Fundsmith股票基金——致股东半年信2026
July 2026
July 2026
亲爱的投资者:
Dear Fellow Investor,
这封半年度信函比往常要长,因为我借此机会向各位说明我们在基金管理方式上的一些变动,涉及 Fundsmith 股票基金(以下简称“基金”)。
This half yearly letter is lengthier than usual as I am using it to inform you about some changes in the way we manage Fundsmith Equity Fund (‘Fund’).
不过,先看下表,它列出了本基金及同类基准在 2026 年上半年以及自成立以来的表现。
However, first the table below shows the performance of our Fund and other comparators during the first half of 2026 and since inception.
2026 年
1 月 1 日至 自成立至 2026 年 6 月 30 日
% 总回报
6 月 30 日 累计 年化
(至今)
Fundsmith 股票基金¹ -2.9 +592.6 +13.1
股票² +11.2 +530.9 +12.5
英国债券³ +0.7 +32.1 +1.8
现金⁴ +1.8 +25.7 +1.5
该基金的管理不参照任何基准;上述比较指标仅供参考。
¹ T 类累积份额,扣除费用,按英国时间中午定价,成立日期 2010 年 11 月 1 日,来源:彭博。
² MSCI 世界指数,英镑净回报,按美国时间收盘定价,来源:www.msci.com。
³ 彭博系列-E 英国政府 5-10 年期债券指数,来源:彭博。
⁴ 英镑利率,来源:彭博。
1st Jan Inception to 30th June 2026 to 30th % Total Return June Cumulative Annualised 2026 Fundsmith Equity Fund1 -2.9 +592.6 +13.1 Equities2 +11.2 +530.9 +12.5 UK Bonds3 +0.7 +32.1 +1.8 Cash4 +1.8 +25.7 +1.5 The Fund is not managed with reference to any benchmark; the above comparators are provided for information purposes only. 1 T Class Accumulation shares, net of fees priced at midday UK time, Inception, 1.11.2010, source: Bloomberg. 2 MSCI World Index, £ Net, priced at close of business US time, source: www.msci.com. 3 Bloomberg Series-E UK Govt 5-10 yr Bond Index, source: Bloomberg. 4 £ Interest Rate, source: Bloomberg.
我们基金上半年下跌 2.9%,跑赢最直观的参照标——MSCI 世界指数(英镑净收益)14.1 个百分点。我把那份业绩归因的常规分析挪到了本信附录,因为眼下有个更想先谈的话题:面对这样的业绩,我们打算怎么办。
Our Fund was down by 2.9% in the first six months of the year, 14.1 percentage points less than what is perhaps the most obvious comparator — the MSCI World Index (£ net). I have moved the usual analysis of attribution of that performance to an Appendix to this letter as there is another subject I wish to cover first, namely what we are going to do about this performance.
这一背景依然是市场被所谓的被动型或指数基金(其中大部分是 ETF)所主导,再加上围绕人工智能的繁荣,两者共同造就了一个由动能而非盈利能力、资本回报率和增长等基本面因素(即我们所关注的因素)主导的市场。
1 The backdrop to this continues to be a market which is dominated by so-called passive or index funds (of which the majority are ETFs) and the boom surrounding AI which have combined to produce a market dominated by momentum rather than any fundamental factors like profitability, returns on capital and growth — in other words the factors we focus on.
我已经写过这一现象的影响,但我要感谢西蒙·伊凡-库克,他在四月发表于 Substack 平台《财富自己》* 的一篇文章中,提出了更多见解,题为《被动投资的胜利!22 个思考与疑问》,副题为《被动投资已征服世界。哪里可能出错?很多地方。》
I have already written about the effect of this, but I am indebted to Simon Evan-Cook writing in a Substack called Wealth Yourself* in April for some further observations entitled ‘Victory for Passive! 22 thoughts and questions’, subtitled ‘Passive has conquered the world. What could possibly go wrong? Quite a lot.’
埃文-库克先生指出,转向被动投资的一个最初理由是:“很难跑赢市场,普通投资者会因为费用而失败。既然如此,何不通过低成本指数基金买入整个市场,既省时又省钱,还能因为省下的费用而获得略优于普通主动型基金经理的表现?”
Mr Evan-Cook points out that an original argument for switching to passive investment was that ‘it’s hard to beat the market, and the average investor will fail (because of charges). So why not save time and money by buying the whole market through a low-cost tracker, and get slightly better performance than the average active fund manager’ as a result of the fees saved?
近年来,指数基金以惊人优势跑赢主动管理型基金经理,这一理由却被轻易遗忘了。以英国为例,先锋集团的英国全股指数基金在过去五年里回报率达到 66%,远超英国股票基金平均仅 32% 的回报率。这被视为将更多资金从主动管理转向被动投资的理由,从而进一步强化了这一反馈循环。
In the recent stunning outperformance of active managers by index funds, this rationale has been conveniently forgotten. In the UK, for example, Vanguard’s UK All Share tracker has made 66% over the past five years, trouncing the average UK equity fund’s return of just 32%. This is seen as a reason to switch even more money from active to passive and so reinforce the feedback loop.
如果主动型基金平均收取 1% 的管理费,扣除费用后回报 32%,而指数理应等于这些主动型经理人的总和,那么跟踪指数基金难道不应该获得大约 37% 的回报吗?它怎么会达到 66%?
If the average active fund charges 1% and returned 32% after those charges, and the index is supposed to be the sum of those active managers, shouldn’t the tracker have made something like 37%? How did it make 66%?
引用伊万-库克先生的话:“如果你持有的是跟踪指数基金,这当然很好,但这让当初‘甘于平庸’的论点变得毫无意义。这也引出了一个问题:如果跟踪指数基金的表现能比一般主动型基金经理好 29%,那它为什么不能比他们差 29% 呢?”
To quote Mr Evan-Cook: ‘This is great if you’ve held the tracker, but it makes a nonsense of that original ‘settling-for-average’ argument. It also poses the question: If the tracker can perform 29% better than the average active manager, why can’t it perform 29% worse?’
一个相关的观察是,“被动基金开始看起来像主动基金”。
An associated observation is that ‘passive funds are starting to look like active funds’.
指数基金如今“主导了基金业绩排行榜。2018 年,前四分之一的位置被主动型‘优质成长’基金占满;2022 年,又被主动型‘高成长’基金占满;到了 2026 年,则被指数基金占满:五年期业绩排名前 20 的基金中,有 12 只是追踪指数型产品。”
Index funds now ‘dominate the fund performance tables. In 2018 the top quartile was filled with active ‘quality-growth’ funds, in 2022 it was filled with active ‘high-growth’ funds, and in 2026 it’s filled with index funds: 12 of the top 20 performers over five years are trackers.’
另外,指数基金如今持有的仓位比许多主动型基金经理还要集中。先锋集团旗下的富时 100 指数追踪基金,其一半资金仅集中于 10 只股票,且对银行、石油生产商和矿业公司持有相当大的“行业押注”。指数基金已不再是过去那种低风险、分散化的投资组合了。
2 Plus, index funds are taking more concentrated positions than many active managers. ‘Half of Vanguard’s FTSE 100 tracker is held in just 10 stocks, and it has significant ‘sector bets’ on banks, oil producers and mining companies. Index funds aren’t the low-risk, diversified portfolios they used to be.’
埃文-库克先生重点关注的是英国市场,但这些统计数据和观点对美国市场而言更为贴切,在那里,人工智能相关股票主导了指数和市场表现。截至今年五月底的五年间,美国市场以美元计算的总回报率达到 83%(价格回报率为 71%)。与此同时,投资于美国的开放式股票基金(有五年业绩记录的共 3107 只)的美元回报率为 59%。因此,指数基金平均跑赢主动型基金 24 个百分点。
Mr Evan-Cook focuses on the UK, but these statistics and arguments are even more pertinent for the US market where the AI plays dominate the indices and the market performance. The US market delivered a total return of 83% over the five years to the end of May in USD (price return was 71%). Meanwhile the average open-ended equity fund investing in the US (3,107 with 5 year records), returned 59% in USD. So index funds outperformed active funds on average by 24%.
