《每日电讯报》投资者能从亚历克斯·伯德赛马500连胜中学到什么
“他们以为比赛已经结束了。”解说员肯尼斯·沃尔斯滕霍姆在 1966 年世界杯决赛尾声的这句解说，已经进入大众文化，成为一句广为流传的口头禅。但我感到惊讶的是，投资者从体育世界里汲取的教训少得可怜，而体育本可以教给我们很多东西。
"They think it’s all over.” Commentator Kenneth Wolstenholme’s remark at the end of the 1966 World Cup Final has passed into popular culture as a widely used expression. But I am amazed how little investors learn from the world of sport, which has a lot to teach us.
在管理 Fundsmith 股票基金时，我们力求投资于在少数几个行业（如必需消费品、医疗设备和特许经营）拥有长期成功记录的公司。
In managing the Fundsmith Equity fund we seek to invest in companies that have a long history of success in a few sectors such as consumer staples, medical equipment and franchising.
人们常对我们说：“哦，你们是想挑出赢家。”实际上，我们并不寻求预测谁会赢，而是押注于已经赢了的公司。
People often say to us: “Oh, you try to pick winners.” The reality is that we don’t seek to predict who will win, but rather to bet on a company that has already won.
要解释我们的做法，我想借用赛马界的例子。作为职业赌徒，亚历克斯·伯德靠押注终点照片判定胜负发了财。你可以在他的自传《亚历克斯·伯德：一位职业赌徒的生活与秘密》中读到这段经历。
To explain what we seek to do I would turn to the world of horse racing. As a professional gambler, Alex Bird made a fortune betting on photo finishes. You can read about it in his autobiography, Alex Bird: the Life and Secrets of a Professional Punter.
在伯德的时代，终点照片不是数字化的，冲洗胶片并查看结果需要几分钟时间，在此期间，博彩公司仍在对比赛结果开出赔率。
In Bird’s day, photo finishes were not digital and it took several minutes to develop the film and view the outcome, during which time bookmakers continued laying odds on the outcome.
伯德意识到，他们违背了博彩业的一条根本规则——绝不对已经发生的事件开出赔率，因为知道结果的人能把你赢个精光。
Bird realised that they were breaking one of the fundamental rules of bookmaking – never make odds on an event that has already occurred, as someone who knows the outcome can take you to the cleaners.
据说，圣詹姆斯宫附近的博彩公司就吃过这个亏：他们在女王母亲（她喜欢下注）还在世时，就对王室宝宝的名字开出赔率。
Allegedly, bookmakers in the vicinity of St James’s Palace learnt this the hard way when they laid odds on the name of royal babies while the Queen Mother, who liked a bet, was still alive.
伯德注意到，当马匹齐头并进冲过终点线时，靠外侧的那匹马往往看起来像是赢了。他搞明白的是“视差”：从两条不同视线观察同一物体时，其表观位置产生的差异。
Bird noticed that when horses crossed the line together, the horse on the far side often appeared to have won. What he had figured out was “parallax”: the difference in the apparent position of an object viewed along two different lines of sight.
他找到了一种简单的利用方法。尽可能站在离终点柱最近的地方，闭上一只眼，在跑道终点线处虚拟出一条横线，他就能判断出哪匹马真正赢了。此后 20 年，他用这套简单的方法为自己赚了一大笔钱，据称连续 500 次下注成功。
He discovered a simple technique to exploit this. By standing as near to the winning post as possible, closing one eye and creating an imaginary line across the track at the finishing line, he could tell which horse had actually won. Using this simple system for the next 20 years he made himself a fortune, with a reported 500 consecutive successful bets.
这种事在金融界也可能发生。沃伦·巴菲特宣布职业生涯中只投资美国、首次买入一只英国股票时，博彩公司对是哪只股票开出了赔率。考虑到不少中间人（比如伯克希尔·哈撒韦的经纪商）已经知情，这么做相当危险。
This can happen in the financial world. When Warren Buffett announced that after a career investing only in the US he had bought a British share for the first time, the bookmakers made odds on which share it was. This was dangerous given that a number of intermediaries, such as Berkshire Hathaway’s brokers, already knew.
这一切与投资有什么关系？在 Fundsmith，我们并不像大多数赌徒那样试图挑出赢家——也就是研究赛绩、到马圈里看马、然后下注。
What has all this got to do with investment? At Fundsmith we do not seek to pick winners in the sense that most punters do, which is studying form, viewing the horses in the ring and then betting.
我们力求效仿亚历克斯·伯德——我们等到知道谁赢了，再等博彩公司开出不利于他们的赔率。在我们这里，没有赛马场意义上的博彩公司，我们说的是市场对股票的错误定价。
We seek to emulate Alex Bird – we wait until we know who has won and then wait for the bookmakers to offer us odds against them winning. In our case there are not bookmakers in the sense of a racecourse, we are talking about the market mispricing shares.
有些公司，我们无需猜测它们是否算赢了——即在某些产品类别中取得成功并占据主导地位。雀巢是全球最大的食品饮料公司，经营了 148 年，只有一次亏损。
There are some companies where we do not need to speculate on whether they have won in the sense of being successful and dominating certain product categories. Nestlé is the world’s largest food and beverage company and has been in business for 148 years with only one loss.
高露洁-棕榄占有全球牙膏市场 45% 的份额、牙刷市场 35% 的份额，同时在液体肥皂领域领先，在宠物食品领域位列第三。我们只需要等市场错误定价这些股票，就能获得押注确定赢家的机会。
Colgate Palmolive has 45pc of the world market for toothpaste and 35pc for toothbrushes. It is also the leader in liquid soap and third in pet food. We simply need to wait until the market misprices these shares in order to get our chance to bet on a certain winner.
这种情况可能由多种原因引发，例如 2008 年至 2009 年整个市场经历的那种恐慌。也可能是因为投资者感觉到复苏在即，抛售公认的赢家，转而买入在这种环境下涨幅最大的股票，比如周期股、金融股、复苏股和高负债公司。
This can happen for many reasons, for example when a panic occurs such as the whole market experienced in 2008 2009. Or it can come about because investors sensing recovery dump known winners and turn to the shares that rise most in such circumstances, such as cyclicals, financials, recovery stocks and highly indebted companies.
也可能是对特定产品的担忧，比如可乐饮料、牙膏中的微珠，或者奶粉安全恐慌。再或者汇率变动，比如近期瑞士法郎升值，导致雀巢股价下跌超过 10%，尽管其 98% 的业务都在瑞士以外。
It may entail particular concerns about the product, such as cola drinks or micro beads in toothpaste, or a milk powder safety scare. Or currency moves such as the recent rise in the Swiss franc, which sent Nestlé’s shares down by more than 10pc even though 98pc of its business is outside Switzerland.
这类情况都能提供押注确定赢家的投资机会，前提是它们把估值压到无法反映这些公司可持续回报的水平。
Situations such as these can all provide chances to invest by betting on a certain winner if they drive the valuation to a level which does not reflect these companies’ sustainable returns.
Terry Smith
Terry Smith
The Telegraph
The Telegraph