金融改革:投资标准与道德价值
金融改革:投资标准与道德价值观
约翰·C·博格尔,先锋集团创始人
在布林莫尔长老会教堂社区论坛杰出系列讲座上的演讲
宾夕法尼亚州布林莫尔
2014 年 4 月 28 日
我上次在本论坛发言是十一年前。自那时以来,我们在商业、贸易和金融领域目睹了美国发生的巨大变化……可惜,其中太多变化把我们引向了错误的方向。更糟糕的是,我认为我们未能采取重大措施,去应对我在那次题为“美国企业到底出了什么问题?”的讲话中概括的种种挑战。
Financial Reform: Investment Standards and Ethical Values By John C. Bogle, founder of Vanguard before The Community Forum Distinguished Lecture Series of The Bryn Mawr Presbyterian Church Bryn Mawr, PA April 28, 2014 I last addressed this Forum eleven years ago. Since then, we’ve all seen remarkable changes in business, commerce, and finance in our nation . . . too many of them, alas, leading us in the wrong direction. Even worse, I think, is our failure to take significant steps to deal with the challenges that I outlined in those earlier remarks, entitled “What Went Wrong in Corporate America?”
接着,我的核心主题是美国“底线社会”的崛起——这个社会以国家产出、股市表现、企业利润、商业实力、高水平生活以及国民财富(尽管分配极不均衡)来衡量美国的成功。我最后得出结论:我们衡量的“是错误的那条底线——形式重于实质,声望重于美德,金钱重于成就,个人魅力重于品格,短暂重于持久。”
Then, my primary theme was the ascendance of a “bottom-line society” in our nation—measuring America’s success by our national output, our stock market, the earnings of our corporations, the strength of our businesses, our high standard of living, and the wealth—however unevenly divided—of our citizenry. I concluded that we were measuring “the wrong bottom line—form over substance, prestige over virtue, money over achievement, charisma over character, the ephemeral over the enduring.”
尽管那个有缺陷的“唯底线社会”依然占据主导,今晚我将聚焦它如何影响了我们国家的金融部门,并扭曲了当今金融世界中通行的投资标准与道德价值观之间的相互作用。自上次我在此圣地发言以来,这些标准和价值观都进一步恶化了。
While that flawed “bottom-line society” remains dominant, tonight I’ll focus on how it has affected our nation’s financial sector, and distorted the interplay between the investment standards and the ethical values that now prevail in our world of finance. Both these standards and these values have deteriorated even further since last I spoke in this sanctuary.
_______________ 注:本演讲中所表达的观点并不一定代表先锋集团现任管理层的看法。
_______________ Note: The opinions expressed in this speech do not necessarily represent the views of Vanguard’s present management.
投资标准
让我们从投资标准说起。在那次较早的讲话中,我曾满怀希望地说:“我们终于开始了一波改革浪潮,正着手将美国的资本发展从投机转向实业。”唉,这一希望已化为泡影。如今,我们的投资体系比以往任何时候都更被短期投机所淹没。长期投资的理念,在美国金融史这部漫长叙事中,已近乎沦为一个脚注。
Investment Standards Let’s begin with investment standards. In that earlier talk, I spoke with hope: “At last we are beginning a wave of reform, and are undertaking the task of turning America’s capital development away from speculation and toward enterprise.” Alas, that hope has been dashed, and our investment system is now more overwhelmed than ever before by short-term speculation. The concept of long-term investment is becoming little more than a footnote in the long narrative of U.S. financial history.
听着,我一点也没夸张。去年,美国股市的交易量达到了约 56 万亿美元的历史新高。日复一日,专业投资者们互相厮杀,看谁最聪明。他们以惊人的速度彼此交易。但他们不可能全都赢。因为总体而言,他们就是市场本身。作为一个群体,他们必然只能取得平均回报。(还能是别的结果吗?)
Look, I’m not exaggerating. Last year, the amount of trading in the U.S. stock market reached an all-time high of some $56 trillion dollars. Day after day, professional investors duke it out with one another to see who is the smartest. They trade with one another at a staggering rate. But they can’t all win. For in aggregate, they are the market. As a group, they inevitably achieve average returns. (How could it be otherwise?)
但在扣除了巨额换手率产生的交易成本后,他们的回报将低于股市本身的回报。因此,他们作为一个群体,为客户赚取的回报必然比股市少一个交易成本的差额。就像赛马场的“抽水”、州彩票的“提成”、拉斯维加斯赌场荷官索要的油水一样,华尔街赌场荷官抽取的过路费依然在继续。事实上,我们的荷官现在赚的钱比以往任何时候都多。
But after deducting the trading costs incurred by that huge turnover of stocks, their returns will fall below the returns generated by the stock market itself. So, the returns that they earn for their clients as a group, will inevitably fall short of the stock market by the amount of those trading costs. Like the “handle” at the race track, the “take” of the state lotteries, the grift demanded by the croupiers of Las Vegas, the tolls taken by the croupiers of the Wall Street Casino1 continue on. Indeed, our croupiers are making more money than ever before.
零和博弈
然而,华尔街赌场里的庄家并非唯一侵蚀投资者金融财富的因素。因为还有另一群庄家——他们是我国金融体系的受益者——也从中抽取了另一道费用。绝大多数投资者都聘请专业资金管理人代其投资。企业及州、地方政府的养老基金雇用了外部投资顾问。我们个人投资者也大抵如此,很可能通过持有共同基金来实现,如今约有 9000 万美国投资者持有共同基金份额。
The Zero-Sum Game But the croupiers in the Wall Street Casino are not the only drag on the financial wealth of investors. For there is yet another toll taken by yet another set of croupiers who are beneficiaries of our nation’s financial system. The vast majority of investors retain professional money managers to do their investing for them. Pension funds of corporations and state and local governments retain outside investment advisers. So do we individuals, most likely through our ownership of mutual funds, whose shares are now held by some 90 million American investors.
1999 年,《纽约时报》刊登了我的一篇署名文章,标题是“华尔街赌场”。我那时还不知道,这些问题会愈演愈烈。自那以后,交易量增长了 6 倍,而华尔街的“抽水”相比那个古老年代已翻了不知多少倍。
In 1999, The New York Times published my op-ed piece entitled “The Wall Street Casino.” Little did I know these problems would get worse and worse. Since then, trading volume has increased six times over, and Wall Street’s “take” is many times what it was in those ancient days.
每年,我们向这些顾问支付惊人的费用——大约 6000 亿美元甚至更多——只因人们相信他们有能力为投资者创造价值。然而在股市中,所有资金管理人在扣除全部成本之前的平均收益,没错,就是市场平均水平。这有什么稀奇?但在扣除他们的咨询费、由此产生的交易佣金、股东们额外承担的税费,以及所有营销费用和运营成本之后,他们参与的“零和游戏”变成了一场“输家游戏”——从整体来看,这场游戏必然从客户财富中抽走价值。
Each year, we pay these advisers staggering sums of money—perhaps $600 billion or more—for their presumed ability to add value for their investors. But in the stock market, the average money manager earns, yes, average returns before all of their costs. What else is new? But after their advisory fees, the trading commissions that they generate, the excess taxes to which their shareholders are subjected, and all their marketing expenses and operating costs, the “zero-sum game” they play becomes a “loser’s game,” a game that, in the aggregate, inevitably subtracts value from their clients’ wealth.
但等一下。华尔街难道不是汇聚投资者资本、为资本形成提供资金——也就是为资本主义这台巨大引擎提供润滑剂的吗?新企业不也需要资金来组建、创新、创造那些惠及我们消费者的新产品和新服务吗?现有企业不也需要资本来建设新工厂、购置新设备,并为自身创新提供资金吗?
But wait a minute. Isn’t it Wall Street that amasses investors’ capital, providing the wherewithal for capital formation—the grease, if you will, that lubricates the great engine of capitalism? And don’t new businesses need funding to organize, to innovate, to create the new products and services that benefit us consumers? And don’t existing businesses need capital for new plants and equipment, and to fund their own innovations?
是的,是的,还是是的。华尔街一直是一个有效的代理机构,为新兴企业和现有企业提供新鲜资本。实际上,近年来华尔街的投资银行家每年承销约 1000 亿美元的首次公开募股(IPO)股权资本,以及为现有公司额外承销 1700 亿美元的股权资本。事实上,华尔街融资的资本形成总额每年总计约 2700 亿美元。
Yes, yes, and yes. And Wall Street has been an effective agent for providing fresh capital to new and existing businesses alike. Indeed, in recent years the investment bankers of Wall Street have underwritten some $100 billion per year of equity capital in initial public offerings (IPOs) and an additional $170 billion in additional equity capital for existing corporations. In fact, the amount of capital formation that Wall Street finances has totaled some $270 billion per year.