此外,尽管指数基金的资产管理规模(AUM)现已超过 60%,但从交易量来看,主动型基金经理所占的比例比这一数字所暗示的还要小。根据芝加哥期权交易所全球市场(Cboe Global Markets)的数据,主动型基金在 20 世纪 90 年代曾占交易量的 80%,如今其交易份额已降至仅 10%。推动价格形成的交易活动,如今并非源于主动型基金的投资决策,而是由资金从主动型转向被动型以及被动型基金内部权重调整所产生的动量反馈循环所驱动。
Moreover, whilst AUM in index funds is now >60%, in terms of volume of trades, active fund managers are an even smaller minority than this implies. According to Cboe Global Markets, having been 80% of trades in the 1990s, active funds share of trades is now down to just 10%. The trading activity which drives prices is now driven not by active fund management decisions but by the momentum feedback loop of funds moving from active to passive and reweighting within passive funds.
我读到过一些评论,认为这种对正在发生之事的解释有误。然而,基于动量的投资表现一目了然,正如下方彭博图表所示:
I have read comments about these arguments which suggest that this explanation for what is happening is incorrect. However, the performance of momentum based investment is clear as this Bloomberg chart illustrates:
3
这一比例正处于 30 年来的高位,比 1999 年末互联网泡沫破裂前夕更为极端。随着主动型基金业绩持续恶化,越来越多的人弃它而去,形成了一种恶性循环。
3 It is at a 30 year high and more extreme than in late 1999 just before the Dotcom bubble burst. As active fund performance continues to worsen, more people abandon it, producing a pernicious feedback loop.
指数投资并非“真正”被动的又一例证,出现在 6 月 18 日《巴伦周刊》对 Dimensional Fund Advisors(现管理资产超过 1 万亿美元)联合创始人戴维·布斯的采访中。当被问及允许 SpaceX 比往常更快纳入指数的规则变更时(为配合 2026 年 6 月 SpaceX 的首次公开募股,主要指数放宽了纳入标准,纳斯达克 100 指数取消了 3 个月的新股 seasoning 期——即股票须交易满 3 个月方可纳入——以及 10% 的流通股要求,以便其在自由流通股不足 10% 的情况下仍能被纳入),布斯表示:“我认为你触及了一个更大的问题。假设你不喜欢主动管理,转向指数。那么,总有人在管理那个组合,那不是基金经理,而是指数提供商。如果指数提供商更改了指数,基金就不得不跟着改,所以指数基金实际上就是交易台。(指数提供商)是明智的人,但他们不是为我着想的受托人。他们为自己着想……这并不意味着他们不好,但人们需要认清现实。”
Yet another illustration that index investing is not truly ‘passive’ was given in an interview with David Booth, co-founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors (which now manages over $1trn of assets) published in Barron’s on 18th June. Asked about the rule changes allowing SpaceX to be included into indices more quickly than usual (to accommodate the June 2026 SpaceX IPO, major indices relaxed their inclusion criteria with the Nasdaq-100 eliminating its 3-month seasoning period — meaning the stock has to be traded for three months prior to inclusion — and its 10% float requirements so that it could be included despite having less than 10% freely tradeable) Booth said, ‘I think you’re hitting on a bigger problem. Say you don’t like active management and go to an index. Well, somebody’s managing that portfolio, which isn’t the fund manager, it’s the index provider. If the index provider changes the index, the fund has to change, so index funds are really trading desks. [Index providers] are sensible people, but they’re not fiduciaries looking out after me. They’re looking out after them… It doesn’t make them bad, but people need to realise what’s going on.’
我们确实看到,指数基金和其他金融创新一样,起初有充分的理由,但最终不可避免地被推向极端,直至造成严重后果。20 世纪 90 年代信用衍生品的发展以及随后 2007-08 年的金融危机,就是最近的例证。
What we are surely seeing is that index funds, like other financial innovations, start with a good rationale but inevitably end up being taken to extremes, ultimately with dire consequences. The development of credit derivatives in the 1990s and the subsequent Great Financial Crisis of 2007–08 are a recent illustration of this.
关于从主动型基金向指数基金的一头扎进式的转变会带来什么影响,我暂且不多言,至少目前点到为止。
With regard to what the headlong dash from active to index funds is doing I rest my case, for now at least.
在此需要说明的是,我们仍然坚定地认为,持有一组基本面特性优于市场指数的股票——即资本回报率更高、更具可持续性,并具备将部分盈利现金用于再投资的增长渠道——且估值合理,长期来看将带来超越市场的投资回报,尤其当考虑到市场波动因素时更是如此。
It is important to state at this point that we remain firmly of the view that owning a group of stocks which have better fundamental characteristics than the index (better and more defensible returns on capital employed plus a source of growth into which to deploy at least part of the cash generated) at a reasonable valuation will produce a superior investment return to the market over the long term, and particularly so if volatility is taken into account.
每天我们似乎都能看到被动投资兴起对市场波动性影响的例子。5 月 27 日星期三,数据库公司 Snowflake(SNOW US)以 600 亿美元市值收盘,而到了星期四开盘时,却变成了……
Every day we seem to be presented with examples of what the rise of passive investment is doing to the market in terms of volatility. On Wednesday 27th May Snowflake (SNOW US), a database company closed trading as a $60bn company and opened on Thursday as an
第 4 段:
820 亿美元的那家。到了那个周四,波动的接力棒传到了计算机硬件公司戴尔科技(DELL US)手中。其股票收盘时市值 2050 亿美元,周五开盘时市值 2730 亿美元。开盘上涨 33%,而此前自 3 月初以来,该股已经翻了一番。
4 $82bn one. On that Thursday, the baton of volatility was passed to Dell Technologies (DELL US), the computer hardware company. Its stock closed as a $205bn company and opened on Friday as a $273bn one. That opening increase of 33% is after the shares had already doubled since the beginning of March.
关于这件事,我想说几点看法——这几乎每天都能成为我们笔下的故事(希望上述一系列事件足以说明这一点):
I would make several observations about this which is a tale we could write about almost every day (as the sequence above hopefully serves to illustrate):
我不知道有任何一种基本的投资方法论能够帮助预测或捕捉这些波动。
1. I am not aware of any fundamental methodology of investment which could help to predict or capture these moves.
2. 此类举动确实部分源于这样一个事实:如今只有很小比例的交易由主动型基金执行,其经理原本可以心想“这举动太荒谬了,我要抛掉一些”,因为那些试图逆动量而行的投资策略会危及职业前途,而能扛住的这种经理寥寥无几。
2. Such moves are surely driven in part by the fact that such a small proportion of trades are now conducted by active funds whose managers could think ‘That move is ridiculous, I will sell some’ as few such managers can survive given that investment processes which attempt to fly in the face of momentum jeopardise one’s career.
3. 你或许认为,可以先切换至指数基金,坐享这波行情的红利,待事件导致行情逆转时再切换回来。然而,若市值高达 2000 亿美元的股票在牛市中日均波动达 33%,你完全可以合理推测,一旦形势反转,将会发生什么。那可能让 2000–03 年和 2007–08 年的低迷相形见绌。2007–08 年间,标普 500 指数在五个月内下跌了 57%。下一次,即便五天之内重演这一幕,我也不会感到意外。2000–03 年间,像亚马逊这样的最终赢家,也耗费了十年光阴才收复股价峰值。
3. You may take the view that you can switch into the index and reap the benefits of this momentum and then switch back if or when events cause this momentum to unwind. However, if $200bn market valuation stocks are moving 33% a day in a bull market, you can reasonably speculate about what’s going to happen if or when things reverse. It may make 2000–03 and 2007–08 look like a blip. In 2007–08, the S&P fell 57% in five months. Next time round, it would not surprise me if it accomplished this in five days. In 2000–03 it took even eventual winners like Amazon 10 years to recover their peak share price.
