构建更完善的金融体系
构建更好的金融体系 约翰·C·博格尔在普林斯顿大学“元老会”的演讲 2007 年 11 月 7 日,新泽西州普林斯顿 回到这片熟悉的故地总是让我无比愉悦,正是在这里,我接受了卓越的教育,并开启了自己漫长的金融职业生涯。在这 55 年里,我对我们金融体系的本质、结构以及效率(或者说,坦白讲,是低效率)形成了坚定的看法。在我 2005 年秋由耶鲁大学出版社出版的第五本书《资本主义的灵魂之战》中,我对这些问题进行了深入探讨。
Building a Better Financial System Remarks by John C. Bogle Founder and former chief executive, Vanguard To “The Old Guard” at Princeton University Princeton, NJ November 7, 2007 It’s always a delight to return to the old stomping ground where I received such a great education and a fabulous start to my long career in finance. During this 55-year period, I’ve developed a strong point of view regarding the nature, the structure, and the efficiency (or, truth told, the inefficiency) of our financial system. In my fifth book, The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism, published by Yale University Press in the autumn of 20051 I’ve explored these issues in depth.
1. 基本价值观 事实上,我关于投资的基本价值观,是在普林斯顿大学读本科的四年间形成的。就在这里,差不多整整 58 年前,我偶然翻到了 1949 年 12 月的《财富》杂志,第一次知道世上存在着一个叫“共同基金行业”的东西。看到文章里把这个行业描述为“规模虽小却争议不断”时,我立刻明白自己找到了毕业论文的题目——无论当时还是现在,论文都是文学士学位的必修要求。
1. Basic Values The fact is that the basic values I hold about investing were formed during my four years studying at Princeton University as an undergraduate. Here, almost exactly 58 years ago, I happened upon the December 1949 issue of Fortune magazine and learned for the first time that something called “the mutual fund industry” existed. When I saw the industry described in the article as “tiny but contentious,” I knew immediately that I had found the topic for my senior thesis, then as now, a requirement for the Bachelor of Arts degree.
在接下来的 18 个月里,我花了无数时间研究和撰写论文。关于这个领域,当时公开信息少得惊人,它由大约 130 只共同基金构成,资产总额仅 25 亿美元。哈佛企业的战略大师迈克尔·波特建议人们在考虑职业时“选一个好行业”,而我选择我的 *(本演讲所表达的观点并不一定代表先锋集团现任管理层立场。)
Over the next 18 months, I spent countless hours researching and writing my thesis. Remarkably little public information was available about this field, then consisting of some 130 mutual funds with assets aggregating just $2½ billion. Harvard’s corporate strategy guru Michael Porter advises people considering their careers to “pick a good industry,” and when I chose my *The opinions expressed in this speech do not necessarily represent the views of Vanguard’s present management.
我很高兴地报告,《资本主义灵魂之战》已被 Tiger Tomes 选为 2008 年 4 月普林斯顿校友教育项目的“本月之书”。欢迎自由参与!http://alumni.princeton.edu/main/education_travel/home_study_programs/book_club/ 这个选题我确实实践了。自那时起,基金业以几乎每年 16% 的速度增长,堪称美国增长最快的行业。如今共有 9000 只基金,总资产接近 12 万亿美元!
I’m delighted to report that Battle for the Soul of Capitalism has been selected by Tiger Tomes as its “book-of-the-month” for the Princeton Alumni Education Program in April 2008. Please feel free to participate! http://alumni.princeton.edu/main/education_travel/home_study_programs/book_club/ thesis topic I certainly did just that. With an annual growth rate of almost 16 percent since then, the fund industry just may have been the fastest growing business in America. Today, there are 9,000 funds, with total assets that approach $12 trillion!
今天读来,我的论文可能并不会让你觉得多出色,顶多是中规中矩,或许还有点稚嫩,但最重要的是——它毫不掩饰的理想主义。你现在就能读到它,因为六年前麦格劳-希尔把它收入了《约翰·博格论投资:头五十年》一书。(等上半个世纪,大概什么都能出版!)论文一页又一页,处处流露出我年轻时的理想主义,一遍又一遍地呼吁:共同基金股东的利益应当至高无上。
Read today, my thesis would probably impress you as no more than workmanlike, perhaps a bit callow, but above all, shamelessly idealistic. And you can read it, for six years ago it was published by McGraw-Hill as part of John Bogle on Investing: the First 50 Years. (If you wait a half-century, perhaps anything can be published!) On page after page of the thesis, my youthful idealism speaks out, calling again and again for the primacy of the interests of the mutual fund shareholder.
在论文开头,我开门见山:共同基金绝不可“以任何方式将股东利益从属于其他经济角色。它们首要的责任始终是对股东负责。”(这条重要建议,行业似乎充耳不闻;四年前纽约州总检察长埃利奥特·斯皮策揭露的那些令人作呕的择时交易丑闻就是明证。)紧接着,我又指出:“有迹象表明费用过高”,并且“未来行业增长的最大化,可以通过集中降低销售费用和管理费来实现。”(这条建议同样被当成了耳旁风!)
At the very opening of my thesis, I get right to the point: Mutual funds must not “in any way subordinate the interests of their shareholders to other economic roles. Their prime responsibility must always be to their shareholders.” (Important advice that the industry seems to have ignored; witness the disgusting market-timing scandals uncovered by New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer four years ago.) Shortly thereafter, “there is some indication that costs are too high,” and that “future industry growth can be maximized by concentration on a reduction of sales charges and management fees.” (My advice fell upon deaf ears there as well!)
在分析共同基金的表现后,我的结论是,“基金无法声称自己优于市场平均水平”,这或许预示着我将近四分之一世纪后创立全球首只指数共同基金的决定。论文稍后还指出,“基金对公司政策的影响……应当始终符合股东的最佳利益,而非基金经理的特殊利益。”(又一次,我的建议被弃之不顾,大多数基金被动的治理政策仍让股东蒙受损失。)
After analyzing mutual fund performance, I conclude that “funds can make no claim to superiority over the market averages,” perhaps an early harbinger of my decision to create, nearly a quarter-century later, the world’s first index mutual fund. Still later in the thesis, “fund influence on corporate policy . . . should always be in the best interest of shareholders, not the special interests of the fund’s managers.” (Again, my advice fell by the wayside, and shareholders remain ill-served by the passive governance policies of most funds.)
我的结论强有力地重申了我至今仍秉持的信念:“投资公司的主要职能是管理其投资组合。其他一切都是附属事务。”共同基金的职责就是服务——“服务个人与机构投资者的需求……以尽可能高效、诚实、经济的方式服务他们。”
My conclusion powerfully reaffirmed the ideals that I hold to this day: “The principal function of investment companies is the management of their investment portfolios. Everything else is incidental.” The role of the mutual fund is to serve—“to serve the needs of both individual and institutional investors . . . to serve them in the most efficient, honest, and economical way possible.”
