Fundsmith股票基金——致股东年度信2023

2023 · 书信 · 原文约 3564 词
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January 2024

January 2024

亲爱的投资者同仁:

Dear Fellow Investor,

这是致富达史密斯股票基金(“基金”)持有人的第十四封年度信函。

This is the fourteenth annual letter to owners of Fundsmith Equity Fund (‘Fund’).

下表列出了最近一个日历年的业绩数据,以及自 2010 年 11 月 1 日成立以来的累计和年化业绩,并附上各项对比基准。

The table below shows performance figures for the last calendar year and the cumulative and annualised performance since inception on 1st November 2010 and various comparators.

2023 年 1 月 1 日至 12 月 31 日 成立至 2023 年 12 月 31 日 索提诺比率 5

% 总回报 累计 年化

2023

1

范德斯密股权基金 +12.4% +549.7% +15.3% 0.83

股票 2 +16.8% +316.7% +11.5% 0.51

英国债券 3 +5.6% +26.5% +1.8% 不适用

现金 4 +4.6% +12.8% +0.9% 不适用

该基金不以任何基准为参照进行管理,上述比较对象仅供参考。

1

基金 T 类累计份额,扣除费用,按英国中午时间定价,来源:彭博。

2

MSCI 世界指数,以英镑计净回报,按美国市场收盘价定价,来源:彭博。

3

彭博/巴克莱债券指数,英国政府债 5–10 年期,来源:彭博。

4

英镑利率,来源:彭博。

5

索提诺比率为成立至 2023 年 12 月 31 日期间数据,无风险利率 3.5%,来源:金融快报分析。

1st Jan to Inception to 31st Dec 2023 Sortino % Total Return 31st Dec Cumulative Annualised Ratio5 2023 1 Fundsmith Equity Fund +12.4 +549.7 +15.3 0.83 Equities2 +16.8 +316.7 +11.5 0.51 UK Bonds3 +5.6 +26.5 +1.8 n/a Cash4 +4.6 +12.8 +0.9 n/a The Fund is not managed with reference to any benchmark, the above comparators are provided for information purposes only. 1 T Class Accumulation shares, net of fees, priced at noon UK time, source: Bloomberg. 2 MSCI World Index, £ net, priced at US market close, source: Bloomberg. 3 Bloomberg/Barclays Bond Indices UK Gov. 5–10 year, source: Bloomberg. 4 £ Interest Rate, source: Bloomberg. 5 Sortino ratio is since inception to 31.12.23, 3.5% risk free rate, source: Financial Express Analytics.

表格展示的是 T 类累计份额的表现,这是最常见的份额类别,也是我本人投资的份额类别,该类份额在 2023 年上涨了 12.4%。

The table shows the performance of the T Class Accumulation shares, the most commonly held share class and one in which I am invested, which rose by 12.4% in 2023.

这一数字与按英镑计算、股息再投资的 MSCI 世界指数 16.8% 的涨幅相比。因此,2023 年该基金跑输了这个比较基准,但从更长期的角度看或许更有参考价值,也更符合我们的投资目标和策略。自成立以来,该基金的年化回报率比 MSCI 世界指数高出近 4 个百分点,同时下行价格波动显著更小,这从索提诺比率(Sortino Ratio)为 0.83、而指数为 0.51 中可见一斑。这简单意味着,该基金每单位价格波动所带来的回报比指数高出约 63%((0.83÷0.51)-1)×100)。

This compares with a rise of 16.8% for the MSCI World Index in sterling with dividends reinvested. The Fund therefore underperformed this comparator in 2023 but a longer-term Fundsmith LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England & Wales: OC354233. Registered office: 33 C avendish Square, London, W1G 0PW. perspective may be useful and is certainly more consistent with our investment aims and strategy. Since inception, the Fund has returned nearly 4% p.a. more than the MSCI World Index and has done so with significantly less downside price volatility as shown by the Sortino Ratio of 0.83 versus 0.51 for the Index. This simply means that the Fund has returned about 63%, ((0.83÷0.51)-1)x100, more than the Index for each unit of price volatility.

我们的基金自 2010 年 11 月成立以来,在投资协会全球板块的 165 只基金中仍是表现最佳,回报率高出该板块平均水平 335 个百分点,同期板块平均回报仅为 215%。

Our Fund is still the best performer since its inception in November 2010 in the Investment Association Global sector of 165 funds, with a return 335 percentage points above the sector average which has delivered just 215% over the same timeframe.

