《每日电讯报》投资者能从亚历克斯·弗格森爵士的成功中学到什么

2015 · 文章 · 原文约 760 词

译文与英文原文逐段对齐可在本页展开英文，也可打开发布者原址核对上下文。

投资者可以从体育世界中学到很多东西。上周我探讨了职业赌徒亚历克斯·伯德如何在赛马结束后下注，从而大发其财的故事。

Investors can learn a lot from the world of sport. Last week I looked at how the professional punter Alex Bird made a fortune betting on horse races after the race was over.

他故事的道理在于：不要试图预测哪匹马会赢，而是找到一种方法，押注于已经获胜的马。在体育和投资中，成功的一个重要因素是缩小成功的机会。

The moral of his story: don’t try to predict which horse will win, but find a way to bet on the horse that has already won. An important element of success in sports, and in investment, is narrowing the chance of success.

另一个好例子来自足球。美国体育学院的研究发现，在研究涉及的比赛中，90% 以上的进球是在禁区内打进的。面对这些统计数据，任何明智的球员都不会在禁区外射门。

Another good example comes from football. Research by the United States Sports Academy found that more than 90pc of goals in the matches studied were scored from inside the penalty area. Faced with these statistics, any sensible player would stop shooting from outside the area.

这如何应用于投资领域？许多投资者花时间试图预测某个行业的下一只大牛股，尤其是在科技行业，尽管预测这一领域的发展非常困难。

How does this apply to the world of investment? Many investors spend their time trying to predict the next big winner in a sector, particularly in technology, despite the difficulty of forecasting developments in this area.

下表显示了 30 多年前排名前 10 的软件公司。除一家外，其他公司基本上都已不复存在。显然，试图预测软件行业的长期赢家极其困难，即使你从那些已经领先的公司开始。如果你押注于初创企业和早期阶段的投资，胜算会有多大？

The table shows the top 10 software companies from just over 30 years ago. All bar one have more or less ceased to exist. Clearly trying to predict a long-term winner in the software sector is extremely difficult, even if you start with those that are already leading. What must the odds be like if you are backing start-ups and early stage investments?

1984 年排名前 10 的软件公司

Top 10 software companies in 1984

1 Microsoft

2 Visicorp

3 DRI

4 Micropro

5 Lotus

6 Ashton Tate

7 Peachtree

8 SPC

9 CAR/Sorcim

10 Perfect

如果你看一下生物技术和制药行业的临床试验结果，就能部分回答这个问题。

This question is answered in part if you look at the results of clinical trials in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical sector.

涉及新药的临床试验通常分为四个阶段：零期、一期、二期和三期。只有一种药物通过所有四个阶段，通常才会获得国家监管机构的批准，用于普通人群。

Clinical trials involving new drugs are commonly classified into four phases: zero, one, two and three. Only if a drug passes all four phases will it usually be approved by the national regulatory authority for use in the general population.

KMR 集团 2012 年发表的一项研究使用了 2007 年至 2011 年间药物成功和失败的数据，这些数据由全球最大的 13 家制药公司提交。研究发现，97% 的临床前试验药物从未成功过，一期临床试验中 95% 的分子和二期临床试验中 88% 的分子同样未能幸免。直到三期临床试验，前景才大为改观——进入该阶段的药物中有 54% 获得批准。

A study by KMR Group published in 2012 used data on drug successes and failures between 2007 and 2011 submitted by 13 of the world’s largest pharmaceutical firms. It found that 97pc of drugs in preclinical tests never made it, and neither did 95pc of the molecules in phase one clinical trials or 88pc of molecules in phase two. Not until phase three did prospects get much better – of the ones that made it that far, 54pc were approved.

一种药物从临床前阶段一路过关斩将的几率是万分之一（如果你对数学感兴趣，计算方法为 [1–0.97] x [1–0.95] x [1–0.88] x [1–0.46] = 0.0001）。通过投资生物技术公司来挑选早期药物试验的赢家，显然是一项全接触运动。

The odds of a drug at the preclinical stage making it all the way are one in 10,000 (if you are interested in the maths, the calculation is (1–0.97) x (1–0.95) x (1–0.88) x (1–0.46) = 0.0001). Trying to pick winners in the early stages of drug trials by investing in biotech companies is clearly a full-contact sport.

你还可以从经理人的变动中了解公司的前景，就像观察运动队一样。

You can also learn something about companies’ prospects from changes of manager, just as you can with sports teams.

当亚历克斯·弗格森爵士在执教曼联 27 年后退休时，你预料到结果会是什么？在那 27 年里，曼联赢得了 13 次英超联赛冠军、5 次足总杯冠军、4 次联赛杯冠军、10 次社区盾杯冠军、2 次欧洲冠军联赛冠军、欧洲超级杯冠军、洲际杯冠军以及国际足联俱乐部世界杯冠军。

What did you expect the outcome to be when Sir Alex Ferguson retired as manager of Manchester United after 27 years, a time in which the club won 13 Premier League titles, five FA Cups, four League Cups, 10 Community Shields, two Uefa Champions Leagues, the Uefa Super Cup, the Intercontinental Cup, and the Fifa Club World Cup?

很难不把他短命的继任者戴维·莫耶斯视为所谓的“医院传球”的接球手。在他不到一年的短暂任期内，曼联只赢得了社区盾杯。

It is hard not to see his short-lived successor, David Moyes, as the recipient of a so-called “hospital pass”. In his brief reign of less than a year, Manchester United won only the Community Shield.

特里·莱希爵士从特易购首席执行官职位上退休的情况也有相似之处。当特里爵士在任职 14 年后满载赞誉卸任时，接替他的是菲利普·克拉克，而克拉克只坚持了三年——期间充斥着利润预警、食品污染恐慌和会计丑闻。

There are parallels in the retirement of Sir Terry Leahy as chief executive of Tesco. When Sir Terry stepped down, laden with accolades, after 14 years, he was replaced by Philip Clarke, who lasted just three years – a period strewn with profit warnings, food contamination scares and an accounting scandal.

我并不是说这些都是克拉克先生的错。在我看来，问题的根源在于莱希时代，但只是在这位魅力型领袖离开后才浮出水面。

I am not suggesting that any of this was Mr Clarke’s fault. In my view, the root of the problem lay in the Leahy years, but came to light only after the charismatic leader had left.

同样，当吉姆·斯金纳——那位因扭转麦当劳命运而备受赞誉的首席执行官——在执掌公司 8 年后于 2012 年离职时，预测结果并不难。在他执掌期间，他曾被评为“年度首席执行官”。他的继任者唐·汤普森坚持了规定性的三年，然后承认失败。

Similarly, it wasn’t all that hard to predict the outcome when Jim Skinner, the chief executive who was credited with turning McDonald’s fortunes around, left in 2012 after eight years at the helm during which he was named as “chief executive of the year”. His successor, Don Thompson, lasted the obligatory three years before admitting defeat.

这里的重点不是谁该为麦当劳、曼联或特易购的业绩下滑负责，而是投资者应该警惕，当一位长期任职且极为成功的首席执行官离开企业时，就像足球迷所警惕的那样。

The point of this is not who is to blame for the slide in the fortunes of McDonald’s, Manchester United or Tesco, but that investors should be wary when a long-standing and highly successful chief executive leaves a business, just as football fans are.

正如一句老话所说：大树之下，难有栋梁之材。

As an old saying goes: acorns do not flourish under mighty oaks.

Terry Smith

The Telegraph