我们特别铭记一句赛车格言,这句话常被归功于里克·米尔斯或查尔斯·贾罗特这样的传奇人物,讲的是印第安纳波利斯 500 英里大奖赛:想要率先冲线,先得完赛。这句话强调,在 500 英里的赛程中,持久与可靠和速度同样关键。
We are particularly mindful of the motor racing maxim, frequently attributed to legends like Rick Mears or Charles Jarrott, relating to the Indianapolis 500 Race, that ‘In order to finish first, you must first finish’. This emphasizes that endurance and reliability are just as crucial as speed in the 500-mile race.
你也许会说(我们确实也这么说),这正是我们努力在做的事——专注于投资那些基本面和企业财务特征良好、估值至少合理或更优的公司。但眼下还有另一个因素在起作用——资金流向。我们运作的是开放式基金,你可以赎回资金,而且近年来赎回得越来越多,我们怀疑大部分是追随主动投资转向被动投资的潮流,也可能是转投那些自称比我们更懂何为优质公司的基金经理。他们也许是对的,也许只是披着价值投资外衣的动量投资者,在风向转变之前一切安好。不过,等我们的基金关闭之后,再证明被动投资或动量投资有何危险,就没什么意义了。
You might say (and we would indeed say) that is exactly what we are trying to do by focusing on investing in companies with good fundamental business and financial characteristics and at least reasonable valuations or better. However, there is another factor at work here — fund flows. We run open-ended funds, and you can and increasingly have been taking money out, we suspect mostly to join the exodus from active to passive, or possibly to invest in managers who profess that they understand quality better than we do. They may be right, or they may just be closet momentum investors, which will be fine until it isn’t. However, there will be little point being proved right 5 about the dangers of passive or momentum investment after our Fund has closed.
正是在这一背景下,我们正在对我们的基金管理流程进行一些调整。
It is against this background that we are implementing some adaption in our fund management process.
先让我强调什么不会改变。
But let me begin by stressing what will not change.
我们的投资信条是:追寻——
Our investment mantra is to seek to:
1. 买入优秀公司
1. Buy good companies
2. Don’t overpay
2. Don’t overpay
3. Do nothing
3. Do nothing
我们没有意图去投资其他任何东西,只投资那些特质优异的企业——它们的价值随时间复利增长应当超越市场平均水平,且估值合理,同时在市场动荡时能为我们的投资价值提供一定的基础支撑。
We have no intention of investing in anything other than good businesses whose characteristics are such that they should compound in value over time better than the market average and at reasonable valuations as well as providing some fundamental support for the value of our investment in the event of a market dislocation.
然而,有一点似乎很明确:我们策略的第三条腿,也就是最需要调整的部分,投资组合在上半年周转率达到了 51% 的高点,因为我们进行了重大的组合调整。不过,你们不应期望这种周转率会成为一种常态。
However, it seems clear that the third leg of our strategy which probably needs the most change and our portfolio turnover hit a high of 51% in the first half of this year as we made significant changes in the portfolio. However, you should not expect that level of turnover to become the norm.
在一个即便是大盘股,单日股价波动 33% 也屡见不鲜的市场里,买入并持有的策略只有在资金流不受约束时才能奏效,而我们恰恰受制于资金流。固守现有做法,很可能应了那句老话:市场保持非理性的时间,可能比我们维持经营的时间还长。因此,你们应当预期我们未来会更加积极操作。我依然预计我们的换手率及其成本会显著低于多数主动型基金,但很可能高于我们历史上的平均水平。
In a market in which share price moves of 33% per day for even large stocks are not uncommon a buy and hold strategy can only work if you are not subject to flows, and we are. Sticking to our current approach may well fall foul of the adage that the market can remain illogical longer than we can remain in business. You should therefore expect that we will be more active in future. I still expect our turnover and its cost to be significantly below that of most active funds, but it may well be higher than our historic average.
我们将在投资决策中更多考虑动量因素——无论是基本面动量还是股价动量。特别是,我们不会再像过去那样,热衷于在优质公司遭遇挫折时买入,这种传统技巧我们今后会谨慎得多。这一策略曾有过出色战绩,例如沃伦·巴菲特在沙拉油丑闻期间(各位可以查查这段历史)买入伯克希尔·哈撒韦所持的美国运通股份,再比如我们在鲍尔默先生卸任首席执行官前买入微软股票。但在当前动量主导的市场环境下,买入遭遇挫折的公司股票,就好比徒手去接那句俗话里说的下坠的刀。结果只能是手指被割得鲜血淋漓,因为指数动量的放大效应会让这些股票的下跌螺旋愈演愈烈。值得一提的是,巴菲特先生当年执行这一策略时,用的是自己掌控的封闭式基金,而非开放式基金。
We will take more account of momentum — both fundamental and share price — in our investment decisions. In particular, we will be much less willing to deploy the time-honoured technique of buying quality companies when they hit a glitch. This was used to good effect, for example, by Warren Buffett to buy Berkshire Hathaway’s stake in American Express during the salad oil scandal (look it up) and by us, for example, in buying Microsoft at the end of Mr Ballmer’s tenure as 6 CEO. But in the current momentum driven market buying shares in companies which have hit a glitch is like trying to catch the proverbial falling knife. All we are getting is cut fingers as their downward share price spiral is exacerbated by the index momentum enhancement effect. It is worth noting that Mr Buffett executed this strategy in a closed fund which he controlled not an open-ended fund.
我们并不想紧贴指数。你可以买指数基金,比我们或任何其他主动管理人都便宜得多,那还有什么意义?
我对这种被动投资主导的动量市场会以何种方式、何时终结毫无预见,只能说结局会很糟。或许人们会意识到,投入人工智能的巨额资金无法带来可观回报,也产生不了明确的赢家,从而让这轮行情脱轨。又或许,人工智能对其他行业的破坏性影响之大,足以刺破市场叙事,甚至那些被 AI 裁掉、目前正靠 401(k) 养老金缴款推动被动投资热潮的工人,一旦失业,就会令这股资金流和整个市场掉头向下。更可能的是,会出现我们无法预见的某种因素。毕竟,能预见的危机就不叫危机了。但我们确实知道,树不会长到天上去。
We have no desire to hug the index. You can buy index funds which are much cheaper than us or any other active manager, so what would be the point? I profess no insight into how or when this passive-led momentum market will end, other than to say badly. It may be that a realisation that the humungous investment in AI cannot produce an adequate return or any clear winner(s) will derail it. Or that the destructive effects of AI on other sectors may be such that it punctures the market narrative and/or even that layoffs amongst workers made redundant by AI who are currently fuelling the passive boom with their 401(k) pension fund contributions will send that flow and the market into reverse. More likely it is something which we cannot foresee. After all a crisis would not be a crisis if we could foresee it. But we do know that trees do not grow to the sky.
在截至 6 月 30 日的 6 个月里,我们执行了一系列交易,反映了我们调整策略以适应当前及预期市场状况的尝试:
During the 6 months ended 30th June we executed a series of trades which reflect this attempt to adapt our strategy to suit the current and expected market conditions:
我们开始增持了 AppLovin、GE Vernova、罗格朗、万事达卡、Netflix、Nextpower、Sage、TJX 公司、台积电、优步、Veeva 系统公司和百胜餐饮集团的股份。
We began accumulating stakes in AppLovin, GE Vernova, Legrand, Mastercard, Netflix, Nextpower, Sage, The TJX Companies, TSMC, Uber, Veeva Systems, and Yum! Brands.
我们已退出或开始退出以下持仓:阿特拉斯·科普柯、康乐保、依视路陆逊梯卡、财捷、LVMH 集团、梦龙冰淇淋、梅特勒-托利多、耐克、诺和诺德、奥的斯、联合利华、威科集团以及硕腾。
We exited or have started exiting: Atlas Copco, Coloplast, Essilor Luxottica, Intuit, LVMH, Magnum Ice Cream, Mettler-Toledo, Nike, Novo Nordisk, Otis, Unilever, Wolters Kluwer, and Zoetis.