跑赢市场,甚至实现正回报,都不是您应该期望我们的基金在每个年度或报告期都能做到的事,而在 2023 年,跑赢市场的难度更是非同寻常。纳斯达克综合指数在 2023 年以美元计上涨 43%,其表现主要由少数几家公司主导,也就是所谓的“七圣徒”——Alphabet、亚马逊、苹果、Meta、微软、英伟达和特斯拉——它们贡献了该指数涨幅的 68%。英伟达是 AI 应用芯片的设计商,仅这一家公司就占了 43% 涨幅中的 11%。我们并没有持有全部七圣徒,而且即使它们都符合我们的投资标准,我们可能也不愿意冒这个风险去全数持有。

Outperforming the market or even making a positive return is not something you should expect from our Fund in every year or reporting period, and outperforming the market was more than usually challenging in 2023. The performance of the Nasdaq Composite Index, which was up 43% in USD in 2023, was dominated by a few companies, the so-called Magnificent Seven — Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla — which accounted for 68% of that Index’s gains. Nvidia, the designer of chips for use in AI applications, alone accounted for 11% of the 43% gain. We do not own all the Magnificent Seven and would probably not be willing to take the risk of doing so, even if all of them fitted our investment criteria.

在审视个股对业绩的贡献时,我更倾向于从问题入手。2023 年拖累基金业绩最严重的五只股票分别是:

In looking at individual stock contribution to performance I prefer to start with the problems. The bottom five detractors from the Fund’s performance in 2023 were:

股票 | 贡献度

雅诗兰黛 | -1.8%

味好美 | -1.1%

帝亚吉欧 | -0.6%

梅特勒-托利多 | -0.6%

百富门 | -0.5%

来源:道富集团

Stock Attribution Estée Lauder -1.8% McCormick -1.1% Diageo -0.6% Mettler-Toledo -0.6% Brown Forman -0.5% Source: State Street

我们卖掉了雅诗兰黛的股份。疫情后中国重新开放,旅游零售市场需求与供给失衡,这家公司应对失当,暴露出其供应链的严重缺陷。

We sold our stake in Estée Lauder whose mishandling of the demand/supply situation in China following reopening post Covid and in the travel retail market revealed serious inadequacies in its supply chain.

麦考密克尚未将餐饮服务业务的利润率恢复到疫情前的水平。

McCormick has yet to return the profit margins in its food service business to the level they were before the pandemic.

梅特勒-托利多公司因疫情过后实验室设备需求下滑、中国市场需求的下降以及生物技术公司融资环境趋紧而遭受打击。然而,我们没有

Mettler-Toledo suffered from a downturn in demand for laboratory equipment post the pandemic, demand falling in China and a tighter funding market for biotech companies. However, we have no

2

我们对它们的长期前景心存顾虑,尤其是我们在梅特勒-托利多(Mettler-Toledo)的持仓规模不大,或许可以利用股价疲软的机会增持更多。

2 concerns about their longer-term prospects and our holding in Mettler-Toledo, in particular, is small and we may be able to use share price weakness to acquire more.

布朗-福曼公司和帝亚吉欧公司与其他酒类企业一样,因需求疲软而遭受打击,尤其在美洲地区。帝亚吉欧的首席执行官伊万·梅内塞斯爵士于 6 月去世,原定于此后退休。在我们看来,他是企业界一位默默无闻的英雄。

Brown-Forman and Diageo have suffered along with other drinks companies from softening in demand, especially in the Americas. Diageo’s CEO, Sir Ivan Menezes, died in June just before he was scheduled to retire. In our view he was one of the unsung heroes of the corporate world.

本年度,为该基金业绩贡献最大的五个因素分别是:

For the year, the top five contributors to the Fund’s performance were:

股票 | 贡献占比

-|-

Meta 平台 | +4.5%

微软 | +3.9%

诺和诺德 | +3.6%

欧莱雅 | +2.1%

爱德士实验室 | +1.4%

来源:道富集团

Stock Attribution Meta Platforms +4.5% Microsoft +3.9% Novo Nordisk +3.6% L’Oréal +2.1% IDEXX Laboratories +1.4% Source: State Street

Meta Platforms(原 Facebook)的表现让我琢磨,是不是该设一只基金,专门每年只投我们投资组合里挨批最多的那只股票。Meta 第三次出现在这一贡献榜前列,微软则是第八次,2011 年我们以每股约 25 美元开始买入时,它还招来尖锐的批评(2023 年年底价格 376 美元)。

Meta Platforms’ (formerly Facebook) performance makes me wonder whether I should have a fund which invests solely in the one stock in our portfolio each year for which we have received the most critical comments. Meta makes its third appearance in this list of top contributors while Microsoft appears for the eighth time having attracted strident criticism when we started buying at about $25 a share in 2011 (2023 year end price $376).

