Fundsmith股票基金——致股东年度信2019
January 2020
January 2020
亲爱的投资者:
Dear Fellow Investor,
这是致 Fundsmith 股票基金(“基金”)持有人的第十封年度信函。
This is the tenth annual letter to owners of the Fundsmith Equity Fund (‘Fund’).
下表列出了最近一个日历年的业绩数据,以及自 2010 年 11 月 1 日成立以来的累计和年化业绩,并附上了各项比较基准。
The table below shows performance figures for the last calendar year and the cumulative and annualised performance since inception on 1st November 2010 and various comparators. % Total Return 1st Jan to Inception to 31st Dec 2019 Sharpe Sortino 31st Dec 2019 Cumulative Annualised ratio5 ratio5
% 总回报 2019 年 1 月 1 日 成立至 2019 年 12 月 31 日 夏普比率 5 索提诺比率 5
至 12 月 31 日 累计 年化
Fundsmith 股票基金 1 +25.6 +364.4 +18.2 1.22 1.22
股票 2 +22.7 +180.3 +11.9 0.63 0.59
英国债券 3 +3.8 +40.9 +3.8 n/a n/a
现金 4 +0.8 +6.0 +0.6 n/a n/a
1
T 类累计份额,扣除费用,按英国时间中午定价,数据来源:Fundsmith LLP
2
MSCI 世界指数,英镑计价,净收益,按美股收盘价定价,数据来源:彭博
3
彭博/巴克莱债券指数英国政府债 5–10 年期,数据来源:彭博
4
3 个月英镑伦敦银行同业拆借利率,数据来源:彭博
5
夏普与索提诺比率自 2011 年 1 月 1 日成立至 2019 年 12 月 31 日,数据来源:Financial Express Analytics
Fundsmith Equity Fund1 +25.6 +364.4 +18.2 1.22 1.22 Equities2 +22.7 +180.3 +11.9 0.63 0.59 UK Bonds3 +3.8 +40.9 +3.8 n/a n/a Cash4 +0.8 +6.0 +0.6 n/a n/a 1 T Class Acc shares, net of fees, priced at noon UK time, source: Fundsmith LLP 2 MSCI World Index, £ net, priced at US market close, source: Bloomberg 3 Bloomberg/Barclays Bond Indices UK Gov. 5–10 yr., source: Bloomberg 4 3 Month £ LIBOR Interest Rate, source: Bloomberg 5 Sharpe & Sortino ratios are since inception on 1.11.10 to 31.12.19, source: Financial Express Analytics
表中显示的是 T 类累计份额的表现,这是持有最广泛的份额类别,也是我本人投资的类别。该份额在 2019 年上涨 25.6%,相比之下 MSCI 世界指数(英镑计价,股息再投资)上涨 22.7%。因此,本基金在 2019 年跑赢了这一比较基准,而且自成立以来,本基金在英国投资协会全球板块中一直保持业绩第一,累计领先该板块平均水平 233 个百分点,同期该板块平均回报为 131.8%。
The table shows the performance of the T Class Accumulation shares, the most commonly held Class and one in which I am invested, which rose by +25.6% in 2019 and compares with a rise of +22.7% for the MSCI World Index in sterling with dividends reinvested. The Fund therefore beat this comparator in 2019, and our Fund remains the No.1 performer since its inception in the Investment Association Global sector by a cumulative margin of 233 percentage points above the average for the sector which has delivered +131.8% over the same timeframe.
不过,我清楚我们的许多投资者、甚至大多数投资者并不把这些当作衡量投资的自然基准。身处英国的投资者可能会以富时 100 指数(“富时 100”)作为衡量投资的标尺,并持有追踪该指数、且往往紧贴该指数的基金。富时 100 在 2019 年的总回报为 17.3%,因此本基金跑赢该指数 8.3 个百分点。
However, I realise that many or indeed most of our investors do not use these as the natural comparator for their investments. Those of you who are based in the UK may look to the FTSE 100 Index (‘FTSE 100’) as the yardstick for measuring your investments and may hold funds which are benchmarked to this index and often hug it. The FTSE 100 delivered a total return of +17.3% in 2019 so our Fund outperformed this by a margin of 8.3 percentage points. 1 For the year the top five contributors to the Fund’s performance were: Microsoft +2.7% Estée Lauder +2.1% Facebook +2.0% PayPal +1.8% Philip Morris Intl. +1.4%
年内对基金业绩贡献最大的五只股票为:
微软 +2.7%
雅诗兰黛 +2.1%
Facebook +2.0%
PayPal +1.8%
菲利普·莫里斯国际 +1.4%
Microsoft makes its fifth appearance whilst PayPal is putting in an appearance for the third year running. Someone once said that no one ever got poor by taking profits. This may be true but I doubt they got very rich by this approach either. We are not the sort of people who ever declare victory — we invest with a strong sense of paranoia — but it is nonetheless pleasing to note the contribution of Facebook which was certainly our most controversial stock purchase and led to more questions (and demands for its sale) from some of our investors than any other company. We had similar views expressed to us when we purchased Microsoft.
微软是第五次上榜,而 PayPal 是连续第三年上榜。有人曾说过,靠止盈发不了财。这话或许不假,但我怀疑靠这种法子也发不了大财。我们不是那种动辄宣布胜利的人——我们投资时带有强烈的偏执感——但 Facebook 的贡献确实令人欣慰。它是我们最具争议的买入,引发的投资者质疑(以及要求卖出)超过任何其他公司。当年我们买入微软时,也收到过类似的意见。
The bottom five were: 3M -0.2% Colgate Palmolive 0.0% Clorox 0.0% Brown-Forman 0.0% Reckitt Benckiser +0.2%
表现最差的五只是:
3M -0.2%
高露洁棕榄 0.0%
高乐氏 0.0%
百富门 0.0%
利洁时 +0.2%
We sold our stakes in 3M and Colgate Palmolive during the year and began buying Brown-Forman, the distiller of Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey, and Clorox, the US household products and personal care products company. With 3M we were acting on growing doubts about the current management’s capital allocation decisions, and in the case of Colgate Palmolive we grew tired of waiting for an effective growth strategy to emerge. As is often the case, our buying of Brown-Forman has coincided with a period of share price weakness caused in this case mainly by the impact of EU tariffs on American spirits.
年内我们卖出了 3M 和高露洁棕榄的持仓,开始买入百富门(杰克·丹尼田纳西威士忌的酿酒商)和高乐氏(美国家居用品及个人护理产品公司)。卖出 3M 是因为我们越来越怀疑现任管理层的资本配置决策;至于高露洁棕榄,我们等不到有效的增长战略出台,已经失去耐心。和往常一样,我们买入百富门恰好赶上股价疲弱的时期,这次主要是欧盟对美国烈酒加征关税所致。
This year we have included the Sharpe and Sortino ratios for our Fund and the Index in the performance table on p.1. I realise that for those of you who are not investment professionals what I say next may well seem to be gobbledegook. However, whilst the returns which our Fund provides are very important so is the amount of risk assumed in producing those returns. These ratios attempt to measure that.