一位初出茅庐的大四学生提出的这份免费建议,基本也被基金行业当成了耳旁风。但 1974 年先锋集团的创立——作为一家真正为所有者而非管理者利益服务的“成本价”运营的共同基金集团——是我试图践行自己近四分之一世纪前说过的话。今天,我向你们保证,我年轻时的理想主义依然完好无损。事实上,它不仅毫不掩饰地体现在先锋集团身上,也体现在我的《战斗》一书中——那本书表达了我对当今美国社会的关切、我对资本形成体系对我们经济增长和世界领导地位至关重要的信念,以及我对金融体系诸多问题的承认。
This gratuitous advice from a callow college senior was also largely ignored by the fund industry. But the creation of Vanguard in 1974 as a truly mutual mutual fund group—operated on an “at cost” basis for the benefit of its owners rather than its managers—was my attempt to walk the walk that I had talked the talk about nearly a quarter-century earlier. Today, I assure you that my youthful idealism remains intact. Indeed, it is shamelessly reflected not only in Vanguard but in my Battle book, an expression of my concern about our American society today, my conviction that our system of capital formation is essential to our economic growth and world leadership, and my acknowledgement that much has gone wrong in our financial system.
2. 一则寓言
那么,问题出在哪里?我先讲一则寓言,来描述这个系统真实的运作方式。这是我根据伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司董事长沃伦·巴菲特在 2005 年年报中讲述的一个故事改编的。它清晰地揭示了那个庞大而复杂的金融市场体系有多么愚蠢和适得其反。故事是这样的:从前……有一个富裕的家族,名叫戈特罗克斯家族。经过几代繁衍,家族里有了成千上万个兄弟姐妹、叔伯姑姨和表亲堂亲。他们拥有美国所有股票的 100%。每年,他们坐享投资的回报:那些成千上万家公司创造的全部盈利增长,以及它们派发的所有股息。每个家族成员的财富以同样的速度增长,一切和睦。几十年来,他们的投资不断复利,积累了巨额财富,因为戈特罗克斯家族玩的是赢家的游戏。
2. A Parable So what’s gone wrong? Let’s begin with a parable that describes how the system really works. It’s my version of a story told by Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., in the firm’s 2005 annual report, and it clarifies the foolishness and counterproductivity of our vast and complex financial market system. Here goes: Once upon a time . . . a wealthy family named the Gotrocks, grown over the generations to include thousand of brothers, sisters, aunts, uncles, and cousins, owned 100 percent of every stock in the United States. Each year, they reaped the rewards of investing: all the earnings growth that those thousands of corporations generated and all the dividends that they distributed. Each family member grew wealthier at the same pace, and all was harmonious. Their investment had compounded over the decades, creating enormous wealth, because the Gotrocks family was playing a winner’s game.
过了一阵子,来了几个嘴皮子利索的“帮忙者”,他们说服一些“聪明”的戈特洛克家族表亲,说自己能让这些人比其他亲戚赚到更大份额。这些帮忙者让表亲们把手上某些公司的股份卖给其他家族成员,再从他们那里买回另一些公司的股份。帮忙者负责操办这些交易,作为经纪人,他们从服务中收取佣金。于是,家族成员之间的股权就这样重新分配了一番。
But after a while, a few fast-talking Helpers arrive on the scene, and they persuade some “smart” Gotrocks cousins that they can earn a larger share than the other relatives. These Helpers convince the cousins to sell some of their shares in the companies to other family members, and to buy some shares of others from them in return. The Helpers handle the transactions, and as brokers, they receive commissions for their services. The ownership is thus rearranged among the family members.
然而,令这个家族意外的是,家族财富的增长速度开始放缓。原因何在?因为部分回报如今被“帮手们”消耗掉了,这个家族从美国工业每年烤出的丰盛馅饼中分得的份额——无论是分得的股息,还是企业留存再投资的利润——从一开始的 100% 开始缩水,原因很简单:部分回报被“帮手们”吃掉了。
To their surprise, however, the family wealth begins to grow at a slower pace. Why? Because some of the return is now consumed by the Helpers, and the family’s share of the generous pie that U.S. industry bakes each year—all those dividends paid, all those earnings reinvested in the business—100 percent at the outset, starts to decline, simply because some of the return is now consumed by the Helpers.
更糟糕的是,以前这个家族一直为自己的股息所得缴纳所得税;现在,部分成员还要为来回换股所实现的资本利得缴税,这进一步侵蚀了家族的总财富。
To make matters worse, while the family had always paid taxes on their dividends, some of the members are now also paying taxes on the capital gains they realize from their stock-swapping back and forth, further diminishing the family’s total wealth.
聪明的表亲们很快意识到,他们的计划实际上降低了家族财富的增长速度。他们认识到自己在选股上的尝试已经失败,于是得出结论:需要专业帮助,才能更好地为自己挑选正确的股票。所以他们雇用了选股专家——更多的帮手!——以获取优势。这些资金管理者为他们的服务收取费用。因此,一年后当家族评估其财富时,发现自己在蛋糕中的份额进一步缩水了。
The smart cousins quickly realize that their plan has actually diminished the rate of growth in the family’s wealth. They recognize that their foray into stock-picking has been a failure and conclude that they need professional assistance, the better to pick the right stocks for themselves. So they hire stock-picking experts—more Helpers!—to gain an advantage. These money managers charge a fee for their services. So when the family appraises its wealth a year later, it finds that its share of the pie has diminished even further.
雪上加霜的是,新来的经理人为了证明自己领这份薪水不亏,会拼命地倒腾家族股票,频繁交易不仅让第一帮帮手赚走了更多佣金,还让税单也跟着飙升。这样一来,原本家族能独享的全部股息和盈利蛋糕份额,又被进一步切走了。
To make matters still worse, the new managers feel compelled to earn their keep by trading the family’s stocks at frantic levels of activity, not only increasing the brokerage commissions paid to the first set of Helpers, but running up the tax bill as well. Now the family’s earlier 100 percent share of the dividend and earnings pie is further diminished.
“唉,我们自己挑股票不行,这条路走不通之后,我们挑那些能挑好股票的人也不行,”聪明的表亲们说,“那我们该怎么办?”前两次失败并没有让他们气馁,他们决定再雇更多的帮手。他们请来能找到的最好的投资顾问和理财规划师,让这些人为他们出谋划策,如何挑选出正确的管理人——然后这些人自然就能选出正确的股票。顾问们当然告诉他们,自己完全能做到这一点。“只要付给我们服务费,”这些新帮手向表亲们保证,“一切都会好起来的。”唉,这个家族拿到的蛋糕份额又一次缩水了。
“Well, we failed to pick good stocks for ourselves, and when that didn’t work, we also failed to pick managers who could do so,” the smart cousins say. “What shall we do?” Undeterred by their two previous failures, they decide to hire still more Helpers. They retain the best investment consultants and financial planners they can find to advise them on how to select the right managers, who will then surely pick the right stocks. The consultants, of course, tell them they can do exactly that. “Just pay us a fee for our services,” the new Helpers assure the cousins, “and all will be well.” Alas, the family’s share of the pie tumbles once again.