诺和诺德今年声名鹊起,因为其减肥药 Wegovy 大获成功(用于治疗糖尿病时则叫 Ozempic)。不过,我们持有这只股票已经七年了——吸引我们的是它看似与众不同的药物研发思路,以及独特的股权结构。我们不知道还有哪家制药公司,公开宣称的目标竟是根除给自己带来大部分收入的那种疾病。诺和诺德基金会持有的控股权,似乎保证了这家企业确实会采取长期主义的经营方式。诺和诺德已是第四次跻身我们贡献最大的前五大持仓——早在“减肥”二字与诺和诺德沾上关系之前,这笔投资就已经相当成功了。

Novo Nordisk rose to prominence this year as a result of the wild success of its weight loss drug Wegovy (also known as Ozempic when sold for treating diabetes). However, we have owned the stock for seven years — attracted by its seemingly unusual approach to drug discovery and its ownership structure. We are not aware of another drug company whose stated aim is the eradication of the ailment from which it derives most of its revenues. The controlling stake held by the Novo Nordisk Foundation seems to guarantee a genuine long-term approach to the business. Novo is making its fourth appearance in our top five contributors — this was a successful investment long before the words ‘weight loss’ were uttered in relation to Novo.

欧莱雅是长期被看好的公司,其在中国市场的表现与雅诗兰黛形成了鲜明对比。

L’Oréal is a long-term favourite whose handling of the China market contrasts sharply with that of Estée Lauder.

IDEXX 是兽医诊断设备供应商,尽管市场担心新冠疫情后养宠热潮过后会出现需求回落,它仍第五次出现在我们贡献最大的五家公司之列。

IDEXX, the supplier of veterinary diagnostic equipment, makes its fifth appearance in our table of top five contributors despite concerns about a hangover following the upsurge in pet ownership during Covid.

我们继续采用一个简单的三步投资策略:

3 We continue to apply a simple three step investment strategy:

• 买入好公司

• 别付太高的价钱

• 然后就什么都不用做

• Buy good companies • Don’t overpay • Do nothing

接下来,我将逐一审视我们在每一项上的表现。

I will review how we are doing against each of those in turn.

照例,我们想通过下面这张表格,让大家对这些问题中最首要、最关键的一点——我们是否持有好公司——有所了解。这张表格展示的是,如果 Fundsmith 股票基金(Fundsmith Equity Fund)不是一只基金,而是一家公司,并且以“透视”原则核算其投资组合中所持股份,那么它会是什么样,同时与市场基准——这里指富时 100 指数(FTSE 100)和标普 500 指数(S&P 500)——进行对比。这张表格还展示了投资组合随时间的变化情况。

As usual we seek to give some insight into the first and most important of these — whether we own good companies — by giving you the following table which shows what Fundsmith Equity Fund would be like if instead of being a fund it was a company and accounted for the stakes which it owns in the portfolio on a ‘look- through’ basis, and compares this with the market, in this case the FTSE 100 and the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500). This also shows you how the portfolio has evolved over time.

年份截止20162017201820192020202120222023标普 500 指数 2023富时 100 指数 2023
Fundsmith 股票基金投资组合

S&P FTSE Fundsmith Equity Fund Portfolio 500 100 Year ended 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 2023

ROCE 27% 28% 29% 29% 25% 28% 32% 32% 18% 17%

毛利率 62% 63% 65% 66% 65% 64% 64% 63% 45% 41%

营业利润率 26% 26% 28% 27% 23% 26% 28% 29% 16% 15%

现金转化率 99% 102% 95% 97% 101% 95% 88% 91% 76% 85%

利息保障倍数 17 倍 17 倍 17 倍 16 倍 16 倍 23 倍 20 倍 20 倍 11 倍 10 倍

资料来源:Fundsmith LLP/彭博。

ROCE、毛利率、营业利润率和现金转化率是 Fundsmith 股票基金所投资标的公司的加权平均值,以及富时 100 指数和标普 500 指数的平均值。富时 100 和标普 500 的数据不含金融类股票。利息保障倍数为中位数。

