2019 年股东大会 · 下午场
联合太平洋的利润率高于伯灵顿北方圣达菲
Union Pacific has higher profit margins than BNSF
沃伦·巴菲特好的。请各位就座,我们马上开始。看来我们准备好让格雷格提问了。
WARREN BUFFETTOK. If you'll take your seats, we'll proceed in a minute. And it looks like we're ready for Gregg.
格雷格·沃伦早上好,查理。我有一个关于铁路业务的后续问题。几乎从所有指标来看,伯灵顿北方圣达菲在 2018 年都表现扎实,全年营收增长 11.5%,超过其最大直接竞争对手联合太平洋 7.5% 的营收增幅,而且伯灵顿北方圣达菲在每节车厢平均收入和总运量上的增速都高于它最接近的同行。即便如此,伯灵顿北方圣达菲的盈利能力再次落后于联合太平洋,其经营比率改善了 130 个基点至 66.9%,而联合太平洋的比率仅改善了 120 个基点至 62.7%,进一步巩固了两家公司利润率之间超过 400 个基点的差距。您能解释一下是什么导致伯灵顿北方圣达菲和联合太平洋的盈利能力存在如此差异吗?理论上,两家规模相似的公司在美国西半部基本争夺同一客户群、同一类业务,我们不应该看到这么大的差距。另外,您提到伯灵顿北方圣达菲对精准时刻调度铁路运输持观望态度,我们之前也听到 GEICO 在车联网技术方面说过类似的话。我担心的是,伯灵顿北方圣达菲和联合太平洋的盈利水平差距现在有可能进一步拉大,因为联合太平洋最近已采用了某一版本的精准时刻调度铁路运输,他们最终可能借此在价格上变得更具竞争力。
GREGG WARRENGood morning, Charlie. I have a follow up on the railroad business. By nearly all measures, BNSF had a solid year in 2018, full-year revenue growth of 11 1/2 percent was better than the 7 1/2 percent topline growth at Union Pacific — which is BNSF's largest direct competitor — came up with, with Burlington Northern seeing both larger increases in average revenue per car unit and total volumes than its closest peer. Even so, Burlington Northern once again fell short of Union Pacific when it came to profitability, with its operating ratio declining 130 basis points to 66.9 percent, while Union Pacific's ratio fell only 120 basis points to 62.7, further cementing the spread that exists between the two companies' margins, at more than 400 basis points. Can you explain what is driving the difference in profitability between Burlington Northern and Union Pacific, as theoretically we should not see that wide of a spread between two similar-sized companies that are basically competing for the same business, with the same customers in the western half of the United States? And while you noted that Burlington Northern is in a wait and see mode with regards to precision-schedule railroading, we've kind of heard the same line historically with regards to GEICO's approach to telematics. And what worries me here is that the potential now exists for a much wider gap to emerge between profitability levels at Burlington Northern and Union Pacific, which has recently adopted a version of PSR some of which Union Pacific could eventually use to get more price competitive.
查理·芒格嗯,沃伦对这个问题比我清楚得多。我猜他们在费率计收上比我们稍微更卖力一些。不过沃伦,你来回答这个吧。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, Warren knows the answer to that a lot better than I do. My guess is that they work a little harder than we do at billing the rates. But Warren, you answer that one.
沃伦·巴菲特是的。嗯,确实,在北美六大铁路公司中,我们的每吨英里收入是最低的,这里面有一些原因——显然,很重要的原因——在于我们特定的运输货种之类。我们通常运距更长。但答案是——联合太平洋的利润率,他们总谈经营比率,但那个概念要追溯到州际商务委员会时期。本质上就是利润率,是税前、息前利润率。联合太平洋大概在 15 年前或更早一点的时候,一度可以说完全脱轨了。但他们后来做得很好——嗯,他们有很多定价偏低的煤炭合同,最终兑现得很不错,我们也是一样。但他们在费用控制方面也做得非常出色。伯灵顿北方圣达菲所拥有的经济特许权,并没有什么根本性的理由——我一直更喜欢西部的铁路公司多过东部的——差距不是特别大——但我认为,随着时间推移,西部的吨英里增长会好过东部铁路。而且我们拥有一些极其优良的线路,其中一部分在今年 3 月还被水淹了一阵子。(笑)我们非常关注联合太平洋的一举一动,这是分内之事。展望未来,我们并不是在把业务拱手让人。但事实上,过去几年他们的运营一直比我们更高效。就像我说的,我们看在眼里。他们裁撤了不少人,就在奥马哈这里。至于这对客运——或者说对货主满意度会有什么影响,我们会拭目以待。但我们正在非常仔细地用他们的表现来对标衡量我们自己。如果需要做出改变,我们会去做。我们在这门生意里拥有一项极其优质的资产。当初我买入时就说过,这是一笔持有百年的投资。它远不止百年。这是一项非常、非常根本的生意。我们拥有一项出色的经济特许权,我们的利润率理应与其他铁路公司看齐。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Well, it's true that we receive the lowest ton mile revenue of any of the six big railroads in North America, and there's some explanation for that — obviously, a significant explanation — in the particular types of hauls we have and that sort of thing. We have longer hauls, generally. But the answer — Union Pacific's profit margin, they talk about operating ratios, but that goes back to the Interstate Commerce Commission. It's really profit margin, pre-tax, pre-interest profit margin. And Union Pacific, at one time, probably 15 or maybe a little more years ago, they really went off the tracks, so to speak. But they've done a very good job of getting — well, they got a lot of underpriced coal contracts that worked out, as did we. But they've also — they've done a very good job on expenses. And there's no fundamental reason why the BNSF franchise — I always like the western railroads better than the eastern — not by a dramatic margin — but I think the west will do better in terms of ton miles over time than the eastern roads. And we've got some great routes, some of which were underwater in March for a while. (Laughs) We pay a lot of attention to what's going on at the Union Pacific, as we should. And the future, it's not like we're losing business to anybody. But they have been operating more efficiently, in effect, than we have during the last few years. And like I said, we take notice of it. They've cut a lot of people, right here in Omaha. And we'll see what that does in terms of passengers — or in terms of shipper satisfaction. But we are measuring ourselves very carefully against what they do. And if changes are needed, we'll do that. We've got a wonderful asset in that business. And when I bought it, I said it's for a hundred years. It's for a lot more than a hundred years. It is a very, very fundamental business. And we've got a wonderful franchise, and we should have margins comparable to other railroads. Charlie?
查理·芒格我对这块了解不多。
CHARLIE MUNGERI don't know much about it.
沃伦·巴菲特了解不多?(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTYou don't? (Laughter)
巴菲特:我很幸运能“掌控自己的时间”
Buffett: I'm lucky that I can "control my own time"
沃伦·巴菲特9 号站台。
WARREN BUFFETTStation 9.
现场股东嗨,沃伦和查理。我叫罗布·李(音),来自加拿大温哥华。两位能否跟我们分享一下,你们现在人生中最看重的是什么?谢谢。
AUDIENCE MEMBERHi, Warren and Charlie. My name is Rob Lee (PH) from Vancouver, Canada. Could you please share with us what you value the most in life now? Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特嗯——
WARREN BUFFETTWell —
查理·芒格我倒希望能再多拥有一点。(笑声和掌声)
CHARLIE MUNGERI'd like to have a little more of it. (Laughter and applause)
沃伦·巴菲特有两样东西是买不到的:时间和爱。这两样,我珍视很久了。我这一生非常、非常、非常幸运,能够极大程度地掌控自己的时间。查理也一直很珍视这一点。说到底,我们想要钱,主要是因为这样我们就可以做自己想做的一切——(笑)——在我们生活里。不是为了六栋房子或游艇之类的东西。呃,查理确实有艘船。但也没给我们带来多大好处。时间是很宝贵的。我们非常、非常幸运,所做的事情与体能强弱完全无关。这么说吧,我们这活,对两个身体日渐老去的人来说,堪称完美。我们能每天做自己热爱的事。我是说,钱能买到的,我几乎什么都可以做。但我做现在这些事,比做其他任何事都更有乐趣,而查理在设计宿舍。我是说,他过着有意思的生活,也为生活注入了很多。他如今每周读的书,还是比我一个月读的还多,而且他读过的东西全记得住。所以说,我们的日子好极了,但我们没有无限的时间。凡是能腾出时间来做自己喜欢的事——我们俩这一生都在最大化这一点——我们都尽力去做了。
WARREN BUFFETTIt's the two things you can't buy, time and love. And that, I value those for a long time. And I've been very, very, very lucky in life, in being able to control my own time to an extreme degree. Charlie's always valued that, too. That's why we really wanted to have money, was so we could do what we damn pleased, basically — (laughs) — in our life. It wasn't six houses or boats or anything. Well, Charlie's got a boat. But it doesn't do us that much good. But time is valuable. And we are very, very lucky to be in jobs where physical ability doesn't make any difference. And, you know, we've got the perfect job for a couple of guys with aging bodies. And we get to do what we love to do every day. I mean, I literally could do anything that money could buy, pretty much. And I'm having more fun doing what I do than doing anything else, and Charlie is designing dormitories. And I mean, he's got an interesting life, and he brings a lot to it. He still reads, you know, more books in a week than I get done in a month, and he remembers what he reads. So, we've got it very good, but we don't have unlimited time. And whatever we do to free up the time to do what we like to do — and we both maximize that in our lives — we do.
查理·芒格如果一个人能把自己花时间做的事,做起来确实乐在其中,那他就算是够幸运的了。这是一种福气。
CHARLIE MUNGERAnybody's lucky if he so that what he spends his time at, he really likes doing. That's a blessing.
沃伦·巴菲特是啊,我们这辈子好运多到难以置信。首先从出生在美国开始。顺便说一句,出生在加拿大也不错。我可不想冒犯任何人。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, we've had so much good luck in life. It sort of blows your mind. Starting with being born in the United States. And Canada would be fine too, incidentally. I don't want to offend anybody. (Laughter)
“我们的职责不是解释为什么持有一家公司的股票”
"We're not in the business of explaining why we own a stock"
沃伦·巴菲特好,卡罗尔?
WARREN BUFFETTOK, Carol?
卡罗尔·卢米斯这个问题来自梅奥诊所教育网站的布莱恩·尼尔(音)。他写道:“伯克希尔持有约 2000 亿美元公开交易股票。我很感谢伯克希尔披露持股,但我对缺少具体的业绩信息感到失望。既然投资上市公司是伯克希尔业务中如此重要的一部分,您为什么不每年告诉我们投资组合的表现如何呢?”
CAROL LOOMISThis question is from Brian Neal (PH), who writes from the Mayo Clinic Education Site. "Berkshire owns approximately 200 billion in publicly traded stocks. I appreciate the disclosure of Berkshire's holdings, but I am disappointed by the lack of specific performance information. "Since investing in publicly owned stocks is so much a part of Berkshire's business, why do you not tell us every year how our portfolio performed?"
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这个其实很容易算出来,它约占伯克希尔价值的 40%。但剩下 60% 是旗下企业。而且你看看前十大持股,我猜,在这十只股票之外剩下的部分大概不到——很可能不到伯克希尔价值的 10%。所以,我——再说一次——我们不是靠向别人解释为什么持有某只股票来吃饭的。我们不希望吸引别人来抢购这些股票。我们有一个股票投资组合,在这大约 2000 亿美元里,我想说至少有 1500 亿是在回购自身股票的公司,每年都在增加我们的持股比例。我们到底为什么要去告诉一大帮人出去买那些股票,好让我们——或者让公司替我们——最终花更高的价格去回购呢?我是说,人们看到自己的股票涨了会很开心。但如果我们打算长期持有某只股票,不管是美国银行、苹果还是任何大仓位,如果它们的股价在某些时段表现得很差,并且公司大举回购,那我们未来十年的收益会好得多。这跟我们自己直接买入完全一样,只不过是我们用——是他们在用我们的钱。但这个道理太基础了。我们又到底为什么要跑出去告诉全世界这些股票应该涨,好让他们有机会卖掉或干点别的,结果反而让我们自己受损呢?而且我们也不可能在这些股票上进进出出来获利。我们的持股是每季度申报的——我们的国内持股,前面也有人提到——每季度申报。但我们宁愿不告诉全世界我们持有的是什么,就像我们不愿意告诉他们我们在 NetJets 的策略是什么,或者我们打算对路博润做什么,或者我们在添加剂方面研发有什么更好的进展,或者我们打算在哪里给家具城开家新店一样。那是专有信息。我们必须披露一定量的信息,但我们肯定不会去向别人吹捧这些股票。至于计算我们投资组合的业绩,你可以取前十大或十二只股票,谁都能算。我是说,到年底时《华尔街日报》会刊登——所有报纸都会刊登一些东西——比如年初至今的回报率什么的。所以这是个很简单的计算。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTWell, obviously it could be calculated fairly easily, and it's about 40 percent of Berkshire's value. But 60 percent is the businesses. And if you look at the top ten stocks I would guess, you know, you're down to where beyond those ten stocks you're talking about less than — probably less than 10 percent of Berkshire's value. So, I — again — we're not in the business of explaining why we own a stock. We're not looking for people to compete to buy it. We have a portfolio of companies where I would say that, of that 200 billion or so, at least 150 billion of them are buying in their stock and increasing our interest every year. And why in the world should we want to tell a whole bunch of people to go out and buy those stocks so that we end up paying — or the company on our behalf — ends up paying more money for them? I mean, people get very happy when their stocks go up. But if we're going to own whatever, whether it's Bank of America, whether it's Apple, whether it's any of the big holdings, we will do considerably better in the next ten years if their stocks do terribly during certain periods and that they buy lots of stock in. It's just exactly like buying it ourselves, except we're using their — they're using our money. But it's so elementary. And why in the world would we want to go out and tell the world that these stocks should go up so that maybe they can sell or something when it costs us money? And we're not going to be able to move in and out of the stocks to our advantage. So, our holdings are filed quarterly — our domestic holdings, as it was pointed out earlier — filed quarterly. But we would rather not tell the world what we own, any more than we'd like to tell them what our strategy is at NetJets or what we're going to do with Lubrizol and what we're working on in the way of better advances in additives or whatever it may be, or where we plan to build a new store for the Furniture Mart or something. That's proprietary information. And we have to disclose a certain amount, but we're certainly not going to be touting the stocks to other people. In terms of calculating our performance, you can take the top ten or 12 stocks, and anybody could make the calculation. I mean, at the end of the year the Wall Street Journal runs — all the papers run something — where it says a year-to-date performance or something of the sort. So that's a simple calculation. Charlie?
查理·芒格我没什么可补充的。
CHARLIE MUNGERI've got nothing to add to that.
波音 737 MAX 坠机后,飞安国际的模拟器需求可能不会增加
FlightSafety probably won't get more demand for its simulators after Boeing MAX 737 crashes
沃伦·巴菲特好的,乔纳森。
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Jonathan.
乔纳森·布兰特从来没人问过有关飞安国际的问题,但鉴于 737 MAX 争议,今年这或许有点时事性。《纽约时报》采访了一些工程师,他们说波音在设计 MAX 时,有意让航空公司客户可以避免购买模拟器来培训飞行员。您预计全球监管和商业领域对 MAX 问题的反应,会带来对飞安国际模拟器需求的增加吗?另外,能否请更宽泛地谈谈飞安国际的竞争地位和增长前景?
JONATHAN BRANDTNo one's ever asked a question about FlightSafety, but perhaps this year it's somewhat topical given the 737 MAX controversy. The New York Times spoke to engineers who said that Boeing explicitly designed the MAX in a manner that allowed airline customers to avoid paying for simulators to train their pilots. Do you expect the worldwide regulatory and commercial response to the MAX's problems to result in increased demand for FlightSafety simulators? And could you please more generally discuss FlightSafety's competitive position and growth prospects?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,飞安国际——他们的专长是企业飞行员培训。比如,他们培训我们的 NetJets 飞行员。他们有一个配备模拟器的大型设施来做这件事。我不认为 737 MAX 这事会产生什么特别影响。我是说,我们——我不知道我们跟《财富》100 强中的多少家公司有业务往来,但比例相当高。这些公司都让飞行员在飞安国际接受培训,因为在那个领域,我们拥有别人无法比拟的人才和模拟器。查理,你是不是有位朋友,曾经想让阿尔·乌尔奇在他不该过关的时候放他过关?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, well, FlightSafety is — their specialty would be with corporate pilots. They train our NetJets pilots, for example. They have a major facility with simulators for that. I don't think what's happened with the 737 MAX will have any particular effect. I mean, we have — I don't know how many of the Fortune 100 companies that we do business with, but it's a very significant percentage. And they train their pilots with FlightSafety because we've got the talent and the simulators like nobody else has for that business. And Charlie, didn't you have that friend of yours that was trying to get Al Ueltschi to pass him when he shouldn't?
查理·芒格什么?
CHARLIE MUNGERWhat?
沃伦·巴菲特你还记得你朋友那个故事吧,他想让飞安国际——
WARREN BUFFETTYou remember that story of your friend that wanted to have FlightSafety —
查理·芒格哦,记得。
CHARLIE MUNGEROh yes.
沃伦·巴菲特对,你不如跟大家讲讲?我是说,阿尔·乌尔奇,他用几千美元和一台小小的视觉模拟器,大概是在拉瓜迪亚机场起家创办了飞安国际。他确实非常在乎挽救生命。他在这个过程中赚了很多钱,但他终其一生都在致力于扎扎实实地培养更好的飞行员,大幅降低事故发生的几率。这对他来说是一种使命。那种精神今天仍在延续。而且,如我之前所说,我们有一个——我无法告诉你具体比例,我不知道,但我知道比例非常高——肯定在企业飞行培训业务中占了大部分。我们也有政府业务,有一些航空公司业务等等。但我不预期飞行培训业务会发生什么大的变化。不过跟他们讲讲你那位朋友的故事吧,查理。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, why don't you tell them? I mean, Al Ueltschi, who started FlightSafety with a few thousand dollars and a little visual simulator, or whatever it may have been at, LaGuardia, I mean, he really cared about saving lives. And he made a lot of money in the process, but he was dedicated throughout his lifetime to truly train better pilots and reduce the chance of accidents dramatically. It was a mission with him. And that spirit still continues. And as I say we've got a — I can't tell you the percentages, I don't know, but I know it's very high — of certainly the corporate business. We have government business, we have some airline businesses and all of that. But I don't expect any great change in the flight training business. But tell them about your friend, Charlie.
查理·芒格嗯,当然,那些测试有人以优异成绩通过,也有人只是勉强通过。我的一个朋友就刚刚勉强及格,他们打电话来告诉了我。这就是(听不清)这份生意的本质。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, of course, people pass those tests with flying colors, and then some of them just barely pass. And one of my friends just barely passed and they called me and told me. It's (inaudible) of the business.
沃伦·巴菲特飞安国际不会——
WARREN BUFFETTFlightSafety would not —
查理·芒格他们每件事都很认真。
CHARLIE MUNGERThey care about everything.
沃伦·巴菲特他们很认真。
WARREN BUFFETTThey care.
查理·芒格他们关注细节。
CHARLIE MUNGERThey watch the details.
沃伦·巴菲特他们很在意。那些模拟器可能造价超过 1000 万美元,我的意思是,就是——它们显然是专门为某一种机型设计的。你可能会觉得有意思,在 NetJets,我们的飞行员只飞一种机型。我的意思是——大多数包机公司和其他公司,我敢肯定它们——顺便说一句,我觉得他们也能飞其他机型,诸如此类,但我们只让他们飞一种机型。而且我们每年给他们提供最大量的培训。当我在 1998 年左右为伯克希尔收购这家公司时,说实话,我显然有点担心,因为会有相当比例的朋友会使用它,你懂吧,你不希望出任何事。我自己也用,我的家人用,我们的经理们用。没有谁比我们更关心安全了。但除了 NetJets 之外,我不觉得——这确实是一流的运营。
WARREN BUFFETTThey care. And those simulators can cost over $10 million, I mean, just — and they're dedicated, obviously, to a given model of plane. You might find it interesting, at NetJets our pilots only fly one model. I mean — most charters and all those, I'm sure they — and incidentally, I think they could fly other models and all that, but we just want them to be flying one model. And we give them the maximum amount of training annually. And it's — when I bought the company for Berkshire in, I think it was 1998 or thereabouts, you know, the thought obviously bothered me that I would have a significant percentage of people who would be friends of mine that were using it, and you know, you'd hate to have anything happen. I use it, my family uses it, our managers use it. And there's nobody that cares more about safety. But I don't see — other than at NetJets — it's a first-class operation.
查理·芒格它们从未造成任何乘客死亡。有一次,一名飞行员在 16000 英尺高空中撞上了一架滑翔机,那次降落相当困难。
CHARLIE MUNGERThey've never killed a passenger. They had one pilot who hit a glider at 16,000 feet, and it was kind of a difficult landing.
沃伦·巴菲特那不只是困难——
WARREN BUFFETTIt was more than difficult landing —
查理·芒格它们从未导致——那是个女飞行员,嗯。
CHARLIE MUNGERThey've never killed a — it was a woman pilot, yeah.
沃伦·巴菲特她第二天就又飞了。副驾驶暂时停飞了一段时间。但那女飞行员最后几乎是让操纵面板贴在腿上,因为那个家伙关了他的电池,撞上了我们的一架霍克飞机。她只有一次机会对准跑道,然后她成功降落了。我们那里的一些培训和飞行员很出色。如果你坐 NetJets 的飞机,你应该点名要她。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTAnd she was flying the next day. The copilot was kind of taken out of operation for a while. But this woman ended up almost with the control panel in her lap because this guy turned off his battery and hit one of our Hawkers. And she had one shot at the runway and she brought it in. And we've had some remarkable training and pilots there. You should ask for her if you're flying on NetJets. (Laugher)
巴菲特谈科技股投资:“我们不会因为别人说这是好事就一头扎进去”
Buffett on tech investing: "We won't go into something because somebody else tells us it's a good thing to do"
沃伦·巴菲特10 号席位。
WARREN BUFFETTStation 10.
现场股东巴菲特先生,芒格先生,你们好。我叫达芙妮,来自纽约,今年九岁。我很兴奋能来参加伯克希尔股东大会,这是我第三次来了。
AUDIENCE MEMBERMr. Buffett and Mr. Munger, hi. My name is Daphne. I'm from New York and I'm nine years old. And I'm excited to be at the Berkshire meeting, and this is my third year.
沃伦·巴菲特哇。(掌声)你现在应该已经富有了吧。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTWow. (Applause) You should be rich by now. (Laughter)
现场股东你经常说,投资者最好能识别出拥有宽阔护城河的企业,而护城河后面的城堡由一位值得信赖、能做出明智决策的国王或王后掌管。过去,你用这个思路投资了拥有世界级强势品牌的企业,比如可口可乐、美国运通和喜诗糖果,以及帮助这些品牌保护并拓宽护城河的媒体公司,比如大都会、美国广播公司和《华盛顿邮报》。过去,你通常也避免投资科技公司,指出科技变化太快,而且很难建立这方面的能力圈。如今,我们似乎生活在一个世界上一些最主导的公司都是科技公司的时代。美国这里有亚马逊、谷歌、Facebook 和微软这样的强大平台,中国有阿里巴巴和腾讯。这些公司都有宽阔的护城河、强大的品牌,并由杰出的企业家领导。
AUIENCE MEMBERYou have often said that investors are well-served by identifying businesses with a wide moat, where the castle behind the moat is run by a king or queen who can be trusted to make good decisions. In the past, you have applied this advice by investing in businesses with world class strong brands, such as Coke, American Express, and See's, as well as media companies that has helped these brands protect and widen their moats, such as Cap Cities, ABC, and the Washington Post. In the past, you have also generally avoided investing in technology companies, pointing out how quickly technology changes and how hard it is to build a circle of competence in it. Today, we seem to be in a world where some of the most dominant companies in the world are technology companies. And we have built powerful platforms, such as Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft in America, and Alibaba and Tencent in China. These companies all have wide moats, strong brands, and are led by brilliant — entrepreneurs.
