附录 · 原始资料与证据

全书证据附录

本附录说明全书的取证方法，并按年份编目本书精读的全部备忘录。

取证方法

A1 官方合集为主证据。 全书正文只使用 Oaktree 官方发布、可公开核验的备忘录原文，底本是《The Complete Collection · Memos from Howard Marks》（1990—2025，证据等级 A1）及官方 insights 存档。成书著作（《投资最重要的事》《周期》）只用于书目定位，不作为论点证据。
引语逐条原文核对。 每一处直接引语，都先在 corpus/en/masters/howard-marks/memos/ 的原文 txt 里 grep 核对，中文译文后括注英文原文（≤25 词）；未能在原文定位的表述不作引语处理。
digest 勘误机制：日期以正文实际日期为准。 语料文件头的 TITLE/YEAR/DATE 由机器切分生成，不可信；精读底稿 research/howard-marks/digest/shard-01..14.md 每片末尾设“元数据勘误”节，逐一记录一文多篇的切分错误与错标日期，正文一律采用勘误后的落款日期。本索引共收录 157 个切分文件；经正文核对，若干早期文件实为“一文多篇”，精读实际覆盖约 163 篇备忘录。

下表按年份列出全部 157 个篇目。标注“（年份推断）”的 26 篇，其年份由 digest 依正文内容判定、而非文件头显式给出；文件头原始日期不可作为该篇写作日期。

篇目编目（按年份）

1990（1 篇）

The Complete Collection（年份推断）

1991（1 篇）

First Quarter Performance

1992（4 篇）

Clients
The Value of Predictions, or Where’d All This Rain Come From?（年份推断）
Oaktree Clients and Friends（年份推断）
Will It Be Different This Time?（年份推断）

1997（2 篇）

Are You An Investor or a Speculator?
Who Knew?

1998（1 篇）

Genius Isn’t Enough (and Other Lessons from Long-Term Capital Management)

1999（1 篇）

How’s the Market?

2000（4 篇）

bubble.com
Irrational Exuberance（年份推断）
Investment Miscellany
We’re Not In 1999 Anymore, Toto（年份推断）

2001（5 篇）

Safety First . . . But Where?
What’s It All About, Alpha?
Notes from New York
What Lies Ahead?
You Can’t Predict. You Can Prepare.

2002（5 篇）

Learning From Enron
The Realist’s Creed
Quo Vadis?
Etorre’s Wisdom
Returns and How They Get That Way

2003（4 篇）

Whad’Ya Know?
What’s Going On?
The Most Important Thing
What’s Your Game Plan?

2004（7 篇）

Hey, Steward!!
Us and Them（年份推断）
The Happy Medium（年份推断）
Hedge Funds: A Case for Caution
Risk and Return Today
Oaktree at Ten（年份推断）
There They Go Again

2005（2 篇）

A Case in Point
Hindsight First, Please (or, What Were They Thinking?)

2006（7 篇）

Risk
It Is What It Is
Returns, Absolute Returns and Risk
You Can’t Eat IRR
Dare to Be Great
The New Paradigm
Pigweed

2007（6 篇）

The Race to the Bottom
Everyone Knows
It’s All Good（年份推断）
It’s All Good . . . Really?
Now It’s All Bad?
No Different This Time – The Lessons of ‘07

2008（12 篇）

Now What?
Whodunit
The Tide Goes Out
The Aviary（年份推断）
Doesn’t Make Sense
What Worries Me
Nobody Knows
Plan B
The Limits to Negativism
Volatility + Leverage = Dynamite
Tell Me I’m Wrong
I’d Rather Be Wrong

2009（4 篇）

The Long View
Will It Work?
So Much That’s False and Nutty
Touchstones

2010（5 篇）

Warning Flags
It’s Greek to Me
Hemlines
Open and Shut（年份推断）
All That Glitters

2011（7 篇）

On Regulation
How Quickly They Forget
Down to the Wire
What’s Behind the Downturn?
It’s All Very Taxing
What Can We Do For You?（年份推断）
Assessing Performance Records – A Case Study（年份推断）

2012（4 篇）

Déjà Vu All Over Again
It’s All a Big Mistake
On Uncertain Ground（年份推断）
A Fresh Start (Hopefully)

2013（5 篇）

Ditto
High Yield Bonds Today
The Outlook for Equities（年份推断）
The Role of Confidence
The Race Is On

2014（4 篇）

Getting Lucky
Dare to Be Great II
Risk Revisited
The Lessons of Oil

2015（4 篇）

Liquidity
Risk Revisited Again
It’s Not Easy
Inspiration from the World of Sports

2016（6 篇）

On the Couch
What Does the Market Know?
Economic Reality
Political Reality（年份推断）
Implications of the Election（年份推断）
Go Figure!

2017（4 篇）

Expert Opinion
Lines in the Sand
There They Go Again . . . Again
Yet Again?

2018（4 篇）

Latest Thinking
Investing Without People
The Seven Worst Words in the World
Political Reality Meets Economic Reality（年份推断）

2019（5 篇）

Growing the Pie
This Time It’s Different（年份推断）
On the Other Hand
Mysterious
Selling Out

2020（14 篇）

You Bet!
Nobody Knows II（年份推断）
Latest Update
Which Way Now?
Calibrating
Knowledge of the Future
Uncertainty
Uncertainty II
Not Enough
The Anatomy of a Rally
Time for Thinking（年份推断）
Coming into Focus
Something of Value（年份推断）
The Winds of Change

2021（2 篇）

2020 in Review
Thinking About Macro

2022（7 篇）

The Pendulum in International Affairs
Bull Market Rhymes
Conversation at Panmure House
I Beg to Differ
The Illusion of Knowledge
What Really Matters?
Sea Change

2023（6 篇）

Lessons from Silicon Valley Bank
Taking the Temperature
Fewer Losers, or More Winners?
Further Thoughts on Sea Change
Easy Money
Shall We Repeal the Laws of Economics?

2024（5 篇）

The Indispensability of Risk
The Impact of Debt
The Folly of Certainty（年份推断）
Mr. Market Miscalculates
Ruminating on Asset Allocation

2025（9 篇）

The Complete Collection (anthology preface)
On Bubble Watch
Gimme Credit
Nobody Knows (Yet Again)（年份推断）
More on Repealing the Laws of Economics
The Calculus of Value
A Look Under the Hood
Cockroaches in the Coal Mine
Is It a Bubble?（年份推断）

完整取得状态与来源等级见霍华德·马克斯资料覆盖。

本站正文为基于公开材料的独立编辑与研究归纳，不替代原始资料，也不构成投资建议。