每次卖出和买入的理由,都涵盖在本信附录 2 中。卖出往往源于多重复杂因素的交织,包括基本面动能不足、管理不善,以及纯粹的估值考量。
The rationale for each sale and purchase is covered in Appendix 2 to this letter. The sales were often driven by a complex mix of factors including lack of fundamental momentum, mismanagement and simple valuation.
我们很清楚,有些股票我们卖在了亏损价位,或是买入不久就卖出了。我们也清楚,有些正在买入的股票,之前就买卖过,或者在近些年本可以以低得多的价格买入。但这些股票的走势,并不会因为我们的持有与否而改变。
We are well aware that in some cases we have sold stocks at a loss and/or after purchasing them recently. We are also aware that some of the stocks we are buying have been bought and sold by us before or could have been purchased at much lower prices in recent years. But those stocks do not move on the basis of whether or not we own them.
7
最终投资组合的基本特征简况如下:
7 A quick snapshot of the fundamental characteristics of the resulting portfolio is as follows:
ROCE(已动用资本回报率) 31%
毛利率 62%
营业利润率 29%
现金转化率 92%
利息保障倍数 43.0 倍
自由现金流收益率 4.3%
来源:Fundsmith,截至 2026 年 6 月 30 日
ROCE 31% Gross margin 62% Operating margin 29% Cash conversion 92% Interest cover 43.0x FCF yield 4.3% Source: Fundsmith, as at 30th June 2026
但愿这能进一步印证我们的立场:我们并未放弃以合理或更优价格收购优质企业的策略,而是力求在这一策略上精益求精。
Hopefully this reinforces the suggestion that we have not abandoned our strategy of seeking to own good companies at fair or better valuations but have rather sought to refine it.
加权平均自由现金流(Free Cash Flow,FCF)收益率 4.3% 值得一提。据估算,标普 500 指数的自由现金流收益率已跌破 2%,主要原因是其权重最大的成分股——大型科技公司——的现金流被人工智能“军备竞赛”的投入所吞噬。这种相对估值差异通常令人乐观,但考虑到近期市场走势,也可能成为担忧之源。下图(涵盖罗素 2000 指数)显示,亏损企业——即通常所称的负收益公司——表现一直优于盈利企业,且这一趋势仍在持续。
The weighted average Free Cash Flow (‘FCF’) yield of 4.3% is worth mentioning. The S&P 500’s FCF yield is estimated to have fallen below 2% primarily due to the cash flows of its largest constituents — the major tech companies — having been absorbed by the spending on the AI ‘arms race’. Whilst this relative valuation would normally be cause for optimism, given recent market trends it might be a source of worry. The chart below (which covers the Russell 2000 Index) shows that companies with negative earnings — or losses as they are usually termed — have been outperforming those which are profitable and continue to do so.
盈利与亏损公司的相对表现
Relative Performance Profitable vs Unprofitable Companies
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
这让人联想到一部电影——《疯狂世界》(1963 年上映,主演斯宾塞·屈塞、西德·凯撒、米基·鲁尼、菲尔·西尔弗斯和特里-托马斯)。
The movie which this brings to mind is It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World (made in 1963, starring Spencer Tracy, Sid Caesar, Mickey Rooney, Phil Silvers and Terry-Thomas).
我们投资组合的估值相对较低,这对像我们这样注重公司基本面的人而言是一种安慰,而那些遵循动量策略的人则不然。此外,我们估计这些公司未来 3 至 5 年的现金流年增长率约为 14%。如果果真如此——其中许多公司的可预测性较高——它们要么会陷入更低的估值,要么股价上涨以反映这一增长。我们希望您届时仍与我们一同投资,见证这一切发生。我们将会如此。
Our portfolio’s relatively low valuation is a source of comfort to those like us who concern ourselves with the fundamentals of a company as opposed to those who follow a momentum strategy. 8 Moreover, we estimate that these companies will grow their cash flow by about 14% p.a. over the next 3-5 years. If so — and many of them are relatively predictable — they will either be even more lowly valued or their share prices will have risen to reflect this. We hope you are still invested with us to see that happen. We will be.
Yours sincerely,
Yours sincerely,
特里·史密斯
首席执行官
Fundsmith 律师事务所
Terry Smith CEO Fundsmith LLP
APPENDIX 1 - Attribution
APPENDIX 1 - Attribution
2026 年上半年,哪些业务给我们带来了好成绩?以下是业绩的五大正向贡献来源:
What did well for us in the first six months of 2026? Here are the five biggest positive contributors to performance:
| 股票 | 贡献 |
|---|---|
| Fortinet | +2.8% |
| 德州仪器 | +1.7% |
| 万豪国际 | +1.3% |
| Alphabet | +1.0% |
| 菲利普·莫里斯 | +0.7% |
来源:道富银行
Stock Attribution Fortinet +2.8% Texas Instruments +1.7% Marriott +1.3% Alphabet +1.0% Philip Morris +0.7% Source: State Street
Fortinet(飞塔)和德州仪器显然是科技公司,但两者都没有直接参与人工智能热潮。我们自成立之初便持有菲利普·莫里斯国际(Philip Morris)。
Fortinet and Texas Instruments are obviously tech companies but neither is directly involved in the AI phenomenon. We have held Philip Morris since inception.
期内对本基金业绩拖累最大的五只股票分别是:
The five biggest detractors from our Fund’s performance during the period were:
股票 | 归因
LVMH | -1.4%
Zoetis | -1.1%
IDEXX | -1.1%
微软 | -1.0%
康乐保 | -0.9%
来源:道富集团
Stock Attribution LVMH -1.4% Zoetis -1.1% IDEXX -1.1% Microsoft -1.0% Coloplast -0.9% Source: State Street
根据附录 2 中给出的原因,我们已出售了康乐保(Coloplast)、路威酩轩(LVMH)和硕腾(Zoetis)的持仓。基于估值方面的考虑,我们减持了爱德士(IDEXX)和微软(Microsoft)的股份。
9 Coloplast, LVMH and Zoetis have been sold for the reasons given in Appendix 2. We have reduced our stakes in IDEXX on valuation grounds and in Microsoft.
上半年投资组合换手率为 51.8%。主动交易(非因赎回或申购引起的交易)在本期间耗费 1140.4962 万英镑(占 0.084%)。T 类累积份额的持续收费率为 1.05%,加上全部交易成本后,总投资成本为 1.12%。
Our portfolio turnover in the first half was 51.8%. Voluntary dealing (dealing not caused by redemptions or subscriptions) cost £11,404,962 during the half year (0.084%). The Ongoing Charges Figure for the T Class Accumulation shares was 1.05% and with the cost of all dealing added, the Total Cost of Investment was 1.12%.
附录 2——销售与购买
APPENDIX 2 - Sales and Purchases
Sales
Sales
阿特拉斯·科普柯(Atlas Copco)——过去两年有机增长疲软,在我们看来,这并不足以证明不足 3% 的自由现金流收益率是合理的,该收益率源于过去一年股价的急剧上涨。
Atlas Copco – Organic growth has been anaemic over the last two years, which in our view does not justify a <3% FCF yield which has resulted from the shares rising sharply over the past year.
康乐保——有机增长率从长期平均的 8% 降至 6%。与此巧合的是,在并购方面也曾出现几起引人注目的失误。
Coloplast – Organic growth has fallen from a long term average of 8% to 6%. Not coincidentally there have also been a couple of high- profile screw-ups involving acquisitions.
依视路陆逊梯卡(EssilorLuxottica)——智能眼镜较低的利润率迫使公司放弃了长期盈利目标。随着可穿戴设备和智能眼镜的兴起,这家公司依然相当有吸引力,但这一细分领域竞争加剧已不可避免。
EssilorLuxottica – The lower margins on smart glasses forced the company to abandon its long-term profit targets. It is still a very interesting company with the rise in wearables and smart glasses, but increased competition in this segment is inevitable.