终于,全家人警觉起来,坐在一起回顾自家人中有人开始试图智取别人以来所发生的事情。“怎么会这样,”他们问道,“我们原本能分得百分之百的那块蛋糕——每年包含的所有股息和盈利——现在缩减到只剩百分之六十了?”家族中最有智慧的长者,一位老练的叔叔,轻声回答:“你们付给那些帮手的所有费用,以及你们缴纳的那些不必要的高额税款,都直接来自我们家族的总盈利和股息。马上回到原点。解雇所有的经纪人。解雇所有的资金经理。解雇所有的顾问。这样,无论企业美国每年为我们烘焙出多大的蛋糕,我们的家族都能重新获得百分之百的份额,年复一年。”
Alarmed at last, the family sits down together and takes stock of the events that have transpired since some of them began to try to outsmart the others. “How is it,” they ask, “that our original 100 percent share of the pie—made up each year of all those dividends and earnings—has dwindled to just 60 percent?” Their wisest member, a sage old uncle, softly responds: “All that money you’ve paid to those Helpers and all those unnecessary extra taxes you’re paying come directly out of our family’s total earnings and dividends. Go back to square one and do so immediately. Get rid of all your brokers. Get rid of all your money managers. Get rid of all your consultants. Then our family will again reap 100 percent of however large a pie that corporate America bakes for us, year after year.”
他们听从了那位老叔叔的明智建议,回归到最初被动但富有成效的策略,持有全美国企业的所有股票,然后静观其变……戈特洛克一家从此过上了幸福快乐的生活。
They followed the old uncle’s wise advice, returning to their original passive but productive strategy, holding all the stocks of corporate America, and standing pat . . . and the Gotrocks Family Lived Happily Ever After.
在艾萨克·牛顿爵士的三大运动定律之外,独树一帜的沃伦·巴菲特又添了第四条,他用这样一个寓言总结出教训:“就投资者整体而言,交易越频繁,回报越少。”这句看似隐晦的话虽然准确,但我想补充说明:这个寓言反映的是,在投资行业工作者与股票和债券投资者之间,存在着深刻的利益冲突。对从业人员来说,致富之道在于说服客户:“别光站着,做点什么。”但对作为整体的投资者/客户而言,致富之道却遵循相反的信条:“别做什么,就站着。”因为唯有如此,才能避免参与那场试图战胜市场的输家游戏。
Adding a fourth law to Sir Isaac Newton’s three laws of motion, the inimitable Warren Buffett puts the moral of his story this way: “For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases.” Accurate as that cryptic statement is, I would add that the parable reflects the profound conflict of interest between those who work in the investment business and those who invest in stocks and bonds. The way to wealth for those in the business is to persuade their clients, “Don’t just stand there. Do something.” But the way to wealth for their investor/ clients in the aggregate is to follow the opposite maxim: “Don’t do something. Just stand there.” For that is the only way to avoid playing the loser’s game of trying to beat the market.
那么,这个故事给我们的启示是:成功的投资就是持有全美国所有企业的股份,并获取我国——以及全世界的——企业所创造的巨额股息和盈利增长回报。投资者自身的交易越频繁,金融中介成本和税负就越重,整体企业所有者群体获得的净回报就越少。投资者群体承担的总体成本越低,他们获得的回报就越高。因此,要想获得企业长期创造的优异回报,明智的投资者会将其在金融体系中所承担的成本降到最低。这就是常识告诉我们的道理,而它正是真相。
The moral of the story, then, is that successful investing is about owning all of America’s businesses and reaping the huge rewards provided by the dividends and earnings growth of our nation’s—and, for that matter, our world’s—corporations. The higher the level of our own activity by investors, the greater the costs of financial intermediation and taxes, the smaller the net returns that our business owners as a group receive. The lower the costs that investors as a group incur, the higher rewards that they reap. So to realize the winning returns generated by businesses over the long term, the intelligent investor will minimize to the bare bones the costs of our financial system. That’s what common sense tells us, and it’s the truth.
3. 指数基金
乍一看,持有全美所有企业的一小份,从而获得股市慷慨给予的任何回报,可能会让人望而生畏。但事实上,这非常简单。当然,它的实现方式就是投资一只指数共同基金——就是我在本文开头提到的那只基金,也是我大学毕业论文中隐约提及的基金,并在 1975 年由先锋集团创立的第一只指数基金变为现实。
3. The Index Fund While on first impression it might seem intimidating to own a share in all of America’s businesses and thereby capture whatever returns our stock market is generous enough to deliver, in fact it is amazingly simple. It is, of course, by investing in an index mutual fund, that fund I mentioned early in these remarks, hinted at in my senior thesis and realized by Vanguard’s creation of the first index fund in 1975.
最早的是一只追踪标普 500 指数收益的基金(“第一指数投资信托”,即现在的先锋 500 指数基金),该指数中蓝筹股的市值约占美国股市总市值的 80%。随后,我们又推出了一只涵盖整个美国市场的基金(先锋全股票市场指数基金),如今还提供一只跟踪全球非美国股票的指数基金(先锋全球全市场国际指数基金)。将后两只基金按某种比例组合配置,投资者就可以轻松按比例持有全球权益证券的所有权。2 所有这些指数基金所做的,仅仅是获取其所跟踪股票指数的收益。它们只从这些总收益中扣除极低的成本(每年不到 0.2%)。例如,如果股市每年带来 8% 的回报,投资者大约能获得 7.8% 的收益。这 0.2% 的成本就是基金的运营费用率——即运营基金所需支出的金额。相比之下,普通共同基金的运营费用率大约为 1.4%。
The original creation was a fund (“First Index Investment Trust,” now Vanguard 500 Index Fund) that tracked the returns of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index, whose blue-chip components represent about 80 percent of the value of the U.S. stock market. Later, we created a fund that held 100 percent of the U.S. market (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund), and now also offer an index fund that holds the world’s non-U.S. stocks (Vanguard Total International Index Fund). In some combination of these last two funds, then, an investor can easily hold a pro rata share in the ownership of the world’s equity securities.2 All these index funds do is capture the returns of the stock market indexes they mirror. They deduct only trivial amounts of costs (less than 0.2 percent per year) from those gross returns. In a stock market that delivers 8 percent per year, for example, the investor would earn a return of about 7.8 percent. That 0.2 percent cost is represented by the fund’s expense ratio—the amount it costs to operate the fund. By way of contrast, the typical mutual fund has an expense ratio of about 1.4 percent.
但这家典型的主动管理型股票基金还额外承担了两项指数基金不需要的费用。被动管理的指数基金几乎不对组合中的股票进行换手,而普通股票基金的买卖交易频率惊人,目前每年换手率约为 100%,这相当于每年额外增加约 0.5% 至 1.0% 的隐性(但非常真实)成本。此外,虽然大多数指数基金无需支付销售手续费,但多数共同基金却要收取约 5% 的前端申购费,这又每年增加了 0.5% 至 1.0% 的成本(具体取决于投资者持有份额的时间长短)。那么,每年的总“全包”成本就是:指数基金 0.2%,普通股票基金约为 2% 至 3%。看起来差别不大,对吧?那好,我们来考虑一下它在比方说 50 年投资周期中的影响。1 万美元以 8% 的收益率投资,最终会增长到 46.9 万美元。而 1.3 万美元以 5.5% 的收益率(8% 减去 2.5% 成本)投资,最终只会增长到 13.9 万美元,还不到指数基金回报的 30%。
But this typical actively-managed equity fund also incurs two additional costs that the index fund does not entail. While the passively-managed index fund has virtually no turnover of the stocks in its portfolio, the average equity fund buys and sells stocks at an astonishing rate, currently about 100 percent per year, adding a hidden (but nevertheless very real) further cost of about 0.5 percent to 1.0 percent per year. Further, while most index funds are available without sales loads, most mutual funds carry a front-end load of about 5 percent, adding an annual cost of another 0.5 percent to 1.0 percent per year (depending on how long the investor holds his or her shares). Total annual “all-in” cost, then: Index fund, 0.2 percent, regular equity fund roughly 2 percent to 3 percent.3 Doesn’t seem like much, does it? Well consider its impact over say, a 50-year investment lifetime. $10,000 invested at a return of 8 percent would grow to a total of $469,000. On the other hand, $13,000 invested at 5 ½ percent (8 percent less a 2 ½ percent cost) would grow to just $139,000 or less than 30 percent of the return offered by the index fund.