沃伦·巴菲特说得不错。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTThat's good. (Laughter)
现场股东我的问题是:如果伯克希尔要坚守其投资于宽阔护城河和强大品牌——尤其是那些资本效率高的公司——的传统,那么你认为伯克希尔是否需要扩大它的投资视野,纳入更多这些领先的科技平台?换句话说,你相信你需要调整你的宽阔护城河和强大品牌模型,去拥抱、而不是回避科技吗?(掌声)
AUDIENCE MEMBERMy question to you is this: if Berkshire is to honor its tradition of investing in wide moats and strong brands, and especially in companies that are also capital efficient, do you think that Berkshire needs to expand its investing lens to include more of these leading technology platforms? In other words, do you believe that you need to adapt your model of wide moats and strong brands to embrace, not avoid, technology? (Applause)
查理·芒格我觉得答案可能是“也许”。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERI think the answer is maybe. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特我觉得答案应该是让她进董事会,那样会大幅拉低平均年龄。我们就不会受到那么多批评了。你说得非常对,我们确实喜欢护城河,我们曾经能在报纸——那些城里唯一的报纸——或电视台里识别出它们,因为我们认为那些电视台有主导地位,觉得它们的广告定价偏低。我们有时也在品牌中发现。确实,在科技世界里,如果你能建起一条护城河,那可能价值连城。但在很多情况下,我并没有自信到认为自己是判断这个的最佳人选。在任何特定时间,弄清楚谁在赢、他们的业务是什么并不难,但有大量的人比我更了解这个游戏。我们不想在不懂的游戏里尝试取胜。我们可能会聘请一些人,比如泰德(韦施勒)和托德(库姆斯),他们在理解某些投资领域方面比我强,甚至可能比查理还强。但原则没有变。你说得对,一些老的公司已经失去了护城河,你也说得对,将来会有拥有它们、价值巨大的公司。我们希望能时不时识别出一个。但我们不会——我们仍然会待在我们自认为懂行的领域里。显然,即使在那里面,我们也会犯错。但我们不会因为别人说这是件好事就一头扎进去。我的意思是,我们不会把你的钱外包给别人的判断。你可以拿着你的钱追随别人的判断,但我们干的不是那种以为请十个在某些领域有专长的人就能带来优异投资结果的生意。而且我们确实担心那样会浪费很多钱。所以,我们会尽力扩大伯克希尔员工的能力圈,以免错过太多。但我们将来会错过很多。我们过去就错过了很多。关键是要找到那些我们命中率会很高的东西。如果我们错过了最大的那些,其实并不会困扰我们,只要我们投出去的钱结果还不错。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTI think the answer is to put her on the board and it'll bring down the average age enormously. We won't get criticized as much. You're exactly right, in that we do like moats, and we used to be able to identify them in a newspaper that was the only newspaper in town, or in TV stations where we felt the dominant position, we felt the product was underpriced in terms of advertising. We saw it in brands, sometimes. And it is true that in the tech world, if you can build a moat, it can be incredibly valuable. I've not felt the confidence that I was the best one to judge that in many cases. It wasn't hard to figure out who was winning at any given time or what their business was about, but there were a huge number of people that knew more about the game than I did. And we don't want to try and win at a game we don't understand. We may hire people, such as Ted (Weschler) and Todd (Combs), that are better at understanding certain areas of investing than I am, or maybe even Charlie is. But the principles haven't changed. You're right that some of the old ones have lost their moat and you're right that there are going to be companies in the future that have them that will be enormously valuable. And we hope we can identify one every now and then. But we won't — we'll still stay within where we think we know what we're doing. And obviously, we'll make mistakes even within that area. But we won't go into something because somebody else tells us it's a good thing to do. I mean, we are not going to subcontract your money to somebody else's judgment. You can take your money and follow somebody else's judgment, but we're not in the business of thinking that if we hire ten people with specialties in this area or that, that it will lead to superior investment results. And we do worry that we could blow a lot of money that way. So, we'll do our best to enlarge the circle of competence of the people at Berkshire so that we don't miss so many. But we'll miss a lot in the future. We missed a lot in the past. The main thing to do is to find things where our batting average is going to be high. And if we miss the biggest ones, that really doesn't bother us, as long as the things we do with money work out OK. Charlie?
查理·芒格嗯,我认为我们仍然拥有大量护城河宽阔的公司,其中很多都非常——有些是工业品牌,在我们所在的利基市场中强得惊人。所以,伯克希尔的股东不必担心我们只是一大摊不赚钱之类的东西。但在新领域,我们并没有光彩照人。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I think we've still got an awful lot of companies with big moats, and a lot of them are very — and some are industrial brands that are just incredibly strong in the niches we're in. So, Berkshire shareholders don't need to worry about we're just one big morass of unprofitability or anything like that. But we have not covered ourselves with glory in the new fields.
沃伦·巴菲特是的。但我们最后不会全都沦为做马鞭的,完全不会。这是个非常好的问题,也是我们始终关注的重点。我希望——
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. We won't end up all in buggy whips, though, or anything. But it's a very good question, and it's what we focus on all the time. And I hope —
查理·芒格我们正在努力改进。
CHARLIE MUNGERWe're trying to improve.
沃伦·巴菲特我们希望明年能在这里见到你第四次来参会。
WARREN BUFFETTAnd we hope we see you back here for your fourth next year.
“最终,伯克希尔要经得起时间的考验”
"In the end, Berkshire should prove itself over time"
沃伦·巴菲特贝基?(掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTBecky? (Applause)
贝基·奎克这个问题来自斯图尔特·博伊德(Stuart Boyd),他是一位来自澳大利亚的化学工程师。他问:“在目前这个阶段,伯克希尔对激进投资者来说是一个极为难以得手的目标,原因有三。第一,沃伦,你的持股比例很大;第二,股东们认识到,这家公司在伯克希尔这顶保护伞下整体运营,比分拆出售更有价值;第三,单是伯克希尔庞大的体量或市值,对绝大多数激进投资者就构成了一道进入壁垒。沃伦和查理,在你们的持股被全部分配出去以后,伯克希尔是否会更容易受到激进投资者的攻击?我猜这件事应该不至于让你们夜不能寐,但还是觉得值得一问。”
BECKY QUICKThis question comes from Stuart Boyd (PH), who's a chemical engineer from Australia. He says, "Currently Berkshire would be incredibly difficult for an activist investor to target, because number one, Warren, your ownership stake is large. Number two, shareholders appreciate the business is more valuable operating under the Berkshire umbrella rather than being sold off in pieces. "And number three, the sheer size or market capitalization of Berkshire is an entry barrier for most activist investors. "Warren and Charlie, after your ownership has been completely distributed, will Berkshire be more vulnerable to activist investors? I'm guessing this isn't something that keeps you up at night, but thought it was worth asking."
查理·芒格不会,这大概得在我死后好几十年才会发生。
CHARLIE MUNGERNo, it's going to happen quite a few decades after my death.
沃伦·巴菲特是的。这——
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. It —
查理·芒格我想,应该不会对我造成太多困扰。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERI don't think I'll be bothered much by it. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特不,任何事都有可能发生。只是概率很低。鉴于我的股票逐渐被分配出去的方式,以及其他股票当前的持有结构,很多年内这件事都不可能发生。但最终,伯克希尔要经得起时间的考验。我的意思是,世上没有什么是不朽的。它值得以当前的形式延续下去。它有很多优势,只有在同一个实体内才能发挥到极致,这点人们还没有完全理解。我认为,如果有人觉得把某个业务分拆出来就能获得高市盈率,从而释放了价值,那纯属胡说。我的意思是,这层价值本来就已经体现出来了。分拆后短时间内,股价也许能多出 3% 或 5%,但把时间拉长,我们希望留住那些极好的生意。不过到头来,我认为我们的文化会一直保持独一无二。我认为,我们能够做到别人做不到的事情。我认为,把它们聚在同一个屋檐下,随着时间推移,优势很可能会相当显著。果真如此,那就没有哪个激进投资者能将它接管。如果这一模式因为某些原因,在很长一段时间里确实行不通,那自然就会有别的事情发生。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTNo, anything could happen. It's a low probability. It can't happen for a lot of years, in terms of the way my stock gets distributed and in terms of the way other stock is held. But in the end, Berkshire should prove itself over time. I mean, there are no perpetuities. And it deserves to be continued in its present form. It has a lot of attributes that are maximized by being in one entity, which people don't fully understand. I think if you spin off something that would command a high PE that therefore value has been unlocked, which is totally nonsense. I mean, it's already built in. One day out, you know, you might have an extra 3 percent or 5 percent in price, but over the years, we want to keep the wonderful businesses. But eventually I think the culture will remain one of a kind. I think that we will be able to do things other people can't do. I think that the advantages of having them in one spot will likely be significant over time. And if that happens, then no activist is going to take it over. And if the model doesn't work for some reason over a long period of time, then something else should happen. Charlie?
查理·芒格没什么要补充的了。
CHARLIE MUNGERNothing more.
沃伦·巴菲特好。
WARREN BUFFETTOK.
GEICO 与 Progressive 竞争之际,正着力改善其赔付率
GEICO trying to improve its loss ratio as it competes with Progressive
沃伦·巴菲特杰伊。
WARREN BUFFETTJay.
杰伊·盖尔布这个问题是关于 GEICO 的。Progressive 目前是主要车险公司中市场份额增长最快的,靠的是它同时在直销和独立代理渠道都有布局,加上现在又把车险和房主险捆绑在一起销售。面对竞争威胁,GEICO 打算如何应对,才能保住第二大车险公司的地位?希望阿吉特(贾恩)或者 GEICO 的管理层也能就这个话题谈谈。谢谢。
JAY GELBThis question is on GEICO. Progressive is gaining the most market share among the major auto insurers, based on its presence in the direct and independent agency channels, as well as now bundling its auto and homeowners insurance coverage. How does GEICO plan on responding to competitive threats so that it can retain its place as the second-largest auto insurer? I was hoping we could also hear on this topic from Ajit (Jain) or GEICO's management. Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特好。Progressive 是一家经营得非常好的公司。GEICO 也是一家经营得非常好的公司。我认为,在今后很长一段时间里,其他车险公司的市场份额都将难以避免地被这两家抢走。不过,你看,我觉得——我很久很久以来一直认为,Progressive 一直经营得相当好。他们有很强的增长意愿。有时候他们会稍微学学我们,有时候我们也会稍微学学他们。我想,五年后、十年后依然会是这种局面。我们房主险的销量也很大。我们做的是代理安排。我们以前是自己承保的,直到安德鲁飓风那次之后,就做了一个决定——当时公司不由我们控制——但那个决定就是,房主险这门生意,基本上,你一年可能亏掉前面 25 年赚到的钱,而且它的浮存金没有车险那么大。于是,我们就成了一家把客户房主险需求转介绍给其他几家大型、稳健机构的公司。对我们来说,大头始终是车险。今年一季度,我们净增了大约 34 万张保单,跟 Progressive 之外的任何一家比,都会相当亮眼。这个增量比去年高不少,但没有两年前那么好。利润率在 9 个点左右。所以,我对 GEICO 的感觉极好,我是说,托尼(奈斯利)和他的团队在那里所打造的成果堪称完美,但我也觉得——我们一股 Progressive 都没持有,但我认为 Progressive 是一家极为优秀的公司,我们会关注他们做什么,他们也会关注我们做什么。我们不妨看看,五年或者十年之后,我们和 Progressive,谁会率先超过 State Farm。查理?哦,阿吉特,你想说说吗?
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Progressive is a very well-run business. GEICO is a very well-run business. And I think they will, for a long time, be the two companies that the rest of the auto insurance industry has trouble not losing share to. But there's, you know, I think — I've always thought for a long, long time, Progressive has been very well run. They have an appetite for growth. Sometimes they copy us a little, sometimes we copy them a little. And I think that'll be true five years from now and 10 years from now. And we sell substantial amounts of homeowners insurance. We have an agency arrangement with that. We were in the business of writing it ourselves, until Hurricane Andrew, when a decision was made — we didn't control it then — but the decision was made that the homeowners, essentially, you could lose as much in one year as you made in the previous 25 years. And the float isn't as large. So, we became a company that placed our customers' desire for homeowners with several other large and solid organizations. The big thing is auto insurance. And we grew in the first quarter about 340,000 policies, net, which will look quite good compared to anybody but Progressive. And that was quite a bit more than last year, but not as good as two years ago. And the profit margin was in the nine-point area. So, I feel extremely good about GEICO, I mean, what has been built there by Tony (Nicely) and his people is perfect, but I would feel fine — We don't own any Progressive, but I think that Progressive is an excellent company, and we will watch what they do, and they will watch what we do. And we will see, five years from now or 10 years from now, which one of us passes State Farm first. Charlie? Oh, and Ajit, would you like?
阿吉特·贾恩嗯,承保利润实际上取决于两个主要变量。一个是费用率,另一个是赔付率,这里不展开讲太多技术细节。在费用率方面,GEICO 相对 Progressive 有显著优势,幅度大约在 7 个点左右。在赔付率方面,Progressive 做得比 GEICO 好得多,我想他们对 GEICO 有大约 12 个点的优势。所以,净下来,Progressive 领先大约 5 个点。GEICO 非常清楚自己在赔付率上承受的这个劣势,他们正高度专注于尽快弥合这个差距。他们手头有几个项目在推进,而且,你知道,有些时期 GEICO 是领先 Progressive 的。眼下,Progressive 领先 GEICO。但我希望他们能在赔付率这边赶上来,同时继续保持费用率优势。谢谢。
AJIT JAINWell, the underwriting profit is really a function of two major variables. One is the expense ratio and the other is the loss ratio, without getting too technical. GEICO has a significant advantage over Progressive when it comes to the expense ratio, to the extent of about seven points or so. On the loss ratio side, Progressive does a much better job than GEICO does. They have, I think, about a 12-point advantage over GEICO. So, net-net, Progressive is ahead by about five points. GEICO is very aware of this disadvantage on the loss ratio that they are suffering, and they're very focused on trying to bridge that gap as quickly as they can. They have a few projects in place, and, you know, sometimes GEICO is ahead of Progressive. Right now, Progressive is ahead of GEICO. But I'm hopeful they'll catch up on the loss ratio side and maintain the expense ratio advantage as well. Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特GEICO 一直在获取市场份额,基本上——我得查一下确切数字——但几乎自托尼接手以来,年年如此。我敢下重注赌 GEICO 在未来五年会继续扩大市场份额,而且我认为今年肯定也会。所以,这是一家相当出色的企业。但——Progressive 也是一家相当出色的企业。我们会——正如阿吉特所说,我们在费用上有优势,而且我们会继续保持这个优势。接下来的问题是,我们是否——他们在风险定价上有一套极为精密的体系。问题在于,我们会不会在赔付率上把那 5 个点——或者 6 个点——又还回去。我们在这方面非常努力,但我相信他们也在非常努力地改进自己的系统。所以,这——在某种程度上,这是一场两匹马之间的比赛,而我们这匹马相当不错。
WARREN BUFFETTGEICO has gained market share, essentially — I'd have to look at the figures for sure — but virtually every year since Tony took over. And I would bet significant money that GEICO increases its market share in the next five years. And I think it will, for sure, this year. So, it is a terrific business. And — but Progressive is a terrific business. And we'll — as Ajit says, we've got the advantage in expenses, and we will have an advantage in expenses. And then the question is, are we — They have a very sophisticated way of pricing business. And the question is whether we give some of that five points back — or six points back — in terms of loss ratio. We are working very hard at that, but I'm sure they're working very hard too to improve their system. So, it's a — to some extent it's a two-horse race, and we've got a very good horse.
查理·芒格不过沃伦,世事大体如此,偶尔总有人在某件事上比我们略胜一筹。
CHARLIE MUNGERBut Warren, in the nature of things, every once in a while, somebody's a little better at something than we are.
沃伦·巴菲特哈。你注意到了。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTHa. You've noticed. (Laughter)
查理·芒格是啊,我注意到了。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. I noticed.
沃伦·巴菲特是啊。在很多行业里,我能接受当第二。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. I'd settle for second place in a lot of the businesses.
尽量拓展能力圈,但要如实认清它的边界
Try to have a big circle of competence but be realistic about its perimeter
沃伦·巴菲特好,11 号站。
WARREN BUFFETTOK, station 11.
现场股东巴菲特先生、芒格先生,感谢你们回答我的问题。我叫费罗兹·卡尤姆(Feroz Qayyum),来自加拿大密西沙加,现居纽约。我的问题是:在构建自己的能力圈方面,如何才能最好地复制你们的成功?考虑到当今的投资环境比你们起步时竞争激烈得多,在构建能力圈的过程中,你们会采取什么不同的做法(如果真有什么不同的话)?你们仍会搭建一个覆盖面极广的通才框架吗?还是会建立一个深得多但更集中的聚焦点,比如聚焦于特定行业、特定市场,甚至特定国家?如果是后者,哪些领域会吸引你们?谢谢。
AUDIENCE MEMBERMr. Buffett and Mr. Munger, thank you for taking my question. My name is Feroz Qayyum and I'm from Mississauga in Canada, and now live in New York. My question is how to best emulate your success in building your circle of competence. Given the environment today in investing is a lot more competitive than when you started out, what would you do differently, if anything at all, when building your circle? Would you still build a very broad, generalist framework? Or would you build a much deeper but narrower focus, say on industries, markets, or even a country? And if so, which ones would interest you? Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,你说得对,现在比我起步时竞争激烈得多。我刚开始的时候,真的可以拿起穆迪工业手册和穆迪银行与金融手册,一页接一页地翻,至少把每家公司都扫一眼,想一想哪些可能值得多想一下。这很——很重要——我就是会做大量阅读。我会争取对尽可能多的生意多学一点,然后试着找出哪些生意我真的拥有某些重要的认知和理解,而这些认知很可能与绝大多数竞争对手不同。我也会试着找出哪些生意是我理解不了的,然后专注于拥有尽可能大的能力圈,同时也专注于尽量如实地看清自己能力圈的边界在哪里。我在 1951 年 1 月见到(GEICO 高管)洛里默·戴维森(Lorimer Davidson)时,我就明白自己能搞懂保险。我是说,在那个星期六,和他相处的那三四个小时里,他讲的东西对我来说极其有道理。于是,我深挖了进去,我能理解它。我的头脑在那个方面运转得很好。我不觉得自己能理解零售业。我唯一干过的相关事情就是在查理也待过的那家杂货店打工,我们俩都没怎么学到零售的门道,只发现这活儿比我们想要的更辛苦。你也得做同样的事,而且你现在面对的竞争要激烈得多。但如果你能在一个哪怕比较小的领域里,比别人知道得更多,同时你没有那种频繁行动的冲动,就只是等到赔率对你极其有利的时候才出手——那这仍是一场很有意思的游戏,只是比过去更难了。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, well, you're right. It's much more competitive now than when I started. And you would — when I started, I literally could take the Moody's industrial manual and the Moody's banks and financial manual and I could go through page by page, at least run my eyes over every company and think about which ones I might think more about. It's — it's important — I would just do a whole lot of reading. I'd try and learn as much as I could about as many businesses, and I would try to figure out which ones I really had some important knowledge and understanding that was probably different than, overwhelmingly, most of my competitors. And I would also try and figure out which ones I didn't understand, and I would focus on having as big a circle as I could have, and also focus on being as realistic as I could about where the perimeters of my circle of competence were. I knew when I met (GEICO executive) Lorimer Davidson in January of 1951, I could get insurance. I mean, what he said made so much sense to me in the three or four hours I spent with him on that Saturday. So, I dug into it and I could understand it. My mind worked well in that respect. I didn't think I could understand retailing. All I'd done is work for the same grocery store that Charlie had, and neither one of us learned that much about retailing, except it was harder work than we liked. And you've got to do the same thing, and you've got way more competition now. But if you get to know even about a relatively small area more than the other people do, and you don't feel the compulsion to act too often, you just wait till the odds are strongly in your favor. It's still a very interesting game. It's harder than it used to be. Charlie?
查理·芒格嗯,我认为对绝大多数人来说,正确的策略是专业化。没人愿意看一个半是肛肠科大夫、半是牙医的医生,是吧?(笑声)所以,取得成功的常规路径是窄幅专业化。沃伦和我确实没有走这条路。我们之所以没这么做,是因为我们更喜欢另一种类型的活动。但我想我们不太会建议别人也这么干。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I think the great strategy, for the great mass of humanity, is to specialize. Nobody wants to go to a doctor that half-proctologist and half-dentist, you know? (Laughter) And so, the ordinary way to succeed is to narrowly specialize. Warren and I really didn't do that. And that — and we didn't because we prefer the other type of activity. But I don't think we could recommend it to other people.
沃伦·巴菲特是啊,我们那个年代,寻宝的味道稍浓一些,当时找到宝贝也容易——
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, a little more treasure hunting in our day, and it was easy to spot the treasures —
查理·芒格我们把它做成了,但这也多少有点运气的成分。
CHARLIE MUNGERWe made it work, but it was kind of a lucky thing.
沃伦·巴菲特嗯。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah.
查理·芒格这不是标准路线。
CHARLIE MUNGERIt's not the standard way to go.
沃伦·巴菲特至少我理解最透的生意,其实是保险。我是说——而且我那时几乎没什么竞争。你知道吗,我去过宾夕法尼亚州哈里斯堡的保险监管部门。我记得有一次开车到那里,就是为了查一家宾夕法尼亚的公司。那个年代你还无法在互联网上查到所有这些信息。我走进去,问起某家公司,工作人员说:“你是第一个来问这家公司的人。”信息量也不大。我还去过休斯敦街——我想他们是这么叫的——的标普图书馆。我会走上去,索要各种冷僻的资料。那里一个人都没有,他们有一大堆桌子,你可以坐在那儿细细翻查。所以,那时候竞争要少得多。不过,哪怕你只把一件事搞得很透,总有一天它会给你带来优势。你知道,正如 IBM 的老托马斯·沃森(Tom Watson Sr.)说的那样:“我不是天才,但我在几个点上很精明,我就守在那些点附近。”查理和我基本上就是这么做的。我想这大概也是你能做到的。但你要自己去找到那些点——
WARREN BUFFETTThe business, at least I best understood, actually was insurance. I mean — and I had very little competition. You know, I went to the insurance department in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. I remember one time I drove there just to check on some Pennsylvania company. And this is when you couldn't get all this information on the internet. And I went in and I asked about some company, and the guy said, "You're the first one that's ever asked about that company." And there wasn't a lot. I went over to the Standard and Poor's library on Houston — Houston — Street, I guess they call it. And I would go up there and ask for all this obscure information. And there wasn't anybody sitting around there. They had a whole bunch of tables that you could set and examine things through. So, there was less competition. But if you know even one thing very well, it'll give you an edge at some point. You know, it's what Tom Watson Sr. said at IBM, you know. "I'm no genius, but I'm smart in spots and I stay around those spots." And that's basically what Charlie and I try and do. And I think that's probably what you can do. But you'll find those spots in —
查理·芒格是啊,我们在好几个领域都这么做了。这不容易。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, we did it in several fields. That's hard.
沃伦·巴菲特我们也有几次被整得很惨。
WARREN BUFFETTAnd we got our head handed to us a few times, too.
伯克希尔在环保方面做得很好,但不会花大钱做报告来证明这一点
Berkshire is strong on the environment but won't do expensive reports to prove it
沃伦·巴菲特好,安德鲁?
WARREN BUFFETTOK, Andrew?
安德鲁·罗斯·索金谢谢,沃伦。有个股东提的公司治理问题。贝莱德的拉里·芬克预测,在不久的将来,所有投资者都会用 ESG——环境、社会、治理——指标来帮助判断公司的价值。我担心我们在气候、多样性、包容性等各个方面得分都不高。你觉得伯克希尔在这些指标上表现如何?这些指标本身有价值吗?
ANDREW ROSS SORKINThanks, Warren. Governance question from a shareholder. Larry Fink of BlackRock has predicted that in the near future, all investors will be using ESG —environmental, social, governance — metrics to help determine the value of a company. I'm worried we don't score well on everything from climate to diversity to inclusion. How well do you think Berkshire measures up on those metrics, and are they valuable metrics?
沃伦·巴菲特我认为,实际情况是,我们的表现相当不错,但我们不会为任何提出要求的机构准备报告。我们有这样一个想法:尽管所有股东都是平等的,但我们多少有点——我们更偏爱个人股东。我们实际上更喜欢那些我们认识的、成为共同所有者的人。我们不想准备一堆报告,然后让 60 个子公司各自去做些事情——他们会组建一个团队,把材料寄到总部,然后我们再提供给那些——如果我们的股价涨了点——很可能就会卖掉股票的人。我们希望我们的经理人做正确的事。我们给予了他们极大的自主权去这样做。而且我认为,我们的命中率确实相当不错。你在电影里看到了,我们谈到,我们在爱荷华州销售的所有电力,基本上都来自风力发电。这并不意味着我们能一天 24 小时都做到。我们卖掉一些电,也买进一些。但基本上,我们所创造的风能,将等同于我们所有客户使用的电力。有一个竞争对手——有一家其他的公用事业公司——电力公司——规模和我们差不多——大致相当——也在爱荷华州,他们几乎没有任何风能资源。而风也在他们那里吹。但我们有——我们将实现那个百分之百——事实上,这是一个移动的目标,因为我们在风力发电方面做得太好了——部分原因——我们做得太好了,以至于很多高科技公司都想落户爱荷华州,以便从我们这里以极低的价格获得清洁能源。因此,这个移动的目标,就变成了我们在那个地区的客户增长。但我们不会搞出一份——我们不会让伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源的员工花时间去回答调查问卷,或者为了在某些做这种事的人面前得到更高的分数而费劲。我们只是信任我们的经理人,而且我认为他们的表现至少是合理的。在伯克希尔,我们把费用和不必要的报告控制在最低限度。我们没有——我在年报里提过这一点,我想象不出还有哪家公司能像这样——但我们就是这样,拥有 5000 亿美元的市值,却连一份合并月度损益表都没有。我们不需要它。我想象不出还有哪个组织会这么做,但我们不需要。我们也不会去占用资源——人力资源——去做那些我们不需要做的事——仅仅因为那是美国企业界的常规做法。美国企业界普遍非常担心——他们通常非常担心——会不会有人,你知道,比如激进投资者之类的人,来打翻他们的好日子。所以,他们想确保在这种事情上,每个股东都开心。最终,幸运的是,我们不必为此担心。因此,我们不必花大笔费用去做那些实际上并不能让我们把业务经营得更好的事情。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTI think in reality we measure up well, but we don't participate in preparing reports for anybody that asks about it. And we have this idea that even though all shareholders are equal, we sort of — we prefer individual shareholders. We actually prefer people we know as co-owners. And we don't want to be preparing a lot of reports and asking 60 subsidiaries each to do something, where they'll set up a team, and they'll mail things to headquarters, and then we'll supply them to somebody who, if our stock goes up some, is probably going to sell it anyway. We want our managers to do the right things. We give them enormous latitude to do that. And I think that our batting average really is quite good. You saw that in the movie, we talked about having a hundred percent of the electricity we sell in Iowa come from, essentially, wind generation. Now that doesn't mean that we get to do it 24 hours a day. We sell some and we buy it. But essentially, we will be creating as much wind energy as all of our customers use in electricity. There's one competitive — there's one other utility — electric utility — that's about our size — roughly our size — in Iowa, and they have practically no wind resources. And the wind blows where they exist, too. But we have — we will have that hundred percent — and as a matter of fact, it's a moving target, because we do so well — partly — we do so well on wind generation that a number of the high-tech companies want to locate in Iowa and get clean energy from us at very low prices. And therefore, the moving target becomes our growth in customers in that area. But we are not going to put out a — we're not going to spend the time of the people at Berkshire Hathaway Energy responding to questionnaires or trying to score better with somebody that is working on that. It's just, we trust our managers and I think the performance is at least decent. And we keep expenses and needless reporting down to a minimum at Berkshire. We do not get — and I mentioned this in the annual report — I can't imagine another company like it — but here we are, with 500 billion of market capitalization — we do not have a consolidated P&L monthly. We don't need it. Now I can't imagine any other organization doing that, but we don't need it. And we're not going to tie up resources — people resources — doing things we don't need to do just because it's the sort of standard procedure in corporate America. And corporate America is very worried about, in general, they're very worried about whether somebody's going to upset their apple cart, you know, with activists and everything. So, they want to be very sure that every shareholder is happy on issues like that. And in the end, fortunately, we don't have to worry about that. So, we don't have to run up a lot of expenses doing things that don't actually let us run the business better. Charlie?