今年我们在第 1 页的业绩表中加入了本基金和指数的夏普比率与索提诺比率。我清楚,对于非投资专业人士来说,我接下来要说的可能像天书。但尽管基金提供的回报非常重要,产生这些回报所承担的风险同样重要。这两个比率就是用来衡量风险的。
The Sharpe ratio takes the return on the Fund, subtracts a so-called risk-free return (basically the return on government bonds) to get the excess return over the risk-free rate, and divides the resulting number by the variation in that excess return (measured by its standard deviation — I warned you it was gobbledegook). The result tells you
夏普比率用基金的回报减去所谓的无风险回报(基本上就是政府债券的回报),得出超过无风险利率的超额回报,再把这个数字除以超额回报的波动幅度(用标准差衡量——我早说过这是天书)。结果告诉你
2 what unit of return you get for a unit of risk and our Fund has a Sharpe ratio of 1.22 since inception against 0.63 for the MSCI World Index — it is producing about twice the amount of return that the Index produces for each unit of risk.
每承担一单位风险能获得多少单位回报。本基金自成立以来的夏普比率为 1.22,而 MSCI 世界指数为 0.63——也就是说,每承担一单位风险,本基金产生的回报约为指数的两倍。
The Sortino ratio is an adaption of the Sharpe ratio, and in my view an improvement. Whereas the Sharpe ratio estimates risk by the variability of returns, the Sortino ratio takes into account only downside variability as it is not clear why we should be concerned about upside volatility (i.e. when our Fund goes up a lot) which mostly seems to be a cause for celebration. The result for our Fund since inception is a Sortino ratio of 1.22 but the MSCI World Index Sortino ratio is lower than its Sharpe ratio at 0.59.
索提诺比率是夏普比率的改良版,在我看来也是一种改进。夏普比率用回报的波动性来衡量风险,而索提诺比率只考虑下行波动,因为上行波动(也就是基金大涨的时候)大多值得庆祝,没理由担心。本基金自成立以来的索提诺比率为 1.22,但 MSCI 世界指数的索提诺比率低于其夏普比率,为 0.59。
As you hopefully know by now, we have a simple three step investment strategy:
想必你现在已经知道,我们的投资策略只有简单的三步:
• Buy good companies • Don’t overpay • Do nothing
• 买入好公司
• 不要付过高价格
• 什么都不做
I will review how we are doing against each of those in turn.
下面我逐一检视这三步的落实情况。
As usual we seek to give some insight into the first of those — whether we own good companies — by giving you the following table which shows what Fundsmith would be like if instead of being a fund it was a company and accounted for the stakes which it owns in the portfolio on a ‘look through’ basis, and compares this with the market, in this case the FTSE 100 Index and the S&P 500 Index (‘S&P 500’). We not only show you how the portfolio compares with the major indices but also how it has evolved over time.
像往常一样,我们想让你对第一步——我们是否拥有好公司——有所了解,于是给出下表。这张表呈现的是:如果 Fundsmith 不是一只基金,而是一家公司,并按“透视”口径计入其投资组合中所持股份,这家假想公司会是什么样子;同时与市场(此处为富时 100 指数和标普 500 指数(“标普 500”))作比较。我们不仅展示投资组合与主要指数的对比,还展示其多年来的演变。
S&P FTSE Fundsmith Equity Fund Portfolio 500 100 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2019 2019 Year ended ROCE 29% 31% 29% 26% 27% 28% 29% 29% 17% 17% Gross margin 58% 63% 60% 61% 62% 63% 65% 66% 45% 39% Operating margin 23% 24% 25% 25% 26% 26% 28% 27% 15% 17% Cash conversion 101% 108% 102% 98% 99% 102% 95% 97% 84% 86% Leverage 44% 40% 28% 29% 38% 37% 47% 39% 53% 41% Interest cover 18x 16x 15x 16x 17x 17x 17x 16x 7x 10x Source: Fundsmith LLP/Bloomberg. ROCE, Gross Margin, Operating Profit Margin and Cash Conversion are the weighted mean of the underlying companies invested in by the Fundsmith Equity Fund and mean for the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 Indices. The FTSE 100 and S&P 500 numbers exclude financial stocks. The Leverage and Interest Cover numbers are both median. All ratios are based on last reported fiscal year accounts as at 31st December and as defined by Bloomberg. Cash Conversion compares Free Cash Flow per Share with Net Income per Share.
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
标普 500 富时 100
Fundsmith 股票基金投资组合
2019 年 2019 年
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
财年截止
ROCE 29% 31% 29% 26% 27% 28% 29% 29% 17% 17%
毛利率 58% 63% 60% 61% 62% 63% 65% 66% 45% 39%
营业利润率 23% 24% 25% 25% 26% 26% 28% 27% 15% 17%
现金转换率 101% 108% 102% 98% 99% 102% 95% 97% 84% 86%
杠杆率 44% 40% 28% 29% 38% 37% 47% 39% 53% 41%
利息保障倍数 18 倍 16 倍 15 倍 16 倍 17 倍 17 倍 17 倍 16 倍 7 倍 10 倍
数据来源:Fundsmith LLP/彭博。ROCE、毛利率、营业利润率、现金转换率为 Fundsmith 股票基金所投标的公司的加权平均值,富时 100 和标普 500 为平均值。富时 100 和标普 500 的数据剔除金融股。杠杆率和利息保障倍数均为中位数。所有比率基于截至 12 月 31 日的最新报告财年数据,定义依据彭博。现金转换率比较每股自由现金流与每股净收益。
As you can see, not much has changed, which is how we like it. Our portfolio companies remain superior to those in the main indices on
如你所见,变化不大,这正是我们喜欢的状态。我们的投资组合公司在回报、盈利能力、现金流或资产负债表实力等任何财务指标上,依然优于两大主要指数中的公司。
3 any of the financial measures of returns, profitability, cash flow, or balance sheet strength.
正如去年所说,我们打算今后从表中删除杠杆率这项,因为它可能近乎毫无意义。如你所见,我们并不是因为它看起来难看才打算删。恰恰相反,今年本基金投资组合的杠杆率为 39%,而标普 500 为 53%,富时 100 为 41%。但中位数所对应的公司杠杆率分别为 26% 和 53%,由此可见这个指标多么没意义。用平均值也好不到哪里去,因为投资组合里有 8 家公司的资产负债表上净现金为正。
As we indicated last year, we are going to remove the leverage calculation from the table in future as it can be close to meaningless. As you can see, we are not planning to remove it just because it looks bad. On the contrary, this year it is at 39% for our Fund’s portfolio versus 53% for the S&P 500 and 41% for the FTSE 100. But it gives a sense of how little meaning it has that the values for the companies that comprise the median number are 26% and 53%. Nor is a mean (average) number much better as eight stocks in the portfolio have net cash on their balance sheets.
截至年底,我们投资组合公司的平均成立年份为 1925 年。
The average year of foundation of our portfolio companies at the year end was 1925.