当下:99.5% 投机,0.5% 投资
但资本形成已沦为华尔街这条狗身上的——好吧——尾巴。数字说明了一切。每年 56 万亿美元的交易量,投资者之间买入卖出,一分一秒,日复一日,年复一年。这 56 万亿美元的交易量,远远盖过了 2700 亿美元的资本形成总额。结果是:华尔街赌场里的短线交易,占了市场活动的 99.5%;长期资本形成,只占 0.5%。然而,唯有资本形成为社会增添了价值。交易,按定义来说,是减损价值的。没错,赌场心态仍然高踞金融领域的头把交椅。
Today: 99.5% Speculation, 0.5% Investment But capital formation has become, well, the tail of the Wall Street dog. The numbers tell the story. $56 trillion per year in trading volume, as investors buy from and sell to one another, minute after minute, day after day, year after year. That $56 trillion of trading volume dwarfs the capital formation total of $270 billion. Result: short-term trading in the Wall Street Casino represents 99.5 percent of the market’s activity; long-term capital formation 0.5 percent. But it is only capital formation that adds value to our society. Trading, by definition, subtracts value. Indeed, the casino mentality remains in the catbird seat of finance.
这对投资者和社会而言是好事还是坏事?正如诺贝尔经济学奖得主、《纽约时报》专栏作家保罗·克鲁格曼最近所言,“社会正在将越来越多的资源投入金融投机交易,却没有得到什么回报,甚至一无所获。”我或许可以更进一步说,我们得到的回报其实比零还要少。更广泛地看,我们要警惕 1936 年英国伟大的经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯的一句至理名言:“当企业沦为投机漩涡上的一串泡沫时,形势就严峻了。因为当一个国家的资本发展变成了赌场活动的副产品时,这项工作很可能做得一团糟。”
Is that good or bad for investors and for our society? As Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman recently put it, “society is devoting an ever-growing share of its resources to financial wheeling and dealing, while getting little or nothing in return.” I might go even further, and suggest that we are getting less than nothing in return. More broadly, be warned by these words of wisdom from the great British economist John Maynard Keynes in 1936: “When enterprise becomes a mere bubble on a whirlpool of speculation, the position is serious. For when the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done.”
第一原则 所以让我总结第一点:短期投机的主导地位正在侵蚀我们的投资标准,这些标准正在退化。部分原因在于投资者过分关注股市的瞬时涨跌,这在很多方面都只是噪音——用莎士比亚的话说,“一个白痴讲述的故事,充满了喧嚣与愤怒,却毫无意义。”股市实际上是衍生品,是大约 3500 家上市公司当前市场价格的总和。这些股票价格的价值来源,是这些公司集体产生的股息收益率和盈利增长。
First Principles So let me sum up my first point: Eroded by the dominance of short-term speculation, our Investment Standards are deteriorating. Part of the reason is that investors focus far too much attention on the momentary rises and falls of the stock market, which are in so many respects just noise—in Shakespearian terms, “a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.” The stock market is in fact a derivative, a collection of the current market prices of some 3,500 publicly-held corporations. Those stock prices derive their value from the dividend yields and earnings growth that these corporations collectively generate.
内在价值(投资回报)是我们用来描述这一现象的短语之一。内在价值反映在真实市场中——本质上,是美国企业实际取得的成就。真实的公司,拥有真实的战略,由真实的人管理和运营,以越来越高的效率生产真实的产品和真实的服务,为真实的所有者赚取真实的回报,并向这些所有者分配真实的股息。
Intrinsic value (investment return) is one phrase we use to describe this phenomenon. Intrinsic value is reflected in the real market—essentially, what U.S. businesses actually accomplish. Real companies, with real strategies, managed and operated by real people, producing real products and real services ever more efficiently, with real returns earned for real owners, and real dividends distributed to those owners.
真实市场所反映的内在价值,是所有这些公司未来预期现金流的折现值。对任何一家公司而言,这些未来现金流都存在不确定性。但总体来看,所有公司合起来的现金流通常与美国经济增长趋势保持一致——过去一个世纪里,美国经济虽有中断,但始终以每年约 2.5% 的稳定速度(按通胀调整后的美元计算)向前发展。当股市以秒、天、年为单位猛涨暴跌时,它所反映的无非是那些转瞬即逝的情绪——希望、贪婪与恐惧——这些情绪自古以来就一直影响着投资者(或者我应该说,投机者)。这些情绪代表了投资者对当下事件做出的反应,或对未来事件的预期,或对其他投资者如何看待这些事件的揣测。正因如此,我们称之为预期市场,投机情绪常常把股价推高或压低至远超或远低于其内在价值的水平。换句话说,投机回报反映的是投资者愿意为每一美元盈利支付的价格变动。
The intrinsic value reflected in the real market is the expected future cash flows generated by all of those corporations, discounted over time. For any individual corporation, those future flows are uncertain. But the cash flows for all corporations in aggregate generally track the growth of our U.S. economy, which has moved forward, despite interruptions, at a steady pace of about 2 ½% per year (in inflation adjusted dollars) over the past century. When the stock market leaps up and plunges down— second-by-second, day-by-day, year-by-year—it reflects nothing more than those transitory emotions— hope, and greed, and fear—that have affected investors (or, I should say, speculators) forever. These emotions represent investors’ reactions to momentary events, or their expectations of future events, or their expectations of how other investors might perceive these events. That’s why we call it the expectations market, with speculative sentiment often raising or lowering stock prices far above or below their intrinsic value. In other words, speculative return reflects the change in price investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings.
然而,在长期中,投机回报对市场总回报的形成没有发挥任何作用。实际上,投资回报几乎完全决定了股票长期产生的所有回报。纵观美国股市的整个历史,投资回报平均为 9%——其中股息收益率贡献 4.5%,盈利增长贡献 4.5%。2 而长期中的投机回报则为零——一无所获。这就是为什么我将股市描述为“对投资事业的一种巨大干扰”。
Over the long run, however, speculative return has played no role whatsoever in shaping the market’s total returns. Rather, it is investment return that has accounted for virtually all of the long-run returns generated by stocks. Over the entire history of the U.S. stock market, the investment return has averaged 9%—4 ½% from dividend yields, and 4 ½ % from earnings growth.2 Speculative return, over the long term, has accounted for zero—nothing. That’s why I describe the stock market as “a giant distraction from the business of investing.”
道德价值
20 世纪 80 年代和 90 年代的长期牛市,让人们将注意力从内在价值转向了股价。套用奥斯卡·王尔德对犬儒主义者的定义,“证券分析师变成了知道每样东西的价格,却不知道任何东西价值的人”。市场好的时候,我们在贪婪中狂欢;市场差的时候,我们又在恐惧中煎熬。而自 1980 年以来,我们经历过两次 50% 幅度的熊市下跌,在那期间,我们只能寄希望于情况会好转(也确实好转了)。在股票连续二十年强劲回报的背景下,华尔街太容易越界,而投资者似乎也心平气和地接受了这样一个想法:那些赌场荷官们所耗费的成本其实无足轻重。在连续二十年每年获得 9% 的超越平均回报之后,大多数投资者不会太在意这样一个事实:市场本身每年赚了 11%。
Ethical Values The great Bull Market of the 1980s and 1990s led to a focus on stock prices over intrinsic values. Paraphrasing Oscar Wilde’s definition of the cynic, the “security analyst became one who knows the price of everything, but the value of nothing.” We reveled in our greed when markets were good. We suffered in our fear when they were bad. And during the two 50% Bear Market declines we’ve experienced since 1980, we relied on the hope that things would get better. (They did!) During two consecutive decades of strong returns for stocks, Wall Street was all too likely to overreach, and investors seem to accept with equanimity the idea that the costs of all those croupiers didn’t matter much. After 20 years of earning above-average returns of, say, 9% each year, most investors wouldn’t pay much attention to the fact that the market itself earned 11% per year.