指数基金也存在于美国及全球股市的其他板块中,同时覆盖各类应税及免税债券。
Index funds also exist for other sectors of the U.S. and global stock markets, as well as for a variety of taxable and tax-free bonds.
我还没提税的问题。指数基金只有在股票被移出指数时(这种情况相当罕见)才会卖出,因此税负效率极高。而主动管理型股票基金,由于其惊人的买卖频率,税负效率极低。两者之间的差异:指数基金每年最多可享有 1.5 个百分点的优势。
And I haven’t mentioned taxes. Index funds, which sell stocks only when they are removed from the index (a fairly rare occurrence), are highly tax-efficient. Managed equity funds, with their astonishing levels of buying and selling are highly tax-inefficient. The difference: an advantage of as much as a 1 ½ percentage point per year for the index fund.
正因如此,尽管年化成本“仅”扣除 2.5%,复利的奇迹却被成本复利的暴政所吞噬。在投资领域,时间并不会抚平一切创伤——它只会让伤口更深。就回报而言,时间是你的朋友;但就成本而言,时间是你的敌人。这个例子中的投资者,投入了 100% 的资本并承担了 100% 的风险,却只获得了不到市场回报 30% 的收益。而我们的金融中介体系,既未投入一分钱资本,也未承担任何风险,却实质上攫取了那 70% 的回报——这无疑是最大的一块蛋糕。长期持有低成本指数基金,能彻底消除金融中介带来的种种高昂危害,从而确保无论股市提供怎样的回报,你都能公平地获得自己该得的那一份。
So it is that through the deduction of a “mere” 2.5 percent in annual costs, the miracle of compounding returns is overwhelmed by the tyranny of compounding costs. For in the investment field, time doesn’t heal all wounds. It makes them worse. Where returns are concerned, time is your friend. But where costs are concerned, time is your enemy. The investor in this example, who put up 100 percent of the capital and assumed 100 percent of the risk, earned less than 30 percent of the market return. Our system of financial intermediation, which put up zero percent of the capital and assumed zero percent of the risk, essentially confiscated 70 percent of that return—surely the lion’s share. An investment in a low-cost index fund, held for the long term, eliminates all of the terribly harmful costs of financial intermediation, and thus guarantees that you’ll earn your fair share of whatever returns our stock market offers.
如果说我这是在向你们推销先锋集团的指数基金,那倒还真有那么点意思。但原因很简单:运作稳健的指数基金,凭借其极低的成本和长期以来精准跟踪各自指数的记录,是长期投资的理想方式。不过,我的话不足为信。指数基金已经得到了全美最受尊敬的金融专家们极其强有力的支持。沃伦·巴菲特、他的搭档查理·芒格、诺贝尔奖得主保罗·萨缪尔森、威廉·夏普和加里·贝克尔(普林斯顿 51 届)、耶鲁大学备受尊重的捐赠基金经理戴维·斯文森和哈佛大学的杰克·迈耶。数不清的金融学教授,包括伯顿·马尔基尔(普林斯顿 64 届)。记者、金融权威人士——名单几乎可以无限列下去。此外,规模高达 1400 亿美元的联邦节俭储蓄计划,主要也投资于指数基金,全国公私养老金计划中更是有数万亿美元投向指数基金。
If it sounds like I’m pushing Vanguard’s index funds on you, well, there’s something to that. But only because soundly-operated index funds are the ideal way to invest for the long-term, by reason of their rock-bottom costs and long record of tracking their respective indexes with a remarkable precision. But don’t take my word for it. The index fund has received incredibly strong endorsements from the most respected financial experts in the nation. Warren Buffett, his partner Charlie Munger, Nobel Laureates Paul Samuelson, William Sharpe, and Gary Becker (Princeton’51); respected endowment fund managers from Yale (David Swenson) and Harvard (Jack Meyer). Innumerable financial professors including Burton Malkiel (Princeton ’64). Journalists, financial authorities—the list is almost endless. What’s more, the giant $140 billion Federal Thrift Savings Plan is invested largely in index funds, along with trillions of dollars in the nation’s public and private pension plans.
不过,最有力的认可或许来自那些自始至终持有先锋 500 指数基金的投资者。让我举个具体例子:在 2006 年 9 月为庆祝该基金首次公开发行 30 周年而举办的一场晚宴上,该基金承销商的法律顾问报告说,他当初以每股 15 美元的发行价购买了 1000 股——总计投资 1.5 万美元。他自豪地宣布,当晚他持有的份额价值(包括多年来通过基金分红和派息再投资获得的股份)已达 46.1771 万美元。当然,那是一年前的情况。到昨天收盘时,这一价值已升至 54.3657 万美元。这个数字无需任何评论!
But perhaps the crowning endorsement comes from investors who have actually owned Vanguard 500 Index Fund during its entire history. Let me present a specific example: at a dinner held in September, 2006, celebrating the 30th anniversary of the fund’s initial public offering, the counsel for the fund’s underwriters reported that he had purchased 1,000 shares at the original offering price of $15.00 per share—a $15,000 investment. He proudly announced that the value of his holding that evening (including shares acquired through reinvestment of the fund’s dividends and distributions over the years) was $461,771. Of course that was a year ago. At the close of business yesterday, the value was $543,657. There’s a number that requires no comment!
4. 我们的金融经济体。如果你一直跟随着我的论证思路,你可能会想,指数基金表现如此出色的原因在于它没有落入我们金融体系整体缺陷的陷阱,然而我们的金融体系如今却主宰着实体经济——事实上,在过去两个世纪里,我们的国家已经从农业经济体,转型为制造业经济体,再转型为服务业经济体,而现在则成了一个以金融为主的经济体。但从定义上讲,我们的金融经济体是在削减生产性企业所创造的价值。再回想一下哥特洛克家族。投资美国企业是一场赢家游戏,但在扣除成本之前战胜股市是一场零和游戏。而一旦扣除中间费用之后,战胜市场——对我们所有人作为一个整体而言——就变成了一场输家游戏。
4. Our Financial Economy If you’ve been following my argument, you might well be thinking that the reason that the index fund does so well is that it doesn’t fall prey to the shortcomings of our financial system as a whole, yet our financial system now dominates over economies that fact that over the past two centuries, our nation has moved from being an agricultural economy, to a manufacturing economy, to a service economy, and now to a predominantly financial economy. But our financial economy, by definition, subtracts from the value created by our productive businesses. Think about the Gotrocks family again. While investing in American business is a winner’s game, beating the stock market before those costs is a zero-sum game. But after intermediation costs are deducted, beating the market—for all of us as a group—becomes a loser’s game.