查理·芒格嗯,我认为在伯克希尔,环保方面的事情是在我们下面一级做的。我认为格雷格·阿贝尔在这方面做得极其出色。所以,我觉得我们得分很高。至于所谓的公司最佳实践,我认为那些谈论它的人其实根本不知道最佳实践是什么。他们只知道他们认为的最佳实践。他们是根据什么能卖出去来决定的,而不是根据什么能行得通。所以,我喜欢我们做事的方式,胜过他们的,我向上帝祈祷我们永远不要追随他们的最佳实践。(掌声)
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I think at Berkshire the environmental stuff is done one level down from us. And I think Greg Abel is just terrific at it. And so, I think we score very well. When it gets to so-called best corporate practices, I think the people that talk about them don't really know what the best practices are. They just know what they think are the best practices. And they determine that based on what will sell, not what will work. And so, I like our way of doing things better than theirs, and I hope to God we never follow their best practices. (Applause)
“独立”董事其实并不独立
"Independent" board members aren't really independent
沃伦·巴菲特我想就独立董事指出一点。我本人担任过 20 家上市公司的董事,不算伯克希尔的任何子公司。所以我见过大量公司董事会的运作方式。而独立董事,在很多情况下,恰恰是最不独立的。我的意思是,如果你作为公司董事获得的收入——通常每年大约 25 万美元——现在,如果这笔收入是你收入的重要组成部分,而且你希望有其他公司打电话给首席执行官问,“某某某当董事怎么样?”而现任首席执行官——你的首席执行官——回答说,“哦,他表现不错,从来不惹麻烦,”然后你又以 25 万美元的年薪进入另一家董事会,那笔收入又成了重要组成部分,这怎么可能是独立的呢?我的意思是,这真的只是我个人的观察。(掌声)我特别想不起来,有任何独立董事——如果来自董事会的收入对他们很重要的话——我记不起他们曾在董事会或委员会会议上做过任何真正违背公司利益的事情。你知道,他们被安排进薪酬委员会。他们就是不会去打翻饭碗,因为他们——而我如果处在同样位置,很可能也会同样行事。我的意思是,如果每年 25 万美元对你很重要,你凭什么要做出那种举动,让你的首席执行官对下一位首席执行官说,“这家伙有点太能闹腾了。你最好换个人。”事情就是这么运作的。但他们——
WARREN BUFFETTI'd like to point out one thing on independent directors. I mean, I have been on 20 public company corporate boards, not counting any Berkshire subsidiaries. So, I've seen a lot of corporate boards operate. And the independent directors, in many cases, are the least independent. I mean, if the income you receive as a corporate director — which typically may be around $250,000 a year — now, if that's an important part of your income, and you hope that some other corporation calls the CEO and says, "How's so-and-so as a director?" and the current CEO — your CEO — says, "Oh, he's fine and never raises any problems," and then you get on another board at 250,000 and that's an important part, how in the world is that independent? I mean, I really, just an observation. (Applause) I can't recall, particularly, any independent director — where their income from the board was important to them — I can't recall them ever doing anything in board meetings or committee meetings that actually was counter to the interest — you know, they put them on the comp committee. They're just not going to upset the apple cart, because what they're — and I'd probably behave the same way in the same position. I mean, if $250,000 a year is important to you, why in the hell would you behave in a way that's going to cause your CEO to say to the next CEO, "This guy acts up a little bit too much. You really better get somebody else." It's the way it works. But they've —
查理·芒格我觉得实际情况比沃伦跟你说的还要糟一点。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERI think it works a little worse than Warren's telling you. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特是啊,查理和我——
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, Charlie and I —
查理·芒格确实很糟糕。
CHARLIE MUNGERIt's really awful.
沃伦·巴菲特很糟糕。我是说,我们——
WARREN BUFFETTIt's awful. I mean, we —
查理·芒格而且不仅如此,沃伦和我——我们自己就已经把傲慢这个角色扮演得很好了。我们不需要更多了。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERAnd not only that, Warren and I are — we occupy the niche for pomposity very well ourselves. We don't need any more of it. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特查理和我在同一家董事会待过。好吧,实际上,我很久以前待过一家公司董事会,我们持有该公司相当大比例的股份。而董事会的其他成员几乎全是这家公司的客户,不是所有者。他们持有的股份完全只是象征性的。有一次,我们正在审议一件事,要在证券分配方面做出一项税务决策,涉及的金额很大。这时,其中一位董事说:“那咱们就把这笔税吞了吧。”可他口中的“吞了”,摊到他自己头上也就大约 15 美元——(笑)我说:“咱们把这句话拆开分析一下。‘把税吞了’,那就是‘让我们把税吞了’。那么,有谁愿意吞下同等数额的税呢?跟我一样?”这——你知道,这——你要是在饭桌上打嗝太频繁,人家就不会再邀请你加入董事会了——
<<<END P 15>>>
WARREN BUFFETTCharlie and I were on one board. Well, I was on one board, actually, a long time ago where we owned a very significant percentage of the company. And the rest of the board was almost exclusively customers of the company. But not owners. They had absolutely token holdings. And at one point we were looking at something where a tax decision was being made in terms of the distribution of some securities. And it was a lot of money that was involved. And one of the other directors said, "Well, let's just swallow the tax." Well, his swallowing amounted to about $15 or something — (Laughs) I said, "Let's parse this sentence out. Let's swallow the tax. That's let us swallow the tax. So, who wants to swallow an equal amount, you know, to me?" It's — you know, it's — you don't get invited to be on boards if you belch too often at the dinner table —
查理·芒格嗯,在蓝筹印花公司,我们有个董事说,“我不明白为什么你们这些人就因为持有所有股份就能变得这么重要。”
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, at Blue Chip Stamps we had a director who said, "I don't see why you guys get to be so important just because you own all the shares."
沃伦·巴菲特是啊。(笑声)查理和我以前开完蓝筹印花公司的会都得先冷静冷静,因为当时我们和里克·加勒特大概持有多少股份来着?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. (Laughter) Charlie and I used to have to cool off after the Blue Chip Stamps meetings, because we and Rick Garrett owned what percent, probably?
查理·芒格哦,50%。
CHARLIE MUNGEROh, 50 percent.
沃伦·巴菲特对,50%,他们还任命的那些——
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, 50 percent, and they'd appointed all these —
查理·芒格他们全是扶轮社的成员。
CHARLIE MUNGERThey were all members of the Rotary Club.
沃伦·巴菲特那都是政府和解协议之类搞出来的。那可不是一种理想的决策方式。他们心里的那本账也跟我们完全不一样。我能理解,但我不会再去照搬了。(笑)
WARREN BUFFETTIt came out of a government settlement or something. And it was not an ideal form of decision making. And they just had a different calculus in their mind than we did. And I can understand it, but I'm not going to replicate it. (Laughs)
“我们会在能源上投入大量资金”——公用事业的资本支出
"We will put a lot of money into energy" with capital spending at utilities
沃伦·巴菲特好,格雷格。
WARREN BUFFETTOK, Gregg.
格雷格·沃伦沃伦和查理,过去十年美国的电力需求一直停滞不前,但未来十年有可能回升,主要来自三个新兴需求来源——电动汽车充电、数据中心和大麻种植——预计这三者将占到美国电力总需求的 5% 以上。不过,公用事业公司必须下功夫才能从这一新需求中获益,其中很大一部分可能会流向南大西洋、中部、西部和山区各州,受益最大的将是那些投资于电网扩建、智能网络、可靠性和可再生能源的公司。伯克希尔能源公司在资本投资方面一直很积极,在它竞争的地区也已拥有一些电价最低的优势,但看起来它正在缩减年支出,而此时实际上可能需要更多投入。年支出预计将从过去平均每年约 60 亿美元降至 2021 年的约 40 亿美元,其中约三分之二是以维护驱动而非增长驱动。您认为伯克希尔能源公司未来十年是否需要加大在某些领域的资本投入,以确保抓住这一预期的未来需求增长,就像它在爱荷华州西部发展风电那样——那里现在已经聚集了很多数据中心?对于需求增长预计最强劲、但伯克希尔尚无业务覆盖的地区,除收购之外,公司是否还有别的资本配置途径?
GREGG WARRENWarren and Charlie, U.S. electricity demand has flatlined during the past decade, but could potentially pick up over the next decade with three emerging sources of demand — electric vehicle charging, datacenters, and cannabis cultivation — expected to account for more than 5 percent of total U.S. electricity demand. Utilities will have to work hard to benefit from this new demand, though, much of which is likely to accrue to states in the South Atlantic, Central, West, and Mountain regions, with the greatest benefit going to firms that invest in grid expansion, smart networks, reliability, and renewable energy. While Berkshire Energy has been aggressive with its capital investments, and already has some of the lowest electricity rates in the areas where it competes, it seems like the firm is winding down its annual spending at a time when more might actually be required. With annual spending expected to fall from around 6 billion, on average, annually to around 4 billion in 2021, with two-thirds of that spending being more maintenance driven than growth. Is there any one area where you feel Berkshire Energy might need to commit more capital over the next decade to ensure that it captures this future expected demand growth, much as it already has with wind power in western Iowa, which is now populated with a lot of data centers, and for territories where demand growth is expected to be the strongest but where Berkshire does not have a presence, are there any avenues aside from acquisitions for the company to put capital to work?
沃伦·巴菲特我马上就把这个问题转给阿吉特。但我可以告诉你,伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司有三个所有者。我们拥有 91% 的股份。没有比我们三个更热衷于向公用事业行业内的合理交易投入资金,或者在我们拥有的最大化任何机会的人员方面处于更有利位置的所有者了。我们从未从中美能源公司获得过一分钱股息——无论它是什么——接近 20 年了。而其他公用事业公司支付高额股息。他们实际上——从根本上说,他们没有我们这样的资本胃口。所以,这只是一个找到合理项目的问题。而且我要说,没有哪个团队比我们的团队更聪明、更有动力。现在我把问题转给格雷格。
WARREN BUFFETTI'm going to throw that over to Ajit in just a second. But I will tell you that we have three owners of Berkshire Hathaway Energy. We are the 91 percent owner. And there are no three owners that are more interested in pouring money into sensible deals within the utility industry or are better situated in terms of the people we have to maximize any opportunities. We have never had a penny of dividends in — whatever it is — close to 20 years of owning MidAmerican Energy. And other utility companies pay high dividends. They really — they just don't have the capital appetite, essentially, that we do. So, it's just a question of finding sensible projects. And I would say that there's no group that is as smart about it, as motivated about it as our group. And with that I'll turn it over to Greg.
查理·芒格简单讲,我们差不多已经是你能找到的最好的了,你还是操心点别的吧。
CHARLIE MUNGERIn short, we're about as good as you can get, and you should worry about something else.
沃伦·巴菲特没错。(笑声)不过格雷格,你能站起来跟大家聊聊——?我们真的很希望在能源上花很多钱。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. (Laughter) But Greg, could you stand up and talk about —? We really hope to spend a lot of money in energy.
格雷格·阿贝尔好的,好的。各位午安。是啊,格雷格,你已经提到了。我们接下来要重点关注的几个领域,现实地看,是在 2021、2022 这个时间窗口。因为你提到,我们在 2019、2020 年收尾时会有一套很不错的项目组合,而且确实主要集中在爱荷华州建设新的可再生能源项目、扩建电网上。但我们在其他几家公用事业公司里也同样有这些机会。爱荷华的布局,说实话,已经相当满了。等我们实现 100% 可再生能源——沃伦也提到了——每增加一个新数据中心,就意味着我们可以再建 300 兆瓦的可再生能源。我们会继续这么做。但你再看太平洋电力公司,我们在西北部服务六个州,其实才刚在那里启动一项扩张计划。第一阶段是建设大量输电设施,也就是扩建电网,然后再开始建可再生能源。不过,为了让各位对现行的监管环境有个概念,这个项目我们是 2008 年启动的,而现在实际才建成了头三分之一。但第二阶段和第三阶段的规划已经就位,你会在 2021 年和 2023 年看到它们逐步落地。现实情况是,我们在内华达能源公司也会继续这么做,重点同样放在电网扩建上,这样才能把资源输送出去,再用可再生能源做补充。所以,正是你提到的那些。我们还没敲定具体项目,因此也从不把它们放进对外披露的资本预测里。一旦项目敲定、我们确信会往前推进,你自然就会看到一些增量资本。当我们把这些资本投出去的时候,那显然是我们代表伯克希尔股东在赚取回报。谢谢。
GREG ABELYeah, yeah. Afternoon. Yeah, Gregg, you touched on it. A couple critical areas we go forward is to look realistically in the '21, 2022 timeframe. Because as you touched on, we've got a great portfolio as we finish out 2019, 2020. And it's really been focused on building new renewable energy projects in Iowa, expanding the grid. But equally, we do have those opportunities in our other utilities. The footprint in Iowa, realistically, is getting pretty full. As we hit a hundred percent renewables — Warren touched on it — every time we get a new data center, that means we can build another 300 megawatts of renewables. We'll continue to do that. But when you look at PacifiCorp, where we serve six states in the Northwest, we've really just embarked on an expansion program there. The first part was to build significant transmission, so expand the grid, and then start to build renewables. But just to give you some perspective of the regulation that exists in place, we started that project in 2008. And we're realistically building the first third of it. But we do have the planning in place for the second phase and the third phase, and that's what you'll see coming into place in 2021 and in '23. And the reality is we'll continue to do that at NV Energy, with really, again, the focus being on both grid expansion, so we can move the resources, and then supplementing it with renewables. So, it's exactly what you've touched on. And we haven't identified the specific projects yet, so we never put them in our capital forecast that we disclose to folks. But as they firm up and we know that they will go forward, clearly you'll see some incremental capital. And that's capital we clearly earn on behalf of the Berkshire shareholders as we deploy it. Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特我们会在能源上投入大量资金。(笑)
WARREN BUFFETTWe will put a lot of money into energy. (Laughs)
查理·芒格是啊,我们在这一块儿的状况确实好极了。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, we're really in marvelous shape in this department.
沃伦·巴菲特顺便说一句,你们知道沃尔特·斯科特,他看到所有这些项目就兴奋,还会亲自跑去参观。他对这门生意的了解远比我多——他忘掉的东西都比我学到的多。但我们有极好的合作关系,有无限的资本,而且会一直有。这个行业也正需要巨额资本。所以我觉得,十年或二十年后,当人们回头来看我们的记录,在能源行当里一定找不到能与之相提并论的。
WARREN BUFFETTIncidentally, you know, Walter Scott, I mean, he gets excited looking at all these projects, and goes out and visits them. He knows way more about the business — and he's forgotten more about it than I'll ever know. But we've got a great partnership. We've got unlimited capital. We'll continue to have it. And there's needs for huge capital in the industry. So, I think 10 years from now or 20 years from now, our record will be looked at and there'll be nothing like it in the energy business.
查理·芒格嗯,格雷格,在爱荷华,有谁在能源方面领先于我们吗?
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, Greg, is there anybody ahead of where we are in Iowa in terms of energy?
格雷格·阿贝尔查理,实际上在美国没有人领先我们,更不用说在爱荷华州了。看看我们生产的能源相对于客户消费的数量,我们确实在全国领先,尤其是在爱荷华州。
GREG ABELCharlie, there's realistically no one ahead of us in the U.S., let alone in Iowa. When you look at the amount of energy we produce relative to what our customers consume, we really do lead the nation and Iowa.
查理·芒格而且,我们的电价不是也大约是爱荷华州主要竞争对手的一半吗?
CHARLIE MUNGERAnd aren't our rates about half that of our leading competitor in Iowa to boot?
沃伦·巴菲特大约一半。差不多。
WARREN BUFFETTAbout half. Close.
格雷格·阿贝尔没错。我们就在那个范围内。
GREG ABELExactly. We're right in that range.
查理·芒格如果这对你来说还不够好,那我们帮不了你。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERIf this isn't good enough for you, we can't help you. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特顺便说一句,我们在离这里五英里的地方卖电。格雷格,对吗?
WARREN BUFFETTIncidentally, I mean, we sell electricity five miles from here. Greg, is that correct?
格雷格·阿贝尔就在河对岸。
GREG ABELRight across the river.
沃伦·巴菲特是的,就在河对岸。而且,你知道,风是一样的吹,诸如此类。内布拉斯加州的公共电力区,追溯到乔治·诺里斯,一直是一个公共电力州。在内布拉斯加州,电力公用事业领域不存在资本主义。所以,他们拥有销售免税债券的优势。我们必须销售应税债券,这在一定程度上提高了成本。他们有很大的盈余,不必为此支付股息或任何其他费用。而我们的电价基本上比他们的便宜。我的意思是,我们为我们的公用事业运营感到非常自豪。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, right across the river. And, you know, the wind blows the same and all that sort of thing. And the public power district here, in Nebraska, going back to George Norris, has always been a public power state. There's no — capitalism doesn't exist in the electric utility field in Nebraska. So, they have had the advantage of selling tax-exempt bonds. We have to sell taxable bonds, which raises cost to some degree. They have a big surplus, which they don't have to pay dividends on or anything else. And our rates are cheaper than theirs, you know, basically. I mean, we're very proud of our utility operation.
伯克希尔为何不将未动用的现金投入股票指数基金
Why Berkshire doesn't put its unspent cash into a stock index fund
沃伦·巴菲特卡罗尔?
WARREN BUFFETTCarol?
卡罗尔·卢米斯“沃伦,你是指数投资的忠实拥护者,并且主张不要试图择时。但在我看来,你让伯克希尔持有如此大量的国库券现金,并没有践行你所宣扬的理念。
“我在想,一个很好的替代方案是,在你找到有吸引力的收购或回购股票之前,将伯克希尔的大部分超额现金投资于一个充分多元化的指数基金。
“如果你在过去 15 年里这样做,同时一直保持你想要的 200 亿美元现金缓冲,我估计到 2018 年底,公司持有的 1120 亿美元现金、现金等价物、短期投资和国库券余额,其价值本应约为 1550 亿美元。这两个数字之间的差额,是一个机会成本,相当于伯克希尔当前账面价值的 12% 以上。你对我的话有什么回应?”我忘了说这个问题来自迈克·埃尔扎尔,他在位于佛罗里达州博卡拉顿的 Colony Group 工作。
CAROL LOOMIS"Warren, you are a big advocate of index investing, and of not trying to time the market. But by your having Berkshire hold such a large amount of cash in T-bills, it seems to me you don't practice what you preach. "I'm thinking that a good alternative would be for you to invest most of Berkshire's excess cash in a well-diversified index fund until you find an attractive acquisition or buy back stocks. "Had you done that over the past 15 years, all the time keeping the $20 billion cash cushion you want, I estimate that at the end of 2018, the company's 112 billion balance in cash, cash equivalents, in short-term investments and T-bills, would've instead been worth about 155 billion. The difference between the two figures is an opportunity cost equal to more than 12 percent of Berkshire's current book value. What is your response to what I say?" And I forgot to say the question is from Mike Elzahr, who is with the Colony Group, located in Boca Raton, Florida.
沃伦·巴菲特这是一个相当合理的问题,我不会质疑这些数字。而且我要说,那是一种替代方案,例如,我的继任者可能希望采用。因为,总的来说,我更愿意持有指数基金而不是持有国库券。我要说,如果我们在 2007 年或 2008 年就实施这项政策,我们可能在 2008 年末或 2009 年的行动能力方面会处于不同的位置。所以,它有一定——在涉及数千亿美元规模时,它会有某些执行问题,而如果你对 10 亿或 20 亿左右的钱实施类似政策则不会有这些问题。但这是一个完全合理的观察。当然,回顾十年的牛市,这一点确实很突出。但我要说,如果你操作的是较小的资金量,它非常有意义。而如果你操作的是较大的资金量,伯克希尔未来以这种方式运作可能也很有意义。你知道,我们一周前承诺了 100 亿。并且存在一些条件——这些条件并不遥远,在任何特定的一周、一个月或一年里也不常见——但存在一些条件,在这些条件下我们可以非常、非常快地花掉 1000 亿。如果我们这样做了——如果这些条件存在——那将是部署得非常好的资本,而且比放在指数基金里好得多。所以,我们一直——我们基于我们将获得部署资本的机会这一前提运作。这些机会很可能会成批出现。并且它们会在别人不愿意配置资本的时候出现。查理,你怎么看?
WARREN BUFFETTThat's a perfectly decent question, and I wouldn't quarrel with the numbers. And I would say that that is an alternative, for example, that my successor may wish to employ. Because, on balance, I would rather own an index fund than carry Treasury bills. I would say that if we'd instituted that policy in 2007 or '08, we might have been in a different position in terms of our ability to move late in 2008 or 2009. So, it has certain — it has certain execution problems with hundreds of billions of dollars than it does if you were having a similar policy with a billion or 2 billion or something of the sort. But it's a perfectly rational observation. And certainly, looking back on ten years of a bull market, it really jumps out at you. But I would argue that if you were working with smaller numbers, it would make a lot of sense. And if you're working with large numbers, it might well make sense in the future at Berkshire to operate that way. You know, we committed 10 billion a week ago. And there are conditions under which— and they're not remote, they're not likely in any given week or month or year — but there are conditions under which we could spend a hundred billion dollars very, very quickly. And if we did — if those conditions existed — it would be capital very well deployed, and much better than in an index fund. So, we've been — we're operating on the basis that we will get chances to deploy capital. They will come in clumps in all likelihood. And they will come when other people don't want to allocate capital. Charlie, what do you think about it?
查理·芒格嗯,我承认在现金问题上比别人稍微保守一点。但我认为这没什么。我们可以把所有钱都投入许多证券,事后看来这些证券的表现会优于标普 500 指数。记住,我们在那整个时期都有那么多额外的现金,万一有什么机会出现呢。我不认为像我们这样大的公司,现金稍微多留一点是什么罪过。我们不必——我看到哈佛大学用光了最后一分现金,包括所有来自家长的预付学费,并在完全错误的时机将其投入市场,并对私募股权做出了许多远期承诺。他们遭受了大约两三年的极度痛苦。我们不想像哈佛那样。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I plead guilty to being a little more conservative with the cash than other people. But I think that's all right. We could have put all the money into a lot of securities that would've done better than the S&P with 20/20 hindsight. Remember, we had all that extra cash all that period, if something had come along in the way of opportunities and so on. I don't think it's a sin to be a little strong on cash when you're as a big a company as we are. We don't have to — I watched Harvard use the last ounce of their cash, including all their prepaid tuition from the parents, and plunge it into the market at exactly the wrong moment and make a lot of forward commitments to private equity. And they suffered, like, two or three years of absolute agony. We don't want to be like Harvard.
沃伦·巴菲特还有木材和林林总总的——
WARREN BUFFETTPlus timber and a whole bunch of —
查理·芒格什么?
CHARLIE MUNGERWhat?
沃伦·巴菲特还有木材。我是说——
WARREN BUFFETTPlus timber. And I mean —
查理·芒格是,是。我们不会变的。(笑声和掌声)
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, yeah. We're not going to change. (Laughter and applause)
沃伦·巴菲特我们确实喜欢手里有大笔钱,能动作很快、规模很大地操作。我们知道——也许我们不会——我们知道这种机会不常有。我不认为——当然,你知道,未来二三十年里,会有两三次下金雨的时候,你只要走到外面就行。但我们不知道它们什么时候会发生。我们有大笔钱可以投入。我想说的是,如果你告诉我必须要么持有短期国库券,要么持有指数基金,让那些钱投资于整个美国,我会选指数基金。但我们仍有希望。关于伯克希尔,你一定要非常明白的一点是,我们经营企业的方式,我们认为符合那些几乎把所有净资产都放在伯克希尔的股东的利益。我自己恰好也处于这种状态,但不管什么情况我都会这么做。我们有很多人信任我们,他们持有的伯克希尔股票相对于其净资产的比例,确实远高于常规投资准则的建议。我们希望为所有人赚钱,但我们非常、非常想确保,任何人在接近内在价值的价格买入我们的股票后,不会永久性亏钱。我们就是反感让一百多万股东——可能多达两百万——中很多人真的亏钱,如果他们还愿意和我们待一段时间的话。我们知道当整个世界普遍恐慌时人们会怎么行事。他们想和一个东西待在一起——我觉得他们想和一个他们觉得像直布罗陀巨岩一样可靠的东西待在一起。我们对这群人有很强的倾向。
WARREN BUFFETTWe do like having a lot of money to be able to operate very fast and very big. And we know — and maybe we won't — we know we won't get those opportunities frequently. I don't think — certainly, you know, in the next 20 or 30 years there'll be two or three times when it'll be raining gold and all you have to do is go outside. But we don't know when they will happen. And we have a lot of money to commit. And I would say that if you told me I had to either carry short-term Treasury bills or have index funds and just let that money be invested in America generally, I would take the index funds. But we still have hopes. And the one thing you should very definitely understand about Berkshire is that we run the business in a way that we think is consistent with serving shareholders who have virtually all of their net worth in Berkshire. I happen to be in that position myself, but I would do it that way under any circumstances. We have a lot of people who trust us, who really have disproportionate amounts of Berkshire compared to their net worth, if you were to follow standard investment procedures. And we want to make money for everybody, but we want to make very, very sure that we don't lose permanently money for anybody that buys our stock somewhere around intrinsic business value to begin with. We just have an aversion to having a million-plus shareholders, maybe as many as two million, and having a lot of them ever really lose money, if they're willing to stay with us for a while. And we know how people behave when the world, generally, is upset. And they want to be with something — I think they want to be with something they feel is like the Rock of Gibraltar. And we have a real disposition toward that group.