持续的高资本回报率是我们挑选投资标的时关注的一个信号。另一个信号是增长来源——如果一家企业无法增长、无法以这些高回报率配置更多资本,那么高回报也没多大用。那么 2019 年我们的公司在这些方面表现如何?加权平均自由现金流(即公司在支付除股息以外的一切费用后产生的现金,也是我们偏爱的衡量指标)在 2019 年增长了 9%。
Consistently high returns on capital are one sign we look for when seeking companies to invest in. Another is a source of growth — high returns are not much use if the business is not able to grow and deploy more capital at these high rates. So how did our companies fare in that respect in 2019? The weighted average free cash flow (the cash the companies generate after paying for everything except the dividend, and our preferred measure) grew by 9% in 2019.
这就引出了估值问题。年初投资组合的加权平均自由现金流(“FCF”)收益率(公司产生的自由现金流除以其市值)为 4.0%,年底为 3.4%,可见估值变高了。从股价和基金表现的角度看,这是好事,但也让我们感到不安,因为估值变化是有限且可逆的,尽管短期内很难看到这种逆转最可能来自哪里——利率上升。
This leads onto the question of valuation. The weighted average free cash flow (‘FCF’) yield (the free cash flow generated by the companies divided by their market value) of the portfolio at the outset of the year was 4.0% and ended it at 3.4%, so they became more highly rated. Whilst this is a good thing from the viewpoint of the performance of their shares and the Fund, it makes us nervous as changes in valuation are finite and reversible, although it is hard to see the most likely source of such a reversal — a rise in interest rates — in the near future.
标普 500 年底的 FCF 收益率中位数为 4.2%。富时 100 年底的 FCF 收益率中位数为 5.5%。我们的股票更多属于前一个指数,我不想重复 2017 年年报中关于为何认为富时 100 不适合作为投资者基准或投资替代的解释。我们的投资组合由基本面远优于两大指数平均水平的企业组成,估值高于富时 100 公司的平均水平,也略高于标普 500 公司的平均水平,但质量明显更高。需要谨记的是,尽管许多评论员用词马虎,但高评级不等于贵,正如低评级不等于便宜一样。
The year-end median FCF yield on the S&P 500 was 4.2%. The year- end median FCF yield on the FTSE 100 was 5.5%. More of our stocks are in the former index than the latter and I will not repeat the explanation which I gave in my 2017 annual letter on why I think the FTSE 100 is not an appropriate benchmark or investment proxy for our investors to use. Our portfolio consists of companies that are fundamentally a lot better than the average of those in either index and are valued more highly than the average FTSE 100 company and a bit higher than the average S&P 500 company but with significantly higher quality. It is wise to bear in mind that despite the rather sloppy shorthand used by many commentators, highly rated does not equate to expensive any more than lowly rated equates to cheap.
再来说我们策略的第三条腿,我们简洁地称之为“什么都不做”。将投资组合换手率降到最低仍是我们的目标之一,本期内再次实现,组合换手率为负。更直观的数据是,我们全年主动交易费用仅占基金平均规模的 0.005%(半个基点,即万分之一),这里面不包括与基金申购和赎回相关的交易费用,因为那些是被动产生的。自 2010 年成立以来,我们一直持有十家投资组合公司。
4 Turning to the third leg of our strategy, which we succinctly describe as ‘Do nothing’, minimising portfolio turnover remains one of our objectives and this was again achieved with a negative portfolio turnover during the period. It is perhaps more helpful to know that we spent a total of just 0.005% (half a basis point or one two hundredth of one percent) of the Fund’s average value over the year on voluntary dealing (which excludes dealing costs associated with fund subscriptions and redemptions as these are involuntary). We have held ten of our portfolio companies since inception in 2010.
这为什么重要?它有助于把成本降到最低,而降低投资成本是投资者取得满意结果的关键贡献。投资者、评论员和顾问们常常关注、有时甚至痴迷于年度管理费(“AMC”)或持续费率(“OCF”),后者在 AMC 之外还包含一些基金承担的费用。2019 年 T 类累计份额的 OCF 为 1.05%。问题在于,OCF 没有包含一项重要成本——交易成本。基金经理买卖股票时,基金通常要承担付给经纪商的佣金、交易股票的买卖价差,有时还有交易税(如英国的印花税)。这会显著增加基金的成本,但并未计入 OCF。
Why is this important? It helps to minimise costs and minimising the costs of investment is a vital contribution to achieving a satisfactory outcome as an investor. Too often investors, commentators and advisers focus on, or in some cases obsess about, the Annual Management Charge (‘AMC’) or the Ongoing Charges Figure (‘OCF’), which includes some costs over and above the AMC, which are charged to the Fund. The OCF for 2019 for the T Class Accumulation shares was 1.05%. The trouble is that the OCF does not include an important element of costs — the costs of dealing. When a fund manager deals by buying or selling, the fund typically incurs the cost of commission paid to a broker, the bid-offer spread on the stocks dealt in and, in some cases, transaction taxes such as stamp duty in the UK. This can add significantly to the costs of a fund, yet it is not included in the OCF.
我们提供了自己计算的总成本(含交易成本)的版本,称之为投资总成本(TCI)。2019 年,T 类累积份额的 TCI 为 1.06%,其中包括基金进出流量的全部交易成本,而不仅是我们自愿交易的部分。下表展示了英国 15 只最大的股票基金和总回报基金的 TCI,以及它们的 TCI 与 OCF 的差异:
| OCF(%) | 交易成本(%) | TCI(%) | 额外成本(%) |
|---|
We provide our own version of this total cost including dealing costs, which we have termed the Total Cost of Investment (‘TCI’). For the T Class Accumulation shares in 2019 this amounted to a TCI of 1.06%, including all costs of dealing for flows into and out of the Fund, not just our voluntary dealing. The table below shows the TCI of the 15 largest equity and total return funds in the UK and how their TCI differs from their OCF: OCF Transaction TCI % Additional % Costs % % Costs
Fundsmith 股票基金 1.05 0.01 1.06 1
景顺全球目标回报基金 0.87 0.43 1.30 49
Baillie Gifford 多元化增长基金 0.77 0.50 1.27 65
Lindsell Train 英国股票基金 0.65 0.09 0.74 14
Stewart Investors 亚太领袖基金 0.88 0.16 1.04 18
纽约梅隆实际回报基金 0.80 0.20 1.00 25
景顺高收益基金 0.92 0.15 1.07 16
纽约梅隆全球收益基金 0.80 0.07 0.87 9
Liontrust 特殊情境基金 0.89 0.18 1.07 20
Artemis 收益基金 0.80 0.12 0.92 15
ASI 全球绝对回报策略基金 0.90 0.15 1.05 17
Jupiter 欧洲基金 1.02 0.06 1.08 6
LF Ruffer 绝对回报基金 1.22 0.35 1.57 29
Baillie Gifford 管理基金 0.42 0.05 0.47 12
Threadneedle 英国股票收益基金 0.82 0.05 0.87 6
平均 0.85 0.17 1.03 20
资料来源:Financial Express Analytics/Fundsmith,截至 2020 年 1 月 6 日,基金按规模降序排列。
Fundsmith Equity Fund 1.05 0.01 1.06 1 Invesco Global Targeted Returns 0.87 0.43 1.30 49 Baillie Gifford Diversified Growth 0.77 0.50 1.27 65 Lindsell Train UK Equity 0.65 0.09 0.74 14 Stewart Investors Asia Pacific Leaders 0.88 0.16 1.04 18 BNY Mellon Real Return 0.80 0.20 1.00 25 Invesco High Income 0.92 0.15 1.07 16 BNY Mellon Global Income 0.80 0.07 0.87 9 Liontrust Special Situations 0.89 0.18 1.07 20 Artemis Income 0.80 0.12 0.92 15 ASI Global Absolute Return Strategies 0.90 0.15 1.05 17 Jupiter European 1.02 0.06 1.08 6 LF Ruffer Absolute Return 1.22 0.35 1.57 29 Baillie Gifford Managed 0.42 0.05 0.47 12 Threadneedle UK Equity Income 0.82 0.05 0.87 6 Average 0.85 0.17 1.03 20 Source: Financial Express Analytics/Fundsmith as at 6.1.20, funds in descending order of size.