2016–2019 年的比率基于截至 12 月 31 日的最新已报告财年数据,2020–2023 年为过去十二个月数据,定义依据彭博。

现金转化率比较每股自由现金流与每股净利润。

ROCE 27% 28% 29% 29% 25% 28% 32% 32% 18% 17% Gross Margin 62% 63% 65% 66% 65% 64% 64% 63% 45% 41% Operating Margin 26% 26% 28% 27% 23% 26% 28% 29% 16% 15% Cash Conversion 99% 102% 95% 97% 101% 95% 88% 91% 76% 85% Interest Cover 17x 17x 17x 16x 16x 23x 20x 20x 11x 10x Source: Fundsmith LLP/Bloomberg. ROCE, Gross Margin, Operating Margin and Cash Conversion are the weighted mean of the underlying companies invested in by the Fundsmith Equity Fund and mean for the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 Indices. The FTSE 100 and S&P 500 numbers exclude financial stocks. Interest Cover is median. 2016–2019 ratios are based on last reported fiscal year accounts as of 31 st December and for 2020–23 are Trailing Twelve Months and as defined by Bloomberg. Cash Conversion compares Free Cash Flow per Share with Net Income per Share.

2023 年,投资组合中各家公司的资本回报率和经营利润率均高于以往。毛利率保持稳定。重要的是,所有这些指标仍显著优于主要指数中的公司(指数中也包含我们的公司)。此外,若在通胀期间持有公司股票,选择高回报率和高毛利率的公司更为有利。

In 2023 returns on capital and operating profit margins were higher in the portfolio companies than in the past. Gross margins were steady. Importantly all of these metrics remain significantly better than the companies in the main indices (which include our companies). Moreover, if you own shares in companies during a period of inflation it is better to own those with high returns and gross margins.

寻找投资标的时,我们关注的一个信号是持续高企的资本回报率。另一个则是增长来源——如果企业无法以这些高回报率实现增长并投入更多资本,那么高回报便意义不大。那么,2023 年我们的公司在这一点上表现如何呢?2023 年,加权平均自由现金流(即企业支付除股息外一切费用后产生的现金,也是我们偏好的衡量指标)增长了 14%。

Consistently high returns on capital are one sign we look for when seeking companies to invest in. Another is a source of growth — high returns are not much use if the business is not able to grow and deploy more capital at these high rates. So how did our companies fare in that respect in 2023? The weighted average free cash flow (the cash the companies generate after paying for everything except the dividend, and our preferred measure) grew by 14% in 2023.

唯一一项仍落后于历史表现的指标是现金转换率,即利润以现金形式实现的程度。尽管 2023 年该比率回升至 91%,但仍低于约 100% 的历史水平,原因是一些异常事件影响了我们旗下少数几家公司,我们预计这些事件在 2024 年将大体上逆转,并给这些公司带来好处。

4 The only metric which continues to lag its historical performance is cash conversion — the degree to which profits are delivered in cash. Although this recovered slightly to 91% in 2023, this is still below its historical level of around 100% as a result of unusual events affecting a handful of our companies which we expect to largely unwind to their benefit in 2024.

截至年底,我们投资组合中公司的平均创办年份为 1916 年。它们合计已超过百年历史。

The average year of foundation of our portfolio companies at the year-end was 1916. Collectively they are over a century old.

我们策略的第二条腿是估值。年初投资组合的加权平均自由现金流收益率(自由现金流占市值的百分比)为 3.2%,年末为 3.0%。标普 500 指数年末的中位数自由现金流收益率为 3.7%。

The second leg of our strategy is about valuation. The weighted average free cash flow (‘FCF’) yield (the free cash flow generated as a percentage of the market value) of the portfolio at the outset of the year was 3.2% and ended it at 3.0%. The year-end median FCF yield on the S&P 500 was 3.7%.

我们的投资组合由基本面远优于标普 500 指数成分股平均水平的公司构成,因此估值高于标普 500 指数成分股的平均水平并不令人意外。这本身并不必然意味着这些股票昂贵,正如低估值的股票并不一定便宜一样。然而,如果如我们所预期的那样,投资组合中公司的现金转化率在 2024 年有所改善,我们预计这种估值差距将会部分消除。

Our portfolio consists of companies that are fundamentally a lot better than the average of those in the S&P 500 so it is no surprise that they are valued more highly than the average S&P 500 company. In itself this does not necessarily make the stocks expensive, any more than a lowly rating makes a stock cheap. However, we expect some of this disparity in valuation to be eradicated in 2024 if, as we expect, the cash conversion of our portfolio companies improves.

