苏格兰抵押投资信托 — 经理人回顾，截至2008年3月31日年报（詹姆斯·安德森）
过去五年，这份回顾一直在记载苏格兰抵押贷款信托（Scottish Mortgage）的演变过程：从一个以英国上市公司为主的、跟踪指数的区域性投资组合，转变为一个聚焦个股、由选股驱动的全球性长期投资实体。我们曾评论过自己对过度分散化的怀疑，也谈到市场因可疑的相关性和几近无意义的季度财报，而对暂时性股价波动产生的夸大恐惧。如今，在完成最后一次从英国股票再平衡之后，投资组合的结构已如我们所愿。因此，这份回顾将讨论一些对业绩至关重要的个股投资，以及一些未来可能至关重要的投资。
当前前五大持仓
淡水河谷（CVRD）（巴西）
CVRD，现更名淡水河谷（Vale），是全球最大的铁矿石公司。其储量的生产效率全球最高。产能以相对较低的成本大幅提升。自 2004 年持有以来，股价上涨了 475%。
显然，这一回报令人欣慰，但也提出了一个问题：淡水河谷的优势是否已完全被市场认可并折现？当初吸引我们的铁矿石市场特征之一是，全球一流产能集中在三家之手（淡水河谷、力拓和必和必托），定价由与大型钢铁制造商的年度价格谈判体系决定。这使该行业的回报比大多数大宗商品行业更好、更稳定。我们有些担心，这些特征在中国基础设施需求引发的空前繁荣压力下，正在开始瓦解。新的竞争对手正逐步进入市场，同时现货市场已经出现，而且从巴西（当前货币坚挺）出发的运输成本已飙升。与此同时，淡水河谷也受到诱惑，想利用其充裕的现金流，从那些成就了它的资产进行多元化。平心而论，我们认为收购镍矿商 Inco 的交易很有吸引力，因为它带来了在利润丰厚的镍矿市场获得真正经济特许权的前景，但我们一直不确定与 Xstrata 的谈判是否同样有利。因此，我们很高兴这些谈判已经终止，而管理层重新聚焦核心业务。
阿特拉斯·科普柯（Atlas Copco）（瑞典）
苏格兰抵押贷款信托持有这家瑞典工程公司已有十多年。转向全球策略后，我们大幅增加了持仓规模。此前，由于担忧其相对于欧洲甚至斯堪的纳维亚资产的规模，我们一直限制敞口，而其优秀的盈利能力却在核心压缩机业务中建立了强大的实力，展现了令人印象深刻的盈利水平和市场份额。最近，它还建立了一个强大的采矿设备部门，这个部门是在行业低迷时期组建的。由于目前超过 40% 的订单来自新兴市场，市场执迷于将过去美国经济衰退的幽灵视为阿特拉斯末日预兆的想法，显然是误判了。我们一直在稳步增持，并认为按当前股价该股票极具吸引力。
巴西国家石油公司（Petrobras）（巴西）
自 3 月底以来，由于市场对其在巴西深水海域钻探成功的前景重新感到兴奋，巴西国家石油公司已成为我们的最大持仓。其发现很可能是史上最大发现之一，同时技术难度也堪称最高。没有一家传统西方石油巨头拥有哪怕稍微接近的前景。
巴西国家石油公司捕捉到了我们投资哲学的核心方面。我们有幸看到，在过去五年里，该股市值上涨了十倍，但这一结果之所以能给我们带来显著利益，仅仅是因为我们愿意在不受指数权重和地域偏见约束的情况下，投资于最具吸引力的股票。同样，我们持有它是因为它潜力巨大，而不仅仅是为了拥有一个投资组合的类别。
作为对比，英国石油公司（BP）的资产中石油行业占比很高，但过去五年股价仅上涨了 28%。最近几周，巴西国家石油公司的市值甚至超过了 BP。不可避免的是，巴西国家石油公司的估值现在已部分反映了其巨大的储量潜力。我们未来的持仓规模将主要取决于，未来几年发现规模在多大程度上超过开发成本。
保时捷（优先股）（德国）
我们认为保时捷是一家被完全误解的公司。根据市场对美国经济活动和美元的情绪波动，再加上报纸头条大肆渲染保时捷和皮耶希家族所谓虚荣的野心，其股价剧烈震荡。
我们以完全不同的眼光看待保时捷。其首席执行官文德林·魏德金（Wendelin Wiedeking）是过去二十年全球最杰出的企业领导者之一。我们认为，保时捷对大众汽车不断加强的控制，是出于精明的经济判断，而非家族荣耀。保时捷正迅速将其原始品牌推向新兴市场的领先地位，以取代对伦敦和纽约银行家们一时冲动和奖金的依赖。鉴于保时捷的估值仍然反映了一种更为悲观、在我们看来已经过时的观点，我们仍是该股的忠实持有者。
俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司（Gazprom）（俄罗斯）
我们对俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的持仓一直存在争议。没有哪只股票让我们收到更多质疑的提问，也很少有股票能为我们的股东带来如此丰厚的回报（过去五年涨幅超过 750%！）。虽然我们不能保证俄罗斯不会出现不利的政治发展，但我们认为投资俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的胜算显著偏向我们这边。我们持有与俄罗斯政府相同的股票，认为政府的持续支持既对公司有利，在经济上也是合理的。期待乌克兰按市场价格支付天然气费用，以及期待国内价格自由化，都是合理的。担心俄罗斯的外国资源持有者，显然比担心俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司更理性。更重要的是，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的估值表明机会仍然非常显著。其储量的估值，按每桶计算，仅为西方公司的十分之一多一点。对于全球最大的储量基础而言，这是一个被夸大了的折价。我们认为，投资俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司所承担的风险，远比将资产配置给那些储量停滞或下降的西方巨头，更有可能获得回报。
潜在重要持仓
这五只股票在过去都帮助了我们的股东。我们相信它们未来也会继续如此，但我们还想指出几个我们在近几个月一直在增持、且对其未来寄予厚望的领域。如果说当前前五大持仓的风味概括了全球化和新兴市场工业化这些强大趋势，那么我们要强调的是，我们认为技术创新在未来几年塑造全球经济方面，几乎同样是一个关键力量。
投资科技公司需要愿意接受波动和多样化的回报，以寻找那些将被证明是其所在行业持续赢家的精选公司，但其回报可能是惊人的。在过去一年里，这场战斗以亚马逊的成功和易趣的挣扎为例证，但净效果是令人满意的。
可以想象，对美国消费者的担忧在近几个月严重伤害了许多这一领域的公司股价。我们认为，如果我们能保持耐心，这将给我们带来重大机会。特别是，我们已开始买入谷歌（Google）和任天堂（Nintendo），在我们看来，它们是异常强大的企业，其增长和价值将持续远超当前市场的紧张情绪。谷歌彻底改变广告业并颠覆传统软件市场的能力，似乎正在加速而非减弱。即使最佳机会期可能已经过去，我们仍打算继续买入该股。
就任天堂而言，我们欣喜地发现，在经历了近二十年的衰落之后，我们终于至少找到了一只令我们兴奋的日本股票，无论是其商业模式，还是其相对于可预见的回报的低估值。任天堂成功吸引了比传统游戏公司更广泛的参与者加入其 Wii 和 DS 平台，在我们看来，这代表了一种独特而深思熟虑的方法，奇特而又简单，却难以模仿。谷歌和任天堂都喜欢与微软竞争，这或许并非巧合。
最后，我们要强调我们在替代能源公司的敞口。这是一个困难、波动且复杂的领域，我们一些最深思熟虑的股东对当前的估值表示了怀疑，但总体而言，我们认为这仍然是未来扩张的一个引人入胜的领域。特别是，我们认为太阳能领域取得的进展非常鼓舞人心。我们估计，这应在 3 到 5 年内实现与传统能源的成本持平——完全在我们的投资期限内。我们试图利用这些股票过度的波动性，以有纪律的方式增持。我们看不出有什么合理的理由解释这个子板块在最近三个月的市场恐慌中崩盘，尤其是能源价格仍然高得令人不安。因此，我们增持了两家公司的股票，我们认为，技术进步和业务执行方面的活力已开始转化为结构性优势。一家是第一太阳能（First Solar），它是薄膜技术的明确领导者，最接近电网平价。其早期由沃尔顿家族（沃尔玛家族）的支持，现在即将在首批美国公用事业合同中收获回报。第二家是 Q-Cells，它已将德国有利的研究和补贴环境转化为规模和技术领导地位。这些公司的潜在规模和盈利能力，使我们能够容忍它们在整个投资组合背景下的估值。由于我们还持有两家丹麦公司的股份，即维斯塔斯（Vestas，风力发电）和诺维信（Novozymes，酶制剂），我们在替代能源领域的投资已显著推动了欧洲资产的选股型增长。