5
我们感到欣慰的是,在计入交易成本后,我们的 TCI 总成本比率不仅只比 OCF 运营成本比率高出 1%,而且是同类基金中增幅最低的。然而,我们仍要提醒各位,不要过度执着于费用,以至于忽略了基金的业绩表现。值得指出的是,本函开头所列我们基金的业绩,是在扣除全部费用之后的净回报,这理应成为关注的核心。这一点在以下对比中体现得淋漓尽致:英国规模最大的 15 只主动型股票基金和总回报基金,按三年业绩排名(若按五年业绩排名,情况也基本不变)。
5 We are pleased that our TCI is not only just 1% above our OCF when transaction costs are taken into account, but that this is the lowest increase in the group. However, we would again caution against becoming obsessed with charges to such an extent that you lose focus on the performance of funds. It is worth pointing out that the performance of our Fund tabled at the beginning of this letter is after charging all fees which should surely be the main focus. This point is rammed home when the same 15 largest active equity and total return funds in the UK are ranked by their three year performance (the picture does not change much if we rank them on their five year performance).
3 年 5 年
累计业绩 累计业绩
截至上年末 截至上年末
3 year 5 year Cumulative Cumulative Performance Performance to Last Year End to Last Year End Overall % Overall %
Fundsmith 股票基金 56.6 132.2
Jupiter 欧洲基金 53.5 98.4
Lindsell Train 英国股票基金 46.6 81.9
Liontrust 特殊情境基金 39.0 83.3
Baillie Gifford 管理基金 35.8 70.3
BNY Mellon 全球收益基金 30.5 85.9
Artemis 收益基金 25.0 45.3
Stewart Investors 亚太领袖基金 24.1 51.3
Threadneedle 英国股票收益基金 21.0 43.8
BNY Mellon 实际回报基金 14.8 20.8
Baillie Gifford 多元化增长基金 13.9 23.4
ASI 全球绝对回报策略基金 2.8 2.9
LF Ruffer 绝对回报基金 2.5 16.0
Invesco 全球目标回报基金 0.6 5.7
Invesco 高收益基金 -0.5 13.7
资料来源:Financial Express Analytics/Fundsmith,截至 2020 年 1 月 6 日
Fundsmith Equity Fund 56.6 132.2 Jupiter European 53.5 98.4 Lindsell Train UK Equity 46.6 81.9 Liontrust Special Situations 39.0 83.3 Baillie Gifford Managed 35.8 70.3 BNY Mellon Global Income 30.5 85.9 Artemis Income 25.0 45.3 Stewart Investors Asia Pacific Leaders 24.1 51.3 Threadneedle UK Equity Income 21.0 43.8 BNY Mellon Real Return 14.8 20.8 Baillie Gifford Diversified Growth 13.9 23.4 ASI Global Absolute Return Strategies 2.8 2.9 LF Ruffer Absolute Return 2.5 16.0 Invesco Global Targeted Returns 0.6 5.7 Invesco High Income -0.5 13.7 Source: Financial Express Analytics/Fundsmith as at 6.1.20
我认为,上面这张表本身已足以说明我们基金的相对表现,你们不但能看到费用和成本,还能看到投入之后换来的回报——业绩。
I think the above table speaks for itself in terms of the relative performance of our Fund so that you can look not just at the fees and costs but what you get in return — performance.
该基金当年的业绩受到几个表现不佳月份的不利影响,特别是 9 月和 10 月,两个月合计拖累基金约 6%。原因有二:一是英镑汇率自 2016 年英国脱欧公投结果公布及随后硬脱欧担忧加剧后触及的低点出现反弹;二是市场出现“轮动”,资金从本基金所持有的高质量、评级相对较高的股票,转向质量较低、评级也更低的“价值型”股票。
The Fund’s performance for the year was adversely affected by a couple of poor months in September and October which cost the Fund about 6%. This was caused by two factors: 1) a rally in the sterling exchange rate from the recent lows which it had plumbed after the Brexit referendum result in 2016 and on subsequent hard Brexit fears; and 2) a ‘rotation’ from the high quality and relatively highly rated stocks of the sort which our Fund owns into lower quality and more lowly rated ‘value’ stocks.
如果你在没了解我们基金实际表现的情况下,读到媒体上对此铺天盖地的评论,你可能会惊讶地发现,尽管发生了这些事情,我们这一年结束时依然……
If you read the breathless commentary on this in much of the press without knowing the actual performance of our Fund you might be surprised to find that, notwithstanding these events, it ended the year
上涨 25.6%,创下我们自成立以来第二好的年度表现,并跑赢 MSCI 世界指数 2.9 个百分点。
6 up by 25.6% which was our second best year since inception and outperformed the MSCI World Index by 2.9%.
依次来看这些因素,汇率变动显然对我们的投资组合有一定影响。我们投资组合中超过 60% 投资于在美国上市的公司。实际对美元的敞口,以及由此对英镑兑美元汇率的影响,更应通过我们投资组合公司约 40% 的收入来自美国来评估。然而,我们不认为汇率变动是可以预测的——其可预测性似乎与玩蛇梯棋差不多——也不认为可以进行对冲。
Taking each of these factors in turn, currency movements clearly have some effect on our portfolio. Over 60% of our portfolio is invested in companies listed in the United States. The actual exposure to the US dollar and therefore the pound/dollar exchange rate is better gauged by the c.40% of our portfolio companies’ revenues which are in the USA. However, currency movements are not something we believe we can predict — they seem to have about the same predictability as a game of Snakes & Ladders — or hedge.