房利美和房地美应对活动房屋贷款做更多,即便这会损害克莱顿的利润
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should do more loans for manufactured housing, even if it hurts Clayton's profits
沃伦·巴菲特乔纳森?
WARREN BUFFETTJonathan?
乔纳森·布兰特房利美和房地美有了新的活动房屋贷款融资项目,我猜这终于能让需要贷款购买这类房子的人,和买现场建造房屋的人站在更公平的竞争平台上。你预期这些新项目对活动房屋需求会有多大的正面影响?这些项目又会影响克莱顿从贷款中获得的可观利润吗?克莱顿会把更多贷款卖给房利美和房地美吗?即便利差收窄,这能帮助利润吗?
JONATHAN BRANDTFreddie Mac and Fannie Mae have new financing programs for manufactured home loans that I'm guessing could finally put purchasers of those homes who need mortgages on a somewhat more level playing field with those buying site-built homes. How positive an effect do you expect these new programs to have on manufactured home demand? And how might the programs affect Clayton's sizable profits from lending? Will Clayton sell more loans to Freddie and Fannie, and does that help profits even if spreads compress?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,可能不会帮助利润,但——如果房利美和房地美被授权做更多活动房屋贷款,这肯定是有好处的。活动房屋对人们来说是一种非常合理的获得体面住房和拥有一套房子的方式。它们在某种程度上很难融资。地方银行经常做,但大贷款机构一直不想做。它们——有可能,或者很可能,房利美和房地美会扩大规模。我们已经卖了——我不知道是每月 1000 万美元的贷款还是多少——给房利美和房地美。但在我看来,如果房利美和房地美在那个领域做更多,对美国会非常好。显然,我们会多卖一些房子,但我们会失去融资业务,我们可能落在后面,也可能走在前头。但我认为这是一件好事。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTWell, it may not help profits, but it would — it definitely is good if the Freddie and Fannie are authorized to do more lending against manufactured homes. Manufactured homes are a very reasonable for people to get decent housing and have a home. And they are hard to finance to some degree. The local banks frequently do it, but the big lenders haven't wanted to do it. They are — There is the possibility, or the likelihood, that Freddie and Fannie are going to expand. We already sell — I don't know whether it's 10 million a month of loans or something like that — to Freddie and Fannie. But it would be very good for America, in my view, if Freddie and Fannie did more in that area. Obviously, we would sell some more homes, but we would lose financing, and we might come out behind, we might come out ahead. But I think it would a good thing to do. Charlie?
查理·芒格嗯,我认为房利美和房地美会为越来越多的房屋提供融资,而且它们会越来越多地通过克莱顿来做。它们这样做是因为克莱顿非常值得信赖,并且能以低廉的价格为人们提供好房子,做得非常好。我认为克莱顿会越来越大、越来越大,在你能看到的未来都是这样。这家伙年轻,他不像沃伦和我,一点不像。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I think Freddie and Fannie will finance more and more homes, and I think they'll do it more and more of it through Clayton. And they'll do it because Clayton is very trustworthy, and will do a very good job at making good housing at cheap prices for people. And I think Clayton will get bigger and bigger and bigger as far ahead as you can see. And the guy's young, he doesn't look like Warren and me. Not at all.
沃伦·巴菲特克莱顿有一个完美的管理团队,我们正在扩大现场建造房屋业务。我们几天前刚结束了一笔建筑商的收购。我们现在有九家不同的——我相信——九家现场建造房屋业务,而几年前我们一家都没有。我们对凯文·克莱顿和他的团队评价极高。我们的董事去年在诺克斯维尔开会,第二次参观了克莱顿的运营。所以,我们喜欢克莱顿扩张的想法,我们喜欢更多人拥有非常可负担的住房的想法。在 2008 年和 2009 年经济衰退期间,我们的借款人——他们的 FICO 评分平均很低,我是说与典型的购房者相比,而且他们——如果他们保住了工作,就会还款。我是说,他们想要那栋房子,那栋房子对他们来说极其重要。我们也有各种项目帮助他们。但在当时的压力下,我们的贷款表现远好于人们的预期。这是因为房子对人们来说确实有意义。除非失去工作或生病——而且,就像我说的,我们有一些帮助人们的项目——他们会还款,他们的生活也很体面。但如果房利美和房地美扩大它们的项目,他们会获得更便宜的住房。像我说的一样,我希望他们这么做。
WARREN BUFFETTWe've got a perfect managerial group at Clayton, and we're expanding our site-built homes. We just closed on a builder a couple — a few days ago. And we now have nine different — I believe — nine different site-built home operations, and we didn't have any a few years ago. And we think extraordinarily well of Kevin Clayton and his group. Our directors met last year in Knoxville and viewed the Clayton operation for the second time. So, we like the idea of Clayton expanding, and we like the idea of more people having very affordable housing. During the 2008 and '09 recession, our borrowers — who had very low FICO scores on average, I mean compared to typical home buyers, and they — if they kept their jobs, they made the payments. I mean, they wanted that home, and the home was an enormously important item to them. And we had various programs that helped them as well. But our loan experience was far better than people anticipated under the stress that existed then. But it was because a home really means something to people. And absent losing jobs or sickness — and, like I say, we have some programs to help people — they make the payments, and they have very decent living. But they would get that even cheaper if Freddie and Fannie expanded their programs. And, like I say, I hope they do.
有独创性的资本主义将取代自动化消失的就业岗位
"Ingenious" capitalism will replace jobs lost to automation
沃伦·巴菲特好,2 号站。
WARREN BUFFETTOK, station 2.
现场股东嗨。嗨,沃伦,嗨,查理。我叫凯莉,这是我女儿克洛伊。她 11 周大。这是她第一次参加伯克希尔股东大会。(笑声)我们来自旧金山,我们有一个关于就业的问题想问你们。作为一家重要雇主和消费品生产商,你们如何看待随着自动化和临时就业的兴起,优质全职工作前景的不确定性?
<<<END P 11>>>
AUDIENCE MEMBERHi. Hi Warren, hi Charlie. My name is Carrie and this is my daughter, Chloe. She's 11 weeks. It's her very first Berkshire meeting. (Laughter) We're from San Francisco, and we have a question on employment for you. As both a major employer and a producer of consumer goods, what do you make of the uncertain outlook for good full-time jobs with the rise of automation and temporary employment?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,如果我们 200 年前问这个问题,有人说,“考虑到农业机械、拖拉机和联合收割机等的发展前景——”这意味着农场里 90% 的人会失去工作——这看起来会很糟糕,不是吗?但我们的经济和人民,我们的制度,在实现我们现在拥有的——1.6 亿个就业岗位——方面一直非常有独创性,而自 1776 年以来,我们一直在想办法消灭工作岗位。这就是资本主义做的事,它生产出越来越多的人均商品。我们从来不知道它们会来自哪里。我是说,它——我不知道你从事什么职业——嗯,如果你在客运铁路行业,我是说,你知道,这将会改变。但在这个经济体中,我们找到了办法雇佣越来越多的人。我们现在有比这个国家历史上任何时候都多的就业人口,尽管重工业等行业的公司一家接一家,自然都在想方设法不断提高生产力,这意味着用更少的人生产同样数量的商品,或用同样数量的人生产更多商品。这就是资本主义。我认为你不必担心美国人的独创性会耗尽。我是说,如果你看看各行各业的人,他们喜欢赚钱,但他们真的很喜欢发明创造,你知道。他们喜欢做事。这个经济体,它行得通。它会继续行得通。它会在某些行业非常——非常艰难,会有错位。你知道,当汽车出现之类的事情发生时,我们不会生产那么多马蹄铁之类的东西。但现在我们确实找到了办法,雇佣我们现在雇佣的所有人——1.55 亿左右——支撑着 3.3 亿人口,而开始时我们只有 400 万人,80% 的劳动力在农场上工作。所以,这个制度行得通,并且会继续行得通。我不知道下一件大事会是什么。我确实知道会有下一件大事。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTWell, if we'd asked that question 200 years ago, and somebody said, "With the outlook for development of farm machinery and tractors and combines and so on —" meaning that 90 percent of the people on farms were going to be — lose their job — it would look terrible, wouldn't it? But our economy and our people, our system, has been remarkably ingenious in achieving whatever we have now — 160 million jobs — when throughout the period ever since 1776, we've been figuring out ways to get rid of jobs. That's what capitalism does, and it produces more and more goods per person. And we never know exactly where they're going to come from. I mean, it — I don't know if you were whatever occupation — well, if you were in the passenger train business, I mean, you know, you were going to — that was going to change. But we find ways, in this economy, to employ more and more people. And we've got now more people employed than ever in the history of the country, even though company after company in heavy industry and that sort of thing, has been trying to figure out, naturally, how to get more productive all the time, which means turning out the same number of goods with fewer people, or turning out more goods with the same number. That is capitalism. I don't think you need to worry about American ingenuity running out. I mean, if you look at people in all kind of businesses, and they like to make money, but they really like to be inventive, you know. They like to do things. And this economy, it works. It will continue to work. And it will be very — it's very tough in certain industries, and there will be dislocations. You know, we won't be making as many horseshoes and that sort of thing when cars come along and all that. But we do find ways now to employ whatever we're employing — 155, whatever it is — million people, and supporting a population of 330 million people when we started with 4 million people, with 80 percent of the labor being employed on farms. So, the system works and it will continue to work. And I don't know what the next big thing will be. I do know there will be a next big thing. Charlie?
查理·芒格嗯,我们希望尽可能把苦差事转移给机器人。这正是我们 200 年来一直在做的,就像沃伦说的。没人想回去当铁匠,或者在街上铲马粪,或者老天知道人们过去还干过什么。我们很高兴那些工作被淘汰了。很多对未来的担忧来自左派人士,他们非常担心经济金字塔底端的人在顶端的人快速领先的那段时间里有点吃亏。那是个意外,因为我们遇到那么多麻烦,不得不向世界注入大量资金,把利率压到零。当然,这推高了资产价格,帮助了富人。没人这么做是因为他们突然爱上了富人,那只是一个意外,而且很快就会过去。我们希望有所有这些生产率的提高,我们不应该为某个阶层在一段时间内稍微领先的事实而担心。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, we want to shift the scut work to the robots to the extent we can. That's what we were doing, as Warren said, for 200 years. Nobody wants to go back to being a blacksmith, or scooping along the street, picking up the horse manure, or whatever the hell people used to do. We're glad to have that work eliminated. And a lot of this worry about the future comes from leftists who worry terribly that the people at the bottom of the economic pyramid have had a little stretch when the people at the top got ahead faster. That happened by accident because we were in so much trouble that we had to flood the world with money and drive interest rates down to zero. And, of course, that drove asset prices up and helped the rich. Nobody did that because they suddenly loved the rich, it was just an accident, and it will soon pass. We want to have all this productivity improvement, and we shouldn't worry a little about the fact that one class or another is a little ahead at one stretch.
沃伦·巴菲特(掌声)我和查理——我们在杂货店工作过。当有人订购一罐豌豆时,我们得爬上梯子去够那罐豌豆,然后把它放进折叠箱,再装上卡车。如果你看看实际从生产者转移到消费者手中的食物量,以及参与交易的人数,你知道,它——我不知道是现在最有效的食品配送方式效率的三分之一、四分之一还是五分之一。并且——
WARREN BUFFETTCharlie and I — (applause) — we worked in a grocery store. And when people ordered a can of peas, we had ladders that we climbed up to reach the can of peas, and then we placed it in a folding box, and then we put it on a truck. And if you looked at the amount of food actually transferred between the producer and the person who consumed it, and the number of people involved in the transaction, you know, it was — I don't know whether it was one-third or one-quarter or one-fifth as efficient as the best way now to get food delivered to you. And —
查理·芒格而且食物更差。
CHARLIE MUNGERAnd the food was worse.
沃伦·巴菲特(笑)我的祖父,你知道,对这种赊账和送货的商店会被淘汰感到沮丧。它确实被淘汰了,但社会——
WARREN BUFFETT(Laughs) And my grandfather, you know, was distressed about the fact that this particular credit and delivery kind of store would be eliminated. And it was eliminated, but society —
查理·芒格它正在回归。
CHARLIE MUNGERIt's coming back.
沃伦·巴菲特——解决了——你说什么?
WARREN BUFFETT—addressed the — pardon?
查理·芒格它正在回归。
CHARLIE MUNGERIt's coming back.
沃伦·巴菲特它正在回归,但效率更高了。(笑声)总之,我们看到了一点创造性破坏。坦白说,我们很高兴它让我们解放出来,进入了投资行业。这对我们来说结果更好。
WARREN BUFFETTIt's coming back, but more efficiently. (Laughter) Anyway, we've seen a little creative destruction. And frankly, we're glad that it freed us up to go into the investment business. Worked out better for us.
法规可能“烦人”,但银行和保险业需要它们
Regulations can be "irritating," but they're needed for banks and insurance
沃伦·巴菲特贝基?
WARREN BUFFETTBecky?
贝基·奎克这个问题来自威斯康星州格拉夫顿的布莱恩·古斯特。他谈到监管者和政客。问题是:“伯克希尔·哈撒韦的投资组合持有几家大型金融机构,它们受到严格监管且政治色彩浓厚。你是否觉得,在某些情况下,监管者和/或政客正在运营大银行,而不是首席执行官和董事会?”
BECKY QUICKThis question comes from Brian Gust of Grafton, Wisconsin. He's talking about regulators and politicians. It says, "The Berkshire Hathaway investment portfolio holds several large financial institutions that are heavily regulated and are politically charged. "Do you feel that, in some cases, the regulators and/or politicians are running the big banks instead of the CEO and the board of directors?"
查理·芒格当然。(笑声)但不过分。
CHARLIE MUNGERSure. (Laughter) But not too much.
沃伦·巴菲特不,保险业一直受到监管——它碰巧主要是在州层面受到监管——但自从我们进入这个行业以来,保险业就一直受到监管,而且它并没有——你知道,当年我看 GEICO 时,它做了 700 万美元的业务。而现在,你知道,它要做 300 多亿美元的业务。而且它一直受到监管。监管通常可能很烦人,但另一方面,我们也不希望一群骗子在保险业里运营。而保险业实际上很容易吸引骗子,因为你拿到钱,然后给对方一个承诺。我喜欢保险业或银行业存在监管这个事实。这并不意味着它有时不会把你逼疯或类似情况,但这些行业应该受到监管。它们太重要了。任何时候,只要你拿到别人的钱,他们带着承诺回家,而你带着钱回家,我不介意对这些行业有一定程度的监管。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTNo, insurance has been regulated — it happens to be regulated primarily on a state basis — but insurance has been regulated ever since we went into it, and it hasn't — you know, when I looked at GEICO, it was doing 7 million of business. And, you know, it will do 30-odd billion of — billion — of business now. And it's been regulated the whole time. And regulation can be a pain in the neck, generally, but on the other hand, we don't want a bunch of charlatans operating in the insurance business. And insurance actually lends itself to charlatans because you get handed money and you give the other guy a promise. And I like the fact that there is regulation in the insurance business, or the banking business. It doesn't mean it can't drive you crazy sometimes or anything of the sort, but those businesses should be regulated. It — they're too important. And anytime you can take other people's money, and they go home with a promise and you go home with the money, I don't mind a certain amount of regulation in those businesses. Charlie?
查理·芒格是的。你是在使用政府的信用,因为你有存款保险,这是一种隐性的交易。你不能在资金使用上太疯狂。这是完全合理的——我坚信我们应该有一个涉及银行风险承担监管的体系。在房地产危机高峰期,投资银行的情况变得特别糟糕,其行为——只有一个词来形容这种行为——令人作呕。而且几乎每个人都这样。沃伦,你——很难想到有谁在那次繁荣中保持了理智。他们觉得别人在做蠢事,我也必须做,否则我会被甩在后面。多么疯狂的行为方式。所以,当然,会有一些干预,但可能必须有。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. You're using the government's credit because you have deposit insurance, there's an implicit bargain. You can't be too crazy with what you do with the money. That's a perfectly reasonable — And I absolutely believe that we should have a regulation system that involves supervision of risk-taking by banks. It got particularly bad in the investment banks at the peak of the real estate crisis, and the behavior was — there's only word for the behavior — it was disgusting. And it was pretty much everybody. Warren, you — it's hard to think of anybody who stayed sane in that boom. They felt the other guy's doing dumb things, I've got to do it, too, or I'll be left out. What a crazy way to behave. And so, sure, there's some intervention, but there probably has to be.
沃伦·巴菲特你想要一个食品药品监督管理局。是的。如果你身处这个行业,你会对他们的做法感到不满,但是——你知道,我发现任何形式的监管都令人恼火。但尽管如此,这对系统有好处。实际上,许多监管者,你知道,我会说他们在监管方面相当明智。但当你被告知如何经营你的业务时,你不会有这种感觉。但正如查理所说,你不会想在一个不受监管的体系中经营一家银行,在那里任何人都可以进来做各种事情,而这些事情实际上会把你拖入他们自己制造的问题中。很久以前,我们有过银行业的狂野西部,它在 19 世纪引发了许多问题。
WARREN BUFFETTYou want a Food and Drug Administration. Yeah. You'll be unhappy with how they do it, if you're in the business and all that, but — and, you know, I find any kind of regulation irritating. But nevertheless, it's good for the system. And actually, a number of regulators, you know, I would say that they've really been quite sensible about regulation. But you don't feel that way when you're being told how to run your business. But as Charlie says, you wouldn't want to be a bank that ran in an unregulated system where anybody could come in and do all kinds of things that would actually have consequences that drew you into the problems that they created themselves. We had the Wild West in banking long ago, and it produced a lot of problems in the 19th century.
股东不需要也不想要子公司的非常详细信息
Shareholders don't want or need very detailed information on the subsidiaries
沃伦·巴菲特杰伊?
WARREN BUFFETTJay?
杰伊·盖尔布在过去的几年里,在伯克希尔的年度致股东信中,关于其运营业务和财务业绩的细节越来越少。例如,该公司不再提供金融和金融产品部门的细节、制造、服务和零售业务的资产负债表,或者保险业务按部门划分的浮存金明细。对于像伯克希尔这样庞大且多元化的公司,为什么提供给投资者的信息比以前少?
JAY GELBFor the past several years, in Berkshire's annual shareholder letter, there's been increasingly less detail provided on its operating businesses and financial performance. For example, the company is no longer providing details on the finance and financial product segment, or a balance sheet for the manufacturing, service, and retail segment, or a breakdown of float by unit in the insurance business. For a company as large and diversified as Berkshire, why are investors being provided less information than previously?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我不认为我们实际提供的信息更少。我们可能每年以稍微不同的形式呈现,只是——然后今年,例如,你知道,我像往常一样开始写我的信,心里想着说:“亲爱的多丽丝和伯蒂,”我的姐妹们,告诉她们我会告诉任何在伯克希尔拥有其净资产非常大比例的人,这个人很聪明,不知道我们各种业务的所有行话,会读很多字,因为他们确实有一笔很大的投资。所以,如果我解释任何事情,并且做得不错,她们会理解我在说什么。我用我认为对超过一百万人中相当大比例的人可以理解的语言告诉她们,这些人对会计之类的事情有着各种不同的理解。我告诉她们我在另一边想听到的信息。现在,如果我是一个竞争对手,我想知道我们某个家具店的盈利情况或类似信息,你知道,我可能会喜欢,但这实际上没什么区别。如果你谈论的是一个 5000 亿美元的组织,如果你了解我们的保险业务,就给你一个画面而言,我想,在三四五页里——你知道,实际上,SEC 要求我们提供关于损失准备金发展的大量材料。我想你可以写一份 300 页的报告,但提供的信息比一份 50 页的报告少得多。而且你会让人失去兴趣。所以,我试图告诉她们——就像我说的,在我心里,就是我的姐妹们——我试图告诉她们,如果我们拥有一家私人企业,她们每人拥有三分之一,我拥有三分之一,每年一次,她们想了解情况,我会告诉她们的内容。她们不知道综合成本率是什么意思,因为那是个大家都用的蠢词。重要的是把它称为利润率。她们不知道铁路业务的运营比率是什么,那是个过时的术语。最好也把它称为利润率。但这些行话——我们不是为分析师写的。我们是为股东写的,我们试图告诉他们一些东西,这样他们就能做出——他们不仅能了解我们现在拥有什么,还能了解我们如何思考运营,我们长期试图做什么。我们每年都尽力做到最好。而且我不认为它——我认为如果有人对细节极度感兴趣,他们实际上错过了整个画面。因为你可以知道 1965 年我们纺织业务的每一个细节,我们可以给你提供信息,说明我们从衬里赚了多少,从手帕赚了多少,但你会处于一个不同的世界。我的意思是,重要的是我们如何看待管理资金,以及我们长期会怎样处理事情。而且只是——如果你在 1980 年或 1985 年读了它,并且寻找关于喜诗糖果因为向东扩张做得如何的非常详细的细节,你知道,我们会告诉你,总体来说,就扩张领地而言,那是失败的。但深入到大量细节,这些细节可能对分析师非常有趣,但对股东来说,他们必须决定谁在管理他们的钱,以及他们如何管理,他们长期做了什么,他们希望将来做什么,以及如何衡量这些。再说一次,我们是为个人写的。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I don't think we actually provide less information. We may present it in a somewhat different form from year to year, just — and then this year, for example, you know, I started my letter, as usual, in my mind as saying, "Dear Doris and Birdie," my sisters, to tell them what I would tell anybody that had a very significant proportion of their net worth in Berkshire, who is intelligent, did not know all the lingo of our various businesses, that would read a lot of words, because they did have a large investment. So, if I explained anything, and did a decent job, that they would understand what I was talking about. And I tell them that in the language that I think will be understandable to a significant percentage of a million-plus people who have all kinds of different understanding of accounting and all that sort of thing. I tell them the information I would want to hear on the other side. Now, if I was a competitor, and I wanted to know what one of our furniture stores was earning or something of the sort, you know, I might love it, but it doesn't really make any difference. If you're talking about a $500 billion organization, if you understand our insurance business, in terms of giving you the picture, I think, in three or four or five pages — you know, actually we've got a whole bunch of stuff required by the SEC about loss reserve development. I think you can write a 300-page report that gives a whole lot less information than a 50-page report. And you lose people. So, I try to tell them — like I say, in my mind, it's my sisters — I try to tell them what I would tell them if we had a private business and they owned a third of it each, and I owned a third, and once a year, they like to get filled in. And they don't know what a combined ratio means because it's a dumb term that everybody uses. And the important thing is to call it a profit margin. They don't know what the operating ratio is in the railroad business, and it's an obsolete term. It'd be better to call that a profit margin. But the lingo — we're not writing it for analysts. We're writing it for shareholders, and we're trying to tell them something so they can make a — they can not only get the picture as to what we own now, but how we think about the operation, what we're trying to do over time. And we try to do the best job we can every year. And I don't think it — I think if somebody is terribly interested in the details, they really are missing the whole picture. Because you could have known every detail of our textile business in 1965, and we could give you the information as to how much we made from linings and how much we made from handkerchiefs, and you'd be in a different world. I mean, the important thing was how we looked at running money and what we would do about things over time. And it just — you could have gotten very misled — if you'd read it in 1980 or '85 and you looked for great detail on how See's candy was doing because they moved eastward, you know, we'll tell you that overall that failed, in terms of moving out the territory. But going into a whole lot of detail that might be very interesting to an analyst, but really for the shareholder, they've got to make a decision as to who's running their money, and how they're running it, and what they've done over time, and what they hope to do in the future, and how to measure that. And again, we're writing it for the individual. Charlie?
查理·芒格嗯,我想我应该关注每一个小生意,直到最后一分钱,但我不关注。我也不想要那么多细节。我认为我们的竞争对手会喜欢它,但这不会给我们的股东带来任何好处。所以,我们可能只会继续按现在的方式报告。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I suppose I should be watching every tiny little business down to the last nickel, but I don't. And I don't want that much detail. And I think our competitors would like it, and it wouldn't do our shareholders any good. So, we'll probably just keep reporting the way we do.
沃伦·巴菲特你看我们多有弹性。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTYou can see how flexible we are here. (Laughter)
芒格:美国在中国的投资“环境正变得更好”
Munger: "Climate getting better" for U.S. investments in China
沃伦·巴菲特3 号提问台。
WARREN BUFFETTStation 3.
现场股东你好,巴菲特先生、芒格先生。我是 Sasha Xixi(音),来自中国国际金融股份有限公司。上周,中国公布了 12 项进一步开放金融业的新举措。这些措施将允许更多的投资机构进入中国金融市场,并确保外商投资政策与境内投资政策保持一致。两位对这些新措施有什么看法?你们认为未来外资金融机构会对中国股市拥有更强的定价权吗?你们有在中国设立公司的计划吗?如果有,大概会在什么时候?谢谢。
AUDIENCE MEMBERHello, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. I'm Sasha Xixi (PH) from China International Capital Corporation Limited. Last week, China announced 12 new measures further opening up the financial industry. All these measures will allow more invested institutions to enter into Chinese financial market, and to insure the policies of foreign investment to be consistent with those of domestic investment. What do you think about these new measures? Do you believe the foreign financial institutions will have more pricing power over the Chinese stock markets in the future? Do you have any plans to set up a company in China? If so, what time? Thank you.
查理·芒格嗯,我们现在就有一家。冰雪皇后(Dairy Queen)已经遍布中国了。(笑声)而且经营得不错。我们也没等新法律出台,在原来的法律框架下就这么做了。不过我们在中国的整体规模不算大,对吧,沃伦?
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, we've got one now. Dairy Queen is all over China. (Laughter) And it's working fine. And we didn't wait for new laws. We did it under the old laws. But we're not that big, net, in China, right, Warren?