接下来谈我们策略的第三条腿,可以简洁地概括为“什么都不做”。将投资组合的换手率降到最低,依旧是我们的目标之一,本期内再次达成,换手率为 11.1%,比平时略高一点。或许更有参考意义的是,我们全年主动交易(不含申购和赎回带来的被动交易成本)只花费了基金平均规模的 0.008%(略低于一个基点)。我们卖出了 Adobe、亚马逊和雅诗兰黛的持股,买入了宝洁、万豪和飞塔的股份。和去年一样,这些名字看起来不少,但换手率并不高,因为有些买卖的仓位规模很小。我们有十家公司持有超过十年,其中五家自 2010 年成立起就一直持有。

Turning to the third leg of our strategy, which we succinctly describe as ‘Do nothing’, minimising portfolio turnover remains one of our objectives and this was again achieved with a portfolio turnover of 11.1% during the period, a little higher than usual. It is perhaps more helpful to know that we spent a total of just 0.008% (just under one basis point) of the Fund’s average value over the year on voluntary dealing (which excludes dealing costs associated with subscriptions and redemptions as these are involuntary). We sold our stakes in Adobe, Amazon and Estée Lauder and purchased stakes in Procter & Gamble, Marriott and Fortinet. As last year this may seem a lot of names for what is not a lot of turnover as in some cases the size of the holding sold or bought was small. We have held ten of our companies for more than 10 years, five of which since inception in 2010.

为什么这一点很重要?因为它有助于将成本降至最低,而降低投资成本是投资者取得满意成果的重要一环。投资者、评论员和顾问们常常过于关注,有时甚至痴迷于年度管理费(AMC)或持续收费率(OCF),后者包含了除 AMC 之外的一些基金收费。2023 年 T 类累计份额的 OCF 为 1.04%。问题在于,OCF 并未包含一项重要的成本要素——交易成本。当基金经理进行买卖交易时,基金通常需要支付付给经纪人的佣金、所交易股票的买卖价差,以及某些情况下的交易税,如英国的印花税。这些成本可能显著增加基金的总费用,却并未计入 OCF 之中。

Why is this important? It helps to minimise costs and minimising the costs of investment is a vital contribution to achieving a satisfactory outcome as an investor. Too often investors, commentators and advisers focus on, or in some cases obsess about, the Annual Management Charge (‘AMC’) or the Ongoing Charges Figure (‘OCF’), which includes some costs over and above the AMC, which are charged to the Fund. The OCF for 2023 for the T Class Accumulation shares was 1.04%. The trouble is that the OCF does 5 not include an important element of costs — the costs of dealing. When a fund manager deals by buying or selling, the fund typically incurs the cost of commission paid to a broker, the bid-offer spread on the stocks dealt in and, in some cases, transaction taxes such as stamp duty in the UK. This can add significantly to the costs of a fund, yet it is not included in the OCF.

我们提供了自己对这一总成本的估算版本,其中包含交易成本,我们称之为投资总成本(TCI)。2023 年,T 类累积份额的 TCI 为 1.05%,涵盖了基金进出资金的全部交易成本,而不仅仅是我们的自愿交易。我们很高兴地看到,在计入交易成本后,我们的 TCI 仅比运营费用率(OCF)高出 0.01%(1 个基点)。然而,我们再次提醒,不要过于执着于费用,以至于忽略了基金的表现。值得指出的是,本函开头的基金业绩表已扣除所有费用,这理应是您关注的重点。

We provide our own version of this total cost including dealing costs, which we have termed the Total Cost of Investment (‘TCI’). For the T Class Accumulation shares in 2023 the TCI was 1.05%, including all costs of dealing for flows into and out of the Fund, not just our voluntary dealing. We are pleased that our TCI is just 0.01% (1 basis point) above our OCF when transaction costs are taken into account. However, we would again caution against becoming obsessed with charges to such an extent that you lose focus on the performance of funds. It is worth pointing out that the performance of our Fund tabled at the beginning of this letter is after charging all fees which should surely be the main focus.

去年,我在信中花了大量篇幅,试图解释低利率和量化宽松时期的背景,以及通胀回潮和利率上调如何影响了公司估值,尤其是那些估值高于平均水平的公司。

Last year I spent quite a lot of this letter trying to explain the background to the period of low interest rates and Quantitative Easing and how the resurgence of inflation and interest rate rises had affected company valuations, and especially those which had above average valuations.