我建议这样看待这个问题:想象我们正与过去九年为我们带来丰厚回报、或者未来九年可能带来丰厚回报的几家公司对话,请它们说出自身成功的三大关键因素。你觉得它们有多大可能会提到“货币敞口和汇率”?我认为它们更可能说的是产品创新与研发、强势品牌、渠道掌控、市场份额、客户关系、设备或软件的存量装机、管理、成功的资本开支与并购——这些远比汇率重要得多。所以,我们认为最好忽略汇率波动的“升与降”游戏。
I would suggest looking at the matter this way: imagine we were in a discussion with some of the companies which have produced great returns for us over the last nine years, or which might do so over the next nine, and we asked them to name the top three factors in their success. What do you think the chances are that they would say ‘currency exposure and exchange rates’? I would suggest they might name product innovation and R&D, strong brands, control of distribution, market share, customer relationships, installed bases of equipment or software, management, successful capital expenditure and acquisitions as far more important. So, we think it’s best to ignore the Snakes & Ladders of currency movements.
再说第二点——所谓向价值股的轮动。我算不上什么园艺高手,但我觉得这正变成园丁们所说的“生命力顽强的多年生植物”,年年都冒出来。引用《投资顾问》杂志的话:“从市盈率看,有大量证据表明,相对而言,优质股票如今可能算得上昂贵。”这个论断有意思的地方在于,它发表于 2012 年 8 月 13 日。此后七年,那些所谓昂贵的股票带来了大量超额回报。
Turning to the second point — the so-called rotation into value stocks, I am not much of a gardener but I believe this is becoming what gardeners term a hardy perennial as it crops up every year. To quote from Investment Adviser ‘Looking at PE ratios there is evidence in abundance that shows that from a relative perspective quality stocks may today be considered expensive.’ The interesting point about that assertion is that it was published on 13th August 2012. A lot of superior returns have been had from those allegedly expensive stocks in the subsequent seven years.
这个论点可以这样概括:我们基金所持有的这类股票,连同基金本身,已经走出了一段漂亮的表现,但这一切即将结束,甚至已经结束;所谓“价值投资”——主要依据市场对其低估的判断来买入股票——正在卷土重来,而采用那种策略的基金即将超越我们。
The argument might be encapsulated thus: stocks of the sort which our Fund owns have had a good run of outperformance as has the Fund but this is all about to end, or even has already ended, and so- called ‘value investing’ — buying stocks mainly based upon their supposed under valuation by the market — is making a comeback and funds which pursue that strategy are about to outperform us.
价值投资作为策略有其缺陷。市场并非完美,但也不是完全无效,大多数估值吸引价值投资者的股票之所以如此,是因为它们并非优质企业。这意味着,买入这些确实评级较低但很少或从未获得足够资本回报的公司的价值投资者,正面临逆风。公司的内在价值不会增长(除非
Value investing has its flaws as a strategy. Markets are not perfect but they are not totally inefficient either and most of the stocks which have valuations which attract value investors have them for good reason — they are not good businesses. This means that the value investor who buys one of these companies which are indeed lowly rated but which rarely or never make an adequate return on capital is facing a headwind. The intrinsic value of the company does not grow (except
对于该公司不幸的投资者以某种形式允许其留存或认购的任何新资本(或以某种股份发行的方式),回报都可能微乎其微,甚至随时间逐渐侵蚀,而价值投资者却在等待市场认识到这一低估值,并推动股价上涨以反映此情况。
7 for any new capital that its hapless investors allow it to retain or subscribe for in some form of share issue), or even erodes over time, whilst the value investor is waiting for the lowly valuation to be recognised and the share price to rise to reflect this.
而且,即使价值投资者判断正确,并且这种情况确实发生了,他们还需要卖出已经实现价值的股票,再寻找另一只被低估的股票,重新开始。这种行为显然会产生交易成本,但价值投资无法通过“买入并持有”策略来实施。在投资中,你“吃什么就是什么”,从长期来看,采用这种方法的任何投资组合的回报,往往会趋近于公司本身产生的回报,而大多数价值股的回报都较低。正如沃伦·巴菲特的商业伙伴查理·芒格所说:“从长期来看,一只股票的回报很难超过其背后企业的回报。如果一家企业在四十年的时间里资本回报率为百分之六,你持有它四十年,你得到的回报不会与百分之六有太大差别——即使你最初是以大幅折扣买下的。反过来,如果一家企业在二十或三十年的时间里资本回报率达到百分之十八,即使你支付了看似昂贵的价格,最终也会得到极好的结果。”此处强调为我们所加。
Moreover, even when the value investor gets it right and this happens, they then need to sell the stock which has achieved this and find another undervalued stock and start again. This activity obviously incurs dealing costs but value investing is not something which can be pursued with a ‘buy and hold’ strategy. In investment you ‘become what you eat’ insofar as over the long term the returns on any portfolio which has such an approach will tend to gravitate to the returns generated by the companies themselves, which are low for most value stocks. As Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s business partner, said: ‘Over the long term, it’s hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns six percent on capital over forty years and you hold it for that forty years, you’re not going to make much different than a six percent return — even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns eighteen percent on capital over twenty or thirty years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you’ll end up with one hell of a result.’ Our emphasis added.
芒格先生说的不是一套理论,也不是个人观点——他讲的是数学上的必然。唯一的不确定在于,我们有没有能力预判遥远未来的回报,这也是我们偏爱投资那些相对可预测的生意的原因。
Mr Munger is not offering a theory or an opinion — what he is saying is a mathematical certainty. The only uncertainty concerns our ability to forecast returns far ahead, which is why we prefer to invest in relatively predictable businesses.
价值投资最大的缺陷在于,它没有利用股票的一个独特特性。股票是唯一一种收益会自动再投资的资产。支付股息后的留存收益(或者如果你更喜欢用现金流的说法,我们也这么用)会被重新投入到企业中。房地产不会这样——你收到的是租金,而不是对建筑的进一步投资;债券也不会这样——你拿到利息,但不会自动获得更多债券。
The biggest flaw in value investing is that is does not seek to take advantage of a unique characteristic of equities. Equities are the only asset in which a portion of your return is automatically reinvested for you. The retained earnings (or free cash flow if you prefer that measure, as we do) after payment of the dividend are reinvested in the business. This does not happen with real estate — you receive rent not a further investment in buildings, or with bonds — you get paid interest but no more bonds.
留存收益再投入企业,是复利增长的一台强大引擎。20 世纪标普 500 指数的涨幅中,大约 80% 并非来自估值变化,而是来自企业盈利及留存资本再投资。假如你是一位杰出的(而且长寿的)价值投资者,在估值低点买入标普 500 指数——那是 1917 年,美国刚卷入第一次世界大战,市盈率仅 5.3 倍——然后在估值高点卖出,也就是 1999 年市盈率高达 34 倍的时候,那么在股息再投资的情况下,你这段时期的年化回报率为 11.6%,但其中每年只有 2.3 个百分点来自
This retention of earnings which are reinvested in the business can be a powerful mechanism for compounding gains. Some 80% of the gains in the S&P 500 over the 20th century came not from changes in valuation but from the companies’ earnings and reinvestment of retained capital. If you were a great (and long-lived) value investor who bought the S&P 500 at its low in valuation terms, which was in 1917 when America entered world war one and it was on a P/E of 5.3x, and sold it at its high in valuation terms in 1999 when it was on a P/E of 34x, your annual return during that period would have been 11.6% with dividends reinvested, but only 2.3% p.a. came from the
18.9 倍。
8 massive increase in P/E and 9.3% (80% of 11.6%) came from the companies’ earnings and reinvesting their retained earnings.
