《金融时报》：投资者只有两种类型
择时交易：风险远大于收益
There is a lot to lose and little to gain from market timing
我上一次在本报撰文讨论所谓的择时交易问题是在 2013 年（《择时交易：请勿在家尝试》）。
I last wrote about the problems of so-called market timing in these pages in 2013 (Market timing: don't try this at home).
随着新冠疫情占据新闻头条，加上近期全球股市波动，你可能又听到了很多关于择时交易的说法。
With the Covid-19 pandemic dominating the news and recent volatility on world stock markets, you may have heard a lot about market timing again.
理财顾问和金融评论员很可能不会用这个术语。他们会谈的是，考虑到新冠病毒对经济的影响以及随之而来的市场反应，你是否应该卖出部分或全部股票投资。
Advisers and financial commentators will probably not use that actual term. What they will talk about is whether you should sell some or all of your equity investments because of the economic effects of the coronavirus and the subsequent effect on the markets.
这些在投资行业的行话里都叫“择时交易”——在你预期市场将下跌时，暂停投资，或者将部分或全部资金撤出市场。
All of this is what is termed “market timing” in the jargon of the investment trade — holding back investment or taking some or all of your money out of the market when you anticipate a fall.
“预期”这个词就揭示了这个方法的第一重问题。我接触到的大多数人都是在下跌过程中或下跌之后才撤资——就像今年 3 月那样。他们这么做，相当于看着后视镜（或者至多看着车侧窗）开车。要想最大程度安全驾驶，你得看着挡风玻璃外面。但在股市上这么做的麻烦在于，能见度常常极差，感觉像在雾天开车。
The word “anticipate” indicates the first problem with this approach. Most people whom I encounter take their money out during or after a fall — as they did in March. They are doing the equivalent of driving whilst looking in the rear view mirror (or at best, out of the side window of the car). You need to look out of the windscreen in order to have the best chance of driving safely. The trouble with doing that in terms of the stock market is that the visibility is often so poor, it feels like driving in fog.
这类投资方法几乎全是白费力气。市场是二阶系统。这意味着，要成功实施这样的择时策略，你不仅得能预测事件——利率上调、战争、油价冲击、新冠病毒的影响、选举和公投的结果——你还需要知道市场原本的预期是什么、它会作何反应，而且你的时机还得拿捏得准。难度不小。
Such approaches to investment are almost all futile. Markets are second order systems. What this means is that in order to successfully implement such market timing strategies you not only have to be able to predict events — interest rate rises, wars, oil price shocks, the impact of the coronavirus, the outcome of elections and referendums — you also need to know what the market was expecting and how it will react, and get your timing right. Tricky.
不过，市场上确实存在相当长的下跌期，需要很长时间才能收复之前的高点。那我们该怎么判断，要不要试着利用这一点呢？
However, there are quite long periods when the market falls and takes a long time to regain previous highs. How shall we judge whether you should try to take advantage of this?
以 1970 年到 2020 年的市场为例（这里用道琼斯工业平均指数——道指，我选用它，是因为 YCharts 提供了这个策略的相关数据）。这 50 年跨越了通胀周期和通缩周期，其间经历了多次危机和崩盘，也有牛市。这看起来是一个漫长而有代表性的样本期。
Take the market (in this case the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index — the Dow — which I will use because there is data on this strategy courtesy of YCharts) from 1970-2020. This is a period of 50 years which spans inflationary and deflationary cycles and which has seen several crises and crashes as well as bull markets. It seems like a long and fair sample period.
假设在这 50 年里，有两种相互竞争的投資策略。第一种是，在整个期间内，无论市场行情如何，每个交易日投入相同的金额——即所谓的定额（或定投）成本平均法，很多投资者其实都在用这个方法，定期向养老金、个人储蓄账户（Isa）或定期储蓄计划缴款。
Imagine that over this 50 year period there were two competing investment strategies. One is to invest an equal amount every trading day throughout the period irrespective of market conditions — so-called pound (or dollar) cost averaging which many investors actually apply by making regular contributions into a pension, Isa or regular savings plan.
另一种策略要求投资者有足够的远见，同样每天投入相同金额，但在市场转跌时停止投入、把现金存起来。这笔钱只有在道指创出新低、在任一下跌周期中触底时才投进去（因此这叫“绝对底部买入策略”）。
The other strategy requires enough foresight for the investor to invest the same amount daily, but to stop investing when the market turns down and save the cash. This money is only invested when the Dow makes a new bottom, hitting its low point in any period of decline (hence why it’s known as an ‘absolute bottom buying strategy’).
在我看来，相较于测算“如果你对未来有那么笃定，以至于能在市场转跌之前卖掉一切、然后在底部买回来”会怎样，这个例子更贴合实际，展示了如何运用远见。
In my view, this is a somewhat more realistic example of how you might apply foresight rather than measuring what would happen if you had such certainty about the future you were able to sell everything just before the market turned down and then buy it back at the bottom.
在这 50 年期间，第二种策略的回报会比第一种高 22%。听起来很厉害——但换算成年化超越收益 0.4%，这个数字就没那么亮眼了。可你想过没有，为了把时机把握得刚刚好，你得花多少时间和精力去盯盘？
Over the 50 year period, the second strategy would have produced returns 22 per cent higher than the first. It sounds impressive — perhaps a little less so when you break it down to an 0.4 per cent outperformance per year. But think of the time and effort you would have to spend monitoring markets to get those calls just right.
把这个和自 2013 年 3 月我上次写这个话题以来市场的涨幅做个对比。道指累计上涨略超 150%，年均涨幅 13.3%。想象一下，如果当初你因为市场恐慌而撤出股票，或者在这一波上涨之前就停止投入，会怎样。为了每年最多 0.4% 的上行收益，你甘愿放弃其中相当一部分涨幅吗？
Compare and contrast this with the rise in the market since I last wrote about this subject in March 2013. The Dow is up just over 150 per cent in total, averaging 13.3 per cent per annum. Imagine if you had acted on market fears and taken your money out of equities or stopped investing ahead of that performance. Should you risk foregoing any significant portion of that gain for a maximum upside of 0.4 per cent per year?
现实中，尝试实施第二种策略几乎必然会给你的净资产带来损害，因为没有人有完美的预见力。在你想要择时的冲动之下，当预期市场会下跌时，你会停止投入，甚至更糟，卖出撤资——结果市场反而涨了。
In reality, attempts to implement the second strategy will almost certainly cause harm to your net worth as nobody has perfect foresight. In your desire to time the markets, you will stop investing, or worse, sell and take money out when you expect the market to go down, and instead it goes up.
回想一下英国脱欧和特朗普当选的时候。大多数评论员都告诉我们，这些事不会发生，就算发生了，市场也会崩盘。结果，他们对事件本身的判断是错的，对市场反应的理解也是错的。市场大涨。
Think back to Brexit and Trump's election. We were told by most commentators that they would not happen, but if they did, the markets would plunge. Not only were they wrong about the events but they were also wrong about the market’s reaction to events. The markets soared.
说到所谓的择时交易，只有两种人：做不来的人，以及知道自己做不来的人。待在后者那一队里，更安全，也更能赚钱。
When it comes to so-called market timing there are only two sorts of people: those who can’t do it, and those who know they can’t do it. It’s safer and more profitable to be in the latter camp.
特里·史密斯是 Fundsmith LLP 的首席执行官；本文观点为个人观点。
Terry Smith is the chief executive of Fundsmith LLP; the views expressed are personal.