有坏消息也有好消息
Fundsmith 股票基金成立仅 18 天,投资组合中第一只股票就传出被收购的消息——KKR 正在洽谈收购德尔蒙食品公司(Del Monte Foods)。
Just 18 days after the Fundsmith Equity Fund opened, the first takeover approach for a stock in the portfolio occurred with the news that KKR is in talks to buy Del Monte Foods.
从某个层面看,这是好消息。我们持有的德尔蒙股价已经上涨,若收购完成,还会进一步走高。这会提振基金的短期表现。
On one level this is good news. The price of our Del Monte stock has risen and will rise further if or when the takeover is completed. This will boost short term performance of the Fund.
但另一方面,这意味着我们将失去一只原本想长期持有的股票。我们买入德尔蒙时的自由现金流收益率约为 10%。对于一家优质公司来说,这是异常高的自由现金流收益率。我们认为,之所以能以如此诱人的自由现金流收益率买入德尔蒙,是因为没多少人真正了解它的业务。
But on the other hand it will mean that we will lose a stock which we wanted to own. We purchased Del Monte on a free cash flow yield of about 10%. This is an unusually high yield free cash flow yield for a good company. We think we were able to buy Del Monte at this attractive free cash flow yield because not many people understood what it does.
大多数人仍把德尔蒙看成一家生产罐装水果的公司(那些黏糊糊的桃子罐头,一定年龄的人都记忆犹新)。实际上,德尔蒙 45% 的销售收入和约 60% 的利润来自宠物食品,旗下品牌包括妙多乐(Meow Mix)、Kibbles 'n Bits、Pup-Peroni、Snausages、Milk-Bone、9Lives 和 Nature's Recipe。它其实是全球第五大宠物食品公司,专长是宠物零食和宠物食品的“拟人化”。我们特别喜欢的是 Snausages,这款产品被做成培根煎蛋的样子,专供狗当早餐。我们在 Fundsmith 办公室留了一包,提醒自己投的到底是什么。当然,日子过不下去的时候,它也许另有用途。
Most people still think of Del Monte as a producer of canned fruit (those cling peaches will be in the memory of everyone of a certain age). In fact 45% of Del Monte's sales revenues and about 60% of its profits were from pet foods, where it owns brands such as Meow Mix, Kibbles "Bits, Pup-Peroni, Snausages, Milk-Bone, 9Lives, and Nature's Recipe. It is in fact the fifth largest pet food company in the world. Its speciality is pet snacks and 'humanising' pet food. Our particular favourite is Snausages, which are made to look like bacon and eggs, for dogs' breakfasts. We keep a pack in the Fundsmith office to remind ourselves what we are investing in. Although if times get hard it may have other uses.
德尔蒙宠物食品业务的盈利能力之强,从利润贡献占比远超销售占比即可看出。作为美国增长最快的宠物食品公司,它能把充裕的现金流部分再投资,为投资者创造复利回报。
The superior profitability of Del Monte's pet food business is shown by the fact that its profit contribution significantly outweighed its sales percentage. As the fastest growing US pet food company, it was able to reinvest some of its good cash flow in compounding returns for investors.
我们喜欢宠物食品行业。这是典型的客单价低、快速消费、非耐用品,正是我们寻求的那类投资标的。这类产品的消费者往往有品牌忠诚度,没有议价空间,用完还得再买。他们无法像对待耐用品那样推迟重复购买。宠物食品是特别好的品类。研究显示,消费者宁可削减孩子的伙食开支,也不愿少喂宠物。
We like the pet food sector. It is a classic small ticket, consumer, non durable of the sort we seek to invest in. In these products consumers are often brand loyal, they have no opportunity to negotiate on price and when they have consumed the product, they have to buy more. They cannot defer repeat purchases as they often can with durable goods. Pet food is a particularly good product category. Research shows that consumers will cut down their expenditure on feeding their children before they will cut down on feeding their pets.
去问问任何一位兽医,哪个领域更赚钱。大型动物兽医服务以畜牧业为主,畜主必须精打细算;而小型动物兽医服务中,宠物主往往把宠物当家人,甚至当孩子养,愿意花数倍于买宠物的钱去治病。从宠物主的角度看,这不太符合商业逻辑,但正因如此,他们才是最值得服务的人群。
Ask any vet which is the more lucrative areas to work in. Large animal vets which are dominated by farming, where the owners have to be ruthlessly commercial; or small animal vets where owners often treat their pets like full member of their families, or even as child substitutes, and will pay many times the cost of a pet to treat it. That is not commercially logical on the part of the owners, but it makes them a great segment to sell to.
我们一直提醒投资者,不要因为投资组合短期按市值计价下跌而沮丧;同样,早期收购成功,我们也不会得意忘形,对吧?
So just as we have warned investors not to become dismayed by short term mark to market falls in the value of our portfolio when they occur, we are not going to become too elated about an early takeover success are we?
Fundsmith 团队接下来会继续寻找下一家能以合理价格买入的伟大企业。现在,谁能说出比德尔蒙更大的四家宠物食品公司是哪几家?(提示:最大那家我们投不了,虽然我们希望投——它旗下还有几个很棒的糖果品牌。)
The Fundsmith team will now be in search of the next great business that we can buy at a favourable price. Now who can name the four pet food companies which are larger than Del Monte? (Clue: we can't invest in the largest one although we wish we could as it also has some great confectionery brands.)