标普的例子是 500 家平均水平的大公司。当你投资一家留存资本回报率高、而非平平无奇的公司时,你收益中来自公司再投资活动的比例会更为极端。
The S&P example is for 500 average large companies. This proportion of your return from the companies’ reinvestment activities is even more extreme when you invest in a good company with a high return on retained capital than in an average company.
沃伦·巴菲特用一句话就精辟地概括了这一切:
“以合理的价格买一家出色的公司,远胜于以低廉的价格买一家平庸的公司。”
All of this was much more succinctly encapsulated by Warren Buffett when he said: ‘It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a fair company at a wonderful price.’
他从师从本杰明·格雷厄姆(《聪明的投资者》与《证券分析》作者)的传统价值投资者,转变为追求企业价值复利增长的优质投资者,这一转变源于菲利普·费雪(《怎样选择成长股》作者)的教诲以及查理·芒格的影响。
He made the transition from being a traditional value investor based upon studying under Benjamin Graham (author of “The Intelligent Investor” and “Security Analysis”) into a quality investor looking for companies which could compound in value based upon the teachings of Philip Fisher (author of Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits) and the influence of Charlie Munger.
以下是巴菲特在 1989 年致伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东的信中,对这一转变的解释:
“最初所谓的‘便宜’价格,最终可能并非真正的捡漏。在一个艰难的行业中,问题刚解决一个,另一个便又浮出水面——厨房里的蟑螂绝不会只有一只。再者,你最初获得的任何优势,都会很快被企业微薄的回报所侵蚀。例如,如果你以 800 万美元买入一家企业,而它可出售或清算变现 1000 万美元,且你迅速采取任一举措,便可能实现高回报。但若这家企业在十年后以 1000 万美元售出,而期间每年仅赚取并分配相当于成本几个百分点的利润,那么这笔投资将令人失望。时间是优秀企业的朋友,却是平庸企业的敌人。”
Here’s how Buffett explained this change in his 1989 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders: ‘The original 'bargain' price probably will not turn out to be such a steal after all. In a difficult business, no sooner is one problem solved than another surfaces — never is there just one cockroach in the kitchen. [Plus], any initial advantage you secure will be quickly eroded by the low return that the business earns. For example, if you buy a business for $8 million that can be sold or liquidated for $10 million and promptly take either course, you can realize a high return. But the investment will disappoint if the business is sold for $10 million in ten years and in the interim has annually earned and distributed only a few percent on cost. Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre.’
等待价值投资见效的问题,从 MSCI 世界价值指数(美元)的表现中可见一斑:该指数在 2007 年 10 月底触及 6570 点,而到 2016 年 2 月底仍低于这一水平。截至 2019 年 12 月 31 日,其点位为 9812 点,仅比 2007 年的峰值高出 49%。
The problems of waiting for value investment to pay off can be seen in the performance of the MSCI World Value Index (USD) which hit 6570 at the end of October 2007 and was lower than this at the end of February 2016. At 31st December 2019 it stood at 9812, just 49% higher than its 2007 peak value.
对比一下标普 500 指数(美元),它在 2007 年 10 月 9 日见顶,但到 2013 年就已收复 2007 年的高点,截至 2019 年 12 月 31 日,该指数比高点高出 189%。
Compare and contrast the S&P 500 (USD) which peaked on 9th October 2007 but had regained its 2007 high by 2013 and at 31st December 2019 stood 189% higher.
不过,我仿佛已经听到价值投资者的歌声在耳边回响,他们会把这份数据当作自己长期预言的佐证——价值投资的复兴即将开启。正如老话所说:“手里拿着锤子的人,看什么都像钉子。”
Ah, but I can hear the siren song of the value investors who will take this data as confirmation that the resurgence of value investment which they have long predicted is about to commence. As an old saying goes ‘To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail’.
9
策略跑输市场的时间越长,让投资者付出的代价越大,那歌声就越发诱人。早晚有一天,他们会对上一次。但问题是:第一,他们根本不知道那天何时到来(注意上面提到的 2012 年《投资顾问》杂志的评论);第二,如果迄今为止你一直听从他们的建议,那得靠一次惊天逆转才能补回错失的收益;第三,这种局面可能还会持续相当长的时间。
9 The longer the strategy underperforms the market and the more money it costs investors the louder the siren song becomes. And sooner or later they will be right. But a) they have no idea when that will be (note the reference above to Investment Adviser’s comment in 2012); b) if you had followed their advice to date it would require a gargantuan reversal of performance to make up the gains forgone; and c) that may continue to be the case for some time to come.
最后,有些评论者认为,解决之道在于将投资组合的一部分同时部署在两种策略上——一部分投优质成长股,一部分投价值股。我认为,这种分散化策略“无害”的说法,已被沃伦·巴菲特相当彻底地驳倒了,但他又懂什么呢?或许我们应该这样看待价值投资与优质成长策略之争:你更愿意站在哪一边——a) 英国财经媒体的大多数撰稿人,以及那些花钱就能买来引用的投资顾问;还是 b) 沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格(伯克希尔·哈撒韦)、比尔·盖茨(微软)、贝当古家族(欧莱雅)、布朗家族(布朗-福曼)、沃尔顿家族(沃尔玛)以及伯纳德·阿尔诺(LVMH)?后者似乎都是靠将投资集中于单一优质企业、不因估值波动而交易,才积累了惊人的财富。所谓跨策略分散不会造成损害的说法,看来也就那么回事。
Lastly, there are some commentators who say that one way to address this is to have a portion of your portfolio invested in both strategies — some in quality growth and some in value. I think the assertion that there is no harm in this diversification approach has been disproved rather comprehensively by Warren Buffett, but what does he know? Perhaps we should look at the value investment versus quality and growth strategy debate this way: would you rather side with a) a large section of the UK financial press and rent-a-quote investment advisers; or b) Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger (Berkshire Hathaway), Bill Gates (Microsoft), the Bettencourt family (L’Oréal), the Brown family (Brown-Forman), the Walton family (Walmart) and Bernard Arnault (LVMH)? The latter all seem to have become extraordinarily rich by concentrating their investment in a single high quality business and not trading regardless of valuation. So much for it not doing any harm to diversify across strategies.
2019 年英国股市投资动态,无论如何绕不开伍德福德这个名字。伍德福德投资管理公司因旗下 LF 伍德福德股票收益基金遭遇“暂停赎回”而走向终结,这无疑是去年行业内的头号新闻。
It seems impossible to comment upon developments in equity investing in the UK in 2019 without mentioning the word Woodford. The demise of Woodford Investment Management following the ‘gating’ of its main LF Woodford Equity Income Fund was undoubtedly the main news in the industry last year.