是的,我们的金融体系拿走得越多,投资者赚到的就越少。然而,金融业恰恰是当今美国财富的聚集地,是本国最富有公民的摇篮。(如果你去年赚了不到 1.4 亿美元,那你还排不进薪酬最高的 25 位对冲基金经理的行列。)当我们把所有对冲基金收费、所有共同基金管理费和运营费用、所有付给券商经纪公司的佣金和财务顾问的服务费、所有并购和 IPO 的投资银行及法律费用,以及金融产品分销所涉及的庞大市场营销和广告开支加在一起时,我们谈的是每年大约 5800 亿美元。这笔钱从股票和债券市场慷慨给予投资者的回报中抽走,严重削弱了那些为退休而储蓄的普通美国人成功的概率。
Yes, the more that our financial system takes, the less our investors make. Yet the financial field is where the money is made in modern-day America, the breeding ground for the wealthiest of our citizens. (If you made less than $140 million dollars last year, you didn’t make enough to rank among the 25 highest-paid hedge fund managers.) When we add up all those hedge fund fees, all those mutual fund management fees and operating expenses; all those commissions to brokerage firms and fees to financial advisors; investment banking and legal fees for all those mergers and IPOs; and the enormous marketing and advertising expenses entailed in the distribution of financial products, we’re talking about some $580 billion dollars per year. That sum, extracted from whatever returns the stock and bond markets are generous enough to deliver to investors, seriously undermines the odds in favor of success for our citizens who are accumulating savings for retirement.
然而事实是,金融业已成为我国最大的企业利润来源,其利润甚至超过庞大的能源业和医疗保健业的利润总和,几乎达到制造业或信息技术业利润的三倍。4 二十五年前,金融业仅占标普 500 指数 500 家大型企业利润的 6% 左右。十年前,金融业的占比已升至 20%。而去年,金融业利润更是飙升至 27% 的历史最高点。若我们将金融附属企业的利润也计算在内——据记载,2006 年标普 500 指数的营业利润总额为 7870 亿美元。主要行业利润(单位:十亿美元)如下:金融业 2150 亿美元;能源业 1210 亿美元;医疗保健业 790 亿美元;制造业和信息技术业各 810 亿美元。
Yet the fact is that the finance sector has become by far our nation’s largest generator of corporate profits, larger even than the combined profits of our huge energy and health care sectors, and almost three times as much as either manufacturing or information technology.4 Twenty–five years ago, financials accounted for only about 6 percent of the earnings of the 500 giant corporations that compose the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index. Ten years ago, the financial sector share had risen to 20 percent. And last year, the financial sector profits had soared to an all-time high of 27 percent. If we add the earnings of the financial affiliates of our For the record, the 2006 operating earnings of the S&P 500 totaled $787 billion. The earnings of the major sectors (in billions) were: Financials $215; Energy $121; Health Care $79; Manufacturing and Technology each $81.
大型制造企业(例如通用电气金融,或者通用汽车和福特的汽车融资部门)也加入其中,金融业的盈利如今可能已超过标普 500 指数成分股总盈利的 33%。不过,考虑到近期债务担保凭证(CDO)的崩盘已经导致美国最大银行和最大券商 CEO 的职业生涯终结,这一占比今年可能会有所下降,尽管其规模依然庞大。
giant manufacturers (think General Electric Capital, for example, or the auto financing arms of General Motors and Ford) to this total, financial earnings now likely exceed 33 percent of the earnings of the S&P 500. While, given the recent collapse of collateralized debt obligations that have already led to the demise of the careers of CEO’s of our nation’s largest bank and largest brokerage firms, that share may decline this year as it remains enormous.
我们正在走向——至少看起来是这样——一个不再在国内制造任何东西的世界;我们只是在倒腾纸片,彼此来回交易股票和债券,并给我们的金融“荷官”支付一笔真正的财富。我们还在通过创造日益复杂的金融衍生品来增加更多成本,这些衍生品将巨大而深不可测的风险——眼下已开始浮现——植入我们的金融体系。“当企业沦为投机漩涡上的一个泡沫时,”70 年前英国伟大的经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯曾警告我们,后果可能不堪设想。“当一个国家的资本发展沦为赌场活动的副产品时,资本主义的活儿很可能就干不好了。”
We’re moving, or so it seems, to a world where we’re no longer making anything in this country; we’re merely trading pieces of paper, swapping stocks and bonds back and forth with one another, and paying our financial croupiers a veritable fortune. We’re also adding even more costs by creating ever more complex financial derivatives in which huge and unfathomable risks—now beginning to emerge—are being built into our financial system. “When enterprise becomes a mere bubble on a whirlpool of speculation,” as the great British economist John Maynard Keynes warned us 70 years ago, the consequences may be dire. “When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job of capitalism is likely to be ill-done.”
曾经,资产管理是一个服务于商业的行业,但如今华尔街和资金管理领域已经变成商业凌驾于专业之上的行当。哈佛商学院教授拉凯什·库拉纳说得对,他用这样一句话定义了真正专业人士的行为:“我将为社会创造价值,而不是从中攫取价值。”然而,资金管理从其定义来看,恰恰是从企业赚取的回报中攫取价值。
Once a profession in which business was subservient, the field of money management and Wall Street has become a business in which the profession is subservient. Harvard Business School Professor Rakesh Khurana was right when he defined the conduct of a true professional with these words: “I will create value for society, rather than extract it.” And yet money management, by definition, extracts value from the returns earned by our business enterprises.
金融经济领域还有另一层棘手的现实。虽然我这个简单的见解为理解股市回报提供了扎实的框架,但我没能充分考虑到,金融经济中的投机行为(情绪)会对实体经济(企业)的变化产生多大影响。不过,当我了解到伟大的美国经济学家海曼·明斯基(Hyman Minsky,1919–1996)的研究时,我意识到还存在另一种风险要素——这里显然是指不确定性。他的职业生涯主要致力于他所谓的“金融不稳定假说”。1974 年,明斯基观察到我们经济体系中一个将金融与经济联系起来的根本特征:“金融体系在稳健与脆弱之间摇摆,而这种……”
There’s another difficult reality here, for the financial economy. While my simple insight provides a solid framework for understanding stock market returns, however, I failed to consider the extent to which speculation in the financial economy (emotions) might influence changes in the business economy (enterprise). But when I learned of the work of the great American economist, Hyman Minsky (1919-1996), who dedicated his career largely to what he described as the “financial instability hypothesis,” I recognized that yet another element of risk—here, clearly, meaning uncertainty—existed.5 “In 1974, Minsky observed a fundamental characteristic of our economy that linked finance and economics: ‘The financial system swings between robustness and fragility, and these In the following four paragraphs, I quote investment adviser Frank K. Martin, CFA, writing in the 2006 annual report of his firm, Martin Capital Management.