为说明这一效应,不妨看个例子。如果你在 2020 年 6 月(美国国债收益率处于谷底时)向先锋长期美国政府债券指数基金(代码:VBLAX,下称“债券基金”)投入 100 美元,接下来 10 年你获得的总收益仅为 7 美元,也就是每年拿到 70 美分。想靠这笔收益过日子,你得投入大把美元才行。如果你在 2023 年 10 月买入——那可能是本轮经济周期中债券收益率的顶峰——投资期内的总收益将达到 47.50 美元。变化着实不小。

As an illustration of this effect, consider the following. If you had invested $100 in the Vanguard Long US Government Bond Index Fund (Ticker: VBLAX, ‘Bond Fund’) in June 2020, at the trough in yields on US Treasury bonds, your total income over the next 10 years would be a mere $7 i.e. you would receive 70 cents per annum in income. You would have had to invest a lot of dollars to get an income you could live on. Had you invested in October 2023, which may represent the high point in this economic cycle for bond yields, your total income over the life of the investment will be $47.50. Quite a change.

这说明了两点。

This illustrates two points.

其一,若您在 2020 年买入债券基金并持有至 2023 年 10 月,将损失惨重。该债券基金按净值交易,从 2020 年 6 月的峰值 17.71 美元跌至 2023 年 10 月的低点 9.19 美元,跌幅达 48%。这让人看清同期投资优质股票所遭受的损失。当利率急剧上升时,持有股票优于长期债券。

One is that you would have lost a lot of money had you bought the Bond Fund in 2020 and had still been holding it in October 2023. The Bond Fund’s net asset value, at which it trades, declined from a peak of $17.71 in June 2020 to a low of $9.19 in October 2023, a fall of 48%. This puts the losses from investing in high quality equities over this period into perspective. Better to be in equities than long bonds when interest rates rise sharply.

另一个要点是,债券一直为许多投资者提供了颇具吸引力的股票替代选择。如果山姆大叔愿意支付接近 5% 的无风险收益(短期债券几乎就是最接近无风险的投资),那为什么还要冒险投资股票呢?简短的回答是,因为股票能带来更高的回报。1928 年至 2023 年(我能拿到的最早的可靠数据)期间,美国 10 年期国债的年化回报率为 4.6%,而标普 500 指数在股息再投资的情况下,复利年化回报率达到 9.8%。这当然包括了经济大萧条、第二次世界大战,以及更近期的一些较小事件,比如 1987 年股灾、互联网泡沫破裂、2008 至 2009 年的大金融危机,还有新冠疫情。

这并不令人意外。股票具有一种任何其他资产类别(包括债券)都无法提供的特性:属于股东的那部分利润或现金流,每年由公司再投资。这就是未作为股息派发的留存利润,而它的投资正是复利的源泉,支撑着长期投资的回报。在我看来,这是股票投资相对于所有其他资产类别最不为人谈论、也最不被重视的一点。

The other point it illustrates is that bonds have been offering an alluring alternative to equities for many investors. If Uncle Sam is willing to pay a risk-free income (and short dated bonds are as close 6 to risk free as you can get) of close to 5%, why take the risk of investing in equities? The short answer is because equities provide a better return. For the period 1928–2023 (the earliest for which I can get reliable data), the annualised return on 10 Year US Treasury Bonds was 4.6% whereas the S&P 500 compounded at 9.8% with dividends reinvested#. This of course includes the Great Depression and World War Two as well as other more recent and lesser incidents like the 1987 Crash, the Dotcom meltdown, the Great Financial Crisis of 2008–09 and the Covid pandemic. This is unsurprising. Equities benefit from a feature which no other asset class, including bonds, can provide: a portion of the profit or cash flow which belongs to the shareholders is reinvested each year by the company. This is the retained profit which is not paid out as dividends, and its investment is the source of compounding which underpins the returns of long-term investment. In my view this is the least discussed and appreciated aspect of equity investment versus all other asset classes.

既然股票长期跑赢债券,投资者眼下为何还如此执着于持有债券?答案自然是,尽管股票长期表现优于债券,但任何特定时间段内,股票能否提供这种超额回报并无保证,实际上股票可能在一段时间内亏损,就像 2022 年那样。许多投资者没有意愿投资于一种价格每日变动的资产,而这一价格形成过程,由这幅绝妙漫画生动呈现:

So, if equities outperform bonds why are investors so keen to hold bonds at the moment? The answer of course is that whilst equities may outperform bonds over long periods of time, there is no guarantee that equities will provide this superior return in any given period, and in fact they may lose value for periods of time, as they did in 2022. Many investors do not have the appetite to invest in an asset whose price is set daily by a process which was illustrated by this wonderful cartoon:

这不仅要掌握投资分析的本领,还得有铁一般的定力,才能无视股市里时不时的花样百出,赚取长期股权投资带来的回报。

7 It requires not only a grasp of investment analysis but also an iron constitution to ignore the periodic shenanigans of the stock market and reap the rewards of long-term equity investment.

