why would I tell you that?
哪些投资者对 Fundsmith 策略的影响最大？
Which investors have been the biggest influence on the Fundsmith strategy?
查理·芒格、沃伦·巴菲特、唐·雅克特曼、汤姆·鲁索、安迪·布朗。
Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett, Don Yackhtman, Tom Russo, Andy Brown.
你认为未来十年哪些主题将主导市场叙事？
Which themes do you think are going to drive the market narrative over the next decade?
这不是我会去考虑的事情。
It is not something I think about.