未来政策
我们的政策将保持过去五年所遵循的方向。如果未来几年能取得同样显著的成功，那将是一个愉快的惊喜。特别是，如果过去一年的经历——其中我们的前二十大持仓中只有两只全年持有全程并为绝对或相对业绩做出正贡献——被轻易重复，那将是奇怪的。事实上，如果我们不准备接受几乎必然会有几只持仓令人失望的结果，我们就不可能期望产生良好的整体回报。
抛开这些警示，我们对信托基金的未来感到乐观。在战术上，我们正在发现许多机会。如上所述，其中一些现在存在于焦虑不安的西方市场，以及亚洲和新兴市场的结构性增长领域。甚至还有一些银行，我们已忍不住开始买入——如果按记录日期来看可能还为时过早。出于这些原因，我们乐于看到杠杆水平略有上升。在我们看来，一个不再由英美消费者和银行家主导，而更多地受到中国、印度和巴西脱贫进程影响的世界经济，对股票投资者而言是一个更吸引人、更平衡的环境，而不是恐慌的理由。
从战略角度看，我们认为，一个真正全球化的方法——并辅以试图区分根本变化与困扰市场的杂乱噪音的纪律，以及借债能力与永久资本坚实基础相结合所提供的灵活性——其优势正变得比以往更有价值。我们需要不断努力利用这些优势，而不是陷入伪装成指数基金或报酬过高的对冲基金的陷阱。如果我们能做到这一点，那么在相当不错的运气下，前景是光明的。
Over the last five years this review has charted Scoltish Mortgage's evolution from a collection of index aware regional portfolios with a heavy bias to UK listed companies into a single focussed, stock-driven global entity investing for the long term We have commented on our suspicions of excessive diversification and the exaggerated fears of temporary share price volatility based on dubious correlations and near meaningless quarterly earnings releases We have now reached a point where the structure of the portfolio is as we would wish it after a final re-balancing away from British equities Therefore this review will discuss a selection of the individual investments that have been critical to our performance and some that may be vital in the future The Current Top Five CVRD (Brazil) CVRD or Vale as it is now to be called is the world's largest iron ore company Its reserves are the most productive to be found anywhere Production capacity has risen sharply at comparatively low cost We have owned the shares since 2004 since when they have risen 475% Plainly this return has been gratilying but it raises the question as to whether the virtues of Vale are now fully recognised and discounted by the markets One of the features of the iron ore market that attracted us was that world class capacily was concentrated in just three hands (Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP) and pricing was settled by OR ANNUAL REPORT 2008 a system of annual price negotiations with major steel manufacturers This translated into an industry with better and more stable returns than was the case for most commodities We have some concerns that these features are starting to break down under the pressure of the extraordinary boom induced by Chinese infrastructure demands New competitors are gradually entering the market whilst a spot market has appeared and as the cost of shipping from (now strong currency| Brazil has soared At the same time Vale has been tempted to use Its substantial cash flows to diversity away from the very assets that have made it great In fairness we found the deal to buy Inco appealing as it brought the prospect of a genuine franchise in the concentrating nickel market but we have been unsure that talks with Xstrata are likely to be as beneficial We were therefore glad that they have been core business Atlas Copco (Sweden) This Swedish engineering company has been owned by Scottish Mortgage for well over a decade The move to a global approach has led to a significant increase in the scale of our holding Previously the exposure has been limited by concerns over its size relative to European or even Scandinavian assets whilst its