在股市攀升的时期,金融业的繁荣不足为奇。尽管(或许正因为)降低价值的投机行为压过了提升价值的投资行为——这给社会带来了净负面效应——但金融业对社会资源的索取却稳步增长:从 1980 年占国内生产总值(GDP)的 5%,到 1990 年的 6%,2000 年的 7.5%,去年估计已达到 10%。这可是一笔真金白银——大约 1.6 万亿美元。
During the rising stock market, it shouldn’t be surprising that the field of finance has flourished. Despite (or perhaps, because of) the dominance of (value-reducing) speculation over (value-enhancing) investment—a net minus for our society—the financial industry’s claim on the resources of our society has steadily increased—from 5% of our gross domestic product (GDP) in 1980, to 6% in 1990, to 7 ½% in 2000, and to an estimated 10% last year. That’s real money—some $1.6 trillion dollars.
对整个社会而言,这是多么适得其反的演进!我们国家最优秀、最聪明的人才,有太多被华尔街赌场里那些“荷官”们靠彩票式赔率赚来的收益所吸引,纷纷投身其中,而非参与“实体”经济。华尔街专注于通过短期投机快速获利,而不是通过企业内在价值的真正长期增长来积累财富。但这种短期主义是不可持续的。正如诺贝尔经济学奖得主约瑟夫·E·斯蒂格利茨所言:“成功的增长必须建立在长期投资的基础之上。”
What a counter-productive progression for our society as a whole! Rather than participating in the “real” economy, far too many of our nation’s best and brightest have been attracted to the lottery-like payouts garnered by the croupiers of the Wall Street Casino. Instead of focusing on building wealth through the real long-term growth of corporate intrinsic value, Wall Street concentrates on the quick payoffs from short-term speculation. But this short-termism is not sustainable. As Economics Nobel Laureate Joseph E. Stiglitz says, “successful growth has to be based on long-term investment.”
正是在这种繁荣之中——对投资者而言如此,对金融体系而言更甚——我们找到了金融道德标准滑坡的大部分原因。金钱就像权力一样,会腐蚀人。而绝对的金钱会绝对地腐蚀人。这并非道听途说。在我漫长的职业生涯中,我亲眼目睹了我们的行为准则发生了严重退化。传统行业标准是,“有些事情,即便今天股息收益率只有 2%,指望未来几年获得 9% 的回报也是不明智的。”
It is in this very prosperity—for investors, yes, but even more for the financial system—that we find much of the reason for the decline in the ethical standards of finance. Money, like power, corrupts. And absolute money corrupts absolutely. This is not just hearsay. During my long career, I’ve witnessed great deterioration in our standards of conduct. The traditional industry standard, “There are some things With dividend yields at only 2% today, it would be unwise to anticipate a 9% return in the years ahead.
那句“这事就是不能做”,如今已被一条新标准取代:“要是大家都这么做,我也能这么做。” 简而言之,我们的道德根基已从道德绝对主义滑向了道德相对主义。这一转变,让我们的社会在职业行为的首要特质上渐行渐远——也就是对客户利益的承诺,一种负责任、无私且明智地服务的承诺……并在职业人士与整个社会之间建立一种本质上的道德关系。3 “一人难侍二主” 我们看到这种变化,不仅出现在蓬勃发展的金融领域,也遍及社会的许多其他方面。职业人士与客户的关系,正越来越多地被重新定义为商业机构与顾客的关系。想想医疗行业、新闻行业、法律行业、会计行业、建筑行业,当然还有共同基金行业——这些领域正逐渐从受信赖的专业人士服务社区利益,转向商业企业寻求竞争优势并最大化自身财富,而那些依赖这些服务的人成了输家。在一个所有服务使用者被视为顾客的世界里,每一个服务提供者都变成了卖家,专业人士的更广阔视野则被抛之脑后。正如常言所说:“当提供者变成一把锤子,每个顾客都成了一枚钉子。”
that one simply does not do,” has changed to a new standard: “If everyone else is doing it, I can do it too.” In short, our ethical foundation has changed from moral absolutism to moral relativism. That change has taken our society a long way from the principal attribute of professional conduct—a commitment to the interests of clients, a commitment to serve responsibly, selflessly, and wisely . . . and to establish an inherently ethical relationship between the professional and the general society.3 “No Man Can Serve Two Masters” We see this change of course, not only in our burgeoning financial sector, but in many other segments of our society as well. Professional relationships with clients have been increasingly recast as business relationships with customers. Think about trends in medicine; in journalism; in law; in accounting; in architecture; and, yes, in the mutual fund industry—a gradual shift away from trusted professionals serving the interests of the community toward commercial enterprises seeking competitive advantage and maximizing their own wealth, with the human beings who rely on these services being the losers. In a world where every user of services is seen as a customer, every provider of services became a seller, and the broader perspective of the professional falls by the wayside. As it is said, “When the provider becomes a hammer, every customer is seen as a nail.”
这种趋势已充分体现在金融与资金管理领域的根本性转变中——从一项恪守受托责任与信托义务的专业,蜕变为一门依赖营销与推销的生意。共同基金行业自身难辞其咎。其规模从 1951 年我入行时的 25 亿美元,飙升至如今的 15 万亿美元,这使原本以小型专业为主的行当膨胀为巨型产业。投资重心从长期转向短期,年度投资组合换手率从我入行时的 22%,飙升至目前的 85%——一只投资组合股票五年平均的持有时间,现已缩短至仅 14 个月。产品种类泛滥——为各种可想象的需求定制基金——挤掉了该行业对以“蓝筹股”为主的投资组合这一传统关注焦点,所谓“一种证券完成全部投资计划”的主张。
Such a trend has been reflected in the sea-change in finance and money management—from a profession of fiduciary duty and trusteeship to a business of marketing and salesmanship. The mutual fund industry itself has much to answer for. Its enormous growth—from $2 ½ billion when I started in the industry in 1951 to $15 trillion today—led to the expansion of what was mostly a small profession into a giant business. Its investment focus moved from the long term to the short term, with annual portfolio turnover soaring from 22% when I entered the field to 85% currently—a five-year average holding period for a portfolio stock has fallen to a holding period of only fourteen months. Product proliferation—a fund for every imaginable purpose—has crowded out the fund industry’s traditional focus on portfolios dominated by “blue-chip” stocks—a “complete investment program in one security.”
在所有变化中最有害的一点是,昔日小型私募基金管理公司已在很大程度上被大型上市公司所取代。如今,50 家最大的共同基金公司中有 40 家由金融集团或其他外部股东所有和控制。随着这批新的主宰者寻求……这些想法受到 2005 年夏季《代达罗斯》——美国艺术与科学院期刊——上文章的启发,其中包括霍华德·加德纳和李·舒尔曼合写的《当今美国的专业:关键但脆弱》。
In the most baneful change of all, the small private fund management companies of yore have been largely replaced by giant public companies. Today, 40 of the 50 largest mutual fund firms are owned and controlled by financial conglomerates or other outside shareholders. As this new set of masters sought These ideas were inspired by articles in the Summer, 2005 issue of Daedalus, the Journal of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, including “The Professions in America Today: Crucial but Fragile” by Howard Gardner and Lee Schulman.
首先关注的是他们自身资本的回报率,其次才是基金股东投入资本的回报率——我们忘了《圣经》的训诫:“一个人不能侍奉两个主”(《马太福音》6:24)。1776 年,伟大的苏格兰经济学家兼哲学家亚当·斯密曾告诫投资者务必谨慎,因为“……管理他人钱财的人,很少会像管理自己钱财那样……抱着同样焦虑的警觉去照看它。……就像富人家的管家,他们很容易就给自己开了绿灯。因此,疏忽和挥霍必定会一直大行其道。”
first the return on their own capital, and only second the return on the capital invested by the funds’ shareholders, we forgot the Biblical admonition that “no man can serve two masters” (Matthew 6:24).4 In 1776, the great Scottish economist and philosopher Adam Smith warned investors to be careful, for “. . . the managers of other people’s money [rarely] watch over it with the same anxious vigilance with which . . . they watch over their own. . . . Like the stewards of a rich man, they very easily give themselves a dispensation. Negligence and profusion therefore must always prevail.”
而更多坏消息,可由以下三个例子突显:第一,尽管行业规模大幅增长,主要基金公司的费用率却从 1951 年的 0.62% 上升到 2013 年的 1.15%——几乎翻倍!——这意味着,管理他人资金所实现的巨大规模经济效应,被管理人据为己有,而非让股东享受。第二,时任纽约州总检察长埃利奥特·斯皮策揭露的“时区”交易丑闻,揭示了众多大型共同基金管理公司与对冲基金公司之间的合谋,旨在欺诈共同基金的长期股东。第三,基金所谓的“独立”董事对其的监督形同虚设,因为基金主席(通常也是基金管理公司的主席)主导着董事会决策。他同样是在“侍奉二主”!