我们无意对此事泛泛而谈,也无意幸灾乐祸地加以评论。我们早已察觉伍德福德那边酝酿的问题,但一直保持沉默。关于伍德福德,你只会看到我们在股东大会上回答投资者直接提问时的只言片语。我们认为,除非投资者问起,否则评论竞争对手有失职业风度。只盼业内其他人也能秉持同样的立场。
We have no desire to engage in a general commentary on this matter or to engage in an unseemly exercise in schadenfreude. We had long identified the problems which were brewing at Woodford but we kept our own counsel on the matter. The only comments you will find from us mentioning Woodford were in answer to direct questions concerning Woodford from our investors at our Annual Meeting. We regard it as a lack of professional courtesy to comment upon our competitors except when we are asked to do so by our investors. We only wish others in the industry would maintain the same stance.
不过,既然伍德福德现在很难再让局面恶化,我们觉得可以更自由地评论它了。而且伍德福德事件给行业提出了重要问题,其中一些问题也指向我们,我觉得投资者应当知道我们的回应。
However, we now feel freer to comment on Woodford since it is hard to see how it can now exacerbate the situation, and I feel that we need to as the Woodford debacle has raised important questions about the industry, some of which have been directed at us and I feel that our investors should know our response.
伍德福德基金最明显的问题,在于日交易型开放式基金与大量未上市资产持有这一致命组合。
The most obvious problem at Woodford was the lethal combination of a daily-dealing open-ended fund with significant holdings in unquoted
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家公司,以及在小型上市公司中持有的较大比例股份,但这些公司的流动性非常有限。尽管这显然是个非常糟糕的主意,但伍德福德并非唯一遇到此问题的基金。英国脱欧公投后,一大批英国房地产基金因同样的原因被暂停赎回,最近 M&G 房地产基金也是如此。开放式每日交易基金显然不适合持有此类资产。每日交易和开放式结构让投资者产生了流动性幻觉,但当大量投资者同时试图行使这一权利时,其效果就像在拥挤的剧院里大喊“着火了!”一样。
10 companies and large percentage stakes in small quoted companies which had very limited liquidity. Whilst this was clearly a very bad idea, Woodford is not the only fund to have encountered this problem. A large swathe of UK property funds was gated after the Brexit Referendum for the same reason, and more recently so was the M&G Property Fund. An open-ended daily-dealing fund is clearly not an appropriate vehicle through which to hold such assets. The daily- dealing and open-ended structure give investors the illusion of liquidity but when a large number of them try to exercise it at once the effect is similar to shouting ‘Fire!’ in a crowded theatre.
在评论人士似乎未能意识到的种种原因中,投资平台的兴起对该领域乃至基金管理行业其他方面产生的影响不容忽视。如今,任何开放式基金若想在散户投资者和财富管理机构用于管理其投资的主要投资平台上有效推广,除非该基金提供每日交易,否则难以为继。由于这些平台均不接受非每日交易的开放式基金,基金管理人即便面对完全不适合采用此种结构的策略,也只得选择每日交易的模式。
Amongst the causes which commentators seem to have failed to realise is the effect which the rise of investment platforms has had on this, and indeed other areas of the fund management industry. It is now the case that no one can expect to effectively market an open- ended fund on any of the major investment platforms which retail investors and wealth managers use to manage their investments unless it is a daily-dealing fund. As none of these platforms will admit an open-ended fund, unless it allows daily-dealing, that is what fund managers will use even for strategies for which this structure is wholly inappropriate.
Fundsmith 股票基金在此问题上的立场如何?我们始终将流动性视为一个重要问题。作为证明,自 2012 年起,我们就在基金概况中公布了一项流动性指标。同样,我们只投资于大型公司。截至 2019 年 12 月 31 日,我们基金所持公司的平均市值为 1140 亿英镑,我们估计,可在七天内变现基金中 57% 的资产。
Where does the Fundsmith Equity Fund stand on this? We have always regarded liquidity as an important issue. As evidence of this, we have published a liquidity measure on our Fund factsheet since 2012. Equally we only invest in large companies. At 31st December 2019 the average market capitalisation of the companies in our Fund was £114bn and we estimate we could liquidate 57% of the Fund in seven days.
现实情况是,唯一能保证 100% 按需流动性的基金类型就是现金基金,我想那并非你期望我们投资的。但我猜测你会发现,很难找到比我们流动性更强的股票基金。这足以说明其流动性之高,就连我们持有的流动性最差的股票,也包含富时 100 指数成分股公司、洲际酒店集团、英特泰克和赛奇。
The reality is that the only type of fund which can guarantee 100% liquidity on demand is a cash fund, and I presume that is not what you wish us to invest in. But I suspect you will find it hard to find more liquid equity funds than ours. It tells you much about its liquidity that some of the least liquid stocks we hold are the FTSE 100 companies, InterContinental Hotels, Intertek and Sage.
伍德福德事件还引出了另一个问题,那就是对所谓的“明星”基金经理的质疑,媒体似乎对这个标签着迷不已。我不敢说我喜欢这个词,在我看来,它和挑选专业顾问时使用的“选美游行”这个词一样不妥,因为在我看来,许多顾问并不具备明显的上镜特质。
Another question which arises from the Woodford incident is the question mark over so-called ‘star’ fund managers, a label the press seems obsessed by. I can’t say I like the term, it strikes me as equally inappropriate as the term ‘beauty parade’ which is used when selecting professional advisers, many of whom do not seem to me to have obvious photogenic qualities.
我认为这种担忧关注错了问题。我觉得,避开由“明星”基金经理掌管的基金,就跟因为球队有明星球员而拒绝支持球队一样,没什么道理。麻烦的根源不在于球队有明星球员,而在于
I think this concern is focused on the wrong issue. I think it makes no more sense to avoid funds run by ‘star’ fund managers any more than it does to avoid supporting sporting teams because they have star players. The trouble arises not because teams have star players but
如果明星球员尝试玩一个与成就其出色表现不同的游戏,结果会怎样?如果克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多改当守门员,尤文图斯还能表现出色吗?尤塞恩·博尔特转型踢足球的第二次职业生涯进展又如何?
11 if the star tries to play a different game to the one which delivered their stellar performance. Would Juventus do as well if Cristiano Ronaldo played as goalkeeper? How is Usain Bolt’s second career as a soccer player going?
尼尔·伍德福德凭借其管理的收益基金(Income Fund)在景顺永续(Invesco Perpetual)声名鹊起。期间,他曾对两个行业板块采取了备受瞩目的负面立场。在 2000 年互联网泡沫破裂前夕,他似乎预见到了即将到来的风暴,因而避开了科技、媒体和电信类股票,这一决策大获成功。同时,他还布局了一些在互联网狂热中被冷落的老经济股,这些股票在当时经历了估值下调。同样,在信贷危机酝酿之际,他决定不持有银行股。
Neil Woodford made his name as a fund manager at Invesco Perpetual with his successful Income Fund. In the course of this he took two high profile negative positions on sectors. In the run up to the dotcom bust in 2000 he seems to have seen what was coming and avoided investments in technology, media and telecommunications stocks which was a major success. He also paired this with taking positions in some of the old economy neglected stocks which had become de-rated during the dotcom mania. Similarly, in the run up to the Credit Crisis he decided not to hold bank stocks.