outstanding Underes protel cis as chives to boast formidable strength in its core compressor business which has shown impressive levels of profitability and market share More recently it has also built a powerful mining equipment division that was assembled at a time when the industry was in the doldrums With over 40% of orders now derived from emerging markets the obsessive desire of the market to see the ghosts of past US recessions as a harbinger of doom for Atlas seems miscalculated We have steadily been adding to our stake and regard the stock as highly attractive at current share prices Petrobras (Brazıl) Since the end of March Petrobras has become our largest holding by dint of renewed excitement over the prospects for Its drilling success in deep offshore Brazilian waters It appears probable that its finds may be amongst the largest discoveries ever made if also being amongst the most technically demanding None of the traditional Western oil majors has remotely comparable prospects Petrobras captures core aspects of our Investment philosophy We have been fortunate enough to have seen the market value of the shares rise tenfold over the last five years but this outcome could only have been of significant beneft to us because of our willingness to invest in the most altractive stocks without constraint by index weights and geographical preconceptions Equally we have owned it because of its great potential not simply to have a set 1 CVRD (or Vale) The world's largest iron ore producer 2 Petrobras Brazilian oil company - production capacity has risen and costs are low najor new discoveries this yea percentage of assets in the oil industry BP has risen only 28% in the last five years by comparison In recent weeks Petrobras has even exceeded BP in market capitalisation Inevitably the valuation of Petrobras now includes some acknowledgement of its dramatic reserve potential Our future holding size will depend principally on how far the scale of the discoveries outweighs the development costs in the years ahead Porsche (Preference shares) (Germany) We consider Porsche to be a thoroughly misunderstood company Its share price oscillates violently according to the mood of the markets about US economic activity and the dollar combined with screaming newspaper headlines pointing at the supposedly vainglorious ambitions of the Porsche and Prech families We see Porsche in a very different light Its Chief Executive, Wendelin Wiedeking, has been one of the outstanding global corporate leaders of the last twenty years We believe Porsche's growing control of Volkswagen is driven by shrewd economic assessment rather than dynastic pride Porsche is rapidly moving its original brand towards leading positions in emerging narkets to replace reliance on the whims and bonuses of bankers in London and New York Given that the valuation of Porsche still reflecis a more pessimistic and to our mind passe view we remain enthusiastic owners of the shares Gazprom (Russia) Our stake in Gazprom has been controversial There is no stock about which we receive more sceptical questioning and there are few stocks that have been more rewarding for our shareholders (with a gain of over 750% in the last five years! Whilst we cannot guarantee that there will not be adverse political developments in Russia we think that the odds are significantly in our favour in investing in Gazprom We own the