沃伦·巴菲特什么不算大?
WARREN BUFFETTWe're not that big what?
查理·芒格在中国的布局。
CHARLIE MUNGERIn China.
沃伦·巴菲特是的,但我们本来有些机会可以做得颇具规模。不过,中国是个很大的市场,我们喜欢大市场。我是说,我们真正能大规模部署资金的,可能也就 15 个左右的国家,说到底还是受市场规模所限。
WARREN BUFFETTNo, but we had something, you know, that could have happened that would have been quite sizable. But China, it's a big market, and we like big markets. I mean, we really can only deploy capital in a major way maybe in 15 or so countries just because of the size.
查理·芒格但总的来说,我觉得环境正在改善。这两个国家友好相处,确实是再明智不过了。想想看,要是中美交恶,得有多愚蠢。我得说,那对双方都是件蠢事。
CHARLIE MUNGERBut generally, I think the climate is getting better. It really makes sense for the two countries to get along. Think of how stupid it would be if China and the United States didn't get along. Stupid on both sides, I might add.
沃伦·巴菲特是的。我们在中国做得不错。虽然做得还不够,但是——(掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. We've done well in China. We haven't done enough, but — (Applause)
巴菲特“感觉”脱欧公投是个错误,但仍渴望在英国达成交易
Buffett has "feeling" Brexit vote was a mistake, but he's still anxious for a U.K. deal
沃伦·巴菲特安德鲁?
WARREN BUFFETTAndrew?
安德鲁·罗斯·索金沃伦,这是来自威斯敏斯特上议院一位议员的问题,他今天恰好也在现场,同时也是我们公司的股东。这位加迪亚勋爵(Jitesh Gadhia)问:“您曾写道,‘我们希望进行大规模的跨境投资。’那么,您对在英国和欧洲投资的意愿有多大?脱欧会对此产生什么影响?另外,顺便请教一下,您对破解英国的脱欧困局有什么建议?”(笑声)
ANDREW ROSS SORKINWarren, this is a question from a member of the House of Lords in Westminster, who happens to be here today, who also is a shareholder of the company. This is Lord (Jitesh) Gadhia who says, "You've written, 'We hope to invest significant sums across borders. So, what's your appetite to invest in the U.K. and Europe, and how will Brexit impact that? And while we're at it, what's your advice for solving U.K.'s Brexit dilemma?" (Laughter)
查理·芒格沃伦,这题你来答。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERThat's yours, Warren. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我可以——这么说吧,我接受了一次《金融时报》的采访,我一般不这么做。我考虑的其中一个因素,就是希望伯克希尔·哈撒韦在英国和欧洲能更广为人知。《金融时报》的读者群,正是我希望那些有意出售企业时会更多想到伯克希尔的群体。我想,我们的名字在全球,至少在金融圈,大家应该相当熟悉了。但毫无疑问,如果有人要在美国出售一家大型企业,他们一定会想到伯克希尔。他们可能出于其他原因,决定另觅他途,但肯定会想到伯克希尔。而我想,这种认知在全球范围内显然还没到那个程度。我们运气不错,有少数一些人想到了伯克希尔,比方说伊斯卡(ISCAR)那笔交易。其实,伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司很早就在英国置有一项基础资产。但在那次采访里,我之所以愿意花三个小时跟《金融时报》的记者谈,就是希望他们写这篇报道——等报道发出来时——能让某个地方、某个人,原本不会想到伯克希尔的人,因此想到我们。我们很乐意在英国投入更多资金。我的意思是,如果明天我接到一个电话,有人说,“我有一家价值数十亿——英镑——的公司,觉得或许值得你收购”,而且我也确实希望把它纳入伯克希尔,那我马上就会坐上飞机赶过去。但对方得亮明——得告诉我他们的价格预期,还有盈利情况如何——我可不感兴趣跑过去聊半天,帮他们估完价,结果做不成交易。我们一旦行动起来,就想把交易做成。我们正期待着这样的机会。我们期待能在英国、或者欧洲,无论脱欧最终结果如何,都做成一笔交易。我觉得——我并非英国人,但我有种感觉,投票决定脱欧是个错误。但这并不会——这丝毫不会削弱我在英国进行一笔超大收购的胃口。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I can — I will tell you this. I mean, I gave an interview to The Financial Times, and I don't do that very often. But one of the considerations I have is that I would like to see Berkshire Hathaway better known in both the U.K. and Europe. And the FT audience was an audience that I hoped would think of Berkshire more often in terms of when businesses are for sale. Our name is familiar, I think, pretty much around the world in, at least, financial circles. But there is no question if anybody's going to sell a large business in the United States, they're going to think of Berkshire. They may decide, for other reasons, they'd rather do it differently. But they will think of Berkshire. And I don't think — I mean, obviously that is not as true around the world. We've had some very good luck with a few people that have thought of Berkshire, I mean, such as at ISCAR. And actually, Berkshire Hathaway Energy had one of its base holdings from way back was in the U.K. But I was looking, in doing that interview, I was willing to spend three hours with the FT reporters in the hope that when they write about — when they write the story — that somebody, someplace thinks of Berkshire that wouldn't otherwise think of it. And we'd love to put more money into the U.K. I mean, if I get a call tomorrow and somebody says, you know, "I've got an X-billion-dollar — pound — company that I think might make sense for you to own," and that I would like to actually have as part of Berkshire, you know, I'll get on the plane and be over there. But they'll have to name — they'll have to tell me what their price ideas are, and what its earnings — I'm not interested in going over and talking about it and pricing it for them and not making a deal. We like to make deals when we actually get into action. And we're hoping for it. And we're hoping for a deal in the U.K., and/or in Europe, no matter how Brexit comes out. I think it — I don't — I'm not an Englishman, but I have the feeling it was a mistake to vote to leave. But I don't think it's — I don't think it — it doesn't destroy my appetite in the least for making a very large acquisition in the U.K. Charlie?
查理·芒格嗯,我的祖先都来自北欧,所以我对那片土地格外有感情。但另一方面,你要问我如果住在英国会怎么投脱欧的票,我其实也说不上来。这在我眼里实在是一个极为棘手的难题。我很庆幸这是他们要解决的问题,而不是我。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, all my ancestors came from northern Europe so I'm very partial to the place. On the other hand, if you asked me how I would vote on Brexit if I lived in Britain, I don't even know. It just strikes me as a horrible problem. And I'm glad it's theirs, not mine. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特但如果我明天打电话给你,说我们在英国有个 deal,你会告诉我——
WARREN BUFFETTBut if I called you tomorrow and said we had a deal in U.K., you'd tell me —
查理·芒格哦,我二话不说就会参与进去。
CHARLIE MUNGEROh, I would go in, in a minute.
沃伦·巴菲特对。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah.
查理·芒格那是我喜欢打交道的人。我了解他们。
CHARLIE MUNGERThose are my kind of people. I understand them.
沃伦·巴菲特没错。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. (Laughter)
我们寻找海外收购,“不需要派人实地去跑”,我们需要的是更低的价格
We don't need "boots on the ground" to find foreign acquisitions, we need lower prices
沃伦·巴菲特好了,格雷格。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTOK, Gregg. (Laughter)
格雷格·沃伦是的,沃伦,我想把前面两个问题再跟进一下,因为里面似乎有一条主线。在我看来,回顾伯克希尔历史上的收购和投资,我们确实有比较明显的本土偏好。当然,坚守自己最了解、最舒服的领域肯定是有价值的,但你们的模式似乎已经从最初侧重于派人到一线去发掘投资和收购机会,转变成了如今更愿意等卖家或他们的代表主动打电话给你们,或者顺道来办公室拜访。这基本上是一种“等机会上门”的拉动模式,而不是主动出击的推动模式。这本身没什么问题,我只是在想,这种模式的机会成本,是不是会让伯克希尔错失大量海外业务的机会——那些企业的所有者根本不知道你们愿意以直接买断的方式出手,并让他们在伯克希尔的保护伞下继续经营公司;同时,也可能因为伯克希尔对当地市场不够熟悉,而错失股票投资机会。就现阶段而言,您是否认为伯克希尔在这些海外市场投入更多“一线人员”会更有好处?
GREGG WARRENYeah, Warren, just wanted to kind of maybe follow up on those past two questions, because there is sort of a theme there. It seems to me that there's definitely more of a home country bias when we look at the acquisitions and investments that Berkshire's done historically. And while there's definitely value in sticking with what you know and feel the most comfortable with, it seems like you've gone from a model that was originally focused on putting boots on the ground to find investment and acquisition opportunities to one where you're seemingly more content to have sellers or their representatives call you or drop by the office, basically more of a pull model than a push model. There's nothing wrong with this, but I just wonder, if the opportunity cost that comes with this type of model is that Berkshire misses out on a lot of overseas business where owners are unaware of your willingness to step up and buy them outright and allow them to run their companies under the Berkshire umbrella, and missing stock investment opportunities because Berkshire if not necessarily familiar enough with the local market. At this point, do you think Berkshire would benefit from putting more boots on the ground in these overseas markets?
沃伦·巴菲特是的,我们——实际上,应该是在我们收购了伊斯卡之后,伊坦·韦特海默说服我,我们应该在欧洲提高一些知名度。他也帮忙促成了这件事。我去了那边,他安排了各种会面。我们有过大量的接触。并不是说人们不知道我们,我们也确实听到了一些机会。但我们的问题在于,这些标的必须够大。我是说,如果我们要做一笔 10 亿美元的收购,它能赚大约 1 亿美元,这是税前,税后 8000 万美元,你知道,这件事——如果我们确实了解这门生意,并且确信未来管理它的人不会没有动力,确信他们还能像当初投入自有资金时那样努力经营,那这 8000 万对 250 亿来说确实是个不错的添头。但你花不起大量时间去做这种事。让托德(库姆斯)和特德(韦施勒)去帮忙物色、筛选之类的工作,是能帮上一些忙。但归根结底,你要找的是——你要找的是某个家族,在欧洲或英国持有自己的企业长达 50 或 100 年,既有能力完成交易,又愿意跟伯克希尔来做这笔交易。我是说,如果他们只追求卖个最高价,想搞竞标拍卖,那我们赢不了,也不会参与,因为我们不会在这上面浪费时间。如果我们组建一支收购团队,他们肯定会去收购点什么。我的意思是,我见过太多机构的运作方式了,你知道,如果一个人每天的工作就是去上班、筛选一大堆东西,心里盘算着自己是战略部门或收购部门的人,那他总会想做点什么。我也想干点什么,但我不想干,除非——(笑)——伯克希尔能从中受益——名副其实地受益——而且一般还需要规模够大。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, we — actually, it must have been after we bought ISCAR, Eitan Wertheimer convinced me that we should get more exposure in Europe. And he helped out in doing that. I went over, he arranged various meetings. We've had a lot of contact. It isn't that they're not aware, and we do hear about some. But we do have the problem they've got to be sizable. I mean, if we do a billion-dollar acquisition, and it makes $100 million, or thereabouts, pretax, $80 million after tax, you know, it's — if we really know the business and we're sure we're not going to have a problem with the people running it being motivated in the future, and doing a similar job as to when they had their money in and everything, it's nice to add 80 million to 25 billion. But you can't afford to spend lots of time doing that. And we gain something by having Todd (Combs) and Ted (Weschler) do some looking at things, screening them and that sort of thing. But in the end, you want somebody that — you want some family that's held their business in Europe or in the U.K. for 50 or 100 years that can make a deal, and that wants to do it with Berkshire. I mean, if they're looking to get the most money, if they want to have an auction, we're not going to win and we're not going to participate because we're not going to waste our time on it. If we form an acquisition crew, they'll acquire something. I mean, I've watched so many institutions in operation that, you know, if your job every day is to go to work and screen a bunch of things with the idea that you're the strategic department or acquisition department, you're going to want to do something. I want to do something, but I don't want to do something unless — (laughs) — Berkshire benefits by it — truly benefits by it — and generally it's of a size.
查理·芒格沃伦,我们的问题不是缺人到现场,我们的问题是,到了现场的那些人付出的价格,是我们不想付出的。
CHARLIE MUNGERWarren, our problem is not a lack of boots on the ground, our problem is the people on the ground are paying prices that we don't want to pay.
沃伦·巴菲特是的。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah.
查理·芒格这才是我们的问题。而这个问题,不是你多派几双靴子就能解决的。
CHARLIE MUNGERThat's our problem. And that problem is not going to be cured by boots.
沃伦·巴菲特我们在接下来一年能花掉 1000 亿美元。这不成问题。
WARREN BUFFETTWe can spend $100 billion in the next year. That is not a problem.
查理·芒格不成问题。
CHARLIE MUNGERNo.
沃伦·巴菲特怎么明智地把它花出去,才是巨大的问题。而且——
WARREN BUFFETTSpending it intelligently is a huge problem. And the —
查理·芒格我们的竞争对手是在用别人的钱买,他们享受部分上行收益,却不用承担任何下行风险。
CHARLIE MUNGEROur competitors are buying with somebody else's money, and they get part of the upside and take none of the downside.
沃伦·巴菲特而且他们很多人——
WARREN BUFFETTAnd a lot of them —
查理·芒格很难和那样的人竞争。
CHARLIE MUNGERIt is hard to compete with people like that.
沃伦·巴菲特是的。他们会加杠杆,如果失败了他们会赚很多钱,如果成功了他们会赚更多钱。那可不是我们的方程式。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. They'll leverage it up, they'll make a lot of money if it fails, and they'll make even more money if it succeeds. And that's not our equation.
查理·芒格对。
CHARLIE MUNGERNo.
沃伦·巴菲特情况并不总是那样,但现在肯定是那样。可能——
WARREN BUFFETTAnd that isn't always that way, but it's certainly that way now. It's probably —
查理·芒格而且我们变得和其他人一样,并不符合股东的利益。
CHARLIE MUNGERAnd it's not in the shareholders' interest that we get to be like everybody else.
沃伦·巴菲特对。(掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. (Applause)
我们对伯克希尔作为长期“复利机器”感觉良好
We feel good about Berkshire as a long-term "compounding machine"
沃伦·巴菲特好,4 号位。
WARREN BUFFETTOK, station 4.
现场股东巴菲特先生和芒格先生,非常感谢你们多年来与我们分享的智慧。我是来自纽约的史蒂文·伍德。巴菲特先生,非常感谢您去年八月对我正在写的书给予的反馈,非常慷慨的反馈。如果可以的话,我还有一个后续问题。在研究历史上最伟大的价值创造者时,很明显,主要的复利效应发生在后期——在他们职业生涯的后期。或者,在(科尼利厄斯·)范德比尔特的情况下,甚至超越了他自己的职业生涯。所以,您近期的投资让我觉得,您正在将伯克希尔设计成一个稳健的复利机器,应该能在很长一段时间内持续创造价值。能否请二位详细阐述一下这台复利机器?以及这台机器持续适应以保持这种价值创造持久性的能力?那么,这种传承是否是您每天醒来时的主要动力之一?
AUDIENCE MEMBERMr. Buffett and Mr. Munger, thank you so much for the wisdom you've shared with us over the years. This is Steven Wood from New York. And, Mr. Buffett, thank you very much for your feedback, your very generous feedback, last August on the book that I'm writing. I just had one follow-up, if I may. In studying the most significant value creators of all time, it is very evident that the major compounding effect happened later — at the later stages of the careers. Or, in (Cornelius) Vanderbilt's case, even beyond his own career. So, your recent investments have suggested to me that you are designing Berkshire to being a steady compounding machine that should continue to create value for a very long time. Would you both please elaborate on this compounding machine? And the machine's ability to continue to adapt to keep this value creation durable. And then is this legacy one of your sort of primary motivations when you wake up every day?
沃伦·巴菲特我会说这是首要动力,而且已经是很长、很长、很长时间以来都是这样。不管我生活中其他方面多顺利,只要伯克希尔出了问题,我就不会感觉好,你明白的。我不需要把时间花在——(笑)——那种做完后结果让我心里堵得慌的事情上。而且这件事是可以做到的。我是说,现在的文化比 10 年前更强,而 10 年前又比再早 10 年更强。它变化缓慢,但方向正确。当有机会配置资本时,我们一直努力让每一个实体——无论是早年的合伙公司,还是现在的伯克希尔,或是我们曾经持有的蓝筹印花,甚至多元零售(听不清)——都成为复利机器,实质上就是复利机器。这正是人们把资本交给我们的原因。这也是我们把自有资本投进去的原因。如果我们在这一点上失败了,我们真的会觉得自己失败了。我们靠收费或其他方式赚了多少钱根本不重要,我们知道自己的衡量标尺是什么。所以这一点会延续下去。我认为伯克希尔现在比以往任何时候都处境更好,唯一的问题是规模拖累了业绩。这话我可能 40 年前就写过——嗯,实际上,是在我关闭合伙公司不再接受新资金时写的,当时我们只有大约 4000 万美元。我当时就说,真的,在 4000 万美元的基数上,额外资金会拉低回报。所以,你可以想象我现在看着伯克希尔 3680 亿美元——(笑)——的资本基数是什么感受。但这种文化是独特的。它能发挥作用。它不会是最高速的复利机器,远远比不上许多其他企业。但我认为它会是长期获得体面回报的最安全方式之一。但这将取决于追随我们的人。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTI would say it is the primary motivation, but it's been that for a very, very, very long time. No matter what was going right in my life, if things were going badly at Berkshire, I would not feel good, you know. I don't need to be spending my time working on something — (laughs) — that makes me feel bad about the results when we get through. And it's something that's doable. I mean, the culture is stronger now than it was 10 years ago, and it was stronger then than 10 years previously. It moves slowly, but it goes in the right direction. And when we get chances to deploy the capital, we've always tried to make any entity, whether it was the partnership originally, or Berkshire now, or Blue Chip Stamps when we owned it, or even Diversified (inaudible), we wanted them all to be compounding, in effect, be compounding machines. That's why people gave us capital. That's why we put our own capital in. And if we failed at it, we really felt like we'd failed. It didn't make any difference how much money we made from fees or anything like that, we knew what our yardstick was. And so that will continue. I think Berkshire is better situated than it's ever been, except for the fact that size is a drag on performance, and I probably wrote that 40 years — well, I wrote it, actually, when I closed the partnership to new money when we had like $40 million in it. I just said, really, that new — that additional capital would drag down returns from a $40 million base. So, you can imagine how I feel with a $368 billion — (laughs) — base of capital in Berkshire now. But this culture is special. It can work. It won't be the highest compounder, by a long shot, against many other businesses. I think it will be one of the safest ways to make decent money over time. But that will depend on the people that follow us. Charlie?
查理·芒格嗯,我们从极小的起点走了很远的路。当规模变得巨大之后增速稍稍放缓,在我看来并不是什么巨大的悲剧。而且我认为我们未来会继续做得非常好。比如,20 年前我们根本没有像能源业务这样的东西,现在它是一台动力引擎。30 年前我们也没有凯文(克莱顿)的住宅建筑业务,它很快会成为最大的——嗯,甚至现在,在两种住宅类型上,它都比美国其他任何公司都大,对吧?住宅?我想是的。我们有很多有利因素,我很满意。我认为它会继续平稳发展下去。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, we came a long way from very small beginnings. And the fact that it slows down a little when it becomes monstrous is not my idea of a huge tragedy. And I think we will continue to do very well in the future. We had nothing like the energy operation, you know, 20 years ago, and it's a powerhouse. We had nothing like Kevin's (Clayton) operation in home building 30 years ago, and it will soon be the biggest — well, even now, it's bigger than anybody else in the country, you know, both of types of housing. Isn't it — houses? I think so. And we have a lot going for us, and I'm satisfied. I think it's going to continue reasonably.
沃伦·巴菲特再说,要是我们把事情搞砸了,那会毁掉我们的生活。(笑)所以,这是我们早上醒来时会想的事。我可不想待在一个会辜负别人的事业里,我认为去做那种事简直是疯了,即使你有钱,而且已经 88 岁。(笑)但我们确实有动力去打造一个被认为与众不同的东西,而实际上——在一个这么多钱都机构化的世界里,你明白的,我喜欢拥有一家由个人大量持股的公司,这些人基本上信任我们,而且,你知道,不担心下个季度的盈利会是多少。我认为这不同于大部分资本主义的形态,而且这是查理和我感觉很棒的事情。对吧,查理?
WARREN BUFFETTAnd it would ruin our life if we did terribly. (Laughs) So, that's what we wake up thinking about in the morning. But I wouldn't want to be in a business where I was going to let down other people, and I think it would be crazy to do something like that, even if you weren't rich and 88. (Laughs) But we are motivated to have something that is regarded as something different than others, and we're actually — in a world where so much money is institutionalized, you know, I like the idea of having something that's actually owned by individuals in very significant part, who basically trust us and, you know, don't worry about what the next quarter's earnings are going to be. I think it's different than much of capitalism, and I think it's something that Charlie and I feel good about. Isn't it, Charlie?
查理·芒格是的,绝对如此。(掌声)
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, absolutely. (Applause)
伯克希尔 vs 标普指数,考虑税收因素
Berkshire vs the S&P, with taxes thrown in
沃伦·巴菲特卡罗尔?
WARREN BUFFETTCarol?
卡罗尔·卢米斯这个问题来自加利福尼亚州丹维尔的斯蒂芬·德博德,他提的问题我确实从未听过。“巴菲特先生,您过去——包括今天——都推荐过低成本的标普 500 指数基金,作为可靠的长期投资工具。这些基金有某些固有的结构性优势,比如成本低、持仓自动再平衡。但伯克希尔也有某些结构性优势,比如来自浮存金的财务杠杆,以及多样化的资本配置机会。我认为伯克希尔在这场较量中领先。例如,在我看来,如果伯克希尔整体经营业务和投资表现在未来 10 年里恰好与标普 500 指数的总回报持平,伯克希尔的内在价值增长仍将跑赢标普 500 指数。如果您同意的话,能否估计一下大概会超出几个百分点?”
CAROL LOOMISThis question comes from Stephen De Bode of Danville, California, and it raises a question I've certainly never heard before. "Mr. Buffett, in the past, you have recommended low-cost S&P — and again today — the S&P 500 Index funds as reliable, long-term investment vehicles. These funds have certain inherent structural advantages such as low costs, and automatic reshuffling of their holding. "But Berkshire also has certain structural advantages, such as financial leverage from the float, and diverse capital allocation opportunities. I think of Berkshire as being ahead in this game. "For example, it seems to me that if Berkshire's overall operating business and investment performance were to exactly match the total return of the S&P Index over a 10-year period, Berkshire's growth in intrinsic value would outperform the S&P 500. "If you agree, could you estimate by how many percentage points?"
沃伦·巴菲特(笑)嗯,答案是我不会估计任何东西。但是——如果我们只是持有股票,并且我们持有标普指数,我们的表现会明显逊于标普指数,因为我们会承担公司税,现在资本利得税是 21%,加上可能还有一些州所得税。实际上,我们对股息的税率取决于它们在哪里持有——大约在 10.5% 到 11% 以及 13% 之间。所以,伯克希尔是个错误——或者说,仅仅是税法运作的方式就让它处于公司劣势,而持有指数基金则没有公司层面的税收,只会直接传递给股东。所以,我不会——我不知道我们会不会跑赢标普 500 指数。我知道的是,我们对待股东的钱会像对待自己的钱一样。我们基本上会把自己一生的命运与这项事业绑定,我们会非常谨慎,不去做任何可能以任何重大方式摧毁价值的事情。但如果我们从现在开始遇到一个非常强劲的牛市,我们可能会在那段时期表现不佳。如果五年后或十年后市场处于当前水平或更低,我们可能会表现更好。但我不认为我想——我有点不理解这个问题,它说标普指数 10 年期的总回报和伯克希尔的内在价值增长会跑赢。我不知道那会不会发生。查理?
WARREN BUFFETT(Laughs) Well, the answer is, I won't estimate anything. But the — if we just owned stocks, and we owned the S&P, our performance would be significantly worse than the S&P because we would be incurring a corporate tax, which would now be 21 percent on capital gains, plus possibly some state income taxes. And effectively, our tax rate on dividends is — depends where they're held — but somewhere between 10 1/2 or 11 and 13 percent. So, Berkshire is a mistake — or it's at a corporate disadvantage simply by the way the tax law runs, compared to owning an index fund, which has no tax at the corporate level, but just passes through to shareholders. So, I wouldn't — I don't know whether we'll outperform the S&P 500 or not. I know that we'll behave with our shareholders' money exactly as we would behave with our own money. And we will have — we'll basically tie our fortunes in life to this business, and we will be very cognizant of doing anything that can destroy value in any significant way. But we will probably — If there were to be a very strong bull market from this point forward, we would probably underperform during that period. If the market five years from now or 10 years from now is at this level or below, we will probably overperform. But I don't think that I want to — I don't quite understand the question in terms of when it said the total return of the S&P over a 10-year period and Berkshire's growth in intrinsic value would outperform. I don't know whether that will happen or not. Charlie?
查理·芒格嗯,对于需要纳税的股东来说有一个很大的优势,那就是即使我们只是勉强跟上标普指数,伯克希尔股东在税后也会远远领先。我们在生活中都有不错的位置,处境也不错。我们不应该太失望。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, there would be one big advantage for the shareholders that pay taxes, and that is that the Berkshire shareholders, even if we just matched the S&P, we'd be way ahead after taxes. We all have a pretty decent role in life and a pretty good position. We shouldn't be too disappointed.
沃伦·巴菲特不。如果我们——回到合伙公司时代——我们本可以选择另一种架构,那样在相当长的时间里,做着同样的事情,如果我们一直保留最初的合伙制,实际上对股东的结果会更好一些。但现在的公司形式也不算差,虽然有过一些时期,我们公司缴纳的资本利得税——与个人相比——我记得有一两年好像高到过 39%,而且有很长一段时间是 35%。除此之外,有时还要缴纳州所得税。这些加起来是超过了——嗯,我是说,如果你持有的是一个赋税穿透型基金,就不会有那个等级的潜在双重征税问题。当然,如果你永远持有股票,就不用交那个税。但一旦你真的把股票卖掉,就会受到双重课税的影响。我们绝不是在以任何方式、任何形式抱怨。这个国家待我们好得令人难以置信,我们得到了巨大的顺风,我在年报里写过。这在其他任何一个国家都不可能发生。所以,我们非常幸运,能在这个时代在美国经营。查理,还有要说的吗?