And there’s more bad news, highlighted by these three examples: One, despite the industry’s huge growth, the expense ratios of the major funds5 have risen from 0.62% in 1951 and 1.15% in 2013— almost double!—meaning that the huge economies of scale available in the management of other people’s money has been arrogated by the managers to themselves, rather than being enjoyed by the shareholders. Two, the “time-zone” trading scandals unearthed by then-New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer revealed a conspiracy between many giant mutual fund managers and hedge fund managers to defraud the long-term shareholders of the mutual funds. Third, the purported oversight of the funds by their so-called “independent” directors has accomplished little, as the fund chairman (usually also the chairman of the fund’s manager) dominates board decisions. He too is serving “two masters!”
《快闪小子》 但不行,投机的诱惑永远不会被根除。早在公元前二世纪(你没看错!),罗马演说家加图就曾警告过投资者的投机行为,但这一现象至今仍与我们同在……只是远比那时更为普遍。你肯定对这个问题最新、也无疑最突出的例子再熟悉不过了,那就是迈克尔·刘易斯新近的畅销书《快闪小子》及其强大的公关攻势。这本书的非凡成功再次印证:知名作者笔锋犀利的论战性作品会迅速售罄,而对争议性话题的平衡研究却鲜有人问津。尽管《快闪小子》提出了尖锐(且部分准确)的批评,但股票的高频交易并不会就此消失。
Flash Boys But no, the temptation to speculate will never be stamped out. During the second century B.C.(!) the Roman orator Cato warned about speculation by investors, but it remains with us to this day . . . only far more widespread. You’re doubtless familiar with the most recent and surely the most prominent example of the problem, presented in Michael Lewis’s new best-seller Flash Boys, with its powerful public- relations onslaught. The book’s remarkable success reaffirms that well-written polemics by proven authors fly off the shelves, while balanced studies of controversial subjects rarely sell books. Despite Flash Boy’s scathing (and partially accurate) criticisms, high frequency trading (HFT) of stocks is not going away.
当然,一个公平且符合公共利益的高频交易系统需要满足许多条件——所有股票交易必须及时、完整地报告;那些新兴的高频交易交易所需定期提供财务报表;监管机构要对内幕交易和抢先交易(front-running)采取执法行动;还要出台新规则,禁止通过下达交易订单后又迅速取消来玩弄花招。但高频交易并非一无是处。它确实在缩小……请原谅我将神圣与世俗混为一谈。在本次演讲中,我还会再引用三次《圣经》。在这里,我排除了先锋基金(Vanguard),其费用率从 0.55% 骤降至 0.17%,降幅接近 70%。
To be sure, much is required to ensure that HFT operates fairly and in the public interest—timely and full reporting of all stock trades; regular financial statements from those new HFT exchanges; regulatory enforcement against insider trading and front-running, new rules against playing games by entering transaction orders and quickly cancelling them. But HFT is not all bad. It has helped shrink Please forgive my mixing of the sacred and the profane. In this talk, I’ll cite the Bible three more times. Here I exclude the Vanguard funds, whose expense ratios plummeted from 0.55% to 0.17%, down almost 70%.
交易成本降至极低水平;为专业投资者带来了更大的流动性,改善了(或许只是轻微地)价格发现功能,并提升了市场效率。这些都是好事。但我们的股票市场日益计算机化,技术故障的巨大风险仍潜伏在地平线之外,未被察觉。在这个数据密集、速度驱动的社会里,高频交易确实会长期存在。
transaction costs to a bare minimum; produced greater liquidity, and improved (perhaps only slightly) price discovery and greater market efficiency for professional investors. That’s all to the good. But the huge risks of a technology breakdown in our increasingly computerized stock market remains hidden out there, beyond the horizon. In our data-intensive, speed-driven society, yes, HFT is here to stay.
ETF 玩具 我发现,指数基金竟然成了投资者似乎难以抗拒的投机冲动的又一个例证,这既令人震惊,也深感沮丧。试想!1975 年,先锋集团创建了世界第一只指数共同基金,遵循这一基本策略:(1) 买入并持有标普 500 指数中的所有股票;(2) 以极低成本运营;(3) 吸引希望永久持有股市组合的长期投资者。
ETF Toys I find it both astonishing and deeply discouraging that index funds have become one more example of the apparently irresistible impulse of investors to speculate. Imagine! In 1975, Vanguard created the world’s first index mutual fund, following this elemental strategy: (1) buy and hold all of the stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index; (2) operate at rock-bottom cost; and (3) attract long-term investors who wish to hold the stock market portfolio, well, forever.
那些最初颇为理性的指数投资策略,对长期投资者而言,以极具建设性意义的方式重塑了投资格局。但交易所交易指数基金(ETF)恰与指数成功的关键之三——永远持有市场——背道而驰。首只 ETF 成立于 1991 年,同样以标普 500 指数为基准,但多了个“卖点”——体现在它的广告语中——其份额可以“全天候实时交易”。(我没在编故事!)这只名为“SPY”的 ETF 坐拥 1600 亿美元资产,如今已是全球最大的 ETF。它也是全球交易最活跃的股票,日均交易量超过 200 亿美元!
Those original sensible strategies of indexing have reshaped investing in a highly positive way for long-term investors. But the exchange-traded index fund (ETF) is the antithesis of that third key to index success—holding the market forever. Formed in 1991,6 the first ETF was also based on the S&P 500, but with the added “feature”—embodied in its advertising slogan—that its shares could be “traded all day long, in real time.” (I’m not making this up!) With $160 billion of assets, the so-called “SPY” is now the world’s largest ETF. It is also the most widely traded stock in the world, averaging more than $20 billion of trading volume every day!
与传统指数基金(TIF)的 290 只相比,如今已有 1500 只 ETF 指数基金。美国 ETF 坐拥 2.1 万亿美元资产,实际上已比其鼻祖 TIF 略胜一筹,而且每周都有更多这类供投资者投机的新玩具问世。教训是:永远不要低估一种火爆的新营销手段(或者,这里算是半个创新)的力量。套用 H. L. 门肯的话,“没有哪个基金营销者会因为低估美国投资者的智商而破产。”当你得知指数基金被设计出来并用于短期投机时,我并没有感到有趣,你大概也不会惊讶。
Compared to 290 traditional index funds (TIFs),7 there are now 1,500 ETF index funds. With $2.1 trillion of assets, U.S. ETFs are now actually a tad larger than their TIF progenitors, and more of these new toys for investor speculation are created every week. The lesson: Never underestimate the power of a hot new marketing innovation (or, here, one-half an innovation). Paraphrasing H. L. Mencken, “no fund marketer ever went broke by underestimating the intelligence of the American investor.” You will hardly be surprised to know that when index funds are designed and used for short-term speculation, I am not amused.
已故的内森·莫斯特是第一只 ETF 的创造者。1991 年,他来到我的办公室,提出要与先锋集团合作实施他的新构想。我婉拒了。尽管 SPY 取得了惊人的增长,我对那个决定毫不后悔。
The late Nathan Most was the creator of the first ETF. In 1991, he came to my office with an offer to partner with Vanguard in implementing his new concept. I declined the offer. Despite the SPY’s remarkable growth, I have zero regrets about that decision.
我创造了这个缩写,目的是简化两种指数基金之间的区分。
I created this acronym to simplify the distinction between the two types of index funds.
再来听听其他批评者的声音。我在这里要说明清楚。虽然我的声音可能刺耳,而且在我漫长的职业生涯中,我对自身所从事的金融行业的批评在同行中实属罕见,但我并非孤军奋战。事实上,金融界最受尊敬的声音之一、现任纽约联邦储备银行行长的威廉·C·达德利,也与我有着同样的忧虑。“有证据表明,许多大型金融机构存在根深蒂固的文化和道德失灵。”达德利还补充说,“我国大型银行面临的信任问题,是他们自己一手造成的——他们咎由自取。”在成为美联储行长之前,达德利先生曾是高盛的合伙人,因此他似乎在评论金融界普遍存在的道德失灵问题上独有资格。
Let’s Hear From Some Other Critics Let me be clear here. While my voice may be strident, and my criticism of the field in which I’ve plied my long career is a distinct rarity among my colleagues in finance, I am not quite alone. Indeed, one of the most respected voices in finance, William C. Dudley, now president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, shares my concern. “There is evidence of deep-seated cultural and ethical failures at many large financial institutions.” Dudley added, “the trust issue faced by our nation’s giant banks, is one of their own doing—they have done it to themselves.” As a partner of Goldman Sachs before he became Fed president, Mr. Dudley would seem singularly qualified to comment on the ethical failures in finance that have been so rife.