Intuit 公司——尽管我们最近才重新买回 Intuit 的股票,但我们一直对其应对 Mailchimp 收购失败的方式保持警觉,因为这正是我们当初卖出股份的原因。如今他们开始公布剔除 Mailchimp 后的业绩,这一做法既暴露了那次收购的糟糕程度,也令我们担忧他们仍处于否认状态之中。
Intuit – Although we only recently repurchased Intuit we were sensitive to the way in which they have reacted to the poor Mailchimp acquisition as this is why we sold the shares in the first place. The fact that they have now taken to giving results ex Mailchimp both shows how bad the acquisition was but also worries us about a continuing state of denial.
LVMH——中国这一关键市场似乎不太可能在房地产市场回暖之前复苏。家族继承计划也日益成为令人担忧的问题。
LVMH – The key China market seems unlikely to recover until the property market does. Family succession plans are also an increasing concern.
马格南冰淇淋公司(Magnum Ice Cream Co.)——这家公司规模太小,流动性不足,我们无法建仓一个有意义的仓位。
Magnum Ice Cream Co. – The company is too small and illiquid for us to build a meaningful position.
梅特勒-托利多——今年迄今的基础增长率仅为 1%,不足以支撑其历来享有的高估值。
Mettler-Toledo – Underlying growth so far this year is only 1%, which isn’t enough to justify its traditionally premium valuation.
耐克——显然,在疫情时期造成的损害之后,新任首席执行官埃利奥特·希尔要扭转局面,所需时间将比我们预期的更长。
Nike – It is clear that any turnaround from new CEO Elliott Hill after the damage done in the pandemic period will take longer than we’d
最初预期的情况有所不同,尤其是中国和匡威业务仍在持续拖累业绩。
10 initially expected, especially as China and Converse continue to be problems.
诺和诺德——把几十年来最重大的药物发现中的市场领先地位,变成了一场投资灾难。
Novo Nordisk – Parlayed a market leading position in the biggest drug discovery in decades into an investment disaster.
奥的斯——电梯维护和现代化改造业务的增长,速度还不够快,无法抵消中国新建项目带来的下滑。
Otis – The growth in maintenance and modernisation of lifts hasn’t been fast enough to offset the decline in new construction from China.
联合利华——海因·舒马赫被任命为首席执行官时,我们松了一口气,总算熬过了波尔曼和乔普时代的“觉醒”风气。他表示,在让所有业务达到应有的业绩水平,并以最佳竞争对手为标杆之前,无意涉足收购或剥离。我们对此做法表示赞赏。
Unilever – When Hein Schumacher was appointed as CEO we breathed a sigh of relief after the Poleman/Jope years of woke. He said he had no intention of indulging in acquisitions or divestments until he had got all the businesses producing the results they should be capable of benchmarked against the best of their competition. We applauded that approach.
18 个月后,他被解雇,首席财务官费尔南多·费尔南德斯被任命为首席执行官。我们认为费尔南德斯无论作为运营管理者还是首席财务官都非常能干。然而,他的任命很快伴随冰淇淋业务分拆为梦龙冰淇淋公司,据称是因为其独立的经销网络与联合利华其他业务不符。当时我们询问,在可预见的未来是否还有其他资产处置,得到的回答是没有了。
After 18 months he was fired and the CFO Fernando Fernandes was appointed as CEO. We thought Fernades was very capable both as an operating manager and a CFO. However, his appointment was swiftly followed by the spin out of the ice cream business as the Magnum Ice Cream Company allegedly because its separate distribution chain did not fit with the rest of Unilever. At the time we asked if that was all the disposals for the foreseeable future and were told it was.
随后,公司宣布计划将剩余的食品业务转让给味好美公司。
This was then followed by the announcement of the intention to transfer the remainder of the food business to McCormick.
除了这与我们被告知的情况以及我们认可海因·舒马赫做法的事实背道而驰之外,这一举动还处处透着董事会成员、激进投资者纳尔逊·佩尔茨的行事风格。从 20 世纪 80 年代起,我们就见识过纳尔逊的手段。我们并不认同靠公司运作就能解决根本问题的想法,也不欣赏董事会听从那些并非长期投资者的激进分子的意见。
Apart from the fact that this flies in the face of what we were told and what we liked about Hein Schumacher’s approach, it has all the hallmarks of Nelson Peltz, the activist investor who is on the board. We have seen Nelson in action back to the 1980s. We are not fans of the idea that corporate activity solves fundamental problems. Nor are we fans of boards who listen to activists who are not long-term investors.
此外,联合利华管理层虽能借此甩掉食品业务,但联合利华的股东仍会保有这块资产,只是改由味好美管理层来打理。我们曾持有味好美的股票,对其相当熟悉,并不确信他们能管好现有的业务,更别说一个规模大幅扩张后的摊子了。味好美的资本回报率(ROIC)持续徘徊在个位数。
Moreover, whilst Unilever management will be rid of the food business Unilever shareholders would still own it and it will be managed by the McCormick management. We know them well having owned the stock and we are not convinced they are good enough for the existing business let alone a massively enlarged one. McCormick has a ROIC which is consistently in single figures.
噢,还有这笔交易的结构决定了我们没法投票表决。
Oh, and the structure of the deal means we don’t get to vote on it.
威科集团——虽然我们仍然认为,这家企业受人工智能的影响程度不会像当前估值所暗示的那么深,但在其他受“SaaS 末日”影响的企业中,我们认为存在更好的价值,比如赛捷和 Veeva Systems,这两家公司的增长率更高,和/或估值更低。
Wolters Kluwer – While we still think this is a business that won’t be affected by AI as much as the current valuation suggests, we think there is better value in other businesses which have been affected by 11 the Saaspocalypse such as Sage and Veeva Systems, which have higher growth rates and/or lower valuations.
硕腾(Zoetis)——我们对这家公司的管理层不以为然。他们既未能有效应对针对其核心特许经营权推出的新仿制药竞争,甚至无法清晰地表达自己的观点。
Zoetis – we are unimpressed with management. They haven’t been able to respond effectively to new generics being launched in competition to its main franchises or even express themselves clearly.
Purchases
Purchases
Industrials:
Industrials:
GE 维罗纳(GE Vernova)——GE 维罗纳制造并维护燃气轮机和电网设备,为现代世界提供动力。其竞争护城河源于能源基础设施的规模和极高的转换成本:一旦其涡轮机安装完毕,客户就被锁定在高利润、抗通胀的服务合同中长达数十年。与电梯和自动扶梯不同,这些发电机无法由独立服务商维护,因为所有技术和材料都是专有的。GE 维罗纳的设备发电量约占全球总电量的三分之一。未来增长取决于对老化电网的升级,以承载从发电地到用电地的高压电力输送,以及 AI 数据中心日益增长的“表后”发电需求。这一增长也相当可预测,因为目前的订单积压量达 1630 亿美元(是 2025 年收入的 4 倍)。他们还是小型模块化核反应堆(SMR)的全球领导者。目前,他们在西方世界拥有唯一在建的商业化 SMR 项目(BWRX-300),首个部署在加拿大,预计 2030 年前完工。ROIC:约 20%,但正在快速上升;自由现金流收益率:2.6%。
GE Vernova – GE Vernova builds and services the gas turbines and electrical grid equipment that power the modern world. Its competitive ‘moat’ stems from the scale and high switching costs of energy infrastructure: once its turbines are installed, customers are locked into high-margin, inflation-protected service contracts for decades. Unlike elevators and escalators, these generators cannot be serviced by independent providers because all the technology and materials are proprietary. GE Vernova's equipment generates approximately a third of the world's total electricity. Future growth depends on upgrading ageing power grids to handle the high voltages needed to deliver power from where it is produced to where it is needed, and on increasingly ‘behind-the-meter’ power generation at AI data centres. That growth is also fairly predictable as the current order backlog is $163bn (4x 2025 revenues). They are also the global leader in small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs). They currently have the only commercial SMR project (BWRX-300) under construction in the Western world, with the first deployment in Canada expected to be finished by 2030. ROIC: ~20% but rising rapidly, FCF yield: 2.6%.