波动是商业周期生成过程中不可或缺的组成部分。”此外,明斯基认为,主导性的金融结构是资本主义经济体行为的一个核心决定因素。同样,在以利润为驱动力的动力机制下,经济活动在特定制度结构的背景下运行,而该结构本身也会因追逐利润而发生变化。明斯基与经济学者约瑟夫·熊彼特的观点不谋而合,他强调:金融市场不仅会回应企业领袖和个人投资者以利润为驱动的需求,也会因金融机构自身的逐利企业家精神而发生变化。演进、变迁以及熊彼特式的企业家精神,在银行和金融领域表现得最为淋漓尽致;没有任何地方像这里一样,对利润的追求是如此清晰的变革驱动力。
swings are an integral part of the process that generates business cycles.’ Moreover, according to Minsky, the prevailing financial structure is a central determinant of the behavior of the capitalist economy. Likewise, the dynamism of profit-driven motives influence economic activity within the context of a given institutional structure in that the structure itself changes in response to profit seeking. Resonating with the ideas of economist Joseph A. Schumpeter, Minsky emphasized that: Financial markets will not only respond to profit-driven demands of business leaders and individual investors but also as a result of the profit-seeking entrepreneurialism of financial firms. Nowhere are evolution, change, and Schumpeterian entrepreneurship more evident than in banking and finance, and nowhere is the drive for profits more clearly the factor making for change.
金融体系在明斯基的理论中具有特殊意义,不仅因为金融对商业活动有强大的影响力,还因为这个体系特别开放——或者如有些人所说,特别容易——有创新,这在今天表现得很明显。明斯基接着说:“由于金融与工业发展处于共生关系中,金融的演变在经济动态模式中扮演着关键角色。”
“The financial system takes on special significance in Minsky’s theory, not only because finance exerts a strong influence on business activity, but also because this system is particularly open—or, as some might claim, prone—to innovation, as is abundantly evident today. Continues Minsky: ‘Since finance and industrial development are in a symbiotic relationship, financial evolution plays a crucial role in the dynamic patterns of the economy.’
资金管理人的存在理由,以及他们被问责的依据,就是让客户的投资价值最大化。因此,企业高管们越来越关注短期利润和自己公司的股票估值,也就不足为奇了。机构投资者扮演的角色日益壮大,为证券化贷款、结构化金融产品以及无数其他花哨的创新提供了现成的买家池,从而推动了金融体系的持续演进。
“The raison d’être for money managers, and basis by which they are held accountable, is the maximization of the value of the investments made by their clients. Not surprisingly, therefore, business executives became increasingly attuned to short-term profits and the stock-market valuation of their firm. The growing role of institutional investors fostered continued financial-system evolution by providing a ready pool of buyers of securitized loans, structured finance products, and myriad other exotic innovations.”
为了让这一点更透彻,不妨把投资看作两种不同的游戏。多伦多大学罗特曼管理学院院长罗杰·马丁这样描述它们。一种是“真实市场,大型上市公司在这里竞争。真实公司投入真实的资金,制造并销售真实的产品和服务,如果玩得有技巧,就能赚取真实的利润。这个游戏还需要真正的战略、决心和专长;真正的创新和真正的远见。”
To drive this point home, think of investing as consisting of two different games. Here’s how Roger Martin, dean of the Rotman School of Management of the University of Toronto, describes them. One is “the real market, where giant publicly held companies compete. Where real companies spend real money to make and sell real products and services, and, if they play with skill, earn real profits. This game also requires real strategy, determination, and expertise; real innovation and real foresight.”
与这场游戏松散关联的是另一场游戏:预期市场。在这里,“价格并非由销售额、利润率或利润这类真实事物决定。短期来看,股价只有在投资者预期上升时才会涨,而不一定是在销售额、利润率或利润上升时。”
Loosely linked to this game is another game, the expectations market. Here, “prices are not set by real things like sales margins or profits. In the short-term, stock prices go up only when the expectations of investors rise, not necessarily when sales, margins, or profits rise.”
针对这一关键区别,我还要补充一点:预期市场不仅源于活跃投资者的预期,也源于活跃投机者的预期——后者试图猜测这些投资者会预期什么,以及当每一条新信息进入市场时,他们会如何行动。预期市场关乎投机。真实市场关乎投资。唯一合乎逻辑的结论是:股市是一个巨大的干扰物,它让投资者聚焦于转瞬即逝且波动剧烈的投资预期,而不是真正重要的东西——企业业务所赚取回报的逐步累积。
To this crucial distinction, I would add that the expectations market is not only a product of the expectations of active investors but the expectations of active speculators, trying to guess what these investors will expect, and how they will act as each new bit of information finds its way into the marketplace. The expectations market is about speculation. The real market is about investing. The only logical conclusion: the stock market is a giant distraction that causes investors to focus on transitory and volatile investment expectations rather than on what is really important—the gradual accumulation of the returns earned by corporate business.
我给投资者的建议是:忽略金融市场中情绪带来的短期噪音,专注于企业自身长期的生产性经济基本面。莎士比亚那句“像白痴讲的故事,充满喧嚣与愤怒,却毫无意义”,用来形容股市那些每小时、每天——有时甚至每年或更久——无法解释的波动再合适不过了。投资成功之道,就是跳出股票价格的预期市场,把自己的命运押注在商业的实体市场上。
My advice to investors is to ignore the short-term noise of our emotions reflected in our financial markets and focus on the productive long-term economics of our corporate businesses. Shakespeare could have been describing the inexplicable hourly and daily—sometimes even yearly or longer—fluctuations in the stock market when he wrote, “[It is] like a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.” The way to investment success is to get out of the expectations market of stock prices and cast your lot with the real market of business.
只需记住本杰明·格雷厄姆——这位传奇投资人、《聪明的投资者》作者、沃伦·巴菲特的导师——所揭示的永恒区别。他一针见血地指出了投资的本质:“短期内,股票市场是一台投票机……(但)长期来看,它是一台称重机。”
Simply heed the timeless distinction made by Benjamin Graham, legendary investor, author of The Intelligent Investor, and mentor to Warren Buffett. He was right on the money when he put his finger on the essential reality of investing: “In the short run the stock market is a voting machine . . . (but) in the long run it is a weighing machine.”
5. 重建金融体系——一个框架 我曾描述过一个已经扩张到庞大且过度程度的金融体系。这一变化的根源很深,而治愈它所需的补救措施不会轻易找到。用记者威廉·普法夫的话来说,我们目睹的是“资本主义的一场病态变异”。经典的体系——所有者资本主义——曾建立在致力于服务公司所有者利益的基础上,最大化他们的资本投资回报。但一种新体系——管理者资本主义——发展起来,在这种体系中,“公司经营的目的变成了让管理者获利,与会计师及其他公司管理者相互勾结,即便不是共谋的话。”为什么会这样?“因为,”普法夫先生说道,“市场已经将公司所有权分散到如此程度,以至于不存在负责任的真正所有者。这在道德上是不可接受的,同时也是对资本主义本身的腐蚀。”
5. Rebuilding the Financial Systems – a Framework I’ve described a financial system that has grown to enormous and excessive proportions. The root causes of this change are deep, and the remedies that are required to cure it will not be easy to come by. What we have witnessed, in the words of journalist William Pfaff, is “a pathological mutation in capitalism.” The classic system—owners’ capitalism—had been based on a dedication to serving the interests of the corporation’s owners, maximizing the return on their capital investment. But a new system developed—managers’ capitalism—in which “the corporation came to be run to profit its managers, in complicity if not conspiracy with accountants and the managers of other corporations.” Why did it happen? “Because,” in Mr. Pfaff’s words, “the markets had so diffused corporate ownership that no responsible owner exists. This is morally unacceptable, but also a corruption of capitalism itself.”