另一位金融界的客观观察者是《纽约时报》专栏作家戴维·布鲁克斯(他是我最爱的观点版作者)。以下是他在 2008 年一篇题为《伟大的诱惑》的专栏中所做的概述:“创建这个国家的人们,围绕金钱建立了一套道德架构。清教徒的遗产抑制了奢侈和放纵。本杰明·富兰克林传播了一种务实的福音,强调勤奋、节制和节俭。数以百万计的父母、传教士、报纸编辑和教师不断宣扬这一信息。其成果相当非凡。”
Another objective observer of the financial world is New York Times columnist David Brooks (my favorite opinion page writer). Here’s his overview, from a column that he wrote in 2008 entitled “The Great Seduction”: “The people who created this country built a moral structure around money. The Puritan legacy inhibited luxury and self-indulgence. Benjamin Franklin spread a practical gospel that emphasized hard work, temperance, and frugality. Millions of parents, preachers, newspaper editors, and teachers expounded the message. The result was quite remarkable.
美国自建国以来就是一个富裕的国家。但总体而言,这个国家并未被财富腐蚀。几个世纪以来,它始终保持着勤勉、进取和节俭的品质……过去 30 年间,这些品质中的大部分已遭撕裂。那些鼓励节俭和量入为出的社会规范与制度已被侵蚀。这个国家的道德卫士们总是在好莱坞和真人秀中寻找堕落。但如今最猖獗的堕落是金融堕落,即关于如何运用和驾驭金钱的体面规范被践踏。”
The United States has been an affluent nation since its founding. But the country was, by and large, not corrupted by wealth. For centuries, it remained industrious, ambitious, and frugal . . . Over the past 30 years, much of that has been shredded. The social norms and institutions that encouraged frugality and spending what you earn have been undermined. The country’s moral guardians are forever looking for decadence out of Hollywood and reality TV. But the most rampant decadence today is financial decadence, the trampling of decent norms about how to use and harness money.”
你可以在整个金融领域看到这种变化。我们关注数字、数字、数字——所有这些都极易被操纵——却忽视了为投资者服务的受托责任(正如我长久以来所言),“那些实实在在、脚踏实地的普通人,每个人都有自己的希望、恐惧和财务目标。”阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦办公室里有句标语:“并非所有重要的东西都能被计算,也并非所有能被计算的东西都重要。”然而今天,那些真正重要的传统投资标准和道德价值观,已被我们的——没错——“唯底线社会”所压倒。
You can see this change all through finance. We focus on numbers, numbers, numbers—all easily manipulated—and lose sight of our fiduciary responsibility to serve investors, (as I have so long said) “honest-to-God, down-to-earth human beings, each with their own hopes, fears, and financial goals.” A sign in Albert Einstein’s office read: “Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts.” Yet today the traditional investment standards and ethical values that truly count have been overwhelmed by the dominance of our, yes, “bottom-line” society.
无论这些趋势意味着什么,消费者的利益——那些将血汗钱托付给我们行业管理的基金股东——常常被投资服务生产者——基金行业的管理者和营销者——所忽视。这种取向与亚当·斯密的更多智慧背道而驰,他在 1776 年的《国富论》中总结道:生产者的利益,只有在促进消费者利益所必需的范围内,才应受到关注。这句格言不证自明,以至于试图证明它都是荒谬的……消费者的利益……必须是一切工业和商业的终极目的和对象。
Whatever else these trends may mean, the interest of consumers—the fund shareholders who entrust their hard-earned dollars to our industry’s care—have too often been given short shrift by the producers of investment services—the fund industry’s managers and marketers. This orientation flies in the face of some more wisdom from Adam Smith, who summed it up in his Wealth of Nations in 1776: The interest of the producer ought to be attended to, only so far as it may be necessary for promoting that of the consumer. The maxim is so perfectly self-evident, that it would be absurd to attempt to prove it . . . The interest of the consumer . . . must be the ultimate end and object of all industry and commerce.
长远来看,对投资者忠诚服务是良好的道德,而良好的道德也是良好的商业。这是当今股票交易商和基金经理应当铭记的教训。
In the long-run, faithful service to investors is good ethics, and good ethics is good business. That’s a lesson that today’s stock traders and fund managers should take to heart.
如果你发现对我今晚描述的趋势感到些许沮丧,我也是。但实话实说,所有这些投机行为,只对短期投机者有意义。它对长期投资者应该几乎没有影响——实际上,完全没有影响。因为,我再重复一遍,股票市场中产生的全部长期回报,并非来自短期投机,而是来自长期投资。此外,对于醒来并闻到玫瑰香的长期投资者而言,共同基金中存在一些选择,这些基金本身已经抵制了那些有害的趋势,即过高的投资组合周转率、投资咨询费以及其他已达到没收性水平的共同基金营销和运营成本。
If you find yourself a tad depressed by the trends I’ve described this evening, so am I. But all this speculation, truth told, only matters to short-term speculators. It should have little impact—indeed no impact—on long-term investors. For, I repeat, the entire long-term return earned in the stock market is derived, not from short-term speculation, but from long-term investment. Further, for the long-term investor who wakes up and smells the roses, there are options among mutual funds that have themselves defied these baneful trends toward excessive portfolio turnover and investment advisory fees and other mutual fund marketing and operating costs that have reached confiscatory levels.
关于先锋集团的几句话 先锋集团早在 1974 年就成立了——远在我今晚所描述并痛斥的那些趋势兴起之前。先锋集团的创立宗旨就是服务消费者,正如亚当·斯密所要求的那样。现在,尽管有些勉强,我将“谈自己的书”,如俗话所说,对先锋集团在我们的金融体系中所扮演的角色做些评论。
A Few Words About Vanguard Vanguard was created way back in 1974 —long before the ascendance of the trends I have described—and decried—this evening. Vanguard was designed to serve the consumer, just as Adam Smith demanded. Now, with some reluctance on my part, I’ll now “talk my own book,” as the saying goes, with a few comments on Vanguard’s role in our financial system.
我相信,在每个行业领域,至少需要一家公司,它实际上宣称:“我们看到你们在做什么,我们认为我们能做得更好,以更低的价格、更高的效率,用更好的产品和更好的服务来服务客户。”最终结果是,我们那令人震惊的颠覆性创新——像贵格会教徒般的节俭与简单——彻底改变了金融领域,使投资者受益。
In every line of endeavor, I believe, we need at least one firm that says, in effect, “we see what you’re doing, and we think that we can do it better, and serve the customer with better products and better services, at lower prices, and with greater efficiency.” The net result is that our shockingly disruptive innovations—Quaker-like in their Thrift and Simplicity—revolutionized the field of finance, to the benefit of investors.
我们成为第一家由客户拥有的、真正相互制的共同基金公司,拥有我们非传统的结构——一种至今未被竞争对手复制的结构。为什么是相互制?虽然在公司成立多年后,我直到阅读《约翰福音》第 10 章时才看到这段圣经信息,但它阐述了我们的核心原则:牧羊人对他拥有的羊群的照顾,比雇工更好。套用《约翰福音》的话:“雇工看见狼来,就撇下羊逃走,狼抓住羊,他并不顾念羊。”同样,先锋集团的股东实际上拥有他们自己的基金管理公司,而不是聘请外部公司并放弃对其资产的控制权。这其中有着天壤之别。(不,先锋集团的结构并非完美无缺——这只是我当时能做到的最好状态。)
We became the first client-owned, truly mutual mutual fund firm, with our non-traditional structure—a structure yet to be copied by our rivals. Why mutual? While I didn’t come across this biblical message in John 10 until many years after we began, it sets forth our defining principle: the shepherd takes better care of the sheep that he owns than the hired hand. Paraphrasing John: “when the hired hand sees the wolf coming and flees, the wolf snatches the sheep, for he cares nothing for them.” Similarly, Vanguard’s shareholders actually own their fund management company, rather than hiring an outside firm and ceding control of their assets. Therein lies a world of difference. (No, the Vanguard structure is not perfect—just the best I could do at the time.)
