Money Observer：Fundsmith的特里·史密斯——预测者就像迈克尔·费什
动荡、喧嚣与骚乱，不过是评论员们用来形容十月股市表现的几个以字母 T 开头的词。我认为，审视我们被要求接受的这些词汇的定义总是好的。例如：骚乱，名词：一种极度动荡、混乱或不确定的状态。同义词：混乱、剧变、动荡、喧嚣、失序。
Tumult, turbulence and turmoil are just the words beginning with the letter T used by commentators to describe the behaviour of stock markets in October. I think it’s always good to look at the definition of the words we are being asked to accept. For example: turmoil, noun: a state of great disturbance, confusion, or uncertainty . synonyms: confusion, upheaval(s), turbulence, tumult, disorder.
这听起来非常戏剧化，那么实际发生了什么？十月，MSCI 世界指数（英镑净收益）下跌 5.3%，使其 2018 年截至十月底的回报率降至 +3.4%。在我看来，这远称不上骚乱。
That all sounds very dramatic, so what actually happened? In October the MSCI World Index (£net) fell by 5.3%, bringing its return for 2018 to the end of October to +3.4%. In my opinion that falls well short of turmoil.
一个或许更合理地被描述为市场骚乱的例子是 1987 年 10 月 19 日的所谓黑色星期一，当天道琼斯指数单日下跌 22.6%。那确实令人震惊。我应该知道，因为那天我正好在投资银行 BZW 的交易大厅上班，回家后接到一位美国大客户打来的电话，收到一大批卖出指令。我不得不小心翼翼地记下来，因为只能借着烛光——上周五飓风袭击后电力尚未恢复——这更增添了戏剧性。
An example of what might more reasonably be described as market turmoil was so-called Black Monday on 19 October 1987, when the Dow Jones index fell 22.6% in a single day. That felt dramatic. I should know, as I was in work that day on the trading floor of the investment bank BZW and when I went home I received a slew of sell orders from a large US client who rang me. I had to be careful writing them down, as I only had candlelight, because the power still had not been restored from the hurricane which had struck on the previous Friday – adding to the dramatic effect.
黑色星期一或许充满了动荡、喧嚣或骚乱，但它真的要紧吗？看看下面的道琼斯指数图表，试试能否找到黑色星期一。你需要很好的眼力才能做到。从长期来看，它并不重要。
Full of tumult, turmoil or turbulence Black Monday may have been, but did it really matter? Look at the chart of the Dow Jones index below and see if you can spot Black Monday. You will need good eyesight to do so. In the long term, it was not significant.
然而，这并不能阻止评论员们预测崩盘和熊市，并建议投资者采取预防措施，从减少股票持仓或买入评级较低所谓的“价值”股，到清仓所有持股并持有现金以保障资产价值。
However, this does not stop commentators predicting crashes and bear markets and suggesting investors take preventative action, which ranges from reducing their equity holdings or buying lowly rated so-called ‘value’ stocks, through to selling everything and holding cash to safeguard the value of their assets.
我的指导原则如下：
My guiding principles are as follows:
1）没有人能以任何有用的可靠程度预测市场下跌。对市场可能发生之事的预测，其可靠程度堪比迈克尔·菲什在 1987 年 10 月 15 日 BBC 天气预报中臭名昭著的否认——他坚称不会有飓风袭击英国。
1) No one can predict market downturns with any useful level of reliability. Forecasts of what may happen in the market are about as reliable as Michael Fish’s infamous denial, in the BBC weather forecast on 15 October 1987, that a hurricane was due to hit the UK.
2）然而，当反复出现的警告之一被证明准确时，预测者会忽略一个事实：如果听从了他们的建议，你在等待期间就会错失收益，因为没有人能准确预测熊市的时机。这些错失的收益可能远超随后的损失。
2) However, when one of the repeated warnings proves to be accurate, the forecasters will ignore the fact that if you had followed their advice you would have foregone gains while you waited, given that no one can predict the timing of a bear market accurately. These could have far outweighed subsequent losses.
3）牛市不会因年迈而消亡，所以忽略那些以“这轮牛市已经持续很久了”开头的警告。它们通常死于某个事件，通常是但不总是利率上升。
3) Bull markets do not die of old age, so ignore warnings that begin: “This bull market has gone on for a long time.” They usually die from an event, often but not always rising interest rates.
4）牛市攀爬忧虑之墙。你轻易就能看到正在展开的令人烦恼的事件，很少成为熊市的起因。例如，艾伦·格林斯潘早在 1996 年就将市场描述为非理性繁荣，1997 年的亚洲危机和 1998 年的俄罗斯违约与长期资本管理公司崩溃看起来吓人——但它们让美联储犹豫不决而不敢加息，这反过来又为牛市注入了新的动力，一直持续到 2000 年。也许与中国的潜在贸易战可能产生类似效果。
4) Bull markets climb a wall of worry. The troubling events you can readily see unfolding are rarely the cause of a bear market. For example, Alan Greenspan had already described the market as irrationally exuberant in 1996, and the Asian crisis of 1997 and Russian default and LTCM collapse in 1998 looked scary – but they made the Fed hesitate to raise rates, and that in turn gave the bull market a new leg, which lasted until 2000. Maybe the possible trade war with China could have a similar effect.
5）牛市不会随年龄增长而拓宽：它们会收窄。当前牛市始于 2009 年，当时股票无差别上涨。2014 年后新兴市场停止上涨。然后美国领涨。然后是美国的科技板块。然后只剩下重磅的 FAANG 股。那种认为在牛市后期投资者可以通过转向表现滞后的股票来获利或保护自己的想法，与历史背道而驰。
5) Bull markets do not broaden with age: they narrow. The current bull market began in 2009, when shares rose indiscriminately. After 2014 emerging markets stopped rising. Then the US took the lead. Then the technology sector in the US. Then just the big-hitting FAANGs. The idea that in the late stages of a bull market investors can make gains or protect themselves by switching into the stocks that have lagged flies in the face of history.
6）至于买入所谓的价值股，最好是在熊市来袭之后——而不是之前——进行。如果你找任何一位知名价值投资者，建议他们买入富时 100 指数中一些五花八门的股票，市盈率 15 倍，当作价值投资，他们会笑你。真正的价值投资机会在熊市出现时，涉及买入收益率几乎与市盈率一样高的股票。例如，2000 年底，帝国烟草的市盈率为 8.1 倍，收益率为 6.25%。
6) As for buying so-called value stocks, this is best done after the bear market has struck, not before. If you approached any of the famous value investors and suggested they buy some of the assorted stocks in the FTSE 100 index on a p/e of 15 times as a value play, they would laugh at you. Real value plays, when they emerge in a bear market, involve buying stocks with a yield almost as high as the PE. For example, at the end of 2000 Imperial Tobacco was on a p/e ratio of 8.1 times and had a yield of 6.25%.
7）熊市迟早会发生，但最好的姿态是忽略它，因为你无法预测它，也无法通过调整仓位来避免它。
7) A bear market will occur at some point, but the best stance is to ignore it, since you can’t predict it or position yourself to avoid it.