罗格朗(Legrand)——罗格朗是一家法国制造商,生产电气和数字建筑系统背后的物理基础设施。其竞争优势依赖于根深蒂固的分销网络,以及电工群体中深厚的品牌忠诚度——他们不愿因使用不熟悉的组件而拿自己的声誉冒险。它生产楼宇中的各种平常物品,从消防疏散标志到电源插座,再到数据中心承载线缆的母线槽。罗格朗在全球布线装置市场占据近 20% 的份额,意味着全球大约每 5 个电气开关和插座中就有 1 个出自该公司。增长机会在于对节能智能建筑的需求上升,以及数据中心专用配电系统的需求增长。ROIC:20% 出头;自由现金流收益率:4.4%。
Legrand – Legrand is a French manufacturer of the physical infrastructure behind electrical and digital building systems. Its competitive advantage relies on an entrenched distribution network and deep brand loyalty among electricians who refuse to risk their reputation on unfamiliar components. It makes mundane things in buildings, from fire escape signs to electrical sockets to the busways that carry cables in data centres. Legrand holds a nearly 20% global market share in wiring devices, meaning roughly 1 in 5 electrical switches and sockets globally are made by it. Growth opportunities lie in the rising demand for energy-efficient smart buildings and specialised power distribution systems for data centres. ROIC: low 20s, FCF yield: 4.4%.
Nextpower——Nextpower 制造机械系统和软件,使公用事业规模的太阳能电池板能够全天追踪太阳。其竞争护城河结合了灵活的、外包的制造模式(保持较低的固定成本)以及专有的追踪软件(一旦安装,转向竞争对手的系统就变得困难)。与传统固定倾角安装的太阳能板相比,Nextpower 的技术可将太阳能装置的发电量提高 20% 至 30%。其增长与全球可再生能源需求的上升直接挂钩,尤其是可在数据中心旁边建设的清洁能源发电。为进一步向数据中心领域扩张,Nextpower 于 2026 年 5 月以 3.65 亿美元收购了电池制造商 Prevalon Energy。ROIC:约 50%;自由现金流收益率:3.2%。
Nextpower – Nextpower manufactures mechanical systems and software that enable utility-scale solar panels to track the sun throughout the day. Its competitive ‘moat’ combines a flexible, outsourced manufacturing setup that keeps fixed costs low with proprietary tracking software that makes switching to a competitor's 12 system difficult once installed. Nextpower technology increases the energy yield of a solar installation by 20% to 30% compared to traditional panels bolted in a fixed position. Growth is directly tied to the growing global demand for renewable energy, especially clean energy generation that can be built next to data centres. To further expand into data centres, Nextpower acquired battery maker Prevalon Energy for $365m in May 2026. ROIC: ~50%, FCF yield: 3.2%.
优步(Uber)——优步运营着一个连接用户与网约车和外卖配送司机的平台。它依赖双边网络效应:司机越多意味着等待时间越短,从而吸引更多乘客,这使得平台具有极高的粘性,本地竞争对手难以撼动。如今,这些挑战者中的大多数(Karhoo、Sidecar、Juno、Fasten、Hailo 等)都已消失,而优步得以幸存,网络效应因此变得极具吸引力。这一点从公司的经营现金流中可以清楚看到:从 2019 年的负 43 亿美元,到 2021 年的负 4.45 亿美元(最后一年为负),再到 2023 年的 36 亿美元和 2025 年的超过 100 亿美元。优步的物流网络规模庞大,每天在全球协调约 4200 万次出行和配送订单。未来的增长机会包括向生鲜杂货和包裹配送扩张,并最终将自动驾驶汽车整合到车队中,从而大幅降低成本。有些人将自动驾驶汽车视为优步的威胁,但我们认为更可能的情况是,特斯拉、Waymo 等公司会利用优步的分销渠道和全球牌照来触达客户、最大化其资产利用率,而不是自己去申请牌照、开发应用程序、并让数千万人下载。ROIC:20% 出头;自由现金流收益率:7.4%。
Uber – Uber operates a platform that connects users with ride-hailing and food-delivery drivers. It relies on a two-sided network effect: more drivers mean shorter wait times, which attracts more riders, making the platform highly sticky and difficult for local competitors to disrupt. Now that most of these challengers (Karhoo, Sidecar, Juno, Fasten, Hailo, etc.) have disappeared and Uber has survived, the network effects become very attractive. This is shown in the company’s cash from operations, which went from -$4.3bn in 2019 to -$445m in 2021 (last year of negative) to $3.6bn in 2023 and over $10bn in 2025. Uber’s logistics network is massive, coordinating roughly 42m trips and delivery orders every single day globally. Future growth opportunities include expanding into grocery and package delivery and eventually integrating autonomous (self-driving) vehicles (‘AVs’) into their fleet to drastically lower costs. Some see AVs as a threat to Uber, but we think it is more likely that Tesla, Waymo, etc., will use Uber’s distribution and global licenses to reach customers and maximise their asset usage rather than having to get licenses, build an app, and get tens of millions of people to download. ROIC: mid- 20s, FCF yield: 7.4%.
Financials:
Financials:
万事达卡(Mastercard)——万事达卡运营着一个连接全球消费者、商户和银行的数字支付网络。它受益于经典的网络效应:使用该卡的消费者越多,商户就越被迫接受它,这使得新进入者难以复制。新的进入者需要与全球大多数金融机构谈判协议并整合其技术。虽然数字支付在发达国家似乎无处不在,但全球仍有约 14 亿成年人完全没有银行账户。未来的增长取决于将这些无银行账户人口纳入金融体系,将剩余的现金交易转变为数字支付,并扩展到企业对企业支付——这是一个远比 C2C 或 C2B 支付更大的市场。我们现在同时持有 Visa 和万事达卡,因为支付是少数几个无论 AI 如何发展我们都预期会增长的行业之一,而且万事达卡和 Visa 是同样优秀的企业。这使我们能够在不承担过度的个股风险或不违反 UCITS 集中度规则的情况下,实现对支付行业的超过 6% 敞口。此外,全球仍有 46% 的交易以现金完成,B2B 支付占全球支付总价值的 85%,两家公司都有充足的增长和复利空间。ROIC:>75%;自由现金流收益率:4.5%。
Mastercard – Mastercard operates a digital payment network connecting consumers, merchants, and banks worldwide. It benefits from a classic network effect: the more consumers use the card, the more merchants are forced to accept it, making it difficult for a new entrant to replicate. A new entrant would need to negotiate agreements and integrate its technology with the majority of global financial institutions. While digital payments feel ubiquitous in developed nations, roughly 1.4bn adults globally remain entirely unbanked. Future growth depends on bringing this unbanked population into the financial system, shifting remaining cash transactions to digital payments, and expanding into business-to- business payments, a far bigger market than C2C or C2B payments. We now own both Visa and Mastercard in the portfolio as payments is one of the few sectors that we expect to grow no matter what happens with AI, and Mastercard and Visa are equally good businesses. This gives us a way to achieve >6% exposure to payments without excessive stock-specific risk or breaching UCITS concentration rules. Also, with 46% of all global transactions still done 13 in cash and B2B payments 85% of the value of total global payments, there is plenty of room for two companies to grow and compound. ROIC: >75%, FCF yield: 4.5%.