贵格会价值观 我们的独特结构自然引出了一个显而易见的结果:主要聚焦节俭和简单的原则,旨在将股东的投的资成本降到实际最低。关于节俭,我们很快成为这个成本决定一切的行业中的低成本提供者。(1977 年,我们决定取消所有销售费用和经纪佣金——这使得那些寻找“更好的捕鼠器”的人能够直接找到我们——正是这种以节俭为导向的态度的产物。)
Quaker Values Our very structure led to the obvious: a primary focus on the principles of thrift and simplicity, designed to reduce to the practical minimum the costs of investing for our shareholders. As to thrift, we soon became the low-cost provider in an industry in which cost is everything. (Our 1977 decision to eliminate all sales loads and brokerage commissions—which allowed those who sought “a better mousetrap” to beat a path to our doors—was a product of that same thrift-oriented attitude.)
关于简单,我们在 1975 年创建了世界上第一只股票市场指数共同基金,并在 1977 年创建了第一批设定到期期限的债券共同基金系列(长期、短期、中期……投资者选择符合其需求的那一款),这不仅体现了节俭,也体现了简单。 我们将梭罗式的简单这一无价之宝融入我们的结构:最大可能的多元化、最低可能的投资组合周转率,以及(当然)最低限度的金融复杂性。 我们甚至在那个时代——远早于其时机成熟之前——就意识到一个现实:在共同基金行业,投资者作为一个群体,得到的并非他们支付的东西;他们得到的恰恰是他们没有支付的东西。 因此,如果他们(几乎)什么都不付出,他们就会得到(几乎)一切。
As to simplicity, our creation of the world’s first stock-market-index mutual fund in 1975, and the first defined-maturity series of bond mutual funds in 1977 (long-term, short-term, intermediate-term . . . investors choose whichever meets their needs) reflect not only Thrift, but Simplicity. We built into our structure the priceless value of Thoreau-like simplicity: the broadest possible diversification, the lowest possible portfolio turnover, and (of course) a minimum of financial complexity. We recognized even then, well before its time, the reality that in the mutual fund industry, investors as a group do not get what they pay for; they get precisely what they don’t pay for. Therefore, if they pay (almost) nothing, they get (almost) everything.
尽管有这种显而易见(且制胜)的策略,我们还是经历了十年的失望、挫折和失败,才充分赢得投资者的信任并吸引他们的资产。 直到 1980 年代末,转机才最终到来。 随后不断增长的势头,到 2009 年,使先锋集团成为我们领域最大的公司。(这并非我在吹嘘。 我仍然对我们庞大的规模以及管理别人钱的这 2.5 万亿美元的挑战感到不安。) 主要由我们的指数基金和采用指数化投资策略的基金驱动,我们的增长仍然领先于行业。 尽管大约 20% 的共同基金投资者持有先锋集团的基金份额,但近年来,我们占了整个共同基金行业总净现金流的大约 40%。
Despite that obvious (and winning) strategy, it took a decade of disappointments, setbacks, and failures to fully engage the trust—and attract the assets—of investors. Not until the late 1980s did the turn finally come. The increasing momentum that followed would, by 2009, make Vanguard the largest firm in our field. (That is hardly bragging on my part. I remain nervous about our giant size and the challenges of managing $2 ½ trillion of Other People’s Money.) Driven largely by our index funds and funds with index-like investment strategies, our growth still leads the field. While about 20 percent of mutual fund investors hold Vanguard fund shares, in recent years we have accounted for some 40 percent of the total net cash flows into the entire mutual fund industry.
关于指数化投资,我要做最后一点评论,再引用一次圣经。 几周前,布林莫尔长老会教堂的牧师阿格尼斯·诺弗利特博士在她的布道中引用了我最喜欢的圣经段落之一,来自《诗篇》第 118 篇(在《马太福音》第 21 章、《马可福音》第 12 章和《路加福音》第 20 章中重复出现)。 “匠人所弃的石头,已成了房角的头块石头。” 同样,在金融领域,指数基金——最初被华尔街嘲笑、诋毁和拒绝,被斥为“非美国式”甚至更糟(试试“博格尔的蠢行”)——已成为我们行业的房角石。 指数基金现在占所有美国股票共同基金资产的超过三分之一(!)。
I’ll make one final comment about indexing, and yet one more biblical reference. In her sermon several weeks ago, Bryn Mawr Presbyterian Church pastor Dr. Agnes Norfleet cited one of my favorite Biblical passages, from Psalm 118 (repeated in Matthew 21, Mark 12, and Luke 20). “The stone which the builders rejected has become the chief cornerstone.” Similarly, in the field of finance, the index fund—originally scorned, derogated, and rejected by Wall Street as “un-American” and worse (try “Bogle’s Folly”)—has become our industry’s chief cornerstone. Index funds now account for more than one-third(!) of the assets of all U.S. equity mutual funds.
指数基金的胜利对公司治理具有更广泛的影响,其深远程度至少与对投资的影响相当。 如今,指数基金的主导地位否定了古老的“华尔街规则”——“如果你不喜欢管理层,就卖掉股票。” 一条新的“指数基金规则”正在浮现。 由于指数基金不能卖掉股票(如果某股票在指数中,无论发生什么,它都会留在基金中),新的口号必须变为:“如果你不喜欢管理层,就修理管理层。” 这对于每一家公司股票的永久投资者而言是一个不言而喻的真理。 尽管这一原则尚未得到遵守,但这个合理的准则迟早会深刻地改变金融美国与公司美国之间的关系,并且我热切地希望,最终会重新建立商业与社会之间的适当关系。
The triumph of the index fund has even broader implications for corporate governance, at least as profound as their implications for investing. Today, the dominance of index funds belies the old “Wall Street Rule”—“if you don’t like the management, sell the stock.” A new “Index Fund Rule” is emerging. Since index funds can’t sell the stock (if it’s in the index, it stays in the fund, no matter what), the new mantra must become, “if you don’t like the management, fix the management.” This is a truism for permanent investors in each corporation’s shares. While it is yet to be honored, that sound principle will, sooner or later, alter profoundly the relationship between Financial America and Corporate America, and ultimately, I fervently hope, re-establish a proper relationship between business and our society.
金融美国与公司美国 随着金融和投资的增长,我们的机构管理者现在对其客户投资组合中的公司拥有绝对的投票控制权。 仅共同基金行业就持有美国所有股票的约 32%。 它们的养老金管理人附属公司又持有总数的另外 20%。 合计起来,美国所有股权股份的 52% 由这些资金管理巨头持有。 是的,这就是绝对的投票控制权。
Financial America and Corporate America With the growth in finance and investment, our institutional managers now hold absolute voting control over the corporations in their clients’ portfolios. The mutual fund industry alone holds some 32 percent of all U.S. stocks. Their pension-manager affiliates hold another 20 percent of the total. All told, 52 percent of all U.S. equity shares are held by these money management giants. Yes, that is absolute voting control.
既然我们的机构资金管理者现在持有美国公司的控股权,我们生活在一个崭新且不同的世界。公司美国与金融美国之间的关系比以往任何时候都更加深入。随着金融与商业的相互依存关系越来越紧密,时代要求资金管理者在公司治理中发挥比以往更积极的作用。治理中的这一新因素将最终改变我们关于公司在我们社会中角色的观念……向着更好的方向。
Since our institutional money managers now hold the controlling interest in U.S. corporations, we are living in a new and different world. The relationship between Corporate America and Financial America is deeper than ever before. As the interdependence of finance and business grows closer, the times demand that the money managers play an ever more active role in corporate governance. This new factor in governance will ultimately change our ideas about the role of the corporation in our society . . . for the better.
诚然,金融公司与商业公司之间的默契联系一直存在。正如著名经济学家海曼·明斯基所指出的,“金融市场不仅响应商业领袖和个人投资者的利润驱动需求,也是金融公司逐利企业家精神的结果……由于金融与产业发展处于共生关系,金融演变在经济动态模式中扮演着关键角色。”但今天,这种联系变得更为强大。为什么?原因很简单,如前所述,金融美国控制着(或潜在地控制着)公司美国。
To be sure, a tacit link between financial firms and corporate businesses has always existed. As noted economist Hyman Minsky pointed out, “financial markets not only respond to profit-driven demands of business leaders and individual investors, but also as a result of the profit-seeking entrepreneurial spirit of financial firms . . . Since finance and industrial development are in a symbiotic relationship, financial evolution plays a crucial role in the dynamic patterns of the economy.” But today that link has gotten even more potent. Why? Simply because, as noted earlier, Financial America controls (or holds potential control) over Corporate America.