same shares as the Russian government and regard its continued support as both beneficial to the company and economically justifiable lt is reasonable lo expect Ukraine to pay market prices for gas and to anticipate liberalisation of domestic prices It is surely more rational to be worried about foreign resource holders in Russia than about Gazprom Even more critically the valuation of Gazprom shares suggests hat the opportunity remains very significan Reserves are stil valued at litle more thar a tenth the level per barrel as for Western companies For the greatest reserve base in the world this seems an exaggerated discount We think the risks associated with investing in Gazprom are far more likely to be rewarded than those of allocating our assets to Western majors with stagnant of declining reserves Potentially Important Holdings All these five stocks have helped our shareholders in the past We believe they will continue to do so in the future but we would also like lo point to several areas which we have been adding to in recent months and about which we have great hopes for in the future If the flavour of the top five holdings encapsulates the powerful trends of globalisation and industrialisation of emerging markets then we would emphasise that we see technological innovation as almost as critical a force in shaping the global economy in the years ahead Investing in technology companies involves a willingness to accept both volatility and diverse returns in the search for the select band of companies that will prove lo be persistent winners in their sectors but the rewards for doing so can be dramatic In the lost year this battle has been exemplified by the success of Amazon and the struggles of eBay but the net effects have been pleasing As might be imagined anxieties over the US consumer have badly hurt the share prices of many companies in this area in recent months We think this is giving us significant opportunities if we can retain our patience n particular we have started buying Googl ind Nintendo which seem to us to be extraordinarily strong businesses whose growth and value will endure well beyond current market nerves Google's ability to revolutionise the advertising industry and to disrupt traditional software markets seems to be accelerating rather than fading We intend to continue buying the shares even if the period of greatest opportunily may now be past SCOTTISH MORTGAGE INVESTMENT TRUST PLODE 1 Porsche Strong brand, first class leadership and shrewd strategy In the case of Nintendo we are thrilled that after almost twenty years of decline we have now found at least one additional Japanese stock that excites us both in its business model and by its low valuation relative to its foreseeable returns Nintendo's success in attracting a far wider set of participants to its Wir and DS platforms than traditional gaming companies seems to us to be emblematic of a distinctive and thoughtful approach that is curiously simple yet hard to imitate That both Google and Nintendo relish competing with Microsoft is perhaps non-coincidental Finally we would highlight our exposure to alternative energy companies This is a difficult, volatile and complex field and some of our most thoughtful shareholders have expressed doubts about prevailing valuations but on balance we consider that this remains an intriguing area for future expansion In particular