我觉得如果不提两件标志着 2023 年的大事,似乎有些说不过去。

I thought it would be amiss not to mention two events which marked 2023.

第一件事,是人工智能的崛起。AI 如今已成为“七巨头”中多数公司崛起背后的驱动力,尤其是英伟达。该怎么看待这件事?我想谈几点观察。

The first event is the rise of Artificial Intelligence, or AI, as one of the driving forces behind the rise of most of the Magnificent Seven and especially Nvidia. What to make of it? I would offer a few observations.

首先,人工智能本身并非像今年股市对 AI 兴趣的飙升那样新鲜,这股热潮由微软投资 OpenAI 及其 ChatGPT 大语言模型(实际于 2022 年 11 月发布)所推动。早在 2011 年,IBM 就推出了名为 Watson 的 AI 模型,在美国问答节目《危险边缘!》中击败了两位人类冠军。谷歌(现为 Alphabet)则在 2014 年收购了 AI 开发商 DeepMind。

Firstly, AI is not quite as new as the rise in interest in AI in the stock market this year, driven by Microsoft’s investment in OpenAI and the adoption of its ChatGPT large language model (actually launched in November 2022). IBM launched an AI model called Watson which beat two human champions in the US quiz show Jeopardy! in 2011. Google (now Alphabet) acquired the AI developer DeepMind in 2014.

其次,股市从一开始,就像之前那幅漫画所表现的那样,已经认定自己能在人工智能领域识别出赢家,比如英伟达设计芯片供生成式人工智能模型运行,微软则是人工智能模型的提供者。如果它在现阶段就能做到这一点,依我看,这似乎是对传统的背离。回想过去大约半个世纪的一些重大技术发展及其早期领跑者:

Secondly, the stock market, in a fashion exemplified by the earlier cartoon, has decided at the outset that it can identify winners in AI in the form of Nvidia designing the chips on which the generative AI models will run and Microsoft as a provider of an AI model. If it can do so at this stage it would seem to me to be a break with tradition. Think back to some of the major technology developments of the past half century or so and the early leaders:

• 微芯片:英特尔

• 互联网服务提供商:美国在线

• 手机:诺基亚

• 搜索引擎:雅虎

• 智能手机:RIM(黑莓)

• 社交媒体:聚友网

• Microchips: Intel • Internet Service Providers: AOL • Mobile Phones: Nokia • Search Engines: Yahoo • Smartphones: Research In Motion (Blackberry) • Social Media: Myspace

如今他们何在?这段经历是否说明,我们能在人工智能领域一开始就预判出赢家?

再者,也许根本不会有赢家,无论在大语言模型的提供还是应用层面。大型科技公司正在开发和部署众多大语言模型,比如 Alphabet 的 Gemini、Meta 的 Llama 2(代表大语言模型)和微软的 ChatGPT,此外,Adobe、Intuit 和 Fortinet 等公司部署此类模型也令股市兴奋不已,这还只是我们关注的几家公司。竞争者从不缺乏。

人工智能的普及可能导致人人都拥有它,结果谁也没有优势。我想到一个类比(此处向沃伦·巴菲特致敬):就像一座足球场。当比赛变得精彩,前锋带球冲入禁区时,第二排的观众站起来想看得更清楚。这挡住了第三排观众的视线,他们也跟着站起来。很快所有观众都站着,但没人比之前看得更清楚,反而都不舒服了。

所以,我想我们会暂缓判断谁会(如果有的话)成为人工智能领域的赢家。

第二件值得一提的事是查理·芒格的去世。他是沃伦·巴菲特多年的商业伙伴,于去年 11 月离世,享年 99 岁。除了对那个老生常谈的退休问题再度引发讨论外,芒格的离世也促使评论人士不可避免地反复引用他的名言。然而,没有哪位评论员提到在我看来最能概括当今世界局势的那句芒格语录:“如果你对正在发生的事情一点都不困惑,那你其实并不理解它。”