结果是我们前所未有的“双重代理社会”——公司首席执行官和董事是代理人,他们常常将自身利益置于股东利益之上,再加上机构资金管理者的首席执行官和董事,同样作为代理人,他们常常将自身利益置于有义务服务的基金股东(或养老金受益人)的利益之上。经济学家一直担忧这种渗透于我们社会的“代理问题”,可以说,亘古有之。但是,拥有两套强大的代理人,其经济利益如此频繁地与其管理层各自应对委托人承担的受托责任相冲突,这确实是“太阳底下无新事”的反面,堪称全新事物。
The result is our unprecedented “Double-Agency Society”—corporate CEOs and directors are agents who too often place their own interests ahead of the interests of their shareholders, coupled with CEOs and directors of institutional money managers, who, similarly, are agents who too often place their own interests ahead of the fund shareholders (or pension beneficiaries) whom they are duty bound to serve. Economists have been concerned about this “agency problem” that has permeated our society, well, forever. But to have two sets of powerful agents whose financial interests are so often at odds with the fiduciary duty that both sets of managements owe to their principals is indeed “something new under the sun.”
公司治理体系的失败 我们不要自欺欺人。我们的共同基金和其他机构资金管理者——我们的“生产者”——在服务于基金股东和养老金受益人——我们的“消费者”——的利益方面,存在根本性的失败。问题:这些基金经理究竟如何运用他们的权力?答案:非常吝啬。基金经理在公司治理问题上几乎没有表现出采取行动的意愿。事实上,共同基金行业曾反对一项拟议的美国证券交易委员会法规,该法规要求基金经理甚至向他们的基金股东披露其公司代理投票是如何投出的。(好消息是:他们的努力失败了。)
The Failure of the Corporate Governance System Let’s not kid ourselves. There are fundamental ways in which our mutual funds and other institutional money managers—our “producers”—have failed to serve the interests of fund shareholders and pension beneficiaries—our “consumers.” Question: how do these fund managers actually use their power? Answer: very sparingly. Fund managers have demonstrated little appetite for action on corporate governance issues. Indeed, the mutual fund industry fought a proposed SEC regulation that would require fund managers to even disclose to their fund shareholders how their corporate proxy votes were cast. (The good news: their effort failed.)
我来简要谈谈一些重要的公司治理问题,共同基金在这些问题上大多保持沉默:
· 高管薪酬。一个词:令人发指。企业首席执行官们拿到的薪酬似乎没有上限。一个重要的推手是,建议降薪的薪酬顾问公司在生意场上活不长。《纽约时报》最近一篇题为《高管薪酬:超级薪酬入侵》的文章指出,2013 年大型企业首席执行官薪酬的中位数为 1390 万美元(!),比 2012 年增长 9%。法国经济学家托马斯·皮凯蒂在其新著《21 世纪资本论》中指出,过去四十年美国收入不平等惊人加剧的原因中,三分之二要归因于“超级管理者”(他们作为一个群体,当然被证明是平庸的)所获得的暴涨的“超级薪酬”。
Let me touch briefly on some of the vital corporate governance issues on which mutual funds have been largely silent: · Executive compensation. One word: Appalling. Seemingly limitless amounts are paid to corporate CEOs. An important contributing factor is that compensation consultants that recommend pay cuts aren’t long in business. A recent New York Times article entitled “Executive Pay: Invasion of the Supersalaries” pointed out that the median compensation for CEOs of major corporations in 2013 was $13.9 million(!), a nine percent increase over 2012. In his new book, Capital in the 21st Century, French economist Thomas Piketty states that two-thirds of the staggering increase in America’s income inequality over the past four decades was the result of the skyrocketing “supersalaries” bestowed upon “supermanagers” (who as a group, of course, prove to be average).
· 会计准则。随着公司损益表日益变得利己且不透明,标普 500 指数成分公司的报告利润与公认会计原则(GAAP)下的报告利润之间的差距——在考虑失败商业创举和管理失误(委婉地称为“非经常性事件”)的负面影响之前——已高达整整 20%。这种对财务现实的惊人改善,靠的是幻象、财技手段和“粉饰门面”。
· Accounting standards. As corporate profit and loss statements become increasingly self-serving and opaque, the gap between reported earnings of the companies in the S&P 500 Index—before taking into account the negative impact of failed business ventures and management errors (euphemistically called “non-recurring events)—have been fully 20% higher than reported earnings under GAAP accounting principles. That amazing improvement over fiscal reality has been created by illusion, financial legerdemain, and “window dressing.”
· 企业的政治捐款。这个话题别提了!继 2011 年最高法院对“公民联合会案”做出糟糕裁决后,企业资金大量涌入我国的政治竞选活动——这些钱本属于股东,却被美国企业界送给了政客。那些股东理应有权决定自己的资产如何被花掉。2011 年,我在《纽约时报》上发表过一篇专栏文章,主张公司委托书声明中应包含一项决议,禁止政治捐款,除非经投票通过的股份达到至少 75% 批准此类政策。· 即将到来的退休危机。自 1980 年代开始,与退休规划相关的投资风险和长寿风险,大规模从雇主转嫁到了雇员身上。为了降低养老金成本,企业越来越多地用定额缴款型储蓄计划取代传统的定额给付型退休计划,如今定额缴款型计划已成为美国退休规划的主导形式。但多数员工缺乏成功管理自己投资所需的专业知识和经验。2012 年,《纽约时报》专栏作家乔·诺切拉写了一篇文章,描述了他那种高风险导向的退休计划如何亏损,加上后来的离婚,将他的退休账户消耗到根本不可能退休的地步。他总结道:“大多数人类缺乏成为优秀投资者的技能和情感韧性。把投资和退休绑在一起,结果成了灾难的配方。”
· Corporate political contributions. Don’t get me going on this one! In the wake of the ghastly 2011 Supreme Court decision in the Citizens United case, corporate money has poured into our nation’s political campaigns—money that belongs to the shareholders, but is handed-out to politicians by Corporate America. Those shareholders should have a say in how their assets are expended. In 2011, I wrote an op-ed for the New York Times arguing that corporate proxy statements should include a resolution precluding political contributions unless at least 75 percent of shares voted to approve such a policy.8 · The looming retirement crisis. Beginning in the 1980s, there has been a massive transfer of the investment risk and longevity risk associated with retirement planning from employers to employees. In order to reduce their pension costs, companies have increasingly replaced traditional Defined Benefit (DB) retirement plans with Defined Contribution (DC) thrift plans, which are now the dominant form of retirement planning in the U.S. But most workers lack the specialized knowledge and experience needed to successfully manage their own investments. In 2012, New York Times columnist Joe Nocera wrote a piece in which he described how the losses in his high-risk-oriented retirement plan, plus his later divorce, depleted his retirement account to the point where there is no way he can retire. He concluded, “most human beings lack the skill and emotional wherewithal to be good investors. Linking investing and retirement has turned out to be a recipe for disaster.”
我的老友兼邻居詹姆斯·麦基读了我的专栏文章后,在没有任何帮助的情况下,主动将那份决议插入强生公司的股东委托书。管理层反对,该决议未能通过。但吉姆今年仍在坚持他的工作。我相信,作为股东民主的先行者,它为社会服务的潜力巨大。
My longtime friend and neighbor, James Mackie, read my op-ed and, without any assistance, took it upon himself to have that resolution inserted into the proxy statement of Johnson & Johnson. Management opposed, and the resolution failed to pass. But Jim continues his work again this year. I believe that this harbinger of shareholder democracy has great potential to serve society.
· 董事提名。即便我们的资金管理人/代理人希望在为股东争取利益方面做正确的事——比如对过高的薪酬、退休计划、公司会计标准以及政治捐款问题采取行动——他们也很少拥有所需的代理投票权去这样做。没错,共同基金拥有提名公司董事的潜在权力,但实际上基本毫无作为。据我所知,没有哪个重要案例是共同基金提名董事候选人的。套用一句老话:“肉体的欲望强烈,但精神却不愿配合。”
· Nomination of directors. Even if our money manager/agents wanted to do the right thing in honoring the needs of the shareholders they represent by striking a blow at excessive compensation, retirement plans, corporate accounting standards, and political contributions, they rarely have the proxy access they need to do so. Yes, mutual funds have the latent power to nominate directors to corporate boards. But they do essentially nothing. I know of no significant example of a mutual fund nominating director candidates. To put a spin on an old idiom, “the flesh is strong, but the spirit is unwilling.”