we think that the progress being made in solar power is deeply encouraging We estimate this ought to translate into parity of cost with traditional energy sources within 3-5 years - or well within our investment horzon We have tried to use the excessive volatility of these stocks to add to our holdings in a disciplined manner We see little sensible reason for the collapse of this sub-sector in the market nerves of the last three months especially since energy prices have remained so disconcertingly buoyant We have therefore added to our holdings in two companies IDANNUAL REPORT 2008 where we feel the dynamism of technical progress and business execution has begun to translate into structural advantages One, First Solar, is the clear leader in thin film technology and the closest to grid party Its early backing by the Walton family lof Walmart famel is now set to pay off in initial US utility contracts The second is Q-cells which hos turned a favourable research and subsidy environment in Germany into scale and technology leadership The potential scope and profitability of these companies reconciles us to their ratings within the overall portfolio context As we also have holdings in two Danish companies in the form of Vestas (wind power) and Novozymes (enzymes) our investments in alternative energy have significantly contributed to a stock driven rise in our European assets Future Policy Our policy will remain set on the course we have pursued over the last five years It would be a pleasant surprise if this were to prove quite as dramatically successful in the years ahead In particular it would be strange if the experience of the last year in which only two of our top twenty holdings held throughout the period! deducted fron absolute or relative performance were to be easily repeated Indeed we cannot hope to generate good overall returns unless we are prepared to accept the near inevitabilly of several holdings disappointing 2 China Mobile China Mobile is China's dominant mobile telecoms company with over 350m mobile subscribers These cautions aside we feel optimistic about the future of the Trust Tactically we are finding many opportunities As indicated above several of these are now to be found in the angst ridden markets of the West as well as in the structural growth areas of Asia and Emerging Markets There are even some banks that we have been tempted to start buying - if prematurely at the date of record For these reasons we have been happy to see gearing levels edge higher To our minds a world economy less dominated by Anglo American consumers and bankers and more exposed to the march of China, India and Brazil away from poverty is a more appealing and better balanced environment for equity investors rather than a cause for panic In strategic terms we feel that the advantages of a genuinely global approach run with the discipline to endeavour to distinguish underlying change from the cacophony of noise that preoccupies markets and offering the flexibility offered by the combination of the ability to borrow with a strong foundation of permanent capital is becoming ever more valuable It is these advantages that we constantly need to try to exploit rather than falling into the trap of behaving as a lightly disquised index fund or an extravagantly remunerated hedge fund If we can achieve this then the prospects are good given reasonable good fortune