Health Care:
Health Care:
Veeva Systems——Veeva 提供专为制药和生命科学行业设计的专业云软件。其软件追踪一款药物从临床试验到生产制造再到最终销售的全生命周期。例如,在新药临床试验期间,Veeva 的 Vault eTMF(电子试验主文件)用于维护数千份关键文件(试验方案、研究者资格、伦理委员会批准)。eTMF 是组织这些文件的数字保险库,使 FDA 或 EMA 可以随时进行审计,以确保试验安全合规。Veeva 的 Vault QMS(质量管理系统)用于生产车间。如果一批药物在生产过程中温度控制不当,Vault QMS 就是用来记录偏差、启动调查并跟踪 CAPA(纠正和预防措施)以确保问题不再发生的软件。
Veeva Systems – Veeva provides specialised cloud-based software designed specifically for the pharmaceutical and life sciences industries. Its software tracks the entire lifecycle of a drug from clinical trials through manufacturing and final sales. For example, during a clinical trial for a new drug, Veeva’s Vault eTMF (Electronic Trial Master File) is used to maintain the thousands of critical documents (trial protocols, investigator qualifications, ethics committee approvals). eTMF is the digital vault that organises these documents so the FDA or EMA can audit them at a moment's notice to ensure the trial is safe and compliant. Veeva’s Vault QMS (Quality Management System) is used on the manufacturing floor. If a batch of medication is manufactured at the wrong temperature, Vault QMS is the software used to log the deviation, launch an investigation, and track the CAPA (Corrective and Preventive Action) to ensure it doesn't happen again.
其竞争护城河建立在极高的转换成本之上:一旦制药公司整合 Veeva 来管理严格的临床试验和法规合规,更换它就既冒险又昂贵。制药公司很少放弃 Veeva,因为更换软件可能使临床试验或药物生产陷入停顿,其代价将远超任何更便宜供应商所能提供的节省。此外,转换到新系统需要投入大量昂贵的精力来通过严格监管审批,并在不破坏法律要求的审计追踪的情况下转移敏感数据。Veeva 在制药客户关系管理软件市场占据约 80% 的份额,意味着几乎整个行业都依赖其平台。增长动力来自向现有客户追加销售新软件模块,以及利用 AI 代理来管理药物试验的行政工作——这些工作目前非常劳动密集型。ROIC:表面数字约 15%,但这归因于巨额现金余额。剔除现金后远超 100%;自由现金流收益率:5.7%。
Its competitive ‘moat’ is built on extremely high switching costs: once a drug company integrates Veeva to manage strict clinical trials and regulatory compliance, it is risky and expensive to replace it. Pharmaceutical companies rarely switch from Veeva because replacing the software risks halting clinical trials or drug manufacturing, which would cost vastly more than any savings a cheaper vendor could offer. Additionally, moving to a new system requires a massive, expensive effort to pass strict regulatory approvals and transfer sensitive data without breaking legally required audit trails. Veeva holds roughly 80% of the market share in pharmaceutical customer relationship software, meaning almost the entire industry relies on its platform. Growth is fuelled by upselling new software modules to existing clients and by using AI agents to manage the administrative work of drug trials, which is currently very labour- intensive. ROIC: headline is ~15%, but that is due to a very large cash balance. Excluding cash it is well in excess of 100%; FCF yield: 5.7%.
Information Technology:
Information Technology:
AppLovin——AppLovin 提供软件和人工智能,帮助移动应用寻找新用户并出售广告空间。就是在你玩《糖果传奇》或类似移动游戏时,关卡之间弹出的那个你无法跳过的广告背后的公司。其护城河是 AXON,一个先进的 AI 推荐引擎。AXON 通过将正确的广告匹配给正确的用户,创造了强大的网络效应,为广告主带来更好的回报,为应用开发者带来更高的分成,这使得任何一方都很难离开。仅通过改进客户定向,AXON 就能在可预见的未来使 AppLovin 的收入每年增长 20%。AppLovin 的平台每天服务超过 10 亿活跃用户,其广告收入超过了 Snap、Pinterest、Reddit 和 X 的总和。未来的增长取决于将这项高利润的 AI 广告匹配技术从新移动游戏广告拓展到电子商务,并可能进军联网电视(CTV)广告市场。与 Alphabet 和 Meta 按广告曝光或点击的“眼球数”定价不同,AppLovin 从广告触发的消费金额中抽取一定比例,因此通过其广告销售的高价值商品(万豪酒店的一间客房或化妆品,对比 5 美元的手机游戏)能带来显著更多的收入。他们还在推出一个自助服务平台,供中小型企业购买广告空间。ROIC:>100%;自由现金流收益率:3.6%。
AppLovin – AppLovin provides software and artificial intelligence that assists mobile apps to find new users and sell advertising space. It is the company that shows you an advert between levels in Candy Crush or similar mobile games that you can't skip. Its ‘moat’ is AXON, an advanced AI recommendation engine. AXON creates a powerful network effect by matching the right ads to the right users, driving better returns for advertisers and higher payouts for app developers, which makes it very hard for either side to leave. AXON can increase 14 AppLovin’s revenues by 20% p.a. for the foreseeable future simply by improving customer targeting. AppLovin's platform serves over 1bn daily active users and generates advertising revenue that surpasses the combined totals of Snap, Pinterest, Reddit, and X. Future growth depends on expanding this highly profitable AI ad-matching technology beyond advertising new mobile games into e-commerce and potentially the Connected TV (CTV) advertising market. Unlike Alphabet and Meta, which price advertising based on the number of eyeballs who see or click the advert, AppLovin gets a percentage of the spend the advertisement triggers, so it gets significantly more revenue from higher-value items sold through its adverts (a room in a Marriott hotel or cosmetics vs a $5 mobile game). They are also launching a self-service platform for small to medium-sized businesses to buy advertising space. ROIC: >100%, FCF yield: 3.6%.
Sage——我们将仓位从 Intuit 调换到 Sage,后者是会计软件领域的另一主要运营商。Sage 对股权激励薪酬的依赖程度低得多,估值更低,也没有 Intuit 那种损害价值的并购记录。ROIC:18%;自由现金流收益率:6.0%。
Sage – We switched our position from Intuit into Sage, the other main operator in accounting software. Sage has much less reliance on share based compensation, a lower rating and does not have Intuit’s record of injurious acquisitions. ROIC: 18%, FCF yield: 6.0%.
台积电(TSMC)——台湾积体电路制造公司(TSMC)是全球最大的合同芯片制造商,为苹果、博通和英伟达等公司设计的半导体提供实体制造。其护城河在于制造最小芯片方面无与伦比的技术领先地位,并受到资本壁垒的保护——仅建造一座先进工厂就需耗资 200 亿美元。台积电制造了全球约 90% 的最先进半导体。未来增长源于全球对算力的需求,尤其是训练和运行 AI 模型所需的芯片。ROIC:33%;自由现金流收益率:2.7%。
TSMC – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the world’s largest contract chipmaker, physically manufacturing the semiconductors designed by companies like Apple, Broadcom and Nvidia. Its ‘moat’ is an unmatched technological lead in making the smallest chips, protected by the capital barrier of the $20bn it costs to build just one advanced factory. TSMC manufactures roughly 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors. Future growth stems from global demand for computing power, particularly the chips needed to train and run AI models. ROIC: 33%, FCF yield: 2.7%.
Consumer Discretionary:
Consumer Discretionary:
TJX 公司(The TJX Companies)——TJX 是折扣“低价”零售商 TJ Maxx(英国为 TK Maxx)和 Marshalls 的母公司。它拥有高度敏捷的供应链,以及与高端服装品牌数十年的合作关系,使其能够以大幅折扣购入过剩库存。TJX 依赖一个由 1400 多名专业买手组成的网络,从全球 21000 家不同的供应商采购,并为购物者创造了一种电子商务难以复制的不可预测的“寻宝”体验。增长来自实体店扩张和从传统百货公司手中夺取市场份额。ROIC:33%;自由现金流收益率:3.1%。
The TJX Companies – TJX is the parent company of discount ‘off- price’ retailers like TJ Maxx (TK Maxx in the UK) and Marshalls. It has a highly agile supply chain and decades-long relationships with premium clothing brands, which allow it to buy excess inventory at steep discounts. TJX relies on a network of over 1,400 specialised buyers sourcing from 21,000 different global vendors, and creates an unpredictable ‘treasure hunt’ experience for shoppers that e- commerce struggles to replicate. Growth comes from physical store expansion and taking market share from traditional department stores. ROIC: 33%, FCF yield: 3.1%.