当大多数所有者要么不愿、要么不肯、要么无力捍卫自身权利,当公司董事们忘了自己代表的是谁,由此产生的权力真空很快就会由公司管理层来填补——这些人活生生地证明了斯宾诺莎说的“自然厌恶真空”是对的。当首席执行官不仅成为企业老板,还成为董事会的老板,抹去了常识告诉我们应该在管理与治理之间存在的“明晰界线”时,就很难产生什么好结果。说得更直白些,用我去年春天读到的一句引语来说:“当拥有强势的管理者、软弱的董事和被动的所有者时,掠夺开始就毫不意外了。”
When most owners either don’t or won’t or can’t stand up for their rights, and when corporate directors lose sight of whom they represent, the resulting power vacuum quickly gets filled by corporate managers, living proof that Spinoza was right when he told us, “nature abhors a vacuum.” Little good is likely to result when the CEO becomes not only boss of the business but boss of the board, erasing the “bright line” that common sense tells us ought to exist between management and governance. Put more harshly, in a quote that I came across last spring, “when we have strong managers, weak directors, and passive owners, don’t be surprised when the looting begins.”
这一有害变化背后有两股主要推动力:第一,“股东社会”——在美国,公司股份几乎全部由直接股东持有——逐渐丧失了其影响力和效力。自 1950 年以来,个人投资者直接持有的美国股票比例从 92% 骤降至 30%,而机构投资者间接持有的比例则从 8% 飙升至 70%。我们的旧有股东社会如今已不复存在,而且不可能再回来。取而代之的是一个全新的“代理人社会”,在这个社会中,我们的金融中介机构实际上掌控着美国企业的控制权。
There were two major forces behind this baneful change: First, the “ownership society”—in which the shares of our corporations were held almost entirely by direct stockholders—gradually lost its heft and its effectiveness. Since 1950, direct ownership of U.S. stocks by individual investors has plummeted from 92 percent to 30 percent, while indirect ownership by institutional investors has soared from 8 percent to 70 percent. Our old ownership society is now gone, and it is not going to return. In its place we have a new “agency society” in which our financial intermediaries now hold effective control of American business.
但这些新型代理人并未按照代理人应有的方式行事。我们的企业、养老金经理和共同基金经理,往往将自己的经济利益置于那些他们负有受托责任、必须代表其利益的主体——即那些拥有共同基金、作为养老金计划受益人的 1 亿个家庭——的利益之上。正如亚当·斯密在 200 多年前精辟指出的那样:“管理他人钱财的人,(很少)会像管理自己的钱财那样……以同样的焦虑和警觉去照管它……他们很容易给自己开脱。疏忽和挥霍必然永远盛行。”于是,在当今的美国,公司董事和资金管理者的疏忽与挥霍确实大行其道。
But these new agents haven’t behaved as agents should. Our corporations, pension managers, and mutual fund managers have too often put their own financial interests ahead of the interests of the principals whom they are duty-bound to represent, those 100-million families who are the owners of our mutual funds and the beneficiaries of our pension plans. As Adam Smith wisely put it 200-plus years ago, “managers of other people’s money (rarely) watch over it with the same anxious vigilance with which . . . they watch over their own . . . they very easily give themselves a dispensation. Negligence and profusion must always prevail.” And so negligence and profusion among our corporate directors and money managers have prevailed in present-day America.
资本主义体系价值观遭受侵蚀的第二个原因在于,我们这位新型的投资者/代理人不仅看似无视了那些他们理应为其服务的投资人委托人的利益,甚至还忘记了自己秉持的投资原则。在二十世纪后期,机构投资策略的主导焦点从长期投资的智慧转向了短期投机的愚昧。进入近期时代,我们步入了预期投资时代,公司盈利的预期增长——尤其是盈利指引及其后不择手段地达成目标——成了投资者的信条。至于那些报告的盈利,往往是服务于公司管理层和华尔街证券分析师短期利益的财务工程产物,这一点早已无人顾及。
The second reason for the debasement of the values of our capitalistic system is that our new investor/agents not only seemed to ignore the interests of the investor principals whom they are duty-bound to serve, but they also seemed to forget their own investment principles. In the latter part of the twentieth century, the predominant focus of institutional investment strategy turned from the wisdom of long-term investing to the folly of short-term speculation. During the recent era, we entered the age of expectations investing, where projected growth in corporate earnings—especially earnings guidance and its subsequent achievement, by fair means or foul— became the watchword of investors. Never mind that the reported earnings were too often a product of financial engineering that served the short-term interest of corporate managers and Wall Street security analysts alike.
但当长期持股人变成短期租股客,当股票价格的瞬间精确性凌驾于企业本身内在价值的永恒模糊性之上时,公司治理的关注便首当其冲沦为牺牲品。公司董事唯一最重要的工作,就是确保管理层为股东创造价值;然而,当这一目标沦为次要时,我们那些新晋代理人/投资者似乎毫不在意。虽然这些机构代理如今掌握着美国企业界的绝对投票控制权,我们却只从这些资金管理人口中听到沉默之声。这不仅因为他们更可能是短期投机者而非长期投资者,还因为他们管理着其所持股票企业的养老金与储蓄计划,因此在涉及有争议的委托投票议题时,面临着严重的利益冲突。这种冲突无处不在,因为正如人们所说,资金管理人只有两类他们不愿得罪的客户:现有的,和潜在的。
But when long-term owners of stocks become short-term renters of stocks, and when the momentary precision of the price of the stock takes precedence over the eternal vagueness of the intrinsic value of the corporation itself, concern about corporate governance is the first casualty. The single most important job of the corporate director is to assure that management is creating value for shareholders; yet our new agent/investors seemed not to care when that goal became secondary. While these institutional agents now hold absolute voting control over corporate America, all we hear from these money managers is the sound of silence. Not only because they are more likely to be short-term speculators than long-term investors, but also because they are managing the pension and thrift plans of the corporations whose stocks they hold, and thus face a serious conflict of interest when controversial proxy issues are concerned. This conflict is pervasive, for, as it is said, money managers have only two types of client they don’t want to offend: actual, and potential.
如果没有在当今一些最受敬重的投资界人士那里,对我的上述对当代资本主义的严厉指控找到认同,我或许会对自己论点不那么有把握。但商界和投资界久负盛名的领袖们已经站出来直言不讳,带来了积极变化。例如,想想杰出的金融家、经济学家和历史学家亨利·考夫曼。在他 2000 年那本了不起的著作《论货币与市场》中,他这样写道:“不受约束的金融企业家精神可能变得过度——而且具有破坏性——导致严重滥用和践踏金融体系的基本法则和道德。这种滥用行为削弱一国的金融结构,破坏公众对金融界的信心……只有通过改善企业家创新与更传统价值观——审慎、稳定、安全、稳健——之间的平衡,我们才能提高经济体系中的收益成本比……当金融海盗和疏忽的高管越界时,损害会降临到所有市场参与者身上……而金融受托责任的概念常常在混乱中丢失。”
Had I not found agreement with this harsh indictment of the present-day capitalism from some of the most respected names in investing, I might be a little less certain of my ground. But leaders of great repute in the business community and the investment community have stood up and spoken out, making a positive difference. Consider, for example, the eminent financier, economist, and historian Henry Kaufman. In his remarkable 2000 book On Money and Markets, here’s what he said: “Unfettered financial entrepreneurship can become excessive—and damaging as well—leading to serious abuses and the trampling of the basic laws and morals of the financial system. Such abuses weaken a nation’s financial structure and undermine public confidence in the financial community . . . Only by improving the balance between entrepreneurial innovation and more traditional values—prudence, stability, safety, soundness—can we improve the ratio of benefits to costs in our economic system . . . When financial buccaneers and negligent executives step over the line, the damage is inflicted on all market participants . . . and the notion of financial trusteeship too frequently lost in the shuffle.”