WARREN BUFFETTNo. If we — we could have structured — going back to partnership days — we could have structured things so that actually, over a period of time, doing the same things we did, would have actually come out somewhat more favorably for shareholders if we had kept it to the original partnership group. But the present form hasn't worked badly, although we have had periods when our corporate capital gains tax, as opposed to the individual, I think it got up to 39 percent a couple of years or one year, and certainly was 35 percent for a long time. And then, on top of that, we had the state income taxes in some cases. And they exceeded — well, I mean, if you owned a pass-through fund, you did not have that level of possible double taxation. Now, if you hold your stock forever, you don't pay it. But if you actually sell your stock, you've had a double tax effect. We're not complaining in any way, shape, or form. This country has treated us incredibly well, and we've added this huge tailwind, which I wrote about in the annual report. And it wouldn't have happened in any other country. So, we've been very lucky that we've been operating in this country at this time. Charlie, anything?
查理·芒格没有。
CHARLIE MUNGERNo.
NV Energy 如何应对赌场客户脱离事件
How NV Energy is working to recover from casino defections
沃伦·巴菲特乔纳森?
WARREN BUFFETTJonathan?
乔纳森·布兰特在内华达州,几家赌场切断了与我们子公司 NV Energy 的联系,正在别处寻求电力供应,尽管它们必须为此支付高额的退出费。关于这个现象,我有三个问题。第一:您认为这些是理性的选择,还是出于非经济原因?第二:如果说有什么招能阻止这股脱离潮的话,NV Energy 能做些什么?第三:这种情况是否可能发生在您运营受监管公用事业的其他州?还是说内华达的情况由于存在超大型客户而有些特殊,这些客户在电力市场上比其它州的小型工业客户有更强的议价能力?我不知道这个问题是问您还是问格雷格,但我很乐意听你们中任何一位的回答。
JONATHAN BRANDTIn Nevada, several casinos have cut the cord with our NV Energy subsidiary and are seeking their electricity needs elsewhere, even though they had to pay huge exit fees. I have three questions about this phenomenon. One: do you believe that these are rational choices, or were they made for non-economic reasons? Two: what can NVD do, if anything, to stem the tide of defections? And, three: is this something that could happen in other states where you operate regulated utilities? Or is the situation in Nevada somehow unique because of super-sized customers that have more leverage in the power market than smaller industrial customers in other states? And I don't know whether that's a question for you or Greg, but I'd be happy to hear from either of you.
沃伦·巴菲特这个问题得问格雷格。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTIt's a question for Greg. (Laughter)
格雷格·阿贝尔谢谢,乔纳森。我稍微说明一下,大家应该都听到乔纳森的问题了,我们持有这家公用事业公司大约五年了。我们接手的时候,就知道它在客户关系方面存在一些根本性问题。从一开始,关系就非常紧张,因为公司有过不断涨价的历史,而且确实没有在提供可再生能源、满足客户需求和预期方面拿出好表现。所以,我们当时就知道自己面临一些挑战。到今天为止,已经有五家客户退出了我们的系统。这些客户仍然使用我们的配电服务。所以,我们唯一不再提供给他们的就是电力本身。我们失去了向他们售电的机会,也失去了与此相关的利润。对此我们确实感到失望。不过,正如你提到的,我们确实收回了可观的费用。监管机构对此的考虑是:“好吧,你失去了这个客户;我们给你相当于六年利润的补偿。到那时,你应该已经通过整体负荷的自然增长恢复到了正常水平。” 实际上,这是一个还算公平的结果。我们现在的负荷相对于那些客户离开时更高了。所以,我们扛过来了,这也符合监管机构的预期。根本问题——你也点到了——为什么他们会离开?他们离开是有经济原因的。根本原因是,在第七年之后,他们不再承担州里施加的那部分社会性成本。他们不需要承担可再生能源的成本,也不需要承担能效成本。他们认为到了该退出这种模式的时候。我们正在推动多种立法来拉平竞争环境。也已经有若干此前宣布要离开的客户,现在又与 NV Energy 签订了长期协议。我真的相信我们的团队找到了正确的模式,那就是我们更加专注于为客户提供出色的价值主张。所以,价格必须包含在内。但同样重要的是,我们现在正在那里大规模建设可再生能源。长期来看,我们的团队会为他们提供一个出色的价值主张,我相信 NV Energy 会实现长期繁荣。我们将会对这笔长期投资感到满意。谢谢。
GREG ABELThanks, Jonathan. So just for everybody, I think they heard the question from Jonathan, but we've owned the utility there for approximately five years. When we inherited the utility, we knew it had some fundamental issues around its customers. The relationships were really strained from day one because they'd had a history of continuing to increase rates, and they really weren't delivering renewable energy or meeting the customers' needs or expectations. So, we knew we had some challenges there. As we sit here today, we've had five customers leave our system. Those customers still use our distribution services. So, the only thing we do not provide them is the power. So, we have lost an opportunity to sell them power, and we've lost the associated margin on that. And we are disappointed with that. We do recover, you know, substantial fees, as you noted. How the commission looked at it was, "Well, you lose this customer; we'll give you effectively six years of profit on that. And by then, you should have grown back into your normal load." And actually, it's a fair outcome. Our load is higher than it was relative to when those customers have left. So, we've grown through that, and it's consistent with their belief. The fundamental issue, and you've touched on it, why are they leaving? There are economic reasons for them leaving. And the fundamental reason is, in year seven, they no longer bear sort of the societal costs that are being imposed by the state. They don't have to bear the costs of renewable energy. They don't bear the costs of energy efficiency. And they viewed it as sort of the time to exit out of that model. We do have a variety of legislation that's going to levelize the playing field. We've had a number of customers that announced they were leaving now who've entered into long-term agreements with NV Energy. And I really do believe our team has the right model, which is we're much more focused on delivering a great value proposition to our customers. So, it has to include price. But equally, we're building substantial renewable energy there now. And long term, our team will deliver a great proposition to them, and I think NV Energy will prosper in the long term. We're going to be happy with it as a long-term investment. Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特格雷格,你能不能给在座各位大致讲一下,比如说,在我们收购内华达电力公司之前的十年左右时间里,电价发生了什么变化;我们接手后电价又有什么变化;以及,我们接手后,燃煤发电这块起了什么变化?
WARREN BUFFETTGreg, could you give them, give the audience a rough approximation of what, say, in the 10 years or whatever it may be before we bought Nevada Power, what had happened with rates; what had happened with rates under us; and what has happened with coal generation under us?
格雷格·阿贝尔好的。对,这个好。沃伦实际上是进一步阐述了我们为客户创造价值所专注的重点。如果你看之前十年,他们的电价策略基本上是每隔一年就按通胀幅度涨一次价。这种情况年复一年地发生。我们一接手,就像在爱荷华州做的那样——我们在那里建了全部的可再生能源,而且自 1999 年收购以来从未涨过价。所以电价一直稳定,我们预计到 2030 或 2031 年之前爱荷华州也不会涨价。我们的团队在内华达州采取了非常类似的做法,就是稳定电价。所以自我们拥有以来,电价大概下降了 5% 到 7%。我们没有涨过价。我们再次宣布了大幅度的降价,每两年生效一次。就像过去我们可以涨价一样,现在我们反而有一些降价的机会。他们的电价将在 2002 年——抱歉,是两年后——再次下降。此外,正如沃伦提到的,我们还推行了淘汰煤炭的方案。所以从根本上说,在我们收购时,他们所有的燃煤机组都在运行。我们已经退役了相当大一部分燃煤机组。我相信从现在起一年内,也就是 2023 年,我们将 100% 消除该公司在该州对煤炭的使用。而煤炭过去在他们发电组合中占比很大。所以 ——(掌声)—— 团队干得非常棒。谢谢。
GREGRight. Yeah. Yeah, that's great. So, you know, Warren's really expanding on what are — the focus we've brought to delivering something to the customer. So, if you'd looked at the prior ten years, they pretty much had a rate strategy that, every second year, their rates would go up sort of by the cost of inflation. And that pretty much materialized year after year. We came in immediately, just like we've done in Iowa — so we've built all that renewable in Iowa, and we've never increased rates since the date we acquired it, 1999. So, rates have been stable, and we don't ever see raising rates in Iowa till probably 2030 or 2031. Our team took a very similar approach in Nevada, which was to, you know, stabilize it. So, rates are down probably 5-7 percent since we've owned them. So, we haven't had rate increases. We've announced substantial rate increases (decreases) again that will take effect every two years. So just like we used to be able to have rate increases, we have a few of when we'll decrease their rates. Their rates will go down again in 2002. We've — pardon me, in two years. And then on top of that, there's been an approach to eliminate coal, as Warren touched on. So fundamentally, when we acquired it, all their coal fleet was operating. We've retired a substantial portion of the coal fleet already. And by, I believe it's within a year of this, 2023, we'll have eliminated 100 percent of their use of coal in that state. And it was a substantial portion of their portfolio in the past. So — (applause) — team's done a great job. Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特查理,有什么要说的吗?
WARREN BUFFETTCharlie, have anything?
查理·芒格没有。
CHARLIE MUNGERNo.
投资组合经理韦施勒和库姆斯业绩与标普大致持平,但另有其他贡献
Portfolio managers Weschler and Combs roughly matching the S&P but making other contributions
沃伦·巴菲特5 号台。
WARREN BUFFETTStation 5.
现场股东嗨,你好。我叫亚伦·兰尼,是蒙特利尔一家名为 Medici 公司的投资组合经理,来自魁北克。我的问题其实是问托德(库姆斯)和特德(韦施勒)的,如果可以的话。根据沃伦的说法,他们加入伯克希尔以来,业绩略微落后于标普 500 指数。那么,为了在未来十年各自的股票投资组合中提高跑赢标普的概率,他们最近做了哪些调整,如果有的话?
AUIDIENCE MEMBERYes, hi. My name is Aaron Lanni. I'm a portfolio manager at a company called Medici out of Montreal, Quebec. My question is actually for Todd (Combs) and Ted (Weschler), if possible. So according to Warren, you lagged slightly behind the S&P 500 since joining Berkshire. So what recent changes, if any, have you implemented to increase your odds of beating the S&P in your respective stock portfolios over the next 10 years?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我不确定托德或特德是否在场,但我会告诉你——我会把这当成最后一次报告。实际上,到 3 月 31 日,一个人略微领先,一个人略微落后。但他们是非常出色的经理人。这段时期——那是个艰难的——要跑赢标普指数很难,就像我说的,他们中一个现在领先标普,一个略微落后。他们在各种事情上都帮了我们大忙。托德在医疗倡议方面所做的工作,我们——和摩根大通、亚马逊合作,我不知道他每周在这上面投入了多少小时。他们给我带来的东西,比如特德在处理 Home Capital Group 时做的事——我们基本上以重大方式——稳定了一家在加拿大遭受攻击并经历挤兑的金融机构。他包办了整个过程。我周一听说这件事,周三我们就向那家公司提出了报价。在这之前,他们可能被几十个团队反复审查,同时还在苦苦挣扎。你知道,他的表现非常出色,我认为多伦多地区的人们对此很感激。所以,我们因为有了他们两个而变得好得多。虽然我们有那个衡量标准,但这么说吧,反正他们做得比我好。所以如果你老让我汇报他们的情况,我就得老汇报我自己的情况,而我可不想——(笑声)——那会让我在他们面前很尴尬。他们做得更好。他们非常非常聪明。这些年来,他们用自己的钱投资很精明。这些年来,他们管理别人的钱也很精明。他们为我们赚了很多钱,但在一个你投资标普也能赚很多钱的市场里赚到的。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, I'm not sure whether Todd or Ted are here, but they — I will tell you, but then — I'll make this the final report on it. But on March 31st, actually, one is modest ahead, one is modestly behind. But they are extraordinary managers. It has not been — it was a tough — it's been a tough period to beat the S&P and, like I say, one of them is now ahead of the S&P over that period, one's modestly behind. They've also helped us in just all kinds of ways. What Todd has done in connection with the medical initiative, we have — with J.P. Morgan, Amazon, I mean, I don't know how many hours a week he's worked totally on that. The things they've brought to me, what Ted did in terms of the Home Capital Group where we have essentially, in a major way — well, we stabilized a financial institution that was under attack and experiencing runs in Canada. And he did the whole thing. I heard about that on a Monday, and on Wednesday, we put an offer before the company. And previously to that, they probably had dozens and dozens of people combing over them and, meanwhile, they were struggling. And, you know, it was remarkable what he did and I think it's appreciated in the Toronto area. So, we are enormously better off because the two are with us. And while we have that measurement, like I say, I'll just put it this way, they're doing better than I am anyway. So, if you ask me to report on them all the time, I'll have to report and myself all the time, and I'm not — (laughs) — that would be embarrassing compared to how they do. They do better. They're very, very smart. They've been smart with their own money over the years. They've been smart in running other people's money over the years. And they've made us a lot of money, but they made it during a market where you'd have made a lot of money in S&P as well. Charlie?
查理·芒格不,我没事。
CHARLIE MUNGERNo, I'm fine.
美国运通品牌的实力将有助于抵御激烈的信用卡竞争
Power of American Express's brand will help fend off heavy credit card competition
沃伦·巴菲特好,贝基?
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Becky?
贝基·奎克这个问题来自以色列的莱德斯·洛夫、约西斯·洛夫和丹·戈芬。他们写信给巴菲特先生和芒格先生:“你们认为美国运通在消费者心中的‘心智份额’足以赢得信用卡竞赛吗?你们如何看待美国运通当前相比过去的竞争地位?和过去相比,谁是最具威胁的竞争对手?”
BECKY QUICKThis question comes from Leiders Luff (PH), Yosis Luff (PH), and Dan Gorfung (PH) of Israel. And they write to both Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger, "Do you think that AmEx's share of mind is enough to win the credit cards race? How do you see AmEx's competitive position now compared to the past? And who is the most threatening competitor now, compared to the past?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,人人都是竞争对手,现在还包括苹果。它刚刚推出了一张卡,我想是和高盛合作的。每个人——在我看来,这个行业永远会有很多很多竞争对手。银行不能放弃这个领域。这是一个增长的领域。他们靠它积累应收账款。但我不会把信用卡业务看作单一模式的业务,就像我不会把汽车业务看作是单一模式一样。我的意思是,法拉利会赚很多钱,但它只占市场的一部分。美国运通在全世界范围内增长个人客户,也在全世界范围内增长小企业客户。你刚刚看到他们与达美航空签的合同——这可能是理想的合作伙伴——期限是,八年还是九年,或者实际上是九年还是十年。你知道,人均账单在增长,覆盖范围在扩大。他们会面临大量的竞争,而且一直如此。但是,他们也有优势——这是件有意思的事——摩根大通,你知道,推出了白金卡。它是竞争对手,而美国运通白金卡的续卡率达到了有史以来最高。在竞争大战中,他们大概把年费从 450 美元涨到了 550 美元,结果留存率提高了,新业务也增加了,大约 68% 的新客户是千禧一代。我的意思是,这是一种与其他任何产品都不完全相同的产品。作为一张高端卡,它拥有庞大的客户群。它可能只占市场 X%,可能是 X% 的四分之三,或者其他什么比例。它不适合那些喜欢持有五张卡、每天看哪张卡当天在哪个加油站之类的地方提供最高回报的人。但它拥有一个非常庞大的用户群体,其续卡率、使用率让业内其他所有人羡慕。所以,我非常看好我们对美国运通的投资。查理?查理,对美国运通有什么要说的吗?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, everybody's a competitor, including now Apple. It has just instituted a card, I guess, in conjunction with Goldman Sachs. Everybody — there will always be, in my view, many, many competitors in the business. Banks can't afford to leave the field. It's a growing field. They build up receivables on it. But I wouldn't think of the credit card business as a one-model business any more than I would think of the car business as essentially being one model. I mean, Ferrari is going to make a lot of money, but they're going to have just a portion of the market. Well, AmEx is growing around the world with individuals, it's growing around the world with small businesses. You just saw the contract they made with Delta — which is probably the ideal partner— that runs, what, for eight or nine, whatever it may be, nine or 10 years, actually. You know, the billings go up per capita, they go up — the coverage spreads. And they're going to have loads of competition, and they always will. But they had — you know, that's something — J.P. Morgan, you know, took on the Platinum Card. It was a competitor, and the Platinum Card had the highest renewal rates that they've had. And they increased the price I think from 450 to $550 during a competitive battle, and retention improved, and new business improved, and 68 percent or so of the new business was millennials. I mean, it is a — it is not an identical product with anything else. And as a premium card, it has a clientele which is large. It may only be — it may be X percent of the market, it may be three-quarters of X percent, or whatever it may be. It isn't for the person that likes to have five cards and look every day at which one provides the most rewards that day or in what gas stations or something of the sort. But it's got a very large constituency that has a renewal rate, a usage rate, that's the envy of everybody else in the industry. So, I like our American Express position very well. Charlie? Charlie, anything on American Express?
查理·芒格不。(笑声)不,只要技术不变,我认为我们就拥有全世界。
CHARLIE MUNGERNo. (Laughter) No, I think we own the world as long as the technology stays the same.
沃伦·巴菲特不,我们——这是个有趣的事。
WARREN BUFFETTNo, we — it's an interesting thing.
查理·芒格我对技术没有看法。
CHARLIE MUNGERI have no opinion about technology.
沃伦·巴菲特今年——(笑声)——科技不是全部。我是说,你们知道,所幸如此。我是说,它——如果你看看信用卡的使用情况,有很多不同的因素在驱动不同的人使用不同类型的支付系统。其中很多都在增长,有一些则处于边缘。而美国运通是一家非凡的企业。我认为今年,我们的盈利份额——唔,到明年,我们在美国运通的盈利份额将相当于我们的买入成本。我们将在这个持仓上获得百分之百的收益,而且我认为它还会增长。我认为持股数量会减少,而我们的权益会增加,不用我们掏一分钱。所以,这——
WARREN BUFFETTThis year — (laughter) — the technology is not the whole thing. I mean, you know, fortunately. I mean, it — If you look at credit card usage, there are a lot of different things motivating different people to use different various types of payment systems. And there's a lot of them that are growing. There are some of them that are marginal. And American Express is an extraordinary operation. And I think this year, our share of the earnings — well, by next year, our share of the earnings of American Express will be equal to the cost of our position. We'll be earning a hundred percent on what that position cost us, and I think it will grow. And I think the number of shares will go down and our interest will go up without us laying out a dime. So, it's —
查理·芒格就像你说的,如果世界不变,我们就拥有全世界。
CHARLIE MUNGERAs you say, we own the world if it doesn't change.
沃伦·巴菲特唔,就算变了一些也没事。世界已经变了很多。美国运通成立于 1850 年。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, even if it changes some. The world has changed a lot. American Express was formed in 1850.
查理·芒格不,我说的是微信。
CHARLIE MUNGERNo, I'm talking about WeChat.
沃伦·巴菲特你可以谈各种竞争对手,但是——
WARREN BUFFETTYou can talk about all kinds of competitors, but —
查理·芒格是啊。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah.
沃伦·巴菲特不过——美国运通其实是一家快递公司,1850 年成立,说起来,还是由富国和法戈这几位创办的。你知道,有一段时间他们到处运送装满贵重物品的大箱子。后来铁路兴起了,那一套就越来越行不通了,于是他们转做旅行支票。这事很有意思。1950 年,我住在百老汇 116 街,那时他们在百老汇 65 号,是旅行领域首屈一指的名字。他们的旅行支票就是诚信的代名词。而整家公司,在一个旅游业创纪录的年份,赚了 300 万美元。300 万美元。一个债券交易员在今天这辈子能赚到的钱,他们就那点——而且他们靠的就是旅行支票这项业务,如今这业务基本已经消亡。但美国运通,凭借那个品牌的力量,加以巧妙运用,进入了信用卡业务——他们进入的时间比大来卡晚很多,比 Carte Blanche 也晚——但却最终主导了信用卡的高端市场。这是一个了不起的故事,我很高兴我们持有 18% 的股权。
WARREN BUFFETTBut the — American Express actually was an express company, formed in 1850, like I say, by Wells and Fargo, of all people. And, you know, for a while they carried these big trunks around of valuables. And then the railroads came along and that wasn't going to work very well anymore, so they went into traveler's checks. And it's a very interesting thing. In 1950, when I was living at 116th and Broadway, they were down at 65 Broadway, and they were the most important name in travel. They were synonymous with the integrity of their traveler's checks. And the whole company, in a record year for travel, earned $3 million. $3 million. What a bond trader earns now in my lifetime, that's what they've done with — and their hand going in was the traveler's check, which has more or less disappeared. But American Express, the power of that brand, intelligently used, going into the credit card business, where they entered much later than the Diners Club, later than Carte Blanche, but they came to dominate the luxury end of the credit card business. It's a fantastic story, and I'm glad we own 18 percent of it.
[章节][要点] 西方石油找我们要 100 亿美元贷款,因为我们能快速搞定
Occidental came to us for a $10B loan because we could do it quickly
沃伦·巴菲特好的,杰伊?
WARREN BUFFETTOK, Jay?
杰伊·盖尔布其实,我想问一件关于西方石油的事。我有点意外,到现在还没人问到。伯克希尔已承诺以 8% 的优先股外加认股权证的形式,为西方石油拟收购阿纳达科石油提供 100 亿美元融资。这是自 2013 年收购亨氏以来,伯克希尔首次做出如此大规模的优先股投资。就业务层面而言,西方石油这笔交易的吸引力在哪里?我们是否应该预期,未来还会出现其他大型融资交易,作为伯克希尔配置部分超额现金的途径?
JAY GELBActually, I'm going to ask something about Occidental Petroleum. I'm surprised it hasn't been asked yet. So, Berkshire has committed to providing $10 billion in financing in the form of an 8 percent preferred share and attached warrants for Occidental's proposed acquisition of Anadarko. This is the first time Berkshire has committed to such a large preferred share investment since the acquisition of Heinz in 2013. What did you find attractive about the Occidental deal, in terms of its business? And should we expect other large financing transactions in the future, as a way for Berkshire to deploy a portion of its excess cash?
沃伦·巴菲特我认为西方石油这笔交易不会是我们做的最后一笔。(笑)可能一个月后就有一笔,也可能三四年后才会出现。不会一模一样。我希望规模更大。但关键是,我们很可能会接到电话,因为有些事情我认为——没有哪家机构能做到。我是说,他们那边有各种委员会要审批,他们想要所谓 MAC 条款,也就是重大不利变化条款。他们想加这个加那个。如果有人在交易中需要一大笔确定无疑的钱,你知道,他们知道可以在星期五下午给我打电话,星期六和我碰面,星期天就全部办妥。他们百分之百确信自己拿到了 100 亿美元,而且我们不会告诉他们该怎么设计交易结构,不会干涉任何事。钱他们拿到了。未来总有某些时候,会出现一些不完全相同但类似的东西,而我们就是他们应该打给的那个。我希望规模能超过 100 亿。不过——有可能是——你知道,在未来五年里,我们也许会做——我们也许会在类似但不完全相同的事情上,再投很多钱,额外追加资金。也可能什么都不会发生。不过,如果有那种 100 亿、200 亿,甚至 500 亿美元级别的两天即决交易,如果这世上存在这种交易的话,相信我,他们一定会想到伯克希尔·哈撒韦,一定知道要打哪个号码。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTI don't think the Occidental transaction will be the last one we do. (Laughs) There may be one, you know, in a month. They may be one three or four years from now. It won't be identical. I hope it's larger. But the point is, we're very likely to get the call because we can do something that really I don't think — no institution can do it. I mean, they've got committees that have to pass on it, and they want to have so-called MAC clauses, Material Adverse Changes. They want to do this and that. And if somebody wants a lot of certain money for a deal, you know, they've seen that I can get a call on Friday afternoon, and they can make a date with me on Saturday, and on Sunday, it's done. And they absolutely know that they have $10 billion and we're not going to tell them how to structure their transaction or do anything else. They've got it. And there will be times in the future when something, not identical, but similar, comes along, and we're the one to call. And I hope its larger than 10 billion. But — It could be — it could be we'll do — you know, in the next five years. It could be we'll do a lot of money, additional money in things similar to this, not identical. And it could be that nothing will happen. But if there are any $10 billion, or $20 billion, or maybe even $50 billion two-day transactions, if there are any in the world, believe me, they'll think of Berkshire Hathaway for sure in terms of what number to call. Charlie?
查理·芒格嗯,我挺喜欢的。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I like it. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特我们做完这笔——我第一个电话打给了罗恩·奥尔森,因为我担心他可能有利害冲突。大约十分钟后,他就——我告诉他我们——这件事必须在周一晚上之前办完。与此同时,西方石油也对凯威律师事务所说了同样的话。那晚在周一已经弄到很晚了,但所有文件都理顺了。芒格-托尔斯律所在洛杉矶,凯威在纽约,我在奥马哈。我其实没干那么多活;马克·汉堡做了大量工作。我周日下楼(笑)去跟西方石油的人会面时,马克还在加班忙别的事。这是那些了解我们、了解我们做事方式的人通力协作的成果,双方都有动力投入一切必要的人力。就像我说的,他们的董事会应该是在周一晚上 10 点开会批准的。但他们可以在周二早上公告,这正是他们想要的。而跟伯克希尔合作,他们就能做到。
WARREN BUFFETTI called Charlie as soon as we made the — I called Ron Olson first because I was worried that he might have a conflict. And in about ten minutes, he had — I told him we — it had to be done by Monday night. And Cravath was being told the same thing by Occidental. And it was very late on Monday light, but all the papers were put in order. And Munger, Tolles was in Los Angeles, and Cravath was in New York, and I was in Omaha. And I didn't do that much; Mark Hamburg did a lot of the work. He was at work on Sunday on other things when I went down (laughs) to meet with the Occidental people. And it was the product of people who understood us, understood how we operate, and both with an incentive to put all the manpower necessary on the job. And like I say, I think their board of directors met at 10 o'clock on Monday night to approve it. But they could announce it Tuesday morning, and that's what they wanted to do. And with Berkshire, they could do it.