“没有主人的资本主义必将失败”美国的机构资金管理者必须专注于持有那些能为其股份的拥有者创造长期内在价值的公司,而非仅仅关注其股份的租用者所追求的短期市场价格。唯有如此,美国企业才能继续成为我国增长与繁荣的主要引擎。然而,太多的资金管理者已经放弃了他们对长期投资者的责任。
“Capitalism without Owners Will Fail” America’s institutional money managers must focus on owning companies that create long-term intrinsic value for the owners of their shares, rather than short-term market prices for the renters of their shares. Only then can Corporate America remain the prime engine of our nation’s growth and prosperity. But too many of our money managers have abdicated their responsibilities to long-term investors.
机构股东服务公司(Institutional Shareholder Services)创始人罗伯特·A·G·蒙克斯在其 2011 年文章《捕获》中写道:“企业已经有效地捕获了美国——它的司法体系、它的政治制度、它的国家财富——却不必承担任何统治的责任。”他同样举出高管薪酬作为例证,将其形容为“冒烟的枪……一种集中权力的体现——企业权力集中在首席执行官手中,国家权力集中在公司手中。”这种权力必须受到遏制,公司与政府之间公平的平衡必须重新建立。这是一场艰难的战斗,需要耗费大量的时间和精力。
Robert A. G. Monks, founder of Institutional Shareholder Services, writes in his 2011 essay Capture that “corporations have effectively captured the United States: its judiciary, its political system, and its national wealth, without assuming any of the responsibilities of domination.” He too cites executive compensation, describing it as “the smoking gun . . . an expression of concentrated power—of enterprise power concentrated in the chief executive and of national power concentrated in corporations.” That power must be curbed, and the fair balance between the corporation and the government must be re-established. That is an uphill battle that will take a great deal of time and effort.
一项联邦受托责任标准
对于这个问题,我偏好的解决办法是,为所有管理“他人钱财”的人制定一项联邦受托责任标准。(既然我们的公司由各州特许成立,我们同样需要各州共同采纳的一项受托责任示范标准。)没错,1940 年的《投资公司法》中确实隐含了一项受托责任标准——用大白话说就是:“共同基金必须将股东利益置于其高管、董事、投资顾问和分销商的利益之上。”但现实并非如此。如今,受托责任和公司治理问题在大多数基金经理的优先事项清单上几乎垫底。9 掌控着美国企业界的金融机构如此消极,显然是不可接受的。杰出的纽约大学教授拉尔夫·戈莫里和理查德·塞拉对此表示赞同:“我们需要找到方法,引导公司的行为产生更好的社会结果……历史上,人们并非第一次怀疑,我们的政府究竟是人民的政府,还是由大公司组成、为大公司服务、受大公司控制的政府。”10 他们引用了西奥多·罗斯福 1901 年向国会提交的第一份年度咨文中的话:“大公司的存在,是因为我们的制度创立并保护了它们;因此,我们既有权利也有责任,确保它们与这些制度和谐共处。”
A Federal Standard of Fiduciary Duty My preferred solution to this issue is the creation of a federal standard of fiduciary duty for all of those who manage Other People’s Money. (Since our corporations are chartered by the states, we also need a model standard of fiduciary duty shared by those states.) Yes, there is an implied standard of fiduciary duty in the Investment Company Act of 1940—to paraphrase, “mutual funds must place the interests of their shareholders ahead of the interests of their officers, directors, investment advisers, and distributors.” But that’s just not happening. Today fiduciary duty and corporate governance issues are near the bottom of the priority list for most fund managers.9 Surely passivity by the financial institutions that control Corporate America is unacceptable. Distinguished NYU professors Ralph Gomory and Richard Sylla agree, “There is a need to find ways of inducing corporations to act in ways that produce better social outcomes . . . [this] is not the first time in history that people have wondered whether ours is a government of the people, or of, by, and for the corporations.”10 They cite Theodore Roosevelt’s first annual message to Congress in 1901: “Great corporations exist only because they are created and safeguarded by our institutions; and it is therefore our right and our duty to see that they work in harmony with those institutions.”
罗斯福在一个多世纪前说出了这些话,然而这类挑战如今仍然困扰着我们的社会。该怎么办?第一步是唤起公众意识。这正是我努力去做的——在我的书籍和演讲中,包括今晚对诸位所说的话里,让这些问题得以被看见。而且,虽然有一天我或许会放慢忙碌的脚步,但现在还不是松懈的时候,也不是消减我为建设一个更好的金融体系而怀有的热情的时候。在我自己的行业里,我算不上什么英雄,但正如很久以前就有人提醒过我那样,“先知在本乡是不受尊敬的。”(没错,《马可福音》第六章和《马太福音》第十三章,这是我最后一次引用圣经!)这是一项孤独的任务,但我与许多独立思考者找到了共同目标,包括我们国家许多(即便不是大多数)顶尖学者。
Roosevelt spoke those words more than a century ago, yet those kinds of challenges still plague our society today. What’s to be done? The first step is building public awareness. That’s what I’m striving to do—to shine light on these issues in my books and speeches, including my words to you this evening. And, while I may one day slow down my busy pace, now is not the moment to slacken my efforts nor to vitiate my passion for building a better financial system. I’m no hero in my own industry, but, as I was long ago warned, “a prophet is without honor in his own country.” (Yes, Mark 6 and Matthew 13, my final biblical reference!) It’s a lonely task, but I find common cause with many independent thinkers, including many, if not most, of our nation’s leading academics.
我就是这么做的。你能做什么?答案并不简单,因为如果你持有单只股票,你属于绝对少数,被那些大型资金管理公司的投票权完全压过。但如果你持有共同基金,那就拿出纸笔,给它们的首席执行官和独立董事写信,要求他们在公司治理问题上挺身而出。正是在我们庞大的共同基金中,将受托责任精神带入当今双重代理社会的战斗必须打响。
So that’s what I do. What can you do? The answer does not come easily, for if you own individual stocks, you are among a definite minority, being dwarfed by the voting power of those giant money managers. But if you own mutual funds, get out your pen and paper, and write to their CEOs and their independent directors, demanding that they step up to the plate on corporate governance issues. It is with our huge mutual funds that battle of bringing the spirit of fiduciary duty to today’s double-agency society must begin.
套用多丽丝·卡恩斯·古德温在她的畅销书《强势时代:罗斯福、塔夫脱与新闻业的黄金年代》中的说法,我希望今晚我的发言——作为变革即将来临的一个信号,贝莱德(美国最大的企业股票持有者——大约持有每家公司 7% 的股份)董事长兼首席执行官劳伦斯·D·芬克最近致信标普 500 指数所有 500 家公司的首席执行官,谴责对短期股价的执着。“[我们的]使命,”芬克写道,“是通过帮助客户实现长期投资目标来赢得他们的信任……我们同样担忧[资本市场短期需求的压力],并认为挑战这一趋势是我们共同的责任。”“美国企业”,《代达罗斯》,第 142 卷第 2 期,2013 年春季。
Paraphrasing Doris Kearns Goodwin’s words in her recent best-seller The Bully Pulpit: Theodore Roosevelt, William Howard Taft, and the Golden Age of Journalism, I hope that my remarks this evening In a sign of impending change, Laurence D. Fink, the Chairman and CEO of BlackRock (the nation’s largest holder of corporate stock—about 7% of every company—recently wrote to the CEOs of all 500 companies in the S&P 500 Index, condemning the focus on short-term stock prices. “[Our] mission,” Fink writes, “is to earn the trust of our clients by helping them meet their long-term investment goals. . . . We share those concerns [about the short-term demands of the capital markets], and believe it is our collective role to challenge that trend.” “The American Corporation,” Daedalus, 142 (2), Spring 2013.
“将引导你经历自己的探索过程,帮助你更好地理解需要怎样做才能召唤投资者去要求采取必要的行动,从而让我国的金融体系更接近其古老的理想。”
“will guide you through your own process of discovery toward a better understanding of what it takes to summon investors to demand the actions necessary to bringing the financial system of our nation closer to its ancient ideals.”
玛格丽特·米德说得更为简洁:“永远不要怀疑,一小群有思想、有担当的公民能够改变世界。事实上,这是世上唯一曾改变过世界的力量。”
Margaret Mead said it even more simply: “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.”
感谢各位今晚抽出时间前来参会。
Thank you for your attention, and for coming out this evening.