考夫曼博士并非孤例。菲利克斯·罗哈廷,拉扎德投资银行前董事总经理、广受尊敬的华尔街智者之一,也是另一位站出来发声的人。几年前他在《华尔街日报》上这样写道:“我是美国人,是资本主义者,相信市场资本主义是人类有史以来最好的经济制度。但它必须公平,必须受监管,必须合乎道德。过去几年表明,当金融资本主义和现代技术被滥用为赤裸裸的贪婪服务时,过度行为就可能出现。只有资本家才能杀死资本主义,但我们的体系无法承受我们最近目睹的那种更多滥用行为,也无法承受我们今天看到的金融和社会两极分化。”
Dr. Kaufman is not alone. Felix Rohatyn, the widely-respected former managing director of Lazard Freres, is another of the wise men of Wall Street who have spoken out. Here’s what he wrote in The Wall Street Journal a few years ago: “I am an American and a capitalist and believe that market capitalism is the best economic system ever invented. But it must be fair, it must be regulated, and it must be ethical. The last few years have shown that excesses can come about when finance capitalism and modern technology are abused in the service of naked greed. Only capitalists can kill capitalism, but our system cannot stand much more abuse of the type we have witnessed recently, nor can it stand much more of the financial and social polarization we are seeing today.”
事实上,在一些重要方面,资本主义的“看不见的手”辜负了我们。以下是亚当·斯密在《国富论》中那些耳熟能详的句子。
The fact is that, in some important respects, the Invisible Hand of capitalism has failed us. Here are the familiar sentences that Adam Smith wrote in The Wealth of Nations.
“我们期望的晚餐并非来自屠夫、酿酒师或面包师的仁慈,而是来自他们对自身利益的关注。通过以使其产出具有最大价值的方式指导(我们自己的)产业,(我们)只意图自己的利益,(我们)被一只看不见的手引导去促进一个并非我们本意的结果。”
“It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the baker, or the brewer that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own self-interest. By directing (our own) industry in such a manner as its produce may be of the greatest value, (we) intend only our own gain, and (we are) led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of (our) intention.”
那么该怎么办?尽管恢复信任、忠诚和诚实这些非经济但至关重要的价值观的追求绝非胆小者可为,但理清我们需遵循的道路并不难。如果每一位个人投资者——不仅是那些直接持有股票的小众,还有通过共同基金持有股票的数百万人——只关注自身的经济利益,那么在恢复资本主义正在消失的价值观方面,就能取得巨大进步。
So what’s to be done? While the quest to restore those non-economic but transcendently vital values of trust, loyalty and honesty is hardly for the faint of heart, it’s easy to conceptualize the path we need to follow. If each individual investor out there—not only that minority who hold their stocks directly, but those millions who hold their stocks through mutual funds—would only look after their own economic self-interest, then great progress would be made in restoring the vanishing values of capitalism.
我认为,亚当·斯密的“看不见的手”在这里实际上会有所帮助。因为只要聪明的投资者远离短期投机这种代价高昂的愚蠢行为,转而拥抱长期投资的无价财富(且是无价的智慧!)——既放弃那些背叛合理投资策略的情绪,也抛弃那些将战胜市场变成失败者游戏的费用——他们就能实现财务目标。当他们这样做时——而且他们会这样做——我们的金融中介机构将被迫做出回应,专注于对企业的长期投资,而非股票的短期投机。
Here, I think, Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand would in fact be helpful. For if intelligent investors would only move away from the costly folly of short-term speculation to the priceless (and price-less!) wisdom of long-term investing—abandoning both the emotions that betray sound investment strategy and the expenses that turn beating the market into a loser’s game—will they achieve their financial goals. When they do—and they will—our financial intermediaries will be forced to respond with a focus on long term investing in businesses, not short term speculation in stocks.
但我们还需要更多。既然在我们的代理社会中,股票的有益所有权已分散到 1 亿共同基金股东和养老金受益人手中,我们需要从正在消失的所有权社会和失败的代理社会中,创建一种新的“受托人社会”。在这里,联邦法律将要求我们的代理/所有者将委托人的利益置于首位——一项持续执行的公共政策,明确要求我们的金融机构承担受托责任,只为受益人利益服务。该义务将明确要求它们有效且负责任地参与我们上市公司治理,并敦促我们的机构代理人回归早已久违的传统职业管家价值观。
But we need more. Since our agency society has so diffused the beneficial ownership of stocks among our 100-million mutual fund shareholders and pension beneficiaries, we also need to create, out of our disappearing ownership society and our failed agency society, a new “fiduciary society.” Here, our agent /owners would be required by federal law to place the interest of their principals first—a consistently enforced public policy that places a clear requirement of fiduciary duty on our financial institutions to serve exclusively the interests of their beneficiaries. That duty would expressly require their effective and responsible participation in the governance of our publicly-owned corporations, and demand the return of our institutional agents to the traditional values of professional stewardship tat are so long overdue.
旧卫士 – 第二部分 有些人从大自然中谋生;这被称为工作。
Old Guard – Part II Some men wrest a living from nature; this is called work.
有些人从那些从大自然中谋生的人身上谋生;这被称为贸易。
Some men wrest a living from those who wrest a living from nature; this is called trade.
有些人从那些从那些从大自然中谋生的人身上谋生的人身上谋生;这被称为金融。
Some men wrest a living from those who wrest a living from those who wrest a living from nature; this is called finance.
在那漫长的一生职业生涯中,我尽己所能让金融世界有效服务于数千万从自然和贸易中谋生的公民。但我对金融观察得越多,就越对其周期性地在市场、企业和我们社会中制造出的怪异扭曲感到疑惑。
In that one long career, I’ve done my best to make the world of finance work effectively for those scores of millions of our citizens who wrest their livings from nature and from trade. But, the more I observe of finance, the more I wonder about the grotesque distortions it periodically creates in our markets, in our business enterprises, and in our society.
知足 真实故事,名誉担保:现已去世的、重要而幽默的作家约瑟夫·海勒,和我在庇护岛一位亿万富翁举办的派对上。
ENOUGH True story, Word of Honor: Joseph Heller, an important and funny writer now dead, and I were at a party given by a billionaire on Shelter Island.
我说:“乔,知道我们的主人昨天可能赚的钱比你小说《第二十二条军规》整个历史赚的钱还多,你作何感想?”
I said, “Joe, how does it make you feel to know that our host only yesterday may have made more money than your novel ‘Catch-22’ has earned in its entire history?”
乔说:“我拥有他永远得不到的东西。”我说:“那到底是什么,乔?”乔说:“我知道我拥有的已经足够了。”不错!安息吧!
And Joe said, “I’ve got something he can never have.” And I said, “What on earth could that be, Joe?” And Joe said, “The knowledge that I’ve got enough.” Not bad! Rest in Peace!