[章节] 我们评估风险没有公式
We have no formula for assessing risk
沃伦·巴菲特好的,6 号麦克风。
WARREN BUFFETTOK, station 6.
现场股东下午好,我叫托尼·麦考尔,来自阿拉巴马州蒙哥马利。我的问题是,关于您那套严谨的风险评估方法,以及您如何将它同“坚持、决心和毅力往往是成功必备条件”这一事实相平衡?
AUDIENCE MEMBERGood afternoon, my name's Tony McCall and I'm from Montgomery, Alabama. And my question is about your disciplined risk evaluation approach and how you balance that with the fact that perseverance and determination and grit are often necessary for success.
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我倒不是——我当然喜欢和那些有决心、有毅力的人共事。不过我们并没有什么评估风险的公式,但在每一笔交易中,我们确实都会自己做风险与回报的计算。做可流通证券是这样,做私人投资是这样,直接投资一家企业也是这样。我们有时会犯错,将来也免不了会犯错。在这一行,做大量决策就不可能不出错。但我们不认为,搞一大堆委员会、一大堆电子表格之类的,能让流程——或结果——变得更好。它只是——你知道——如果我手下有一群人,他们会拼命揣摩我想要什么答案,然后告诉我我想听的话。我在 20 家上市公司里见识过这种套路。CEO 心里想做的事,他们或许会花很长时间才推演到那一步,但投行能推到那一步,内部委员会也能推到那一步,——或者说内部运营部门——也能推到那一步。那些计算——这跟阿吉特(·贾恩)做的保险业务一个道理。阿吉特会接到各种保险交易的电话,你得把整笔交易想透。关键在于你——你是否相当清楚自己在做什么?迈过这道坎之后,我们才接着算盈亏的数学预期,以及我们在任何一件事上最大能承受多少损失。如果我们认为回报更可能出现且与风险成比例,我们愿意承担听起来很大的损失。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I'm not — I certainly like determination and grit in the — with the people we work for. But we don't have any formula that evaluates risk, but we certainly make our own calculation of risk versus reward in every transaction we do. And that's true whether it's marketable securities, that's true whether it's private investments, that's true whether it's making an investment in a business. And sometimes we're wrong, and we're going to be wrong sometimes in the future. You can't make a lot of decisions in this business without being wrong. But we don't think the procedure — or the results — would be changed favorably by having lots of committees and lots of spreadsheets and that sort of thing. It just — you know — If I had a group under me, they would try and figure out what I wanted the answer to be, and they would tell me what I wanted to hear. And I've watched that approach at 20 public companies. And what the CEO wants to do, they may spend a lot of time getting there, but the investment banker gets there, and the internal committees get there, — or the internal operations — get there. The calculations are — it's the same as the insurance business with Ajit (Jain). Ajit gets calls on insurance deals, and you have to think through that deal. The main thing is you have — are you reasonably sure that you know what you're doing? And if it gets past that hurdle, then we go on to figure out the math of gain versus loss and how much loss we can afford to take in anything. And we're willing to take what sounds like large losses if we think that the rewards are more likely and proportional. Charlie?
查理·芒格我没什么可补充的。
CHARLIE MUNGERI've got nothing.
沃伦·巴菲特相当令人失望——伯克希尔上上下下都不用公式。我们不会坐下来写一堆,你知道——不会让员工工作到深夜去算来算去、捣鼓电子表格。如果最低预期回报率定在 15% 之类的,他们最后全都能算出 15.1 或 15.2,因为结果注定会是那样的。我的意思是,你会拿到你想听的数字,而且会做到极致。
WARREN BUFFETTIt's very disappointing — we have no formulas around Berkshire. We don't sit down and write a bunch, you know — have people work till midnight calculating things and putting spreadsheets together. And if the hurdle rate is 15 percent or something, having them all come out at 15.1 or 15.2, because that's what's going to happen. I mean, you're going to get the numbers you want to hear and to an extreme degree.
巴菲特讲述伯克希尔收到的一些不诚实商业提案
Buffett describes some of the dishonest business propositions it gets
沃伦·巴菲特我们从投资圈收到的那些方案——我得跟你们说一个例子,因为它很能说明问题。前几天我们接到一项提议——我会把数字稍微改动一下,免得有人对号入座——那是一家私人公司,比方说它一年赚 1 亿美元。然而,卖家和投行建议我们,应该把盈利视作一年 1.1 亿美元,理由是作为私人公司,他们必须用现金支付高管的薪酬,这笔钱做了费用化处理。但我们可以用股票期权之类的方式支付,那些是不计入费用的,或者被解释为其实不算数,这样一来,只要我们放弃一些我们本来就不想放弃的东西,就能报出 1.1 亿美元的盈利。但本质上——靠的可以说是会计上弄虚作假——我们就能多出 1000 万美元盈利,而他们希望我们为此掏钱,原因是他们自己做不到,我们能做。因此——话说到这份上,他们当然已经彻底失去我了。但——那些财技把戏,简直到了耸人听闻的地步。所有这些调整都是为了表明,这地方实际上应该——将会——赚得比过去更多。就是做生意嘛。还有一次,我们接到一家私募股权公司发来的东西,因为一个失误,我们收到了他们发给公司经理的一封邮件——就是那家私募股权公司发给旗下公司经理,让他做预测的邮件。他们告诉他把数字加上 15%,因为反正巴菲特都会打个 15% 或 20% 的折扣。(笑)所以干脆直接加 15%,好对冲他的保守倾向。你看,这不是什么体面的行当,查理会这么跟你说。(笑声)你还有更精彩的故事吗,查理?(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTThe proposals we see from the investment world — I've got to tell you about one because it illustrates what goes on. We received a proposition the other day — and I'll disguise the numbers a little bit so somebody can pick it out — but it was a private company, and we'll say it was earning a hundred million dollars a year. But the seller of the business and the investment banker suggested that we should look at the earnings as being 110 million dollars a year, because as a private company they had to pay their top people in cash, which was expensed. But we could pay them in stock options and things like that, which weren't expensed, or were explained as not really counting and therefore we could report 110 million dollars if we gave away something we didn't want to give away. But by essentially — by sort of lying about our accounting, we could add 10 million dollars in earnings, and they wanted us to pay them because they couldn't do it and we could do it. And therefore — at this point, they're losing me of course, totally. But it — it's just astounding the accounting games that are played. All the adjustments are why the place should really be — will be — earning more than before. It's a business. We also had one that came in from a private equity firm and by a mistake we got the email that was sent to the manager from the email from the private equity firm that owned it, to the manager, in terms of making projections for it. And they told them to add 15 percent because they said Buffett will discount it by 15 percent or 20 percent anyway. (Laughs) So just add 15 percent to offset his conservatism. You know, it's not an elegant business, as Charlie will tell you. (Laughter) You have any better stories, Charlie? (Laughter)
查理·芒格已经够糟糕的了。
CHARLIE MUNGERIt's bad enough.
沃伦·巴菲特好,安德鲁——
WARREN BUFFETTOK, Andrew —
查理·芒格确实够糟了。
CHARLIE MUNGERIt's really very bad enough.
安德鲁·罗斯·索金谢谢你,沃伦。我觉得——
ANDREW ROSS SORKINThank you, Warren. I think it's —
查理·芒格我们为什么要让我们的优秀公民去撒谎和欺骗?
CHARLIE MUNGERWhy do we want our leading citizens lying and cheating?
[章节][话题] 巴菲特会押注像特斯拉这样的汽车公司无法在汽车保险领域展开竞争
Buffett would bet against a car company like Tesla being able to compete on auto insurance
沃伦·巴菲特安德鲁?
WARREN BUFFETTAndrew?
安德鲁·罗斯·索金我想这是我最后一个问题,坦率地说它有两个部分,但都围绕同一个话题。埃隆·马斯克表示,特斯拉将开始为其汽车提供保险,并且由于特斯拉从道路上所有车辆收集的数据,它可以比一般保险公司定价更优。你谈到过自动驾驶汽车对保险业务的威胁。但汽车制造商自己进入保险业务,对 GEICO 又意味着什么呢?另外,在一个非常相似的话题上,特斯拉最近宣布转向仅限线上的销售模式。随着购车者越来越多地使用智能手机和互联网看车,几家传统汽车经销商也在缩减物业持有量。这对伯克希尔·哈撒韦汽车业务预示着什么?
ANDREWI believe it's my final question and admittedly it's a two-parter, but it's the same topic. Elon Musk says that Tesla will start to offer insurance for its cars and can price it better than a typical insurance company because of the data it collects from all of the vehicles on the road. You've talked about the threat of autonomous vehicles on the insurance business. But what about to GEICO of automobile themselves getting into the insurance business? And on a very similar topic, Tesla recently announced that they are shifting to an online-only sales model. And several traditional auto dealerships are also reducing their property holdings as car buyers increasingly use smart phones and the internet to shop for cars. What does this portend for Berkshire Hathaway Automotive?
沃伦·巴菲特是的。实际上,通用汽车长期以来有一家名叫 Motors Insurance Company 的公司,各种公司都尝试过。我想说,汽车公司能做成保险业务的概率,大概跟保险公司能做成汽车业务的概率差不多。(笑声)就争取保险业务而言,跟所有我能看到的汽车公司的可能性相比,我更担心的是前进保险(Progressive)。这行当一点儿也不容易。我会押注任何一家汽车公司都不会在这方面取得什么异乎寻常的成功。利用远程信息处理技术来研究人们的驾驶习惯,这种做法正在相当广泛地普及。掌握人们怎么开车、刹车有多猛、转向有多急等各种数据,确实很重要。所以我不怀疑这些数据的价值,但我不认为汽车公司会因此获得什么优势。我不认为他们能在保险业务里赚到钱。用互联网选车,就跟用互联网选任何东西一样。这是另一个竞争者。毫无疑问,人们会寻找更好的方式。新车毛利率大约是 6% 左右。所以这个游戏里没有太多腾挪的空间。但这会是一种方式,也能卖出一些车。而且,你知道,它不过是另一个竞争者罢了。但我不认为这会摧毁那些用心服务客户、能提供售后支持的汽车经销商。它不是那种压倒性的威胁,但显然会一直存在,也会卖出一些车。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Actually, General Motors had a company for a long time called Motors Insurance Company and various companies have tried it. I would say that the success of the auto companies getting insurance business are probably about as likely as the success of the insurance companies getting into the auto business. (Laughter) I worry much more about Progressive than all of the auto company possibilities that I can see, in terms of getting insurance business. It's not an easy business at all. And I would bet against any company in the auto business being any kind of an unusual success. The idea of using telematics, in terms of studying people's drivers habits, that's spreading quite widely. And it is important to have data on how people drive, how hard they break, how much they swerve, all kinds of things. So, I don't doubt the value of the data but I don't think that the — the auto companies will have any advantage to that. I don't think they'll make money in the insurance business. Using the internet to shop for cars is like, you know, using the internet for shopping for everything. It's another competitor. And there's no question that people will look for better ways. The gross margin on new cars is about 6 percent or thereabouts. So, there's not lots of room in the game. But that will be a method and that will sell some cars. And if there are, you know — it's another competitor. But I don't think it destroys the auto dealer who takes good care of the customers and is there to service the customers. It's not an overwhelming threat, but it's obviously something that's going to be around and will sell some cars. Charlie?
查理·芒格还是没有。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERAgain, nothing. (Laughter)
[章节] 巴菲特:我把全部财富押在伯克希尔文化的存续上
Buffett: I'm betting all my wealth on the survival of Berkshire's culture
沃伦·巴菲特好。格雷格?
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Gregg?
格雷格·沃伦沃伦,伯克希尔多年来成功的很大一部分原因,在于你和查理一直享有耐心等待的奢侈,能够静候合适的时机,把多余的资本投入使用,即使这会造成资产负债表上堆积大量现金。历史上这对股东非常有利,因为你和查理能够充分利用股市和信贷市场的动荡,或者像我们看到的西方石油(Oxy)交易那样的特殊情形,协商出最终有利于伯克希尔股东的条款。话虽如此,你们持有这么多现金的决定也伴随着机会成本,而投资者一直愿意承担这一成本,主要是放弃了多余资本的回报、股息和股票回购,同时接受现金持有收益较低的现实。展望未来,一旦你们不再掌舵,我们有多大把握这种情况仍会继续,尤其是随着时间推移,伯克希尔的预期回报可能降低?伯克希尔的下一任管理者是不是更有可能不得不带领公司从收购和投资平台,最终转变为一个向股东返还资本的工具?
GREGG WARRENWarren, a lot of Berkshire's success over the years has come from the fact that you and Charlie have had the luxury of being patient, waiting for the right opportunities to come along to put excess capital to work, even if it has led to a buildup of large amounts of cash on the balance sheet. This has historically worked out well for shareholders, as you and Charlie have been able to take full advantage of the disruptions in equity and credit markets or special situations like we saw with the Oxy deal, to negotiate deals on terms that ultimately benefit Berkshire shareholders. That said, there is an opportunity cost attached to your decision to hold onto so much cash, one that investors have been willing to bear, primarily by forgoing a return of excess capital, dividends, and share repurchases, as well as seeing lower returns on cash holdings. As we look forward, how certain can we be that this will still be the case once you're no longer running the show, especially if Berkshire's returns are expected to be lower over time. And is it not more likely that the next managers at Berkshire will have to manage the eventual migration of Berkshire from an acquisition and investment platform to a returning capital to shareholders vehicle?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯。这当然是一种可能性。我是说,在我掌舵期间这是一种可能性。在继任者任期内也是一种可能性。问题在于,你能不能把真正庞大的资金运作得相当不错。你没法像运作小资金那样运作大资金。这一点毫无疑问。但我们必须经过很多年才能看清结果如何,因为有些年份机会很多,巨大的机会自己冒出来,而另一些年份则完全是干窟窿。所以,这不是你能在一年或三年内做出的判断。不过,随着时间的推移,这当然是一个你能做出的判断。就我个人而言——我的遗产在相当长一段时间里,基本上只会持有伯克希尔的股票,之后才会逐步分配给慈善机构。我在遗嘱中有一条,实际上是告诉受托人——遗嘱里写着——从我的立场出发,你们不受受托人通常应该分散投资之类法律规定的约束。我希望他们手头持有的全部金额在逐步分配给慈善机构期间,始终留在伯克希尔。我一点儿也不担心这个事实——我希望能有一大笔钱交给慈善机构,而完全不担心它几乎全部集中在伯克希尔。我活着的时候愿意做出这个决定,而在我死后它还会延续好些年。所以,我对伯克希尔文化延续下去的能力非常有信心,而且我们有合适的人来确保这一点实现。我把我的全部净资产都押在这上面。这完全没有让我感到犹豫。我每隔几年重写一次遗嘱,关于伯克希尔持股的部分,写的都是同样的内容。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Well, that's certainly a possibility. I mean, that's a possibility under me. It's a possibility under the successor. I mean, it's a question of can you invest truly large sums reasonably well. You can't do it as well as you can do small sums. There's no question about that. But we will have to see how that works out over many years because certain years lots of opportunities, huge opportunities, present themselves and other years there are totally dry holes. So that's not a judgment you can make in a one-year period or a three-year period. It's certainly a judgment you can make over time though. And I personally — my estate will have basically nothing but Berkshire in it for some time as it gets disbursed to philanthropies. And I have a section in there which says to the trustees, in effect, to manage it — I have a section in there that says — ignore the — your exempt, from my standpoint, from the law that trustees normally should diversify and do all that sort of thing. And I want the entire amount that they have to be kept in Berkshire as they distribute it over time to the philanthropies. And I don't worry at all about the fact — I would like to have a very large sum go to the philanthropies, and I don't worry at about the fact that it essentially will all be in Berkshire. And I'm willing to make that decision while I'm alive, which will continue for some years after I die. So, I have a lot of confidence in the ability of the Berkshire culture to endure and that we have the right people to make sure that that happens. I'm betting my entire net worth on that. And that doesn't give me pause at all. I rewrite my will every few years, and write it the same way in respect to the Berkshire holdings. Charlie?
查理·芒格我不持有任何指数基金。我一直只愿意持有两三只股票。法学院和商学院里所有教金融的人都说我这么做是错的,我并不在意。它没错。它一直运作得非常好。我认为,如果你知道自己在做什么,你不需要一个 50 只股票的组合。我希望我的继承人就这么坐着不动。
CHARLIE MUNGERI don't own any indexes. And I have always been willing to own just two or three stocks. And I have not minded that everybody who teaches finance in law school and business school teaches that what I'm doing is wrong. It isn't wrong. It's worked beautifully. I don't think you need a portfolio of 50 stocks if you know what you're doing. And I hope my heirs will just sit.
沃伦·巴菲特我的继承人倒希望我改遗嘱。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTMy heirs hope that I'll change my will. (Laughter)
[章节] “人生中拥有合适的伙伴极为重要”
"Having the right partners in life is enormously important"
沃伦·巴菲特好,7 号话筒。
WARREN BUFFETTOK, station 7.
现场股东嗨,下午好,巴菲特先生、芒格先生。我叫 Bill He(音),来自加拿大温哥华。你们两位是一对标志性的搭档。在我成长过程中,一直觉得你们的投资策略令人十分钦佩。所以我的问题是,当你们两人之间出现分歧时,你们会怎么处理?
AUDIENCE MEMBERHi. Good afternoon, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. My name is Bill He (PH), and I'm from Vancouver, Canada. You two make up an iconic duo. And growing up, I found your investment strategies very admirable. And so, my question is, how do you deal with conflicts when they arise between the two of you?
沃伦·巴菲特你是指我们个人做事时与通过伯克希尔行事之间产生的冲突吗?还是——哦,是问你们两人之间。我和查理——大家可能觉得难以置信——但我们 60 年来从没吵过架。我们有过不同看法,以后可能偶尔还会对某些事有分歧。但如果你把吵架定义为情绪上头、动怒之类的事,那在我们之间压根没发生过。我觉得查理比我聪明,但我也认为,有些事我投入的时间比他多。有时候我们都觉得自己是对的。通常最后还是按我的想法来,因为查理愿意顺着我,而且当我出错时,他从来没说过“早就告诉过你”这种话。反过来,如果他做的什么事后来证明是错的,我做梦也不会去对他指手画脚。我们之间基本上永远不会产生冲突。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTAre you applying personal conflicts in terms of doing something ourselves versus having Berkshire, do it? Or — oh, between the two of you. I'm just in — Charlie and I literally, and people find this hard to believe, but in 60 years we've never had an argument. We have disagreed about things and we'll probably keep occasionally disagreeing about this or that. But if you define an argument as something where emotion starts entering into it, or anger or anything of the sort, it just doesn't happen. I think that Charlie is smarter than I am, but I also think that there are certain things where I've spent more on them than he has. And sometimes we both think we're right. And generally, I get my way because Charlie is willing to do it that way and he's never second-guessed me when things have been wrong. And I wouldn't dream of second-guessing him if he were doing something that was wrong — that turned out to be wrong. We will never have a conflict, basically. Charlie?
查理·芒格嗯,问题不在于我们相处了多久、相处得如何,问题在于等我们离开后,公司会怎么样?答案是:没问题。它会运转得很好。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, the issue isn't how long — how we get along, the issue is how is the company going to work when we're gone? And the answer is fine. It's going to work fine.
沃伦·巴菲特我们确实很幸运,我遇见他时才,好像是 28 岁吧。我们曾在同一家杂货店打过工,而他长大的地方离我现在住的地方还不到一个街区,等等。但在 28 岁之前,我压根不知道查理·芒格是谁——(笑)——等到我 28 岁才知道。不过很显然,我们看世界的方式很合拍,在商业决策上也基本一致。查理做的事会比我少一些,但那是因为我把时间都花在这上面了,而他可能正在设计宿舍楼什么的。(笑声)我们都按自己的方式忙个不停,这样分工我们也乐在其中。但你真的需要好好经营——我是说,人生中选择合适的伙伴,尤其是找到合适的配偶,但同时拥有对的人生伙伴,这极其重要。我的意思是,无论个人生活还是商业中,有人同行会更有乐趣,大概率也能做成更多事。但更关键的是,你整个人生体验会更好。要是独自憋在小房间里炒证券赚了一大笔钱,却从来不跟别人交往,那真的一点意思也没有。所以,我建议找一位——嗯,查理在电影里给过一个建议:去找那个愿意接纳你的人之中最出众的,差不多这意思吧。(笑)目标得设得实际一点。
WARREN BUFFETTWe're lucky that, you know, I ran into him when I was, what, 28 years old. And — we both worked in the same grocery store and he grew up less than a block away from where I now live and everything. But I did not know who Charlie Munger was — (laughs) — until I was 28. But clearly, we're in sync in how we see the world. And we're in sync on business decisions, basically. Charlie would do fewer things than I would, but that's because I'm spending my time on this while he's designing dormitories or something. (Laughter) And we both keep busy in our own ways. And we have a lot of fun dividing the labor like we do. But you really want to work — I mean, having the right partners in life, particularly the right spouse, but having the right partners in life is enormously important. I mean, it's more fun with a partner, both in personal life and in business life. And you probably get more accomplished, too. But you just have a better time. It would not be any fun to do work in a little room and make a ton of money trading around securities but never working with another human being. So, I recommend finding — well, Charlie gave some advice in the movie, finding the best person that will have you or something like that. (Laughs) Sort of a limited objective.
查理·芒格不过,如果你是一名收藏家,而且手头一直不缺钱,想要活得开心并不难。收藏本身就很有乐趣。你想想看——你认识了一辈子的人里面,那些搞收藏又不缺钱的,有哪个收藏得不开心的?这就是为什么我们一辈子都在收藏。你知道,这事特别有意思。总有一块新石头等着你翻过来看看。其乐无穷。
CHARLIE MUNGERBut it's not hard to be happy if you're a collector and don't run out of money. Collecting is intrinsically fun. Just think who — how many people who you've known your whole life who were collectors who didn't run out of money, who weren't happy collecting? That's why we've been collecting all our lives. You know, it's a very interesting thing. There's always a new rock to be turned over. And it's interesting.
沃伦·巴菲特是啊。在某种意义上,我们也在收藏朋友,这些朋友让我们的生活更美好,我们也跟他们相处得很愉快。你选什么样的人当你的榜样或朋友,这一点极其重要。我在这方面的运气一直很好。说实话,正是因为一位名叫埃迪·戴维斯(Eddie Davis)的医生和他太太,查理和我才有机会相识。但只要你持续不断地做事,总有几件会带来非常幸运的结果。其中最美好的,就是那些需要跟别人打一辈子交道的缘分。我们的董事中有那么几位,就对我产生过类似深远的影响。所以,我建议找一位比你更出色的人,然后努力让自己变得像他们那样。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. And in a certain way we've collected friends that make our lives better and that we have a good time with. And it's very important, you know, who you select as your heroes or friends. And I've been lucky in this. I mean, it was only because of the doctor named Eddie Davis and his wife that Charlie and I even met. But if you keep doing enough things, some will work out very lucky. And the best ones are ones that involve lifelong involvement with other people. We've got some in our directors, a number of our directors, that have had similar impacts on me. So, I recommend that you look for somebody better than you are and then try to be like they are.
查理·芒格有意思的是,你瞧,这一路上我们也送别了一些人。沃伦的第一任秘书离开的时候,我心里想:“哦,天啊,她太棒了,格拉迪斯(凯泽,Gladys Kaiser)。我们再也找不到这么好的了。”结果贝基(阿米克,Becki Amick)更出色。(笑声)后来我们还有弗恩·麦肯齐(Verne McKenzie),他是一位极好的首席财务官。他退休后,现任的(马克·汉伯格,Marc Hamburg)还要出色。我们一直都很幸运。说不定股东们还能再幸运上几回。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERIt's funny, you know, we've lost people along the way. And when I lost Warren's secretary I thought, "Oh, my God. She was so wonderful. Gladys (Kaiser). We'll never get another one." Becki (Amick) is better. (Laughter) And then we had Verne McKenzie, who was a wonderful chief financial officer. He's gone and the current incumbent (Marc Hamburg) is better. We've been very lucky. And maybe the shareholders will be lucky a few more times. (Laughter)
能力圈:能拓展就拓展,但别强求
Expand you circle of competence if you can, but don't force it
沃伦·巴菲特好,8 号话筒。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Station 8. (Laughter)
现场股东嗨,沃伦。嗨,查理。我叫雅各布(音)。我是一名来自中国的股东,也是哥伦比亚商学院的毕业生,我以此为荣。谢谢你们邀请我们来到这里。(欢呼声)我的问题是,相比 40 年前,我们身处的世界变化快了很多,未来还会更快。在这样的背景下,对我们每个人来说,是应该随时间不断拓展自己的能力圈呢?还是应该固守原有圈子,哪怕会面临投资范围不断收窄的风险?谢谢。
AUDIENCE MEMBERHi, Warren. Hi, Charlie. My name is Jacob (PH). I'm a shareholder from China and also a proud graduate of Columbia Business School. Thanks for having us here. (Cheers) My question is, our world is changing at a faster pace today versus 40 years ago and even more so going forward. And in this context, for each of us individually, should we expand our circle of competence continuously over time? Or should we stick with the existing circle but risk having a shrinking investment universe? Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特这个嘛,显然无论什么情况下,你都应该去拓展自己的能力圈——
WARREN BUFFETTWell, obviously you should, under any conditions, you should expand your circle of competence —
查理·芒格如果你做得到的话。
CHARLIE MUNGERIf you can.