最后,再次祝您新年快乐,感谢您一直以来对我们基金的支持。

Where are they now? Does this experience suggest that we can predict a winner in the area of AI at the outset? Moreover, maybe there won’t be a winner, either in the provision of large language models or their use. There are numerous large language models in development and deployment by the major tech companies: such as Alphabet’s Gemini, Meta’s Llama 2 (stands for Large Language Model) and Microsoft’s ChatGPT, as well as stock market excitement about the deployment of such models by Adobe, Intuit and Fortinet amongst just the companies that we follow. There is no shortage of contenders. The adoption of AI may lead to a situation where everyone has it, so no one has any advantage. The analogy I would offer (with acknowledgement to Warren Buffett) is a football stadium. As the 8 game becomes exciting and the striker runs into the penalty area with the ball, the second row of spectators stands up to get a better view. This blocks the view of those in the third row who follow suit. Pretty soon all the spectators are standing but no one has a better view than before, but they are all less comfortable. So, I think we will suspend judgement of who, if anyone, will emerge as a winner in AI. The second event worthy of mention is the passing of Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s long time business partner, who passed away in November at the age of 99. Apart from offering a perspective on the perennial question about my retirement, Mr Munger’s demise has led to the inevitable repetition of quotations from him by commentators. However, none of the commentators has alighted upon the Charlie Munger quote which in my view encapsulates the current state of world affairs: “If you’re not a little confused about what’s going on, you don’t understand it.” Finally, once more I wish you a happy New Year and thank you for your continued support for our Fund.

Yours sincerely,

Yours sincerely,

特里·史密斯

首席执行官

Fundsmith 律师事务所

Terry Smith CEO Fundsmith LLP

免责声明:基金史密斯股票基金的关键投资者信息文件及英文版招股说明书可通过基金史密斯网站获取,或应要求提供;投资者在购买该基金份额前,应查阅这些文件。过往业绩未必能预示未来表现。投资价值及其收益可能下跌亦可能上涨,并受汇率变动影响,您可能无法收回原始投资金额。基金史密斯有限责任合伙公司不提供投资建议,亦不对其产品的适用性作出任何推荐。本文档为金融推广材料,由基金史密斯有限责任合伙公司发布,该公司已获英国金融行为监管局授权并受其监管。

Disclaimer: A Key Investor Information Document and an English language prospectus for the Fundsmith Equity Fund are available via the Fundsmith website or on request and investors should consult these documents before purchasing shares in the fund. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise and be affected by changes in exchange rates, and you may not get back the amount of your original investment. Fundsmith LLP does not offer investment advice or make any recommendations regarding the suitability of its products. This document is a financial promotion and is communicated by Fundsmith LLP which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

数据来源:Fundsmith LLP、彭博社及纽约大学斯特恩商学院,除非另有说明。

Sources: Fundsmith LLP, Bloomberg and #NYU Stern School of Business, unless otherwise stated.

数据截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日,除非另有说明。

Data is as at 31st December 2023 unless otherwise stated.

投资组合换手率衡量基金交易活动的活跃程度,计算方法是:基金股票买入与卖出的总额,减去申购和赎回形成的净变动,再除以基金的平均净资产值。

Portfolio turnover is a measure of the fund's trading activity and has been calculated by taking the total share purchases and sales less total creations and liquidations divided by the average net asset value of the fund.

市盈率与自由现金流收益率均基于截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的过去十二个月数据,另有说明者除外。若过去十二个月期间出现净亏损,则不计算百分比变动。

P/E ratios and Free Cash Flow Yields are based on trailing twelve month data and as at 31st December 2023 unless otherwise stated. Percentage change is not calculated if the TTM period contains a net loss.

MSCI 世界指数是 MSCI 公司的专属财产。MSCI 公司不作出任何明示或暗示的保证或陈述,并且对其不承担任何责任。

MSCI World Index is the exclusive property of MSCI Inc. MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect

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不对本报告中的任何 MSCI 数据进行使用许可或担保。MSCI 数据不得进一步分发或用作其他指数、证券或最终产品的基础。本报告未经 MSCI 批准、审查或由其编制。全球行业分类标准(GICS)由 MSCI 和标准普尔开发,是其独家财产,“GICS®”是 MSCI 和标准普尔的服务标志。

9 to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indices or any securities or final products. This report is not approved, reviewed or produced by MSCI. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) was developed by and is the exclusive property of MSCI and Standard & Poor’s and ‘GICS®’ is a service mark of MSCI and Standard & Poor’s.

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