百胜餐饮集团(Yum! Brands)——百胜餐饮集团是肯德基、塔可贝尔和必胜客等大型快餐连锁的母公司。不过,它终于要出售一直拖累整体业绩的必胜客了。它拥有全球品牌知名度、特许经营体系,以及在营销和食品采购方面的规模经济,这是独立餐厅无法匹敌的。其全球扩张速度是一个关键卖点:百胜餐饮集团平均每两个小时就在全球某个地方开出一家新餐厅,全年 365 天不间断。未来的增长取决于在新兴市场继续积极扩张特许经营,以及改进数字订餐和配送系统。此外,肯德基在美国(业绩一直不佳)和塔可贝尔在美国以外地区也有可观的近期机遇。ROIC:50%;自由现金流收益率:4.0%。
Yum! Brands – Yum! Brands is the parent company of major fast- food franchises, including KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut. However, it is finally selling Pizza Hut, which has been a significant drag on overall results. It has global brand recognition, franchising, and economies of scale in marketing and food purchasing, which independent 15 restaurants cannot match. The speed of its global expansion is a key selling point: Yum! Brands opens a new restaurant somewhere in the world roughly every two hours, 365 days a year. Future growth depends on continuing this aggressive franchise expansion in emerging markets and on improving the digital ordering and delivery systems. There are also significant near-term opportunities for KFC in the US, where it has been underperforming, and for Taco Bell outside the US. ROIC: 50%, FCF yield: 4.0%.
Communication Services:
Communication Services:
Netflix – Netflix 是订阅制流媒体娱乐的先驱。它拥有庞大的订阅用户基础,为其每年超过 170 亿美元的内容预算提供资金,规模较小的竞争对手根本无法在不亏损的情况下与之匹敌。Netflix 目前占美国所有电视屏幕观看时长的近 8%,超过任何一家传统广播电视网,同时也凸显了其增长潜力。未来增长将由新推出的广告订阅层级、打击密码共享、以及在新兴国际市场扩大本地内容所驱动。广告支持层级拥有 2.5 亿月活跃用户,其中 45% 在美国。2024 年停止密码共享后,Netflix 新增了 4100 万订阅用户(总用户为 3.25 亿)。他们正日益向体育直播迈进,包括圣诞节的 NFL 比赛和像迈克·泰森对阵杰克·保罗这样的“拳击”赛事。为什么是现在?当 Netflix 增长时,有很多竞争对手(Hulu、Discovery+、Tubi、Disney+、HBO Max 等),因此流媒体和内容制作的网络效应发挥得不太好,因为它必须在客户和内容两方面都竞争。如今,许多对手已经失败或用户流失,这凸显了 Netflix “护城河”的质量,也为那些用户回归 Netflix 提供了机会。ROIC:>30%,FCF 收益率:3.8%。
Netflix – Netflix is the pioneer of subscription-based streaming entertainment. It has a huge subscriber base which funds an annual content budget of over $17bn that smaller competitors simply cannot afford to match without losing money. Netflix now accounts for nearly 8% of all television screen time in the US, more than any single traditional broadcast network, but also underscoring its growth potential. Future growth will be driven by its newer advertising tier, cracking down on password sharing, and expanding local content in emerging international markets. The advert supported tier has 250m monthly active users, of whom 45% are in the US. After stopping password sharing in 2024, Netflix added 41m new subscribers (vs 325m total). They are increasingly moving toward live sports with NFL games on Christmas Day and ‘boxing’ matches like Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul. Why now? When Netflix was growing, there were many competitors (Hulu, Discovery+, Tubi, Disney+, HBO Max, etc.), so the network effects of streaming and content production did not work as well, as it had to compete for both customers and content. Now, many of these rivals have failed or are losing users, which highlights the quality of Netflix’s ‘moat’ but also presents an opportunity as those customers return to Netflix. ROIC: >30%, FCF yield: 3.8%.
免责声明:基金史密斯股票基金的关键投资者信息文件及英文版招股说明书可通过基金史密斯网站获取或按要求提供,投资者在购买基金份额前应查阅这些文件。过往业绩不一定预示未来表现。投资价值及其收益可能下跌也可能上涨,并受汇率变动影响,您可能无法收回原始投资金额。基金史密斯 LLP 不提供投资建议,也不就其产品的适用性作出任何推荐。本文件为金融推介材料,由基金史密斯 LLP 发布,该公司经英国金融行为监管局授权并受其监管。
Disclaimer: A Key Investor Information Document and an English language prospectus for the Fundsmith Equity Fund are available via the Fundsmith website or on request and investors should consult these documents before purchasing shares in the fund. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise and be affected by changes in exchange rates, and you may not get back the amount of your original investment. Fundsmith LLP does not offer investment advice or make any recommendations regarding the suitability of its products. This document is a financial promotion and is communicated by Fundsmith LLP which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
本文所表达的观点和意见为基金史密斯截至本文件发布之日的观点和意见,可能根据当前市场和经济状况而变化,且不会更新或补充。
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of Fundsmith as of the date hereof and are subject to change based on prevailing market and economic conditions and will not be updated or supplemented.
资料来源:基金史密斯 LLP 及彭博社,除非另有说明。
Sources: Fundsmith LLP, and Bloomberg unless otherwise stated.
`* https://substack.com/@simonevancook
`* https://substack.com/@simonevancook
数据截至 2026 年 6 月 30 日,除非另有说明。
Data is as at 30th June 2026 unless otherwise stated.
16
投资组合周转率衡量基金交易活动,计算方式为总股票买入和卖出减去总申购和赎回,再除以基金平均资产净值。
16 Portfolio turnover is a measure of the fund's trading activity and has been calculated by taking the total share purchases and sales less total creations and liquidations divided by the average net asset value of the fund.
市盈率和自由现金流收益率基于过去十二个月数据,且截至 2026 年 6 月 30 日,除非另有说明。若 TTM 期间包含净亏损,则不计算百分比变化。
P/E ratios and Free Cash Flow Yields are based on trailing twelve month data and as at 30th June 2026 unless otherwise stated. Percentage change is not calculated if the TTM period contains a net loss.
MSCI 世界指数是涵盖全球各行业股票的发达国家股市指数,鉴于基金的投资目标和政策,该指数是合理的比较基准。
The MSCI World Index is a developed world index of global equities across all sectors and, as such, is a fair comparison given the fund's investment objective and policy.
彭博英国政府债券 5-10 年期系列-B 指数显示的是投资于英国政府债务可能获得的收益。
The Bloomberg Series-E UK Govt 5-10 yr Bond Index shows what you might have earnt if you had invested in UK Government Debt.
英镑利率显示的是投资于现金可能获得的收益。
The £ Interest Rate shows what you might have earnt if you had invested in cash.
MSCI 世界指数是 MSCI 公司的独家财产。MSCI 对本文所载任何 MSCI 数据不作任何明示或暗示的保证或陈述,也不承担任何责任。MSCI 数据不得进一步分发或用作其他指数、任何证券或最终产品的基础。本报告未经 MSCI 批准、审阅或编制。全球行业分类标准(GICS)由 MSCI 和标准普尔开发,是两者的独家财产,“GICS®”是 MSCI 和标准普尔的服务商标。
MSCI World Index is the exclusive property of MSCI Inc. MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indices or any securities or final products. This report is not approved, reviewed or produced by MSCI. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) was developed by and is the exclusive property of MSCI and Standard & Poor’s and ‘GICS®’ is a service mark of MSCI and Standard & Poor’s.
17
17