然而,当他创立自己的基金管理公司后,投资组合涵盖了形形色色的公司——AA 集团、阿斯利康、Capita 集团、帝国品牌、Provident 金融集团和 Stobart 集团都只是其中几例。除它们日后表现都不佳之外,我看不出这些公司有任何共同点。这一组合之外,他还大量投资于初创企业和生物科技领域的非上市股权。我认为问题根源在于,尼尔·伍德福德改变了自己的投资策略。用行业术语来说,他犯了“风格漂移”的毛病。问题不在于他被视为明星经理,而在于他换了自己的打法。这种风格漂移其实在他供职于景顺永道时便已露出苗头——他的收益基金开始大举重仓规模小、流动性差的非上市公司股票,而自立门户之后,这种倾向愈演愈烈。
However, when he opened his own fund management business he took positions in a wide range of companies — AA, AstraZeneca, Capita, Imperial Brands, Provident Financial and Stobart are some examples. There is no common theme that I can detect to those companies, other than the fact that they all subsequently fared badly. This was supplemented by a raft of unquoted investments in start-ups and biotech. My suggestion is that what went wrong is that Neil Woodford changed his investment strategy. In the technical jargon of the industry, he engaged in ‘style drift’. The problem wasn’t that he was regarded as a star but that he changed his game. This style drift actually started when he was still at Invesco Perpetual in that his Income Fund began to accumulate large stakes in small illiquid companies and unquoteds, but this was taken further once he had his own firm.
Fundsmith 的投资策略会出现风格漂移或类似变化吗?我认为不会。我们在成立之初发布了一份《股东手册》,阐述了投资策略,并在每年的致股东信中分析策略执行情况;我们还是英国唯一一家每年召开股东大会的共同基金,投资者可以在会上当面质疑我们,并看到问题得到公开答复。因此,如果我们能在你们毫不知情的情况下改变投资策略,那才叫怪事。
Is there any chance of style drift or a similar change of strategy at Fundsmith? I think not. We published an Owner’s Manual at the outset which describes our investment strategy, write to you in these annual letters analysing how we are faring in implementing our strategy and are the only mutual fund in the UK which holds an annual meeting at which our investors can question us and see their questions answered publicly. So, it would be extraordinary if we were able to effect a change in our investment strategy without you noticing.
而且,我们无意改变我们的策略。我们确信,长期来看,这一策略能够带来卓越的回报。我想提出一个不同的问题,它将伍德福德事件的讨论与早前关于从优质股转向价值股的“轮动”讨论联系起来。如果你预期这种“轮动”会在某个时点发生,价值股将迎来一段风光时期,那么你更希望我们试图提前预判,转而采用一种主要或完全基于估值来买入股票的价值投资方法,还是更希望我们坚持现有的方法,即
Moreover, we have no desire to change our strategy. We are convinced that it can deliver superior returns over the long term. I would pose a different question which links the discussion of the Woodford affair with the earlier discussion of the ‘rotation’ from quality stocks into value stocks. If you expect such a ‘rotation’ to occur at some point and for value stocks to enjoy a period in the sun would you rather we tried to anticipate that and switched into a value investment approach of buying stocks based mainly or solely on the basis of their valuation or would you rather we stuck to our existing approach of
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长期买入并持有优质企业如何?我建议后者或许更佳,而这正是我们当前的做法。Fundsmith 基金将不会出现风格漂移。
12 buying and holding high quality businesses? I would suggest the latter approach might be better, and it is what we are doing. There will be no style drift at Fundsmith.
最后,祝大家新年快乐,感谢各位对我们基金的持续支持。我和同事们期待在 2020 年 2 月 25 日的股东大会上与诸位见面,并尽力解答各位的疑问。详情请见随函附上的邀请函。
Finally, I wish you a happy New Year and thank you for your continued support for our Fund. My colleagues and I look forward to seeing many of you at our Annual Shareholders’ Meeting on 25th February 2020 and to trying to answer any questions you may have. Please see the enclosed invitation for details.
Yours sincerely,
Yours sincerely,
特里·史密斯
首席执行官
Fundsmith LLP
Terry Smith CEO Fundsmith LLP
免责声明:基金史密斯股票基金的《关键投资者信息文件》及英文版招募说明书可通过基金史密斯网站查阅或索取,投资者在购买该基金份额前应阅读这些文件。过往业绩未必能预示未来表现。投资价值及收益可能下跌亦可能上涨,并受汇率变动影响,您可能无法收回全部初始投资金额。基金史密斯有限责任合伙公司不提供投资建议,亦不就其产品的适用性作出任何推荐。本文件由基金史密斯有限责任合伙公司发布,该公司经金融行为监管局授权并受其监管。
Disclaimer: A Key Investor Information Document and an English language prospectus for the Fundsmith Equity Fund are available via the Fundsmith website or on request and investors should consult these documents before purchasing shares in the fund. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise and be affected by changes in exchange rates, and you may not get back the amount of your original investment. Fundsmith LLP does not offer investment advice or make any recommendations regarding the suitability of its product. This document is communicated by Fundsmith LLP which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
信息来源:除非另有说明,否则数据均来自 Fundsmith LLP 与彭博社。
Sources: Fundsmith LLP & Bloomberg unless otherwise stated.
投资组合换手率按照英国金融行为监管局(FCA)规定的方法计算。该方法将总股份买入和卖出减去总申购和赎回,与基金平均净资产值进行比较。
Portfolio turnover has been calculated in accordance with the methodology laid down by the FCA. This compares the total share purchases and sales less total creations and liquidations with the average net asset value of the fund.
市盈率和自由现金流收益率基于过去十二个月的数据,除非另有说明,截至 2019 年 12 月 31 日。
P/E ratios and Free Cash Flow Yields are based on trailing twelve month data and as at 31st December 2019 unless otherwise stated.
基金流动性基于过去 20 个交易日平均成交量的 30%。
Fund liquidity is based on 30% of average trailing 20 day volume.
MSCI 世界指数是 MSCI 公司的专有财产。MSCI 对本报告所载任何 MSCI 数据不作任何明示或暗示的保证或陈述,也不承担任何责任。MSCI 数据不得进一步分发或用作其他指数、任何证券或最终产品的基础。本报告未经 MSCI 批准、审核或制作。全球行业分类标准(GICS)由 MSCI 和标准普尔共同开发,是其专有财产,“GICS®”是 MSCI 和标准普尔的服务商标。
MSCI World Index is the exclusive property of MSCI Inc. MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indices or any securities or final products. This report is not approved, reviewed or produced by MSCI. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) was developed by and is the exclusive property of MSCI and Standard & Poor’s and “GICS®” is a service mark of MSCI and Standard & Poor’s.
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