沃伦·巴菲特如果你做得到的话。对。(笑声)我自己的圈子这些年也稍微扩大了一点。不过——
WARREN BUFFETTIf you can. Yeah. (Laughter) And I've expanded mine a little bit over time. But —
查理·芒格要是做不到——那我会相当谨慎。
CHARLIE MUNGERIf you can't — I'd be pretty cautious.
沃伦·巴菲特对。这事不能强求。你知道,如果有人告诉我,我必须成为物理学专家,或者,你知道——
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. You can't force it. You know. If you told me that I had to, you know, become an expert on physics or, you know —
查理·芒格也许去跳芭蕾舞主角吧,沃伦。那可真是幅景象。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERDance maybe the lead in a ballet, Warren. That would be a sight. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特是啊,嗯。那我还真没想过——
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, well. That's one I hadn't really —
查理·芒格(听不清)现在。
CHARLIE MUNGER(Inaudible) now.
沃伦·巴菲特那个你可能在想,但我——(笑声)——我压根没想过。(笑声)不过,你知道,这很荒唐。但这并不意味着你完全不能拓展它。我的意思是,随着我参与一些生意,我在其中确实学到了一些东西。在某些情况下,我发现自己并不胜任,这实际上是个好事,因为你就把那个方向排除了。但这并不真的——世界会变化。它会持续变化。每天都在变。这让它变得有趣。你知道。随着它变化,当然在你认为你现有的能力圈内,你必须——你应该成为弄懂那个领域的大师,否则它真不是你的能力圈。如果你有机会随着时间推移稍微拓展它——我在与沃尔特(斯科特)和格雷格(阿贝尔)共事的过程中,对能源行业有了一些了解,但我的能力远不及他们。不过,我确实比过去知道得多了一些。所以,你有机会稍微扩大它。通常,我想你的核心能力很可能与你的思维方式相匹配。有些人我称之为有“金钱头脑”。他们在某些类型的金钱事务上表现出色。这倒不完全是智商问题。大脑是个非常奇怪的东西。人们有专长,无论是下棋还是打桥牌。我在不同的人身上看到过,他们能做到在我看来不可能的事情。而他们在其他领域却又,用查理的话说,相当愚蠢——(笑)——你知道。所以,继续在这上面努力吧。但不要觉得你必须扩大它,从而开始违反规则。查理,还有什么补充吗?
WARREN BUFFETTThat's one you may be thinking about, but I— (laughter) — it hadn't even occurred to me. (Laughter) But, you know, it's ridiculous. That doesn't mean you can't expand it at all. I mean, I did learn about some things as I've gone along in a few businesses. In some cases, I've learned that I'm incompetent, which is actually a plus, then you've discarded that one. But it doesn't really — the world is going to change. And it's going to keep changing. It's changing every day. And that makes it interesting. You know. And as it changes, certainly within what you think is your present existing circle, you have to — you should be the master of figuring that one out or it really isn't your circle of competence. And if you get a chance to expand it somewhat as you go along — I've learned some about the energy business from Walter (Scott) and Greg (Abel) as we've worked together, but I'm not close to their level of competence on it. But I do know more than I used to know. And so, you get a chance to expand it a bit. Usually, I would think normally your core competence is probably something that sort of fits the way the mind has worked. Some people have what I call a "money mind." And they will work well in certain types of money situations. It isn't so much a question of IQ. The mind is a very strange thing. And people have specialties, whether in chess or bridge. I see it in different people that can do impossible — what seem to me — impossible things. And they're really kind of, as Charlie would say, stupid in other areas — (laughs) — you know. So just keep working on it. But don't think you have to increase it and therefore start bending the rules. Anything further, Charlie?
查理·芒格没有了。
CHARLIE MUNGERNo.
在 100 万美元上赚 50% 很容易,但资金规模大了就难得多
It's easy to make 50% on a million, but much more difficult on larger amounts
沃伦·巴菲特9 号站。我们差不多——是的,我们还有时间再回答几个。
WARREN BUFFETTStation 9. We're just about — yeah, we got time for a couple more.
现场股东我叫约翰·多索(音),来自纽约。巴菲特先生,您说过,如果您管理一个 100 万美元的投资组合,您可以实现每年 50% 的回报率。您会用什么策略?是投资烟蒂股,也就是以极低价格买入平庸的公司?还是某种套利策略?谢谢。
AUDIENCE MEMBERMy name is John Dorso (PH), and I'm from New York. Mr. Buffett, you've said that you could return 50 percent per annum, if you were managing a one-million-dollar portfolio. What type of strategy would you use? Would you invest in cigar butts, i.e., average businesses at very cheap prices? Or would it be some type of arbitrage strategy? Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特那很可能就是套利策略,但很可能是以与常规套利非常不同的方式,而且大部分机会都如此。不管怎样,我可以向你保证,如果查理当时只有 100 万美元,或者我只有 100 万美元,我们就能找到一种方法,在基本没有风险的情况下做到那 50% 的回报率,而且不会使用大量杠杆或任何类似的东西。但当你把 100 万美元换成 1 亿美元,那 50% 的回报率就会像石头一样直线下降。市场上存在一些人们注意不到的小型边缘低效机会,你偶尔也确实能得到机会去做。但它们对伯克希尔来说实际上没有任何适用性。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTIt might well be the arbitrage strategy, but in a very different, perhaps, way than customary arbitrages, a lot of it. One way or another, I can assure you, if Charlie was working with a million, or I was working with a million, we would find a way to make that with essentially no risk, not using a lot of leverage or anything of the sort. But you change the one million to a hundred million and that 50 goes down like a rock. There are little fringe inefficiencies that people don't spot. And you do get opportunities occasionally to do. But they don't really have any applicability to Berkshire. Charlie?
查理·芒格嗯,我完全同意。你以前就说过,大笔资金会自带锚点。你就——事情变得越来越难。我见过一个又一个天才,业绩辉煌,但很快他们手里有了 300 亿,两层楼的年轻小伙子,然后好业绩就消失了。事情就是这样。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I agree totally. It's just you used to say that large amounts of money, they develop their own anchors. You're just — it gets harder and harder. I've just seen genius after genius with a great record and pretty soon they got 30 billion and two floors of young men and away goes the good record. That's just the way it works.
沃伦·巴菲特当查理——
WARREN BUFFETTWhen Charlie —
查理·芒格资金规模上去了,事情就难了。
CHARLIE MUNGERIt's hard as the money goes up.
沃伦·巴菲特查理最初当律师的时候,我是说,你当时开发了几个房地产项目。我的意思是,如果你确实想赚 100 万美元——或者说在 100 万上赚 50%——而且你愿意为之努力——这是可以做到的。但这对于管理巨额资金毫无适用性。希望它有,但就是没有。
WARREN BUFFETTWhen Charlie was a lawyer, initially, I mean, you were developing a couple of real estate projects. I mean, if you really want to make a million dollars — or 50 percent on a million — and you're willing to work at it — that's doable. But it just has no applicability to managing huge sums. Wish it did, but it doesn't.
查理·芒格是啊。李·洛利(音),仅靠他学生贷款的浮存金,毕业后不久几乎就有了 100 万美元,他完全是靠奖学金上的学。他找到了几件值得做的事,然后就做了。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. Lee Louley (PH), using nothing but the float on his student loads, had a million dollars, practically, shortly after he graduated as a total scholarship student. He found just a few things to do. And did them.
我们试过,但喜诗糖果在加州以外打不开局面
We've tried, but See's Candies gets no traction outside California
沃伦·巴菲特好,10 号站。
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Station 10.
现场股东你好,沃伦和查理。我是来自巴拿马的路易斯·科博(音)。我是伯克希尔·哈撒韦 10 年的骄傲股东。我一直在关注喜诗糖果,我算是它们的大粉丝。我看查理在整场会议中也挺爱吃的。而且就算我们消费了很多——你知道,过去几十年这家公司给我们带来了丰厚的利润。为什么你觉得它没有发展到玛氏或好时那样的规模,你觉得我们能做些什么来让这家公司成长,成为我们公司更大的一部分,毕竟产品这么棒?
AUDIENCE MEMBERHello, Warren and Charlie. I'm Luis Cobo (PH) from Panama. I'm a proud Berkshire Hathaway shareholder since 10 years ago. I've been looking at See's Candies, and I'm a pretty good fan of them. And I see Charlie is as well throughout our meeting. And even with all our consumption — and you know, the company has given us generous profits over the past decades. Why do you think the company has not grown to the scale of Mars or Hershey's, and what do you think we could do to make this company grow and become a bigger part of our company, being such an amazing product?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,几十年来我们大概有十来个想法。过去我们确实很专注这事,因为它在我们的业务里占比大得多。实际上,除了保险业务,这几乎就是我们全部的业务了。就像我说的,我们有十到十二个想法。有些我们试过不止一次。换了新经理后,他们也试过。但实话实说,没有一个能奏效。这个业务在非常小的利基市场里确实特别出色。盒装巧克力,人人都喜欢收到,或者当礼物送出去,买卖双方都开心。但自己买来吃的人相对较少。如果我在办公室打开一盒巧克力——我们就 25 个人——你知道,几乎转眼就没了。如果我把它当礼物送人,人家收到挺高兴。如果你在晚宴上把盒子打开放着,也会被一扫而空。但那些顺手就拿来吃的人,并不会经常跑到糖果店买给自己吃。他们不会买。它很大程度上是礼品类产品。全球范围内都不增长。很有意思的事。人们——我上次查的时候,西方人喜欢牛奶巧克力,东方人喜欢黑巧克力。西方人喜欢大块厚实的,东方人喜欢小块的。我们试过很多很多次,把它的销售范围扩大到其他地区。因为如果成功了,效果会非常好——它一旦成功,效果确实很不错。但这个模式不太好复制。如果我们在东部开家店,一开始客流量惊人,人人都说,“我们一直盼着你们来。” 最后呢——我们一家店每年做一定磅数的生意,但同样的店面面积,我们需要做到 1.5 倍才能有超棒的回报。我们什么都试过了,因为一旦成功,算起来回报太好了。总体来看,这个业务——巧克力消费一般来说增长不大。不过,查理,你说说——
WARREN BUFFETTWell, we've probably had a dozen or so ideas over the years. And we used to really focus on it because it was a much more sizable part of our business. In fact, it was practically our only business aside from insurance. And like I say, we've had 10 or 12 ideas. Some of them we tried more than once. And as we got a new manager they've tried them. And the truth is none of them really work. And the business is extraordinarily good in a very small niche. Boxed chocolates are something that everybody likes to receive, or maybe give it as a gift, both sides of it. And relatively few of the people go out and buy to consume themselves. If I leave a box of chocolates open at the office — we've only got 25 people — but it's gone, you know, almost immediately. If I take it as a gift to somebody, they're happy to get it. And if you leave the box open at a dinner party again, they're all gone. But those same people that so readily grab it when it's right there in front of them, do not walk out to a candy store very often and buy it just to eat themselves. They're not going to buy. It's very much a gift product. It does not grow worldwide. Very interesting thing. People in these — last time I checked, people in the west prefer milk chocolate, people in the east prefer dark chocolate. People in the west like big, chunky pieces. People in the east will take miniatures. We've tried to move it geographically many, many, many, many times. Because it would be so wonderful if it — when it works it works wonderfully. But it doesn't travel that well. If we open a store in the east, we get enormous traffic for a while and everybody says, "We've been waiting for you to come." And then it finally — we end up with a store that does X pounds per year when we need one and a half X in the same square footage to make terrific returns. And we've tried everything because the math is so good when it works. And overall, we have a business that doesn't — chocolate consumption generally doesn't grow that much. But yeah, go ahead Charlie —
查理·芒格是啊,我们没能把这家小小的糖果公司做成玛氏或好时,原因跟你们拿不到诺贝尔物理学奖并永垂不朽一样。(笑声)对我们来说太难了。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, well, we failed in turning our little candy company into Mars or Hershey's for the same reason that you fail to get the Nobel Prize in physics and achieve immortality. (Laughter) It's too tough for us. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特但我们投入了 2500 万美元。它给我们带来了超过 20 亿美元的税前利润,远远超过 20 亿。我们还用这些钱买了其他公司。如果我们是一家典型的公司,买了这个生意后,拼命想把所有留存收益都用在糖果业务里,我觉得我们肯定栽跟头了。我觉得这正好说明,你学到的那些公式,或者制定什么战略性计划把所有资金都用上——有些生意只能在相当有限的领域里运作。另一些则能大展拳脚——比如 Dr Pepper,我不知道现在占比多少,但在达拉斯可能有 10% 或 12% 的市场份额,或者 8%。然后你去底特律或波士顿,它连 1% 都不到。我不确定现在的具体数字。但你会想,在一个流动的社会里,Dr Pepper 从 1886 年可口可乐创立时就存在了——有些东西能传播开,有些东西不能,这真是神奇。知道吗,糖果棒——你提到了好时。我是说,吉百利在美国做得不怎么样,好时在英国也不行。瞧我们,大家都长得差不多。但不知怎么的,吃糖果棒的口味就是不一样。观察起来很有意思。那种认为所有生意都该遵循某种公式的想法——就像说,既然某种模式在 X 领域成功了,就应该在其他领域也找办法套用——这不对。我们很愿意在 A、B、C、D、E 或 F 领域中找机会——钱是可互换的。我觉得,实际上,拥有这种哲学对我们非常有利。查理,你还有补充吗?
WARREN BUFFETTBut we put 25 million dollars into it. And it's given us over two billion dollars of pre-tax income, well over two billion. And we've used it to buy other businesses. And if we were the typical company and had bought that business and tried desperately to use all the retained earnings within the candy business I think we'd have fallen on our face. I think that it just illustrates that all these formulas, you know, you learn or that having a strategic plan to use all the capital or something — some businesses work in a fairly limited area. Others really play out over this — Dr. Pepper, you know, has — I don't know what the percentage is now, but it might be at 10 or 12 percent market share or something like that in Dallas or maybe it's eight. And then you go to Detroit or Boston and it's less than 1 percent. I'm not sure about the numbers currently. But you'd think in a mobile society, you know, with Dr. Pepper having been around since the time that Coke was founded in 1886 — it's amazing how certain things travel, certain things don't travel. You know, candy bars — you mentioned Hershey. I mean, Cadbury doesn't do that well here and Hershey doesn't do that well in the U.K. And here we are, we all look alike. But somehow, we eat different candy bars. It's very interesting to observe. And the idea that you have some formula for businesses that provide that each one should pursue the course they're on because they made it in X, they should try to find other ways to make it in X. We're quite willing to find it in A, B, C, D, E, or F — the money is fungible. And I think, actually, it has worked very much to our advantage to have that philosophy. So, anything further, Charlie?
查理·芒格有一次,我晚宴上对一位写了本非常了不起的大人物说,“你知道吗,你再也写不出另一本那样的杰作了。” 他非常生气。后来我读了他之后四本书,完全说对了。(笑声)一生中写出一本伟大的书已经很了不起了。人们做不到更多,并不是在对你保留什么。这很难。
CHARLIE MUNGERI once told a very great man at dinner after he'd written a very great book, I said, "You know, you're never going to write another great book like that." And he was deeply offended. And I've read his four subsequent books and I'm totally right. (Laughter) To write one great book is a lot to do in one lifetime. And people aren't holding back on you when they don't do more. It's hard.
沃伦·巴菲特是啊。但你得把你第一个机会用到极致。(笑)
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. But you ought to make the most of the first one you got. (Laughs)
查理·芒格没错。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah.
沃伦·巴菲特是啊,你很幸运。你知道的。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, you're lucky. You know.
查理·芒格是的。
CHARLIE MUNGERYes.
沃伦·巴菲特我们非常幸运。我本来会把买喜诗糖果的机会搞砸,但查理基本上说的是,“别这么抠。” 结果我们还是以一个相当不错的价格买了下来。而且我们学到了很多——
WARREN BUFFETTAnd we were very fortunate. I would've blown the chance to buy See's Candy, but Charlie said, "Don't be so cheap," basically. And we still got it at a pretty good price. And we learned a lot —
查理·芒格我们这些年来学到的东西之多,真让人吃惊。
CHARLIE MUNGERIt's amazing how much we've learned over the years.
沃伦·巴菲特是啊,我们学到了——
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, we've learned —
查理·芒格要不是这样,业绩记录会差得多。
CHARLIE MUNGERAnd if we hadn't, the record would be so much worse.
沃伦·巴菲特没错。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah.
查理·芒格在任何时候,我们已知的东西都不足以带我们走下一步。这就是困难所在。想想你认识的所有那些人,他们试图多迈一步,结果掉下了悬崖。
CHARLIE MUNGERAt any given time, what we already knew was not going to be enough to take us to the next step. That's what makes it difficult. Think of all the people you know that have tried to take one extra step and have fallen off a cliff.
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,带着这个愉快的信息——(笑声)——我们结束会议吧。(掌声和欢呼)谢谢。谢谢。谢谢。谢谢,剩下的掌声存着明年用。我们明年可能需要它。把剩余部分转存,谢谢。我们 3 点 45 分会回来。我们会进行业务会议,它——我们没有——代理投票上没什么要投票的,但 15 分钟后我们会回到这里。如果你喜欢这个过程,你可以留下来旁观我们重新选举董事会。谢谢。感谢光临。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, on that happy note — (laughter) — we will conclude the meeting. (Applause and cheering) Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you, but save of it for next year. We may need it then. Just give us a carry-forward on the rest of it, and thank you. We'll come back at 3:45. We will conduct the business meeting, and it doesn't — we have no — nothing on the proxy to vote on, but we will be back here in 15 minutes. And if you enjoy a process, you can stick around and watch us reelect our board. Thank you. Thanks for coming.
正式业务会议与董事会选举
Formal business meeting and election of board members
沃伦·巴菲特会议现在开始。我是沃伦·巴菲特,公司董事长,欢迎各位参加 2019 年——2019 年股东年会。今天早上我介绍了到场的伯克希尔·哈撒韦董事。今天与我们在一起的还有我们的审计公司德勤的合伙人。Jennifer Tselentis 是伯克希尔·哈撒韦的助理秘书,她将负责会议的文字记录。Becki Amick 已被任命为本次会议的选举监察官,她将确认董事选举和本次会议表决的动议的投票结果。本次会议指定的代理投票持有人是 Walter Scott 和 Marc Hamburg。助理秘书有关于有权投票及出席本次会议的伯克希尔股票数量的报告吗?Jennifer?
WARREN BUFFETTThe meeting will now come to order. I'm Warren Buffett, chairman of the company and I welcome you to this 2019 — 2019 annual meeting of shareholders. This morning I introduced the Berkshire Hathaway directors who are present. Also with us today are partners in the firm of Deloitte and Touche, our auditors. Jennifer Tselentis is the assistant secretary of Berkshire Hathaway and she will make a written record of the proceedings. Becki Amick has been appointed inspector of elections at this meeting, and she will certify to the count of votes cast in the election for directors and the motions to be voted upon at this meeting. The named proxy holders for this meeting are Walter Scott and Marc Hamburg. Does the assistant secretary have a report of the number of Berkshire shares outstanding entitled to vote and represented at the meeting? Jennifer?
Jennifer Tselentis是的,我有。正如随会议通知一同寄送、发给 2019 年 3 月 6 日(本次会议股权登记日)所有登记股东的代理投票声明中所指出的,已发行的伯克希尔·哈撒韦 A 类普通股为 724,765 股,每股有权在会议表决的各项动议中投一票;已发行的伯克希尔·哈撒韦 B 类普通股为 1,371,697,551 股,每股有权在会议表决的各项动议中投 1/10000 票。其中,通过截至 5 月 2 日星期四晚上的代理投票,有 503,181 股 A 类股和 839,707,642 股 B 类股在本次会议上有代表出席。
JENNIFER TSELENTISYes, I do. As indicated in the proxy statement that accompanied the notice of this meeting that was sent to all shareholders of record on March 6, 2019, the record date for this meeting, there were 724,765 shares of Class A Berkshire Hathaway common stock outstanding, with each share entitled to one vote on motions considered at the meeting, and 1,371,697,551 shares of Class B Berkshire Hathaway common stock outstanding, with each vote entitled to 1/10,000th of one vote on motions considered at the meeting. Of that number 503,181 Class A shares and 839,707,642 Class B shares are represented at this meeting by proxies returned through Thursday evening, May 2nd.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。这个数字构成了法定人数,因此我们将直接进行会议。第一项议程是宣读上次股东会议的纪要,我请 Walter Scott 先生向会议提出一项动议。
WARREN BUFFETTThank you. That number represents a quorum and we will therefore directly proceed with the meeting. First order of business will be a reading of the minutes of the last meeting of shareholders, and I recognize Mr. Walter Scott, who will place a motion before the meeting.
Walter Scott我提议,免去宣读上次股东会议纪要的环节,直接批准该纪要。
WALTER SCOTTI move that the reading of the minutes of the last meeting of shareholders be dispensed with and the minutes be approved.
沃伦·巴菲特有人附议吗?
WARREN BUFFETTDo I hear a second?
Ron Olson我附议。
RON OLSONI second the motion.
沃伦·巴菲特动议已提出并获得附议。我们将通过口头表决对动议进行投票。所有赞成者请说“赞成”。
WARREN BUFFETTMotion has been moved and seconded. We will vote on the motion by voice vote. All those in favor say aye.
众声赞成。
VOICESAye.
沃伦·巴菲特反对者?动议通过。下一项议程是选举董事。如果有未提交代理投票、或希望撤销此前已提交的代理投票的股东在场,您可以亲自投票选举董事以及本次会议审议的其他事项。请向过道中的会议工作人员表明身份,以便您领取选票。我请 Walter Scott 先生就董事选举事宜向会议提出一项动议。
WARREN BUFFETTOpposed? The motion's carried. Next item of business is to elect directors. If a shareholder is present who did not send in a proxy or wishes to withdraw a proxy previously sent in, you may vote in person for the election of directors and other matters to be considered in this meeting. Please identify yourselves to one of the meeting officials in the aisles so that you can receive a ballot. I recognize Mr. Walter Scott to place a motion before the meeting with respect to election of directors.
Walter Scott我提议选举沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格、格雷格·阿贝尔、霍华德·巴菲特、斯蒂芬·伯克、苏珊·德克尔、威廉·盖茨、大卫·戈特斯曼、夏洛特·古曼、阿吉特·贾恩、托马斯·墨菲、罗纳德·奥尔森、沃尔特·斯科特和梅丽尔·威特默为董事。
WALTER SCOTTI move that Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Greg Abel, Howard Buffett, Stephen Burke, Susan Decker, William Gates, David Gottesman, Charlotte Guyman, Ajit Jain, Thomas Murphy, Ronald Olson, Walter Scott, and Meryl Witmer be elected as directors.
沃伦·巴菲特有人附议吗?
WARREN BUFFETTIs there a second?
Ron Olson我附议。
RON OLSONI second the motion.
沃伦·巴菲特动议已提出并获得附议,选举沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格、格雷格·阿贝尔、霍华德·巴菲特、史蒂夫·伯克、苏珊·德克尔、比尔·盖茨、大卫·戈特斯曼、夏洛特·古曼、阿吉特·贾恩、汤姆·墨菲、罗恩·奥尔森、沃尔特·斯科特和梅丽尔·威特默为董事。还有其他提名吗?或者有讨论吗?提名已经准备好可以进行表决。如果有股东要亲自投票,现在请填写董事选举的选票,然后把它交给过道中的一位会议工作人员。Amick 女士,您准备好后可以提交报告。
WARREN BUFFETTIt's been moved and seconded that Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Greg Abel, Howard Buffett, Steve Burke, Susan Decker, Bill Gates, David Gottesman, Charlotte Guyman, Ajit Jain, Tom Murphy, Ron Olson, Walter Scott, and Meryl Witmer be elected as directors. Are there any other nominations? Or any discussion? The nominations are ready to be acted upon. If there are any shareholders voting in person they should now mark the ballot on the election of directors and deliver that ballot to one of the meeting officials in the aisles. Miss Amick, when you are ready you may give your report.
贝基·阿米克我的报告已准备好。根据上周四晚上之前收到的代理投票,代理投票持有人投出的选票中,每位被提名人都获得了不少于 543,703 张赞成票。该数字超过所有已发行 A 类和 B 类股份总票数的半数。特拉华州法律要求的投票精确计数的认证文件将交给秘书,与本次会议记录一同存档。
BECKI AMICKMy report is ready. The ballot of the proxy holders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening, cast not less than 543,703 votes for each nominee. That number exceeds a majority of the number of the total votes of all Class A and Class B shares outstanding. The certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the votes will be given to the secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢,阿米克女士。沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格、格雷格·阿贝尔、霍华德·巴菲特、史蒂夫·伯克、苏珊·德克尔、比尔·盖茨、大卫·戈特斯曼、夏洛特·古曼、阿吉特·贾恩、汤姆·墨菲、罗恩·奥尔森、沃尔特·斯科特和梅丽尔·威特默当选为董事。现在——现在我们收到沃尔特·斯科特的动议。
WARREN BUFFETTThank you, Miss Amick. Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Greg Abel, Howard Buffett, Steve Burke, Susan Decker, Bill Gates, David Gottesman, Charlotte Guyman, Ajit Jain, Tom Murphy, Ron Olson, Walter Scott, and Meryl Witmer have been elected as directors. We now — we now have a motion from Walter Scott.
沃尔特·斯科特我动议休会。
WALTER SCOTTI move the meeting be adjourned.
沃伦·巴菲特有附议吗?
WARREN BUFFETTIs there a second?
罗恩·奥尔森我附议。
RON OLSONI second the motion.
沃伦·巴菲特休会动议已提出并获附议。现在进行口头表决。有需要进行讨论的吗?没有的话,赞成的请说“赞成”。
WARREN BUFFETTA motion to adjourn has been made and seconded. We will vote by voice. Is there any discussion? If not, all in favor say aye.
众人赞成。
VOICESAye.